JUNE 2016: Showers/Storms Possible

[tireman4]

NWSHouston
‏@NWSHouston

Heavy rain over the Spring Creek watershed. 2 to 4 inches of rain fell over N Harris and S Montgomery county. #houwx

[mcheer23]

Clear blue skies will do nothing but heat up the atmosphere

[Texashawk]

Clear blue skies will do nothing but heat up the atmosphere

Perhaps, but it's still shocking how nice the weather is behind this line. Seems more like a cold front pushing through.

[djmike]

Huge training effect about to take place here in Beaumont. Not good. Today just might be our turn for the copious amounts of rainfall. We shall see...

[don]

Latest HRRR has another line of storms coming thru later on today...

[Texaspirate11]

1032 AM CDT THU JUN 2 2016

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN LIBERTY...NORTHEASTERN
GALVESTON AND CHAMBERS COUNTIES THROUGH 1115 AM CDT...

AT 1031 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
A LINE EXTENDING FROM 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF HIGH ISLAND TO PELICAN
ISLAND TO 17 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON STATE PARK. MOVEMENT WAS
NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
GALVESTON PIER 21...ANAHUAC...AMES...DAISETTA...HARDIN...DEVERS...HIGH
ISLAND...BOLIVAR PENINSULA...GALVESTON PLEASURE PIER...PELICAN ISLAND...
WINNIE...CRYSTAL BEACH...THE STRAND...STOWELL...GILCHRIST...PORT BOLIVAR...
ROLLOVER PASS...SMITH POINT...OFFATTS BAYOU AND OAK ISLAND.

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

[tireman4]

NWSHouston ‏@NWSHouston 59m59 minutes ago
940 AM Flood Advisory in effect for SE Mongtomery, C Harris, W Liberty Co. Storms capable of heavy rain moving through area. #txwx #houwx

[tireman4]

NWSHouston ‏@NWSHouston 3m3 minutes ago
Heavy rains and gusty winds of 30+ mph will continue through 130 pm from Lake Livingston to Liberty to Galveston eastward

[srainhoutx]

Update from Jeff:

Flash flood situation developing over extreme eastern SE TX as confluent flow off the Gulf of Mexico combined with significant inflow of Gulf moisture.

HRRR models shows training SSW to NNE bands developing off the Gulf and expect this to continue for the next several hours. Rainfall totals in the next 3-6 hours could average 4-8 inches in this area from Galveston Is to Liberty County eastward to the state line.

Rapid clearing behind this line will quickly result in destabilization of the air mass behind this main line. Closely watching the mid level circulation over SW TX and its ability to gradually take on warm core features. Will likely see additional development of heavy rainfall over SC and SE TX this afternoon as air mass recovers.

This remains a very serious flash flood situation for the next 48-72 hours.

[ticka1]

is this the main core or just the start of waves of rain?

[DoctorMu]

Make no mistake, with the upper level low swirling to our west, this is just the first wave. The rain and moisture appear to be far more tropical than last week, which had a nasty late severe season disposition. Characteristic small droplets and breeze are here. Daytime heating should flare up the next wave, but tropical warm core systems keep the engine running at night. Anywhere from Fort Bend Co through Beaumont should be on high alert for the next few days as the system slows.

[houstonia]

NWS discussion update:

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1040 AM CDT THU JUN 2 2016

.UPDATE...
In the short term - great news with clearing expanding across the area. Line of prolific rain from near CLL to CXO to HOU to LBX continues to shift eastward as upper s/w tracks through to the east. Intense rain rates of 2+" per hour will continue for at least a couple more hours over the eastern areas where ll moisture transport is maximized ahead of the line. Gusty winds of 30+ mph will accompany the stronger storms. By early afternoon a large part of the area should be rainfree (except for the northern and eastern areas) at least for a few hours. Next s/w can be seen on water vapor tracking into DRT area and lift from this should arrive around 21-23 mainly across the southwestern areas (where coincidently the greatest heating/destabilization will have occurred. Have lowered pops substantially in the west through 21z then ramp them back up and will keep the with the previous forecasts trend of high pops and qpf across the southern areas.
45

[djmike]

FLASH FLOOD WARNING
TXC199-245-351-361-021845-
/O.NEW.KLCH.FF.W.0048.160602T1554Z-160602T1845Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1054 AM CDT THU JUN 2 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
ORANGE COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
JEFFERSON COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
SOUTHEASTERN HARDIN COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
SOUTHWESTERN NEWTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 145 PM CDT

* AT 1046 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING
HEAVY RAIN TRAINING NORTH AT 15 MPH ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF
THE WARNED AREA. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SLOWLY
EASTWARD.

RAINS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES HAS ALREADY FALLEN OVER MUCH OF THE WARNED
AREA. 2 TO 4 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
BEAUMONT...PORT ARTHUR...ORANGE...NEDERLAND...GROVES...
PORT NECHES...VIDOR...BRIDGE CITY...WEST ORANGE...SOUR LAKE...
NOME...CENTRAL GARDENS...HAMSHIRE...SABINE PASS...MAURICEVILLE...
BEVIL OAKS...CHINA...ROSE CITY...PINE FOREST AND LAKEVIEW.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND NOW. ACT QUICKLY TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE.

KEEP CHILDREN AWAY FROM STORM DRAINS...CULVERTS...CREEKS AND STREAMS.
WATER LEVELS CAN RISE RAPIDLY AND SWEEP CHILDREN AWAY.

STAY AWAY OR BE SWEPT AWAY. RIVER BANKS AND CULVERTS CAN BECOME
UNSTABLE AND UNSAFE.

&&

LAT...LON 3016 9461 3024 9406 3024 9390 3026 9390
3029 9371 3008 9373 3008 9372 3006 9371
3007 9372 3000 9377 2999 9386 2997 9384
2981 9395 2969 9384 2967 9405 2956 9435
2989 9436 2989 9444 3011 9445 3011 9460

$$

MM

[sau27]

Unless I am reading it wrong I don't see any of the models showing anything that looks like a core rain event tonight. They are all showing a consistent spin with the rainfall but no concentration around the center. Is this a case of the models not having a full understanding of the situation yet?

As for the clearing I would liken it to a loaded gun. Moisture is still pumping in loading up the atmosphere, however the finger is just off of the trigger temporarily. The trigger is going to get pulled at some point in the next 48 hours or so we just dont know exactly where the barrel will be pointed when that happens. Whether its a core rain event or not, its going to rain again.

[texoz]

Unless I am reading it wrong I don't see any of the models showing anything that looks like a core rain event tonight. They are all showing a consistent spin with the rainfall but no concentration around the center. Is this a case of the models not having a full understanding of the situation yet?

As for the clearing I would liken it to a loaded gun. Moisture is still pumping in loading up the atmosphere, however the finger is just off of the trigger temporarily. The trigger is going to get pulled at some point in the next 48 hours or so we just dont know exactly where the barrel will be pointed when that happens. Whether its a core rain event or not, its going to rain again.

Maybe i'm seeing it wrong, but it appears the rain is concentrating under the center now, northwest of Austin, near Brownwood.

[srainhoutx]

Next shortwave (upper air impulse) is nearing Del Rio. That feature should ignite thunderstorm activity that may congeal into yet another Mesoscale Convective System later this afternoon/evening and begin to advance East. Beginning to see some towering cumulus developing across our West and SW areas. The atmosphere is becoming increasingly unstable yet again, so keep an eye on the radar trends. We are certainly not out of the woods with the flood threat across the entire Region.

[texoz]

srainhoutx, that satellite photo looks suspiciously tropical. It's not, but it definitely raises the eyebrow.

[srainhoutx]

srainhoutx, that satellite photo looks suspiciously tropical. It's not, but it definitely raises the eyebrow.

That it does. Water Vapor imagery shows our wound up little mid/upper low heading ESE toward the Edwards Plateau/Hill Country later this evening.

[DoctorMu]

Unless I am reading it wrong I don't see any of the models showing anything that looks like a core rain event tonight. They are all showing a consistent spin with the rainfall but no concentration around the center. Is this a case of the models not having a full understanding of the situation yet?

As for the clearing I would liken it to a loaded gun. Moisture is still pumping in loading up the atmosphere, however the finger is just off of the trigger temporarily. The trigger is going to get pulled at some point in the next 48 hours or so we just dont know exactly where the barrel will be pointed when that happens. Whether its a core rain event or not, its going to rain again.

Maybe i'm seeing it wrong, but it appears the rain is concentrating under the center now, northwest of Austin, near Brownwood.

There's a 2nd band of storms starting to fire up around the low. Some of these cells could spawn a lower Fujita-scale end twister. They should move fast...but that's not the end of the ULLs, impulses...

[DoctorMu]

srainhoutx, that satellite photo looks suspiciously tropical. It's not, but it definitely raises the eyebrow.

It's an ULL rather than surface low (and without an upper level ridge feeding it, but there appear to be some tropical characteristics of the air. Visually it has the appearance of tropical air, lighter cloud base, with faster moving bands/cells, small droplets of rain, breezy. Seems warm core vs. the cold core system of last week.