January 2016: Mardi Gras WX Outlook

[ticka1]

The 0z European model should it verify would lay down 3" of snow across all of Travis County and the metro Austin area late next weekend. Higher snow amounts in the central and southern Hill Country. Wow!

Does it show any for SE Texas?

[BigThicket]

30 degrees here my Casa and at nearest weather station which resides at the Big Thicket visitor center

[BigThicket]

The 0z European model should it verify would lay down 3" of snow across all of Travis County and the metro Austin area late next weekend. Higher snow amounts in the central and southern Hill Country. Wow!

Does it show any for SE Texas?[/quote

Probably be mixed (pink)...lol

[jasons2k]

IAH reached 32F recording the first freeze of the Season.

Yep and no freeze warning....

[cperk]

My low was 31.5 degrees and a moderate frost.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

I hope the Euro OP materializes.... I need some Winter down here!!

[Portastorm]

The 0z European model should it verify would lay down 3" of snow across all of Travis County and the metro Austin area late next weekend. Higher snow amounts in the central and southern Hill Country. Wow!

Does it show any for SE Texas?

As a matter of fact, yes! Trace to 1" amounts and more to the southwest of Houston along the coast.

Well, we can dream, can't we?!

[unome]

some info on frost/freeze warning criteria & earlier freezes this season:

from http://www.srh.noaa.gov/hgx/?n=freeze_info

Freeze Products

Freeze Watch: Potential for freezing conditions in the next 24 to 48 hrs.

Freeze Warning: Issued for the first freeze of the year with lows ≤ 32°F. Freeze warnings are only reissued for counties that did not experience a freeze yet. Can also be reissued if late season freeze is expected (after March 15th).

Hard Freeze Warning: Issued for a freeze defined locally by low temperatures ≤ 24°F for two hours or more.


from Nov AFD: http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/s ... clnk&gl=us

MIN TEMPS ON MONDAY MORNING SHOULD BE COLDER IN
THE LOW 30S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
AREA. MOST OF THE AREA HAS A REALLY GOOD CHANCE AT A FREEZE SO
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR A FREEZE WATCH. RIGHT NOW BEST ODDS OF A
FREEZE WILL LIKELY BE NORTH OF I-10 LINE BUT COULD BE SOME OTHER
RURAL OUTLYING AREAS THAT REACH FREEZING CLOSER TO THE COAST.


from: https://twitter.com/NWSHouston/status/6 ... 4637605888

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CUfndfEVEAAh9BV.png

[brooksgarner]

I found this reminder helpful -- especially considering model output for snow potential in Texas early next week...

https://twitter.com/tropicaltidbits/sta ... 7060417536

Around southeast Texas, rarely does it start as snow and end as snow: there's usually a period of sleet/freezing rain or mixing.

Fingers crossed that we'll see some snow before spring arrives in a few short months.

[snowman65]

Well it looks like I may escape and COLD weather on my trip to N. Alabama this coming weekend and will get to e,joy some outdoor activities afterall.....nice!

[srainhoutx]

Well it looks like I may escape and COLD weather on my trip to N. Alabama this coming weekend and will get to e,joy some outdoor activities afterall.....nice!

Yeah, the 12Z ECMWF looks nice and toasty across N. Alabama...

[cperk]

srainhoutx is the Euro showing any wintry weather for our part of SE Texas.

[srainhoutx]

srainhoutx is the Euro showing any wintry weather for our part of SE Texas.

Way too soon to get into the finer details with the current pattern for a week out. There are way too many moving parts creating a tremendous amount of volatility for the models to accurate capture across the Pacific and the Northern stream as well as the sub tropical jet. Let's give this a few days to work its self out before biting off on any given solution or wintry weather potential anywhere across our Region. It looks like rain mid week particularly along the Coastal tier of Counties. Does that help?

[cperk]

srainhoutx is the Euro showing any wintry weather for our part of SE Texas.

Way too soon to get into the finer details with the current pattern for a week out. There are way too many moving parts creating a tremendous amount of volatility for the models to accurate capture across the Pacific and the Northern stream as well as the sub tropical jet. Let's give this a few days to work its self out before biting off on any given solution or wintry weather potential anywhere across our Region. It looks like rain mid week particularly along the Coastal tier of Counties. Does that help?

Patience,i get it, thanks srainhoutx.

[srainhoutx]

The Afternoon Updated Climate Prediction Center Day 8+ Analogs and Day 6 to 10 Outlook/Discussion...

PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EST MON JANUARY 11 2016

6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JAN 17 - 21 2016

TODAY'S DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PREDICTED 500-HPA
CIRCULATION PATTERN ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST DOMAIN. THE OFFICIAL BLENDED
HEIGHT PATTERN FEATURES A HIGH AMPLITUDE FLOW PATTERN, CHARACTERIZED BY A
FULL-LATITUDE RIDGE CENTERED OVER EASTERN ALASKA AND WESTERN NORTH AMERICA, AND
A TROUGH CENTERED OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. ANOTHER TROUGH IS ALSO FORECAST
OVER THE ALEUTIANS. THE ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI DIAGRAMS INDICATE LOW TO MODERATE
SPREAD ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST DOMAIN. TODAY'S MANUAL 500-HPA
HEIGHT BLEND IS COMPOSED PRIMARILY OF THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS, BASED
LARGELY ON CONSIDERATIONS OF RECENT SKILL AND ON ANALOG CORRELATIONS, WHICH
MEASURE HOW CLOSELY THE MODEL SOLUTIONS RESEMBLE CASES THAT HAVE OCCURRED IN
THE PAST.

ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED IN SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ALASKA, AND OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS, ASSOCIATED WITH ONSHORE FLOW. BELOW-NORMAL HEIGHTS ENHANCE
PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF THE EASTERN CONUS.

ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR THE WEST COAST, THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL GREAT BASIN, THE NORTHER AND CENTRAL ROCKIES, THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS, AS WELL AS SOUTHERN FLORIDA. THIS IS DUE TO THE EXPECTED MEAN POSITIONS
OF THE STORM TRACK AND JET STREAM. BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR
MOST OF THE EASTERN CONUS AND ALASKA. THIS IS DUE TO FACTORS SUCH AS 500-HPA
RIDGING (ALASKA), AND THE EXPECTED STORM TRACK DURING THIS TIME PERIOD (EASTERN
CONUS). MOST MODELS ALSO PREDICT BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR SOUTHERN
ARIZONA AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO.

TODAY'S OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 10% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, 20% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 20%
OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 20% OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL
0Z ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 8, 10% OF YESTERDAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z ECMWF CENTERED ON
DAY 7, AND 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE-AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS, AND GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TOOLS.

[snowman65]

Well it looks like I may escape and COLD weather on my trip to N. Alabama this coming weekend and will get to e,joy some outdoor activities afterall.....nice!

Yeah, the 12Z ECMWF looks nice and toasty across N. Alabama...

I must have been looking at our forecast.....lol....I guess that's not too bad...bet I could kick a 27 yd field goal in it...LOL

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z Euro Ensemble Mean looks like a good pattern to me. There are 53 individual members if I recall correctly and when you see a near 1040 High near Iowa ridging SSW into Texas with a trough overhead, that tends to favor chilly and potentially unsettled weather pattern in mid January for our Region. We will see.

[redneckweather]

srainhoutx is the Euro showing any wintry weather for our part of SE Texas.

Way too soon to get into the finer details with the current pattern for a week out. There are way too many moving parts creating a tremendous amount of volatility for the models to accurate capture across the Pacific and the Northern stream as well as the sub tropical jet. Let's give this a few days to work its self out before biting off on any given solution or wintry weather potential anywhere across our Region. It looks like rain mid week particularly along the Coastal tier of Counties. Does that help?

What srain meant to say in short was...NO.

[jasons2k]

some info on frost/freeze warning criteria & earlier freezes this season:

from http://www.srh.noaa.gov/hgx/?n=freeze_info

Freeze Products

Freeze Watch: Potential for freezing conditions in the next 24 to 48 hrs.

Freeze Warning: Issued for the first freeze of the year with lows ≤ 32°F. Freeze warnings are only reissued for counties that did not experience a freeze yet. Can also be reissued if late season freeze is expected (after March 15th).

Hard Freeze Warning: Issued for a freeze defined locally by low temperatures ≤ 24°F for two hours or more.


from Nov AFD: http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/s ... clnk&gl=us

MIN TEMPS ON MONDAY MORNING SHOULD BE COLDER IN
THE LOW 30S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
AREA. MOST OF THE AREA HAS A REALLY GOOD CHANCE AT A FREEZE SO
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR A FREEZE WATCH. RIGHT NOW BEST ODDS OF A
FREEZE WILL LIKELY BE NORTH OF I-10 LINE BUT COULD BE SOME OTHER
RURAL OUTLYING AREAS THAT REACH FREEZING CLOSER TO THE COAST.


from: https://twitter.com/NWSHouston/status/6 ... 4637605888

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CUfndfEVEAAh9BV.png

Yes, they failed to issue one then...(except if I recall they issued a last minute warning for some N/NE counties in the middle of the night, like that does any good except for them to score better on some validation spreadsheet that no farmer or gardener would ever care about! This is the kind of senseless bureaucratic BS that JB rails against...anyway)...and they failed to issue one last night.

They miss the boat on this year after year, and I bring it up every year. I just don't understand it. The job of the NWS is to warn the public, not CYA!! I really respect the great job they mostly do, but this is just ridiculous.

What good does it do to issue a freeze warning at 4 or 5AM? It's good for absolutely nothing but forecast verification and it's nothing more than cheating!

[unome]

from the Nov forum:

"Re: November 2015: Light Freeze/Tracking Thanksgiving Storm

Post by srainhoutx » Sun Nov 22, 2015 3:19 pm
Freeze Warning update from Jeff:

NWS has issued a Freeze Warning for along mainly along and NW of US 59 from midnight tonight until 800am Monday.

Surface high pressure will continue to result in clear skies and decreasing winds this evening which will go calm shortly after sunset. Dewpoints in the mid to upper 20’s and calm winds will lead to excellent cooling conditions tonight with temperatures falling toward the dewpoints. Wet grounds will result in some dewpoint rise overnight…toward the 30-32 range…but remain cold enough for a light freeze for many areas. Since this is the first freeze of the season…a freeze warning is required. Tender vegetation should be protected as this will effectively end the growing season NW of US 59.

Lows tonight will range from 29-32 in the freeze warning area including NW Harris County from Katy to Kingwood. Typical colder locations such as Conroe may fall into the 27-29 degree range. While not under the official freeze warning…the typical cold locations from Bay City to Angleton may hit freezing briefing early Monday morning."