JUNE 2016: Showers/Storms Possible

[houstonia]

Looks like a line of rain/thunder moving up 59 from the southwest... I can't be sure since I am not right there, but it looks like Sugar Land and Meadows Place are getting heavy rain right now.

[djmike]

Flooded in Beaumont! Anyone heading east on I-10 be aware that many areas are under water and feeder roads are being closed.

[houstonia]

2:00 Aviation from NWS:

000
FXUS64 KHGX 021856
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
156 PM CDT THU JUN 2 2016

.AVIATION...
Main thunderstorm line has pushed east of all but Galveston early
this afternoon. Dry slotting over the region early this afternoon
has resulted in some clearing for the Southeast Texas terminals,
however isolated to scattered TSRA/SHRA has been able to develop
as convective temperatures have been reached. Expect this trend to
continue through the afternoon and early evening hours, with
activity dissipating from loss of heating. VFR conditions are
expected to prevail through the evening, but temporary MVFR
conditions cannot be ruled out as sct-bkn cumulus develop. IFR to
MVFR conditions will also be possible in thunderstorms from heavy
rainfall.

Attention then turns to a shortwave evident over South Central
Texas on afternoon water vapor imagery expected to approach the
TAF sites tonight. Have low confidence in what this feature will
mean for renewed thunderstorm development near the sites, but
given the moisture return going on now maintaining at least a VCSH
mention in overnight with the passage of this disturbance, with
potential for shower/thunderstorm development near the terminals
persisting into Friday morning. Otherwise, light south/southwest
winds are expected to back towards the southeast tonight in
response to the surface low over Central Texas.

Huffman

[tireman4]

FBCSO Texas ‏@FBCSO

1462 is now closed between 762 in Fort Bend County and 521 in Brazoria County. #BrazosRiver #flooding

[houstonia]

Jeff Lindner @JeffLindner1

1 inch in 15 min at US 59S at Beltway 8. Street flooding likely. #houwx #hounews

[houstonia]

TxDOT- HOU District @TxDOTHoustonPIO

Due to the continual rains/ rising water - including #TaxDayFloods - crews are preparing to close SH 6 NB/ SB from IH 10 to Pine Forest.

[srainhoutx]

NWS Houston/Galveston extends Flash Flood Watch into Saturday Evening...

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
255 PM CDT THU JUN 2 2016

AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-
GALVESTON-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MATAGORDA-
MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-
WHARTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALVIN...ANAHUAC...ANGLETON...BAY CITY...
BELLVILLE...BRENHAM...BROOKSHIRE...BRYAN...CALDWELL...CLEVELAND...
COLDSPRING...COLLEGE STATION...COLUMBUS...CONROE...CORRIGAN...
CROCKETT...DAYTON...EAGLE LAKE...EDNA...EL CAMPO...FREEPORT...
FRIENDSWOOD...GALVESTON...GROVETON...HEMPSTEAD...HOUSTON...
HUMBLE...HUNTSVILLE...KATY...LAKE JACKSON...LAKE SOMERVILLE...
LEAGUE CITY...LIBERTY...LIVINGSTON...MADISONVILLE...
MISSOURI CITY...MONT BELVIEU...NAVASOTA...ONALASKA...PALACIOS...
PASADENA...PEARLAND...PIERCE...PRAIRIE VIEW...RICHMOND...
ROSENBERG...SEALY...SHEPHERD...SUGAR LAND...TEXAS CITY...
THE WOODLANDS...TOMBALL...TRINITY...WEIMAR...WHARTON...WILLIS...
WINNIE
255 PM CDT THU JUN 2 2016

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR

* PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS...INCLUDING
THE FOLLOWING JACKSON. ...AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...BRAZOS...
BURLESON...CHAMBERS...COLORADO...FORT ...BEND...GALVESTON...
GRIMES...HARRIS...HOUSTON...LIBERTY...MADISON...MATAGORDA...
MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...WALKER...WALLER...
WASHINGTON AND WHARTON.

* EXTENDED THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING

* SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DEVELOPING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 3 INCHES
PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE. TONIGHT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA INCREASING THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL.
THE HEAVY RAIN RATES WILL BE LIKELY WITH THESE SLOW MOVING
STORMS. SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
AND SOME POTENTIAL FOR A BAND OF STORMS TO DEVELOP AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH TOWARD THE COAST. THIS COULD ACT AS A
FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAINS. RAINFALL TOTALS SHOULD BE BETWEEN 2 TO 3
INCHES...WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES.

* DUE TO ALREADY SATURATED SOILS...HOURLY RAINFALL RATES OF
BETWEEN 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL LIKELY INDUCE FLOODING OVER THOSE
AREAS THAT HAVE RECENTLY RECEIVED OVER A COUPLE OF INCHES OF
RAINFALL. RAPID INTENSE RAINFALL RATES OVER JUST A MATTER OF
15 MINUTES TO UNDER AN HOUR CAN EASILY CAUSE ROADWAY AND LOW
LAND FLOODING OVER URBAN AREAS.

* AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD ALSO HELP TO FOCUS
HEAVY RAINS TO THE WEST OVERNIGHT AND COULD EDGE INTO THE REGION
AROUND COLLEGE STATION TOWARD MORNING.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

IF TRAVELING ON LOCAL ROADWAYS AND COME UPON WATER COVERING THE
ROAD OF UNKNOWN DEPTH...PLEASE TURN AROUND...DO NOT DROWN!

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

[Ounce]

Looks like the center of a Low by viewing radar is NW of Fort Hood.

[srainhoutx]

Looks like the center of a Low by viewing radar is NW of Fort Hood.

That's a 700mb low associated with the MCS from overnight/early this morning. The Main upper low is WNW of San Antonio. Will need to watch radar trends to our West. I see 2 shortwave disturbances moving generally East. One near San Antonio/New Braunfels and the second further West around Del Rio near the upper low.

[BlueJay]

I feel like I'm Bill Murray in Ground Hog Day!!!

It is pouring down once again!!!

[jasons2k]

I've been studying surface observations, radar, satellite and especially the water vapor loop, and I notice three key features to watch this evening and overnight:

1) At the surface, we have cooler E and SE winds, mostly south and east of US 59. To the west and southwest, the air has been heated - 88 in Wharton, 87 in Victoria, etc. This is setting up a convergence line with storms possibly firing along this boundary. We need to watch for training tonight from any bands that setup from these surface convergence zones. There is another such boundary/outflow south of San Antonio as well, pushing south. You can see it on the San Antonio radar loop.

2) On Water vapor, you can see a plume of moisture coming in from the SW, near Corpus, with the next approaching short wave. That is poised to move across the area this evening and into tonight.

3) The Upper Level Low is moving into Texas, near Del Rio, and is moving off to the east. Expect bands of rain to wrap around it overnight, with flooding rains under the feeder bands and core of the ULL.

In summary, keep a close watch out. All the ingredients appear to be in place for some flooding rains across SE Texas and adjacent areas this evening and tonight.

[Ounce]

I feel like I'm Bill Murray in Ground Hog Day!!!

It is pouring down once again!!!

Part of that Woodlands line is making a bee line ESE, with the rest of it going NE. Folks east of 59 between Humble and Livingston are about to get popped.

[srainhoutx]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
410 PM CDT THU JUN 2 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
WEST CENTRAL LIBERTY COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
SOUTHWESTERN SAN JACINTO COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
SOUTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
NORTHWESTERN HARRIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 700 PM CDT

* AT 406 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING
HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN HAS
ALREADY FALLEN. FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SHORTLY. AS
THE LINE MOVES FROM NEAR JERSEY VILLAGE AND CUT AND SHOOT
EASTWARD. RAINFALL RATES OF NEARLY TWO INCHES PER HOUR WILL
CONTINUE WITH THESE STORMS.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
SOUTHEASTERN CONROE...TOMBALL...CLEVELAND...JERSEY VILLAGE...SPRING...
THE WOODLANDS...GREATER GREENSPOINT...OAK RIDGE NORTH...SHENANDOAH...
SPLENDORA...PATTON VILLAGE...ROMAN FOREST...WOODBRANCH...CUT AND SHOOT...
NORTH CLEVELAND...WOODLOCH...CYPRESS...WILLOWBROOK...GREATER INWOOD AND
PORTER HEIGHTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...URBAN AREAS...HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND UNDERPASSES AS
WELL AS OTHER DRAINAGE AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS.

&&

[houstonia]

Note - different location from srainhoutx's advisory above..

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
404 PM CDT THU JUN 2 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN HARRIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
NORTHERN BRAZORIA COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
EAST CENTRAL FORT BEND COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 700 PM CDT

* AT 403 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE
WARNED AREA. ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN HAS ALREADY FALLEN. FLASH
FLOODING IS ALREADY OCCURRING. STREETS WILL FLOOD AS THE STORMS
SLOWLY MOVE EAST FROM NEAR MISSOURI CITY TO BELLAIR TO NEAR GALENA
PARK.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
NORTHWESTERN PASADENA...PEARLAND...MISSOURI CITY...STAFFORD...SOUTH
HOUSTON...BELLAIRE...WEST UNIVERSITY PLACE...GALENA PARK...JACINTO
CITY...NORTHWESTERN MANVEL...ASTRODOME AREA...BARRETT...GREATER FIFTH
WARD...FOURTH WARD...FRESNO...NEARTOWN / MONTROSE...SECOND WARD...
GREATER EASTWOOD...GREATER HOBBY AREA AND DOWNTOWN HOUSTON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...URBAN AREAS...HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND UNDERPASSES AS
WELL AS OTHER DRAINAGE AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS.

[houstonia]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
345 PM CDT THU JUN 2 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Flash flood watch extended through Saturday afternoon.

Upper low spinning away west of SAT with s/w reaching CRP to EWX
at 20z. Scattered showers and thunderstorms developing across the
area forming small lines and moving northeast with the mean
7-500mb flow. Belt of convergence seen in the observations from
near SAT to Eagle Lake to Houston to Groveton and this should be
active area through early evening. A second area will likely
develop close to the coast and over the Gulf waters as s/w tracks
across the area this evening. Will be keeping an eye on the upper
low track as it nears the area toward morning and may undergo a
warm core rain event...that would probably only impact the NW
counties.

The region remains in a very favorable area for showers and
thunderstorms with heavy rainfall Friday as upper low stalls and
begins to retrograde while filling. Low level flow backs slightly
and the region will probably see scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms Friday and late Friday night/Saturday morning.
Frontal boundary sagging south Saturday through the area will also
probably become a focus for showers and thunderstorms with
widespread coverage. Overall widespread 2 to 3 inches amount with
localized areas of 4 to 8 inches will be possible. If a warm core
event evolves then the rainfall totals will likely need to be
adjusted upwards. Still to early to pinpoint if that scenario will
develop over the area though.

Dry air spreads into the region from the north Sunday and rain
chances should taper off quickly from north to south and by Monday
afternoon will only carry 20 pops for the coast in deference to
the ECMWF. Monday through Wednesday may be relatively dry.

45
&&

.MARINE...
The thunderstorm complex that has been moving across the coastal
waters for much of the day has all but shifted east of the Upper
Texas coast this afternoon. However, additional showers and
thunderstorms are expected in the wake of this line this afternoon
and evening as a disturbance pushes northeast out of South Texas and
already seeing some development occurring along the Texas Coastal
Bend. With the main upper level storm system that is responsible for
this activity hanging up over Texas, periods of showers and
thunderstorms are expected through the remainder of the weekend as
additional disturbances approach the coastal waters. Locally higher
winds and waves will be possible in any thunderstorm activity, as
well as visibilities reduced to 1 NM or less. Improving conditions
are expected by the end of the weekend as a weak cold front
approaches into the coastal waters, with light offshore flow
persisting into the beginning of next week.

Huffman

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 68 80 67 80 67 / 80 80 70 70 40
Houston (IAH) 69 82 69 82 68 / 70 80 60 70 50
Galveston (GLS) 74 81 75 82 74 / 80 80 90 70 50

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Flash Flood Watch through Saturday evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: Austin...Brazoria...Brazos...Burleson...Chambers...
Colorado...Fort Bend...Galveston...Grimes...Harris...
Houston...Jackson...Liberty...Madison...Matagorda...
Montgomery...Polk...San Jacinto...Trinity...Walker...
Waller...Washington...Wharton.

[srainhoutx]

Update from Jeff:

Flash Flood Warning is in effect until 700pm for Fort Bend and Harris Counties.

Two bands of excessive rainfall moving across Harris County.

One band moving west to east over N Harris County and the second band training WSW to ESE along US 59. Rainfall rates under both bands have been averaging 1-2 inches in the last hour. Street flooding is likely especially along US 59 from Sugar Land to Downtown Houston over the next few hours. Storms across northern Harris County have move eastward motion which should keep rainfall rates manageable. Will need to watch for any slowing of the N Harris County line or merging with cells over C Harris County.

[srainhoutx]

06022016 mcd0297.gif (10.24 KiB) Viewed 4749 times

MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0297
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
524 PM EDT THU JUN 02 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...SE TEXAS AND COASTAL REGIONS TO DEEP S TEXAS

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY

VALID 022124Z - 030124Z

SUMMARY...BACKING LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL SUPPORT BACKBUILDING AND
SLOW CELL PROPAGATION WHILE PROVIDING EXCELLENT MST FLUX FOR
EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCTION AND FLASH FLOODING THREAT

DISCUSSION...WV LOOP SHOWS A N-S ARCHED BAND PROGRESSING EASTWARD
IN E TX FROM MAIN UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL TX...ALONG THIS BAND VORT
CENTERS NEAR CRS IN NE TX LIFTING NWARD AND NEAR BKS IN DEEP S TX
MOVING ENE. THIS ALIGNMENT SUPPORTS A SECONDARY LINE OF MST
CONVERGENCE THAT HAS INITIATED CONVECTION ACROSS SE TX ADVANCING
EASTWARD BUT ALSO SUPPORTS BACKING LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE
COASTAL COUNTIES OF TX TO SUPPORT INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW THAT WILL
STRENGTHEN MST CONVERGENCE BUT ALSO SUPPORT SWWARD BACKBUILDING
WITH LIMITED PROPAGATION EXCEPT ON ANY COLD POOL GENERATION THAT
MAY TAKE A FEW HOURS GIVEN DEEP MST ENVIRONMENT. UPDRAFTS MAY
ALSO RECEIVE INCREASED CONVERGENCE DUE TO FRICTION AT THE COASTAL
ZONES AS WELL. DEEPEST MOISTURE AXIS IS FURTHER EAST WITH INITIAL
CONNECTIVE LINE ACROSS SE TX THOUGH VALUES REMAIN ABOVE 1.75" AND
SUPPORT EFFICIENT RAINFALL RATES IN THE 2-3"/HR RANGE. FLASH
FLOODING IS LIKELY GIVEN ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS. THIS SETUP
SCENARIO IS SUPPORTED BY A FAIRLY CONSISTENT HRRR V2 AND HRRR RUNS.

GALLINA

ATTN...WFO...BRO...CRP...HGX...LCH...

[singlemom]

I've been studying surface observations, radar, satellite and especially the water vapor loop, and I notice three key features to watch this evening and overnight:

1) At the surface, we have cooler E and SE winds, mostly south and east of US 59. To the west and southwest, the air has been heated - 88 in Wharton, 87 in Victoria, etc. This is setting up a convergence line with storms possibly firing along this boundary. We need to watch for training tonight from any bands that setup from these surface convergence zones. There is another such boundary/outflow south of San Antonio as well, pushing south. You can see it on the San Antonio radar loop.

Quote clipped

So....the boundary is setting up Southeast of 59, and that is where the rain will most likely train late afternoon\evening? We just had another intense downpour in Spring.....wondering if it'll set up again like last night in Spring\Woodlands

[Ounce]

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
437 PM CDT THU JUN 2 2016

TXC201-291-339-407-030000-
/O.CON.KHGX.FF.W.0055.000000T0000Z-160603T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
LIBERTY TX-SAN JACINTO TX-MONTGOMERY TX-HARRIS TX-
437 PM CDT THU JUN 2 2016

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CDT FOR
WEST CENTRAL LIBERTY...SOUTHWESTERN SAN JACINTO...SOUTHEASTERN
MONTGOMERY AND NORTHWESTERN HARRIS COUNTIES...

AT 434 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING
HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. 1.16 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN AT
KUYKENDAHL AND CYPRESS CREEK IN THE LAST 15 MINUTES AND 1.48 INCHES
HAS FALLEN AT STUEBNER-AIRLINE AND CYPRESS IN THE LAST 30 MINUTES.
FLASH FLOODING IS EITHER OCCURRING OR IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SHORTLY.
PLEASE AVOID AREAS WITH HIGH WATER.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
SOUTHEASTERN CONROE...TOMBALL...CLEVELAND...JERSEY VILLAGE...SPRING...THE
WOODLANDS...GREATER GREENSPOINT...OAK RIDGE NORTH...SHENANDOAH...
SPLENDORA...PATTON VILLAGE...ROMAN FOREST...WOODBRANCH...CUT AND SHOOT...
NORTH CLEVELAND...WOODLOCH...CYPRESS...WILLOWBROOK...GREATER INWOOD AND
PORTER HEIGHTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TURN AROUND...DON`T DROWN WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADS. MOST FLOOD
DEATHS OCCUR IN VEHICLES.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...URBAN AREAS...HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND UNDERPASSES AS
WELL AS OTHER DRAINAGE AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS.

&&

LAT...LON 3020 9511 2987 9548 2985 9580 3050 9524
3045 9508

[houstonia]

Some travel updates for those headed home:

Harris County OHSEM @readyharris
.@hcfcd Heavy rain at Cypress Crk @ Inverness Forest near Spring. High water possible. dlvr.it/LSqmKZ

readyharris
Harris County OHSEM @readyharris
.@hcfcd Heavy rain at Cypress Crk @ I-45 near Spring. High water possible. dlvr.it/LSqmJj

readyharris
Harris County OHSEM @readyharris
.@hcfcd Heavy rain at Cypress Crk @ Kuykendahl RD near Champions. High water possible. dlvr.it/LSqmHs

readyharris
6 minutes ago
Harris County OHSEM @readyharris
.@hcfcd Heavy rain at Cypress Crk @ Stuebner-Airline RD near Champions. High water possible. dlvr.it/LSqmGJ