April 2016 Recap: Regional Flood/Severe Weather

[srainhoutx]

One thing that HGX was looking at early this morning is the possibility of potential back building from storms off the Coast of SW Louisiana. Not sure that is still a concern with the day shift.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
816 AM CDT THU APR 21 2016

MADISON TX-TRINITY TX-BURLESON TX-SAN JACINTO TX-WALKER TX-WALLER TX-
POLK TX-WASHINGTON TX-HARRIS TX-WHARTON TX-FORT BEND TX-
MONTGOMERY TX-BRAZOS TX-GRIMES TX-AUSTIN TX-COLORADO TX-HOUSTON TX-
816 AM CDT THU APR 21 2016

...LINE OF STORMS MOVING INTO THE AREA...

AT 814 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR REESE TO 6 MILES SOUTH OF CROCKETT TO 8
MILES SOUTHEAST OF MADISONVILLE TO NEAR MILLICAN TO NEAR PALMETO.
MOVEMENT WAS SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. BRIEF
HEAVY RAIN WITH 1/2 TO 3/4 INCH ACCUMULATIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE LINE.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CONROE...HUNTSVILLE...BRENHAM...TOMBALL...NAVASOTA...CROCKETT...SEALY...
HEMPSTEAD...WILLIS...PRAIRIE VIEW...BROOKSHIRE...BELLVILLE...COLUMBUS...
EAGLE LAKE...PINEHURST...THE WOODLANDS...APPLE SPRINGS...WASHINGTON...
HOCKLEY AND OAK RIDGE NORTH.

[srainhoutx]

Thursday morning briefing from Jeff:

Line of thunderstorms approaching from the NW this morning with a second cluster moving toward the west from the SW LA coast.

Line off to our NW this morning does look fairly organized and will push SE into the region between 900am and noon. May see the cluster off the SW LA coast build WNW toward Harris County and converge over/near Harris County later this morning.

Will go with 1-2 inches of rainfall today with slightly higher isolated totals possible.

With the area so sensitive to additional rainfall additional flooding will be possible.

Watershed Update:

Cypress Creek: Creek is falling, but still overbanks

West Fork of San Jacinto River: river is at crest and start a very slow fall, but will remain in flood into the weekend

San Jacinto River below Lake Houston: river is at crest and will hold at this level for the next few days and then begin to fall

Brazos River: River is nearing crest and will begin a very slow fall over the weekend

San Bernard River: Massive flooding is in progress with a new record set at East Bernard. Flood wave is passing Boling with major flooding

Colorado River: Major flooding is in progress at Wharton with large sections of the city flooded. There was a levee breach yesterday in Colorado County along the river flooding large areas of rural farm lands.

Addicks Reservoir: Pool elevation has risen to 102 ft (previous record was 97.46 ft). Pool will continue to rise to near a crest of around 103.2 ft early next week.

Barker Reservoir: Pool elevation has risen to 94.36 ft (previous record was 93.6ft). Pool will continue to rise to near a crest of around 97.7ft early next week.

[unome]

finished mowing in the nick of time & amazingly, I have seen MAYBE one mosquito in the last week !

[unome]

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
923 AM CDT THU APR 21 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN TRINITY COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 1000 AM CDT

* AT 923 AM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER APPLE
SPRINGS...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE
TO ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
APPLE SPRINGS AND CENTRALIA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 3136 9495 3135 9496 3134 9496 3133 9490
3130 9489 3128 9488 3126 9490 3125 9487
3123 9486 3121 9486 3116 9485 3115 9486
3115 9484 3108 9490 3108 9494 3125 9513
3137 9496
TIME...MOT...LOC 1423Z 266DEG 16KT 3122 9492

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH

$$

[unome]

http://www.met.tamu.edu/ciams/lma/index.html

[srainhoutx]

04212016 mcd0135.gif

MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0135
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1026 AM EDT THU APR 21 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST TX

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 211425Z - 211725Z

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS FORMING AHEAD OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHICH
IS SLOWING AS IT ENTERS SOUTHEAST TX COULD LEAD TO HOURLY RAIN
RATES UP TO 1.75". FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE WITHIN A SATURATED
AREA.

DISCUSSION...THE 14Z MESOSCALE ANALYSIS SHOWS A DEW POINT GRADIENT
JUST INLAND OF THE TX COAST AND OFFSHORE THE LA COAST, WHICH IS
PARTIALLY DUE TO AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLY MORNING LA
CONVECTION. CONVECTION HAS BEEN FORMING NORTHWEST OF THIS
BOUNDARY. TO ITS WEST, AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM WHAT HAD BEEN A
FADING SQUALL LINE IS MOVING INTO THE REGION, WHICH HAS SHOWN
SIGNS OF SLOWING SINCE 10Z. GFS-BASED FORWARD PROPAGATION VECTORS
SHOWED THE POTENTIAL FOR SLOWING -- LONG-TERM PROGRESSION HAS
FALLEN FROM 35 KT TOWARDS 25 KTS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
NEAR 1.4", AND INFLOW AT 850 HPA (NEAR CLOUD BASES) IS
WEST-SOUTHWEST AT ~25 KTS. HOURLY RAIN RATES HAVE RECENTLY
REACHED 1" LOCALLY NORTHWEST OF IAH/HOUSTON INTERCONTINENTAL
AIRPORT.

SOME OF THE CAM GUIDANCE SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED 2-3"
AMOUNTS, WHICH COULD FALL QUICKLY. THE AVAILABLE PRECIPITABLE
WATER REGIME ALLOWS FOR HOURLY RAIN RATES UP TO 1.75", HIGH WHERE
CELL MERGERS OCCUR. WHILE MUCH OF THE CONVECTION CURRENTLY
APPEARS TO BE PULSE IN NATURE, ORGANIZED SEGMENTS WOULD CONTINUE
PUSHING SOUTHEAST AT 20-25 KTS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, WHICH
SHOULD MOVE THE OLD SQUALL LINE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. MUCH OF
THE REGION HAS SEEN HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE PAST 3-4 DAYS, SO
SOILS ARE SATURATED. LOCAL AMOUNTS IN THE 2-3" RANGE COULD LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DUE TO FORECAST UNCERTAINTY, USED A THREE HOUR
WINDOW.

ROTH

ATTN...WFO...HGX...LCH...

[singlemom]

Hey everyone...I"m here in Spring near 2920 and 45 (somewhat near Cypreswood and 1960)...and we're getting absolutely slammed! Super high winds peeling rain off of houses.....no visibility out our back yard as the rain is coming down so hard....and there are *no* warnings...lots of lightning.....

I know Willow Creek on 2920 near Dowdell was way out of its banks 2 days ago......

Just surprised that there have been no warnings for this intense of a storm as we've been receiving warnings on our phone and tv of late....

[unome]

DVIDS Tag RSS Feed: USACE Galveston District : https://www.dvidshub.net/rss/tag/usace- ... n-district

News: District issues special public notice to address flood recovery and repair activities

U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Galveston District

Story by Sandra Arnold

GALVESTON, Texas (April 21, 2016) ¬– The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Galveston District issued a special public notice in response to severe flooding and other storm-related damages that occurred in communities along the Texas coast to provide guidance and a summary of exemptions and permits, which may be required for the protection and repair of existing flood damaged structures, damaged land areas and damaged fills.

“We want those affected by the Houston area flood event to know that there are existing permitting tools that allow residents to immediately rebuild structures located in waters of the United States, to pre-existing conditions without having to notify and receive permission from the Regulatory Division,” said Kim Baggette, chief of the United States Army Corps of Engineers Galveston District's Regulatory Division.

According to Baggette, a torrential rainfall event totaling 18 inches that occurred this week resulted in record flooding along a sizable area of the Houston metro area and rising waters to historic levels in some areas.

“We anticipate several county agencies, municipalities and owners of damaged property will want to conduct repair activities in the near future and we want to provide them with information to help them navigate through the required federal processes where applicable,” said Baggette. “A Corps Section 10 of the Rivers and Harbors Act and/or Section 404 Clean Water Act permit may be required for dredging or placing fill in waters of the United States, including rivers, lakes, streams, creeks and wetlands however, many of the permits have scopes of work and thresholds that allow you to accomplish your project without delay or waiting for an authorization.”

Baggette explained that USACE engineers are authorized to approve special processing procedures in emergency situations (unacceptable hazard to life, a significant loss of property or an immediate, unforeseen and significant economic hardship) if corrective action requiring a permit is not undertaken within a time period less than the normal time needed to process the application under standard procedures. All regular permitting and regulatory processes apply for those activities that are not emergency protective measures.

“Communities should keep the long-term recovery requirements in mind as they move through the initial construction stages of emergency protective measures,” said Baggette. “I encourage interested persons to review the special notice in its entirety for more information about existing regulations.”
The Special Notice for Flood Recovery and Repair Activities in the Galveston District is available at http://1.usa.gov/1TiEkfm
For more news and information, visit http://www.swg.usace.army.mil . Find us on Facebook http://www.facebook.com/GalvestonDistrict or follow us on Twitter http://www.twitter.com/USACEgalveston .

[srainhoutx]

The afternoon updated Climate Prediction Center analogs, temperature and precipitation Outlook into early May continue to raise an eyebrow. It appears a generally unsettled pattern may continue for the foreseeable future. Stay tuned for further updates particularly next week.

[Andrew]

I think next week the Central Plains will see one of the bigger severe threats over the last couple years. All the parameters are coming together to support a large threat for all three types of severe weather. SPC seems to have the same general thinking, resulting in an aggressive forecast. Definitely something to keep an eye out for next week.

[ticka1]

I think next week the Central Plains will see one of the bigger severe threats over the last couple years. All the parameters are coming together to support a large threat for all three types of severe weather. SPC seems to have the same general thinking, resulting in an aggressive forecast. Definitely something to keep an eye out for next week.

Will it affect us here in SE Texas?

[Andrew]

I think next week the Central Plains will see one of the bigger severe threats over the last couple years. All the parameters are coming together to support a large threat for all three types of severe weather. SPC seems to have the same general thinking, resulting in an aggressive forecast. Definitely something to keep an eye out for next week.

Will it affect us here in SE Texas?

Too early to really say severe weather wise. I do suspect we will see some rain out of it though. Still a while away though so the details will matter a lot more down here.

[srainhoutx]

Get out and enjoy the weekend folks. Many of our neighbors are suffering and have a long recovery period ahead. If you experienced no problems, count your blessings. Our weather attention will begin to focus on the end of April/first part of May early next week. There are some indications that a generally unsettled pattern may develop next week extending into May. I believe KHOU will air a Special Program tomorrow evening for those that are interested.

[srainhoutx]

Fingers crossed for the SE Texas area that the 12Z GEFS ensemble scheme is correct regarding any additional heavy rainfall threat to end April. There does appear to be some very active weather well N of the Houston Metro throughout the coming work week with a possibility of severe weather across the Dallas Metroplex extending up into Oklahoma and the Plains.

[nuby3]

how much rain are we expecting from the Mexico disturbance tomorrow morning? looks to be headed our direction IMHO http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... x&loop=yes

[srainhoutx]

how much rain are we expecting from the Mexico disturbance tomorrow morning? looks to be headed our direction IMHO http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... x&loop=yes

Looks like dry air will keep things mostly in check today, but we will be monitoring a series of storm systems dropping SE into the Great Basin and slowly ejecting E into the Great Plains. That said the GFS does raise an eyebrow as we enter May, but that's a new month and a new Topic.

[srainhoutx]

Getting a bit concerned regarding the sensible weather pattern expected as we end April and begin May. The Ensembles continue to advertise a Rex Block over Greenland somewhat similar to what we have seen since mid April. Typically such a pattern spells repeated rounds of severe weather potential and the possibility of Excessive Rainfall across areas that do not need any additional heavy rain. I am particularly watching late this week into the coming weekend where the Global ensembles are suggesting a potent upper cold core trough sending embedded impulses across Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas and Louisiana. The Updated Weather Prediction Center Extended Outlook also is monitoring the potential which further raises an eyebrow.

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1002 AM EDT SUN APR 24 2016

VALID 12Z WED APR 27 2016 - 12Z SUN MAY 01 2016

...HEAVY, POSSIBLY EXCESSIVE RAINS ADDING TO RECORD 366 DAY TOTALS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF TX/OK/LA/AR WEDNESDAY, THEN MORE SIGNIFICANTLY
DURING THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND...SEVERE WEATHER ALSO POSSIBLE...

GENERAL FLOW PATTERN/MODEL PREFERENCE
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
MODELS AND ENSEMBLES SHOW GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE REPETITIVE
GENERAL FLOW PATTERN. A STRONG GREENLAND RIDGE/EASTERN CANADIAN
UPPER LOW BLOCKING COUPLET CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE EASTERN NORTH
AMERICAN FLOW. TO THE WEST MID-CONTINENT, A REX BLOCK
CONFIGURATION REMAINS RELATIVELY STEADFAST, WITH DEEP CYCLONES
MOVING SLOWLY UNDER ITS BASE THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE
PLAINS. BELOW NORMAL FORECAST SPREAD MAY PORTEND BETTER THAN
NORMAL PREDICTABILITY INTO SMALLER SCALES WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY.
MEANWHILE...ANOTHER ROBUST MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/CLOSED LOW SLAMS
INTO CA AND THE GREAT BASIN/ROCKIES BY THURSDAY/FRIDAY TO LEAD TO
ANOTHER ROUND OF CYCLOGENESIS/FRONTOGENESIS OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS NEXT WEEKEND. LATE WEEK TIMING ISSUES FROM THE WEST TOWARDS
THE PLAINS DEVELOP WITH RECENT ECMWF/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS
OUTPACING THE REST OF GUIDANCE. DECENT UPSTREAM RIDGE AMPLITUDE
LENDS WPC PREFERENCE FOR A SOLUTION ON THE STEADILY PROGRESSIVE
BUT OVERALL SLOWER SIDE OF THE FULL ENVELOPE OF SOLUTIONS.

FOR THE PRESSURES, WINDS, AND 500 HPA HEIGHTS, USED A COMPROMISE
OF THE 00Z CANADIAN/00Z UKMET/00Z ECMWF/06Z GFS ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO A 06Z GFS/00Z BIAS-CORRECTED
NAEFS MEAN COMPROMISE THEREAFTER. THE TEMPERATURE/CLOUD/DEW
POINT/WEATHER/PRECIPITATION CHANCES WERE BASED ON A MORE 00Z
NAEFS-HEAVY SOLUTION. OUR PREFERENCE ALSO MAINTAINS REASONABLY
GOOD WPC CONTINUITY.


WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS/THREATS
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
MULTIPLE ENERGETIC/STEADILY PROGRESSIVE EMBEDDED SYSTEMS WILL
BRING A SIGNIFICANT COVERAGE OF ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS THE LOWER 48
DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. AN EMPHASIS FOR HIGHER
PRECIPITATION TOTALS SHOULD EXTEND ACROSS THE WEST THEN SPREAD
OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS AS WELL AS THE EASTERN/NORTHEAST UNITED
STATES. HEAVIEST SNOWS SHOULD FOCUS OVER FAVORED HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE WEST/ROCKIES. SOME ADDITIONAL SPRING SNOW IS ALSO POSSIBLE
THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD NEAR THE CANADIAN
BORDER. THERE IS A HEAVY RAIN SIGNAL FOR OK/TX/AR/LA THROUGH
PORTIONS OF THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD, FIRST ON WEDNESDAY AND MORE
SIGNIFICANTLY BETWEEN LATE FRIDAY INTO NEXT SUNDAY. SINCE APRIL
22 LAST YEAR, A SWATH OF EASTERN TX, SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL OK, AS
WELL AS PORTIONS OF AR AND LA HAVE RECORDED RECORD RAINFALL PRIOR
TO THESE WAVES OF PRECIPITATION. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE PLAINS/MS VALLEY THUNDERSTORMS -- CONSULT LATEST
SPC OUTLOOKS FOR UPDATED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT INFORMATION.

ROTH/SCHICHTEL

[houstonia]

I will be watching the weather closely this week. My brother and his wife are driving down from Michigan to visit. They have made it to Nacogdoches and are on their way to Houston.

They have already stated their concern regarding the return trip - they leave Houston on Friday.

[srainhoutx]

The shortwave that brought the round of storms to S Texas early this morning is moving up the Coast across SE Texas. Hopefully we can get it out of our hair tonight as it moves on to the E. Still monitoring for additional rainfall, some possibly heavy as we head to late in the work week and next weekend timeframe. Would like to see a bit more data before raising the level of worries for our neighbors already suffering from the last Flood Event. Stay Tuned and keep weather aware this week.

[unome]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
333 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR POOR DRAINAGE AREAS
FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN WALLER COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
WESTERN HARRIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
NORTHEASTERN FORT BEND COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 430 PM CDT

* AT 332 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED HEAVY RAIN DUE TO
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL CAUSE URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING.
OVERFLOWING POOR DRAINAGE AREAS WILL RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING IN
THE ADVISORY AREA. UP TO ONE INCH OF RAIN HAS ALREADY FALLEN OVER
SOME LOCATIONS WITH ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF ONE HALF INCH POSSIBLE.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
SUGAR LAND...NORTHERN MISSOURI CITY...STAFFORD...BELLAIRE...WEST
UNIVERSITY PLACE...KATY...RICHMOND...TOMBALL...JERSEY VILLAGE...HUNTERS
CREEK VILLAGE...BUNKER HILL VILLAGE...PINEY POINT VILLAGE...SPRING
VALLEY...TOWN WEST...PECAN GROVE...SPRING BRANCH WEST...ADDICKS PARK
TEN...GREENWAY / UPPER KIRBY AREA...MISSION BEND AND AFTON OAKS /
RIVER OAKS AREA.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TURN AROUND...DON'T DROWN WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADS. MOST FLOOD
DEATHS OCCUR IN VEHICLES.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...URBAN AREAS...HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND UNDERPASSES AS
WELL AS OTHER DRAINAGE AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS.

&&

LAT...LON 3015 9541 2960 9543 2959 9589 3005 9585

$$