Danielle Disipates Over Mexico

Tue Jun 14, 2016 8:25 pm

The National Hurricane Center is monitoring a broad surface low along a wave axis in the SW Caribbean Sea. This is a different system that Brooks has mentioned. The Monsoonal Trough continues to be active from the Gulf of Tehuantepec in the Eastern Pacific across the Yucatan Peninsula.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT TUE JUN 14 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A broad area of low pressure could form in association with a
tropical wave crossing the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico on Friday
or Saturday. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some
slow development of this system if the low emerges over the waters
of the Bay of Campeche or southwestern Gulf of Mexico later this
weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

Forecaster Kimberlain

Tue Jun 14, 2016 8:39 pm

Briefing from Jeff:

A tropical wave will cross the Caribbean Sea and portions of central America late this week into this weekend and emerge in the Bay of Campeche late this weekend or early next week. Envirnomental conditions over the Bay of Campeche and southern Gulf of Mexico would tend to support surface low formation and several of the global forecast models are suggesting various intensity of such formation in that region during this time. Large scale 500mb ridge axis is progged to be located over the central and southern plains by late this weekend which will develop a strong easterly steering flow across the northern Gulf of Mexico and would likely bring any tropical development inland over MX south of TX.

This feature will need to be monitored over the coming days.

Aside: Building ridge over the area is resulting in rising afternoon temperatures into the low to mid 90’s. Wet grounds are helping to keep high dewpoint air mass from mixing completely out during peak heating which is pushing afternoon heat index values into the 100’s. Increasing high temperatures into the mid 90’s Thursday-Saturday may push heat index values to near 108 which is advisory criteria if widespread values of 108 are met or exceeded.

Wed Jun 15, 2016 7:19 am

It doesn't look like there is much chance of a TC forming and tracking to Texas. Moisture should move into Mexico next Tuesday, likely without any development.

Wed Jun 15, 2016 9:32 am

Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice · 59m59 minutes ago

Calibrated ECMWF EPS genesis guidance still only showing a marginal risk for Bay of Campeche tropical cyclone threat

Thu Jun 16, 2016 1:19 pm

Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice · 44m44 minutes ago
Calibrated ECMWF EPS gaining some steam for possible Bay of Campeche weak tropical cyclone spin up.

Sat Jun 18, 2016 6:31 am

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT JUN 18 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A tropical wave located near the Yucatan Peninsula is producing
cloudiness and disorganized thunderstorm activity from the southern
Gulf of Mexico across the Yucatan Peninsula, Belize, and the
northwestern Caribbean Sea. A weak surface low pressure system could
form over the southern Gulf of Mexico during the next day or so, but
only gradual development is expected due to proximity to land and
marginally conducive upper-level winds. This system is forecast
to move west-northwestward at about 10 mph before it moves inland
early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

Forecaster Brennan

Sat Jun 18, 2016 8:07 am

As mentioned in the June Topic earlier this morning, INVEST 94L has been designated by the National Hurricane Center. Slow movement to the WNW to NW is expect for the next several days.

The attachment 06182016_1245Z_goes13_x_vis1km_high_94LINVEST_20kts-1010mb-196N-905W_100pc.jpg is no longer available

Sat Jun 18, 2016 11:06 am

Looks like the 53rd Reconnaissance Squadron will take a short flight down tomorrow afternoon for a looksee...if necessary.

Code: Select all

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1130 AM EDT SAT 18 JUNE 2016
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
         VALID 19/1100Z TO 20/1100Z JUNE 2016
         TCPOD NUMBER.....16-023

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. SUSPECT AREA (BAY OF CAMPECHE)
       FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 71          FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 72
       A. 19/1800Z                    A. 20/0530Z,1130Z
       B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST          B. AFXXX 0204A CYCLONE
       C. 19/1530Z                    C. 20/0300Z
       D. 21.5N 95.0W                 D. 22.0N 96.5W
       E. 19/1730Z TO 19/2230Z        E. 20/0500Z TO 20/1130Z
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT            F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

Sun Jun 19, 2016 3:42 pm

AF Reconnaissance C-130 has found the a Tropical Depression has formed in the Bay of Campeche. Expect Advisories to be issued shortly with Watches/Warnings along the Mexico Gulf Coast.

Sun Jun 19, 2016 3:50 pm

Vortex Message indicates Tropical Depression # 4 has formed...

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 19th day of the month at 20:45Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF97-5305
Mission Purpose: Investigate second suspect area (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 08
A. Time of Center Fix: 19th day of the month at 20:18:40Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 19°48'N 94°38'W (19.8N 94.6333W)
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 29kts (~ 33.4mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 66 nautical miles (76 statute miles) to the NNE/NE (34°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 89° at 26kts (From the E at ~ 29.9mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 67 nautical miles (77 statute miles) to the NE (35°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1010mb (29.83 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 402m (1,319ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 24°C (75°F) at a pressure alt. of 309m (1,014ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp & Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 1,500 feet
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 4 nautical miles

Remarks Section:
Maximum Outbound and Flight Level Wind: 34kts (~ 39.1mph) which was observed 57 nautical miles (66 statute miles) to the SW (226°) from the flight level center at 20:35:00Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: Below 1,500 feet
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 25°C (77°F) which was observed 32 nautical miles (37 statute miles) to the NNE (23°) from the flight level center

Sun Jun 19, 2016 3:58 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042016
400 PM CDT SUN JUN 19 2016

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE STATE OF
VERACRUZ MEXICO...

SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.9N 94.7W
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM ESE OF TUXPAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning from
Laguna Verde to Rio Panuco.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Laguna Verde to Rio Panuco Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24
hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Four was
located near latitude 19.9 North, longitude 94.7 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h), and
this motion with a slight decrease in forward speed is expected
during the next day or two. On the forecast track, the center of
the depression is expected to move inland over eastern Mexico on
Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slight strengthening is expected, and the depression is
forecast to become a tropical storm tonight or early Monday.

The minimum central pressure recently reported by an Air Force
Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 6 to 10 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15
inches possible in higher terrain over the Mexican states of
Veracruz, Tamaulipas, San Luis Potosi, Queretaro, Hidalgo, and
northern Puebla. These rains could cause life-threatening flash
floods and mud slides.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area Monday morning, making outside
preparations difficult or dangerous.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Brown

Sun Jun 19, 2016 4:05 pm

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042016
400 PM CDT SUN JUN 19 2016

The low pressure system over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico has
become sufficiently organized to be classified as a tropical
depression, the fourth tropical cyclone of the 2016 Atlantic
hurricane season. Although the thunderstorm activity was closer to
the center of the cyclone earlier today, the convection is now
a little better organized with some evidence of banding features on
the north side. In addition, data from an Air Force Hurricane
Hunter aircraft show that the circulation is well defined and has
maximum winds near 30 kt. This intensity is also supported by
NOAA buoy 42055 which has been reporting winds around 30 kt
most of the day.

The depression is moving westward at about 7 kt to the south a
mid-level high pressure system over the south-central United States.
This general motion with a slight decrease in forward speed is
predicted, taking the cyclone inland over eastern Mexico in about 24
hours, or perhaps sooner. The official NHC track forecast is close
to the GFS and ECMWF models.

The strong southwesterly wind shear currently affecting the
depression is expected to lessen by tonight, which could allow for
slight strengthening before the system begins to interact with land.
Once inland, the cyclone is expected to quickly dissipate when it
interacts with rugged terrain.

Based on the forecast, the Government of Mexico has issued a
tropical storm warning for a portion of the coast of Mexico within
the state of Veracruz.

The primary hazard associated with this system is expected to be
heavy rainfall, which could cause life-threatening flash floods and
mud slides over portions of eastern Mexico tonight through Tuesday.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/2100Z 19.9N 94.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 20/0600Z 20.0N 95.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 20/1800Z 20.3N 96.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
36H 21/0600Z 20.5N 98.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Brown

Sun Jun 19, 2016 4:07 pm

Its official from the National Hurricane Center in Miami, FL. Invest 94L is now TD 4 over the SW GOM with TS Warnings issued for a portion of the state of Veracruz, MX. TD 4 only needs a slight increase in strength to become our 4th TS of the 2016 hurricane season which will be named Danielle. This will remain well S of TX but a continued reminder that the 2016 hurricane season is here.

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042016
400 PM CDT SUN JUN 19 2016

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE STATE OF
VERACRUZ MEXICO...

SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.9N 94.7W
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM ESE OF TUXPAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning from
Laguna Verde to Rio Panuco.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Laguna Verde to Rio Panuco Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24
hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Four was
located near latitude 19.9 North, longitude 94.7 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h), and
this motion with a slight decrease in forward speed is expected
during the next day or two. On the forecast track, the center of
the depression is expected to move inland over eastern Mexico on
Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slight strengthening is expected, and the depression is
forecast to become a tropical storm tonight or early Monday.

The minimum central pressure recently reported by an Air Force
Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 6 to 10 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15
inches possible in higher terrain over the Mexican states of
Veracruz, Tamaulipas, San Luis Potosi, Queretaro, Hidalgo, and
northern Puebla. These rains could cause life-threatening flash
floods and mud slides.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area Monday morning, making outside
preparations difficult or dangerous.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

Sun Jun 19, 2016 4:31 pm

Tropical Depression # 4 briefing from Jeff:

Tropical Depression forms in the Bay of Campeche…tropical storm warnings are issued for the east coast of MX.

Data from the USAF mission this afternoon indicate that the area of low pressure over the Bay of Campeche has developed enough organization to be declared a tropical depression…the 4th of the 2016 hurricane season. Several 25-30kt winds were found across the broad circulation center and while convection remains disorganized, the system has enough organization to be declared a tropical cyclone.

The system is moving toward the west at around 7-10mph and this motion will continue as low to mid level ridging will remain in place along the US Gulf coast forcing an east to west steering flow. On this track the depression will cross the coastline within the next 12-24 hours likely as a tropical depression or minimal tropical storm.

Satellite images show squalls and an envelope of deeper tropical moisture on the north side of the circulation spreading toward the extreme southern portion of TX. This moisture will bring enhanced rain chances to extreme southern TX in the form of squalls over the next 24-36 hours. Do not expect any affects of this system along the remainder of the TX coast.

Mon Jun 20, 2016 7:01 am

TD #4 strengthens to become Tropical Storm Danielle 95 Miles ESE of Tuxpan...

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042016
700 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2016

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO FOURTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON...
...DANIELLE SPREADING RAINS ACROSS EASTERN MEXICO...

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.6N 96.0W
ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM ESE OF TUXPAN MEXICO
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM NNE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Laguna Verde to Rio Panuco Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Danielle was
located near latitude 20.6 North, longitude 96.0 West. Danielle is
moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue over the next day or so. On
the forecast track, the center of Danielle is expected to move
inland over eastern Mexico later today or tonight.

Recent reports from an Air Force Reserve Unit reconnaissance
aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to
near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening
is forecast before Danielle makes landfall in Mexico later today.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure recently measured by the reconnaissance
aircraft was 1008 mb (29.77 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Danielle is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 6 to 10 inches with isolated maximum amounts of
15 inches possible in higher terrain over the Mexican states of
Veracruz, Tamaulipas, San Luis Potosi, Queretaro, Hidalgo, and
northern Puebla. These rains could cause life-threatening flash
floods and mud slides.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach the coast
within portions of the warning area later this morning, making
outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

Mon Jun 20, 2016 7:03 am

TS Danielle briefing from Jeff:

Data for USAF mission this morning indicates that the tropical depression in the extreme SW Gulf of Mexico has intensified to a tropical storm and is given the name Danielle.

Deep convection has developed over the center of circulation this morning and the plane reported winds of 30-35kts with a few higher gusts. Danielle is drifting westward and will cross the eastern coast of MX later today or early tonight. There remains a short window for intensification of this system with relaxed wind shear aloft, but the overall time remaining over the warm waters of the SW Gulf of Mexico is very limited.

The overall circulation of Danielle is resulting in squalls reaching the S TX coast and this will continue today. A slight increase in wave action is also expected which will enhance rip currents especially along the middle and lower TX coast.

Tue Jun 21, 2016 2:13 pm

Looks like Danielle's gone and Earl awaits... Busy busy... thankfully these have all been tropical storms.

Danielle Disipates Over Mexico

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