January 2016: Mardi Gras WX Outlook

[srainhoutx]

A couple of things we will need to monitor, particularly when we get into the next week timeframe. The Teleconnection Indices and the MJO will likely be the main drivers of our sensible weather. The AO continues to drop toward a strongly negative phase (possibly nearing-3) next week and maybe even nearing -4. The PNA continues to indicate it will indeed remain positive which is one of the indicators building the strong Western Ridge well into the Arctic. The MJO ensemble forecasts just updated and virtually all the reliable guidance indicates the Madden- Julian Oscillation will indeed enter Phase 8 which moves the convection currently SSW of Hawaii in our general direction. While the various shortwaves embedded in the sub tropical jet as well as the Polar jet stream will be difficult to determine beyond 3 to 5 days, the Hemispheric pattern remains conducive for an active and potentially chilly pattern ahead particularly along and East of the Continental Divide in the Extended and Longer Range.

[srainhoutx]

Looks like the 12Z ECMWF is suggesting the strong front will arrive late on Saturday with a disturbance tracking SE in the NW flow approaching Sunday into Monday after the cold air is in place. Areas mainly along and N of I-20 may even have a shot of light wintry mischief, if that model is correct possibly extending into the Hill Country. Still a ways out, so expect changes.

[tireman4]

For those of you coming here for what the weather will be for the Houston Marathon on the 17th, welcome and it's way too early to know what the weather will be for that day. It's why I came to this forum a few years ago, after all, and I've lurked this forum ever since. Personally, I'm hoping for no higher than 55 degrees and overcast.

So, continue with your taper and just know that there will be weather on the 17th. Good luck and race your training.

Good luck Oz. I know you will do well. Your training is going well.

[srainhoutx]

Updated Climate Prediction Center Day 8+ Analogs and Day 6 to 10 Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks.

[snowman65]

thats not bad at all...for me, anyway.

[Portastorm]

thats not bad at all...for me, anyway.

Just for grins I checked out the temperatures on the 12z GFS for Decatur, Alabama (north Alabama) for that period you will be there. I see highs on Jan. 14-15 around 40 degrees with lows in the mid 20s. Temps then warm up a bit with high temps around 50 and lows in upper 30s. FWIW.

[Ounce]

For those of you coming here for what the weather will be for the Houston Marathon on the 17th, welcome and it's way too early to know what the weather will be for that day. It's why I came to this forum a few years ago, after all, and I've lurked this forum ever since. Personally, I'm hoping for no higher than 55 degrees and overcast.

So, continue with your taper and just know that there will be weather on the 17th. Good luck and race your training.

Good luck Oz. I know you will do well. Your training is going well.

Thanks, O great Moderator! I hope you're still plugging along.

[snowman65]

thats not bad at all...for me, anyway.

Just for grins I checked out the temperatures on the 12z GFS for Decatur, Alabama (north Alabama) for that period you will be there. I see highs on Jan. 14-15 around 40 degrees with lows in the mid 20s. Temps then warm up a bit with high temps around 50 and lows in upper 30s. FWIW.

thanks! i fly in 14th morning so it looks managable through my stay, if it holds.

[BlueJay]

Apart from just never being warm in winter, my disdain for unusually cold temperatures is what will happen to my plants. Thus far, I have found that my potted hibiscus have been able to live through the 34F morning temperature(s) that we have experienced in the last few days.
That is a good thing!

[Kevin Queen]

Some of the global models and their ensembles have been suggesting upper air amplification along the US west coast with high pressure ridging deep into the northern latitudes and some degree of high latitude blocking over the northern hemisphere over the next two weeks. There is some potential for an arctic air outbreak into the US at some point post Jan 12-15 time frame, but it remains unclear if this very cold air would head straight down the plains or be shunted more toward the eastern US.

I think Joe Bastardi's betting on the "very cold air" being shunted more toward the eastern U.S. I noticed the GFS seeming to hint at a nor'easter in that region, too.


BTW: I kinda like my bad weather with lots & LOTS of lightning, srainhoutex. How do the prospects look for lightning production in this system, hm?

[BigThicket]

Some of the global models and their ensembles have been suggesting upper air amplification along the US west coast with high pressure ridging deep into the northern latitudes and some degree of high latitude blocking over the northern hemisphere over the next two weeks. There is some potential for an arctic air outbreak into the US at some point post Jan 12-15 time frame, but it remains unclear if this very cold air would head straight down the plains or be shunted more toward the eastern US.

I think Joe Bastardi's betting on the "very cold air" being shunted more toward the eastern U.S. I noticed the GFS seeming to hint at a nor'easter in that region, too.


BTW: I kinda like my bad weather with lots & LOTS of lightning, srainhoutex. How do the prospects look for lightning
production in this system, hm?

***Bastardi is always wanting the cold to go EAST...he lives for a good nor'easter! True cold cold Arctic air is heavy and is shallow and does not shunt easily. Just hard for a jet to effect a 5000 ft column of air heading south when the damn breaks. I may be way off and if I am than my apologies.

[DoctorMu]

GFS delays the real cold a few days in Neverland and posits a Southern snow event:

[Kevin Queen]

GFS delays the real cold a few days in Neverland and posits a Southern snow event:

Uh, I ain't readin' that too well. Where's the snow?

[snowman65]

that would be very interesting for my trip to N. Alabama....hhmmm

[Kevin Queen]

that would be very interesting for my trip to N. Alabama....hhmmm

I see it's all concentrated in NE Texas. They can have all of that they want, far as I'm concerned!

[Kevin Queen]

Some of the global models and their ensembles have been suggesting upper air amplification along the US west coast with high pressure ridging deep into the northern latitudes and some degree of high latitude blocking over the northern hemisphere over the next two weeks. There is some potential for an arctic air outbreak into the US at some point post Jan 12-15 time frame, but it remains unclear if this very cold air would head straight down the plains or be shunted more toward the eastern US.

I think Joe Bastardi's betting on the "very cold air" being shunted more toward the eastern U.S. I noticed the GFS seeming to hint at a nor'easter in that region, too.


BTW: I kinda like my bad weather with lots & LOTS of lightning, srainhoutex. How do the prospects look for lightning
production in this system, hm?

***Bastardi is always wanting the cold to go EAST...he lives for a good nor'easter! True cold cold Arctic air is heavy and is shallow and does not shunt easily. Just hard for a jet to effect a 5000 ft column of air heading south when the damn breaks. I may be way off and if I am than my apologies.

I live for a good nor'easter, too. LOL!

[DoctorMu]

that would be very interesting for my trip to N. Alabama....hhmmm

Band - NE Texas through NC. That's long, long way out...

[Kevin Queen]

that would be very interesting for my trip to N. Alabama....hhmmm

Band - NE Texas through NC. That's long, long way out...

So don't get your hopes up, snowman65.

[srainhoutx]

An active weather pattern is ahead for the.next several days as a series of Pacific storms quickly march East across our region. The first disturbance arrives today into early Thursday as a coastal trough and a warm front lift North from S Texas bringing rounds of light to moderate rainfall and some elevated storms across mainly SE, East Texas and Western Louisiana. A brief break appears likely Thursday afternoon and early Friday before yet another strong disturbance arrives bringing another chance of rainfall with additional elevated thunderstorms.

As of this morning it appears a strong cold front arrives Saturday dropping temperatures from the warm 70"s to the 40's inland to near 50 along the Coast for highs. Sunday night into early Monday could bring freezing temperatures mainly along and N of HYW 105 as yet another storm system approaches. Periods of light precipitation look to develop Sunday night into Monday as another Coastal trough develops in response to this approaching shortwave upper trough. Depending on the track and available lift as well as how cold and if the column can saturate, there is some potential of a wintry mix mainly across portions of North Central Texas possibly extending into Eastern areas of the Hill Country early Monday morning. There is a lot of uncertainty in the sensible weekend/early next week forecast, so stay tuned for further fine tuning as the weekend approaches.

[Katdaddy]

Take your umbrella this morning. Increasing rain chances today as a warm front move move inland across SE TX and shortwave trough moves across the area tonight. Brief clearing skies tomorrow but increasing rain chances return Friday and Friday night as another shortwave trough moves across SE TX. Highs in the 70s Thursday and Friday before colder air returns for the weekend.