February 2016: Quiet Warm Weather To End The Month

[jojotheidiotclown]

I don't get people that want cold weather living in the south. That why I stayed down here. Screw the cold and snow. Give me the heat. The cold stuff is for yankees.

[Ptarmigan]

Yeah! Can't wait for it to warm up!

Some people just do not like cold, unless the cold brings snow to the area. That group would include me.

I don't get people that want cold weather living in the south. That why I stayed down here. Screw the cold and snow. Give me the heat. The cold stuff is for yankees.

Heat is for summer and stays in the summer. Winter is for cold. Besides it reduces mosquitoes.

[Texaspirate11]

Yeah! Can't wait for it to warm up!

Some people just do not like cold, unless the cold brings snow to the area. That group would include me.

I don't get people that want cold weather living in the south. That why I stayed down here. Screw the cold and snow. Give me the heat. The cold stuff is for yankees.

Heat is for summer and stays in the summer. Winter is for cold. Besides it reduces mosquitoes.

Bring on the heat - we already had December/January....enough for me.

[srainhoutx]

Showers and a few thunderstorms are looking likely later into Monday as a frontal boundary sags South and pulls up stationary along or near the I-10 Corridor. 1 to 2 inches of slow and steady beneficial rain is looking realistic N of I-10 with some isolated higher amounts possible where training showers and storms develop. Closer to the Coast, rainfall amounts look much lower if the guidance is correct.

[srainhoutx]

Morning briefing from Jeff:

Upper air pattern shift will usher in the best chance for rainfall in a long time over portions of SE TX over the next 24 hours.

Upper level flow has transitions from dry NW to more zonal (west to east) allowing a series of upper level disturbances to approach and move into the region today and tonight. At the surface a weak frontal boundary extending from north of Dallas to W TX will sag southward today and interact with pooling moisture levels (PWS of 1.3-1.5 inches) and the upper level disturbances aloft to produce a period of showers across portions of SE TX. Expect the frontal boundary to stall over the northern or central portion of SE TX late tonight or on Monday with the best rain chances being confined to the boundary and northward. Upper level ridging over the Gulf of Mexico may continue its hold over the coastal counties keeping rain chances very low along the coast. There appears to be a fairly strong gradient in rainfall totals from south to north over the area with areas along and north of a Columbus to Livingston line likely to experience 1-2 inches of rainfall with higher isolated totals where cells train. Near the coast rainfall amounts at least through Monday may be less than .25 of an inch…with better chances coming Tuesday evening.

Stalled boundary (likely near US 59 on Monday) will return northward as a warm front Monday afternoon as a strong short wave trough moves toward the southern plains. Strong dynamics aloft will force a surface low pressure system to form over NW TX early Tuesday and track eastward Tuesday into Tuesday night. This will result in a strong cold front blasting across the area Tuesday evening. Moisture looks just enough and when coupled with the strong lift a quick round of showers and thunderstorms appears likely. Some of the storms could be strong or even marginally severe with hail.

Big story behind the Tuesday evening cold front will be strong offshore winds of 30-40mph Tuesday night and a return to more normal temperatures for this time of year. Lows will fall into the 30’s-40’s for the rest of the week with highs in the 60’s.

[BlueJay]

"Big story behind the Tuesday evening cold front will be strong offshore winds of 30-40mph Tuesday night and a return to more normal temperatures for this time of year. Lows will fall into the 30’s-40’s for the rest of the week with highs in the 60’s."

I didn't think winter was over yet.

[jasons2k]

There's no threat of a freeze, so I think we're good. Earlier last week (Mon. night @ 10PM?), Frank B. said he didn't see any more freezes in the modeling through the first week of March and so winter was done.

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z Euro suggests it certainly will not feel warm behind the front. I will be flying to Southern California tomorrow afternoon so other than a potential Marine effect along San Diego Harbor, it should be a quiet weather week for my trip.

[jasons2k]

I'm sure it will get chilly, but that's why spring is spring and not summer. It's a season of transition with ups and downs.

I put down my pre-emergent herbicide and fertilizer today (tip: go with Nitro-Phos, not the stuff from the big box stores stuffed with fillers). I probably should have done it a few weeks ago. The growing season appears to be in full swing.

Edited: Another tip - don't use Weed & Feed products. They are bad news for your trees, shrubs, and the long-term health of your lawn. Go with a pre-emergent herbicide instead. They work differently (prevent seed germination) and are not as toxic.

[Katdaddy]

A cloudy warm afternoon in progress with very light rain across N portions of SE TX and most of the rain not reaching the ground. The weather will be more interesting early next week. Disturbances ahead of a slow moving cool front look to give areas N of I-10 some heavy rains and training late tonight and Monday with some areas seeing more than 3" totals. Not much rain along the coast with first disturbance. A second stronger disturbance will bring a severe weather threat for SE TX Monday night through mid day Tuesday. By Tuesday afternoon the storms will push SE away from SE TX followed by very strong NW winds of 30-40MPH behind the cold front. Temps will drop back to normal temps for this time of year behind the cold front.

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING FRONT
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. 1 TO 3 INCHES OF
RAIN IS POSSIBLE GENERALLY NORTH OF A COLUMBUS TO LIVINGSTON LINE
WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OVER 3 INCHES POSSIBLE WHERE TRAINING CELLS
OCCUR. THE VAST MAJORITY OF RAIN WILL BE SPREAD OUT OVER SEVERAL
HOURS OVER DRY GROUND WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THE FLOOD THREAT. MINOR
STREET FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE HEAVIER TRAINING CELLS SET
UP HOWEVER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

RAINFALL WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF LATE MONDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON.

A MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

WIND ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED LATE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

[DoctorMu]

Yeah! Can't wait for it to warm up!

Some people just do not like cold, unless the cold brings snow to the area. That group would include me.

I don't get people that want cold weather living in the south. That why I stayed down here. Screw the cold and snow. Give me the heat. The cold stuff is for yankees.

Heat is for summer and stays in the summer. Winter is for cold. Besides it reduces mosquitoes.

Yeah - I noticed some bees out today and mosquitos wandering around this week. Not a good sign in February for insect and zika season. A few healthy hard freezes can work wonders. We've been bereft this winter.

[Katdaddy]

Steady well needed rains occurring to the N and W of Houston this morning. The rain may drift SE before decreasing. A strong storm system and associated low will begin moving across S and SW TX tonight. The SPC has a marginal risk area across SW TX with a slight risk around the Del Rio area. This area will shift E for Tuesday with most of SE TX being in a slight risk area. All modes of severe weather will be possible. A significant severe weather event is likely to unfold along the N Gulf Coast where an enhanced risk area has been issued by the SPC. This includes S LA, S MS, S AL, and NW FL. If you have friends and family in those areas, they need to be weather aware Tuesday and Tuesday night.

[srainhoutx]

Morning briefing from Jeff:

Band of moderate to at times heavy rainfall moving across SE TX early this morning in combination with a weak frontal boundary and upper level short wave.

Rainfall amounts this morning have averaged 1.0-2.5 inches from northern Polk Co to Washington Co. with lesser amounts south of this band. Overall radar trend has been decreasing with time as the activity is shifting southward, but expect a .25 to .75 of an inch of rainfall along and south of I-10 as the band progresses toward the coast.

Attention quickly turns to the deepening short wave trough over the north-central Rockies dropping rapidly toward TX currently. This feature will undergo strong deepening today as it moves SE with strong height falls arriving into NW TX late this afternoon. Surface low pressure will rapidly develop over the TX Hill Country late this afternoon resulting in the ill defined frontal boundary over SE TX to lift northward as a warm front. Impressive deepening of the short wave and surface low tonight over TX will lead to a large increase in the wind fields over the region. Moisture being pushed southward currently, will rapidly return after dark this evening as a 35-40kt low level jet develops. Low level winds become backed some on Tuesday morning with the track on the deepening surface low toward/north of College Station and this may increase low level shear values. Think enough parameters will be in place for strong and severe thunderstorms from early Tuesday morning (100-300am) until around noon on Tuesday. Main threats will be large hail and damaging winds, but cannot rule out isolated tornadoes especially near the warm front which may be draped across our northern set of counties. Think the wind damage threat is likely the highest threat given 100kts of mid level flow plowing into the backside of the storm system. Will need to update this threat again this afternoon.

Surface cyclone really bombs out over N LA late Tuesday with surface pressures falling all the way down into the 991-995mb range. Very strong low level jet will develop on the backside of the surface low over TX and expecting very strong winds to mix to the surface Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night. Looking at 45-50mph right off the surface and expect sustained 30-40mph by Tuesday afternoon over the region with gusts 45mph+. Will need wind advisories and could flirt with high wind warning criteria across our western counties where the sun may peak out more allowing stronger winds aloft to mix toward the surface. Gale Watch all coastal waters starting Tuesday evening and this will need to be upgraded to a Gale Warning. Lucky wetting rains today and again tomorrow morning should negate any fire weather concerns.

Day 2 (Tuesday) SPC Severe Weather Outlook:

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[unome]

Tue morning rush traffic weather looks ugly, but our florae are loving this rain !

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/ba ... me=Wed_00Z

[srainhoutx]

Very impressive shortwave digging SE across the Colorado Rockies this morning. Water vapor imagery clearly shows this feature and with a bombing surface low organizing very near our area, there is certainly a lot of weather issues ahead late tonight into tomorrow.

The longer range guidance continues to advertise a very active Spring like weather pattern developing as we turn the Calendar to March. We will need to monitor things weather wise as February ends and March begins for the potential of strong storms and heavy rainfall potential as the pattern transitions from boring to rather active for our Region.

[wxman57]

I was doing some yard work yesterday and noticed that my azaleas are blooming - in February! I've never seen them bloom so early before. I do think we've seen our last freeze (central Houston and south).

Note that freezing temps DO NOT kill mosquitoes. Mosquitoes simply are dormant in colder weather. Alaska/northern Canada have a lot more of a mosquito problem than we do. No, the only good use for cold is snow - and that's not happening this winter. Bring on the spring/summer!

[ticka1]

Already started preparing for planting my garden. Prime days to plant is around March 15-18th. Just hopping we don't start hitting 100 degrees in April and last for 7-8 months.

Several of my trees are blooming already - they weren't dormant very long this year. Probably 8-10 weeks this year.

[jasons2k]

The azalea bushes along the Waterway started blooming last week. And they are the old-fashioned variety too.

[wxman57]

Looks like it's going to be quite windy across Houston tomorrow afternoon/evening. Winds 25-30 mph with gusts over 40 mph likely. No extremely cold temps post-frontal, only mid 40s to upper 50s Wednesday and low 40s to 60s on Thursday.

[Houstonkid]

I rolled the dice, tomatoes and peppers went in the ground yesterday. Cukes are all 2" tall. I am hoping this wind does not whip them to death tomorrow!