MontgomeryCoWx wrote:GFS flip flopping again. It also has a CAT 5 ice storm a week and a half out...
C'mon y'all, don't go there now! That's like 2 weeks away. Maybe get nervous and stay home if it still shows that forecast on the 15th. 'Sides, that looks like it's gonna take place north of the Houston metro, anyway.
Well Kevin if you bothered to look hour 300 on that 18z run shows snow for the Houston area.
MontgomeryCoWx wrote:GFS flip flopping again. It also has a CAT 5 ice storm a week and a half out...
C'mon y'all, don't go there now! That's like 2 weeks away. Maybe get nervous and stay home if it still shows that forecast on the 15th. 'Sides, that looks like it's gonna take place north of the Houston metro, anyway.
Well Kevin if you bothered to look hour 300 on that 18z run shows snow for the Houston area.
snow doesn't cause near the harm that ice does, m'friend. Bring it on!
Well TCU had almost no chance of a comeback victory, but they did so never say never! LMBO...but I have to agree that far out is certainly dicey...I will say this though, I have seen a model sniff something like this out way far out and then move away from it only to eventually be right back on it...one never knows
BigThicket wrote:Well TCU had almost no chance of a comeback victory, but they did so never say never! LMBO...but I have to agree that far out is certainly dicey...I will say this though, I have seen a model sniff something like this out way far out and then move away from it only to eventually be right back on it...one never knows
BigThicket wrote:Well TCU had almost no chance of a comeback victory, but they did so never say never! LMBO...but I have to agree that far out is certainly dicey...I will say this though, I have seen a model sniff something like this out way far out and then move away from it only to eventually be right back on it...one never knows
The next shortwave currently over the Desert SW will bring increasing clouds this afternoon into tonight across Texas. Rain chances increase throughout the day on Wednesday with the chance of elevated storms and moderate rain Wednesday night into early Thursday before swinging NE in the fast progressive flow. Temperatures look to moderate Thursday afternoon into Friday before the next disturbance arrives Friday night into Saturday bringing another chance of rain.
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The overnight ensemble guidance continues to advertise a Western Ridge developing with a general Central and and Eastern trough organizing bringing below normal temperatures across most of the Eastern 2/3 of the United States and the Canadian Prairies.
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Another rather cold but mostly clear morning across SE TX. Warming temps through the week. For the short term, increasing rain chances begin tonight with the approach of a trough. Rain chances remain moderate to high Wednesday and Wednesday night with the development of a coastal trough. The sun to return Thursday afternoon and Friday before additional rain chance arrive ahead of a second trough as the noisy SW flow aloft continues.
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Active weather pattern of 2015 will carry over into early 2016.
Cold polar air mass is spilling into SE TX this morning from the NE as a glancing blow of high pressure slides into the OH valley. Clouds have increased behind the polar boundary this morning as moisture is starting to return above the surface ahead of a short wave over the SW US. This short wave will move eastward and across TX on Wednesday into Wednesday night. Favorable position of the upper level jet stream and increasing moisture will help to lower cloud decks today and onset of drizzle or light rainfall late tonight and early Wednesday is likely. Chances for showers increase through the day on Wednesday as moisture and lift increases and this activity will peak overnight Wednesday into early Thursday. With limited instability, expecting mainly showers with maybe an isolated thunderstorm. Rainfall amounts should average generally under an inch for most areas since moisture levels are not overly impressive.
Air mass behind this system will actually warm as the polar air mass is replaced with a warmer Pacific air mass. High temperatures will rise into the 60’s on Thursday and 70’s on Friday ahead of yet another fast moving short wave which will arrive Friday night into Saturday. Fast approach of this feature behind the Wednesday night system will allow little time for moisture return, so not sure rain chances Friday night/Saturday will be much more than 30/40%. A stronger shot of colder air will move into the region behind this short wave dropping temperatures back into the 30’s for lows and 50’s for highs by Sunday.
Yet another disturbance may approach the area early next week with cold air in place. Moisture appears limited at this time, but overnight lows Monday and Tuesday could be near freezing north of I-10, so this will be something to watch over the next few days.
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Some of the global models and their ensembles have been suggesting upper air amplification along the US west coast with high pressure ridging deep into the northern latitudes and some degree of high latitude blocking over the northern hemisphere over the next two weeks. There is some potential for an arctic air outbreak into the US at some point post Jan 12-15 time frame, but it remains unclear if this very cold air would head straight down the plains or be shunted more toward the eastern US.
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Had a bit more frost this morning...mainly lower to the ground but we did have a light freeze...I think out towards Srain the winds probably effected the frost machine.
I don't know how close I am on this but I give a 50% chance of an arctic air mass coming down the heart of the country in mid month range...I give it equal chances to slide into the Mississippi valley and we get a pretty solid back door front. I do not think this will be an east coast only Arctic blow. Jmo...I am sure some will disagree but that's why we have discussions and the fun of debates!
For those of you coming here for what the weather will be for the Houston Marathon on the 17th, welcome and it's way too early to know what the weather will be for that day. It's why I came to this forum a few years ago, after all, and I've lurked this forum ever since. Personally, I'm hoping for no higher than 55 degrees and overcast.
So, continue with your taper and just know that there will be weather on the 17th. Good luck and race your training.
snowman65 wrote:I sure would like to know...I am heading to N. Alabama Jan 14-18 to visit a friend. We are planning on fishing...lol
Ice fishing or ...
Seriously IMUO (In My Uneducated Opinion) I don't see how northern Alabama escapes the below-to much below normal airmass during that period. Other thing that would prevent it would be a screaming Pacific jet shunting the cold air to the Great Lakes and Northeast. Whether the large trough sets up over the central or eastern US ... that cold air will plunge south into the land of Lynyrd Skynyrd. Dress warmly!
snowman65 wrote:I sure would like to know...I am heading to N. Alabama Jan 14-18 to visit a friend. We are planning on fishing...lol
Ice fishing or ...
Seriously IMUO (In My Uneducated Opinion) I don't see how northern Alabama escapes the below-to much below normal airmass during that period. Other thing that would prevent it would be a screaming Pacific jet shunting the cold air to the Great Lakes and Northeast. Whether the large trough sets up over the central or eastern US ... that cold air will plunge south into the land of Lynyrd Skynyrd. Dress warmly!
As of right now, there are no forecasts yet that latch on to the arctic blast. The temps look bearable right now. I've never been ice fishing, and have no desire to do so....lol
