JUNE 2016: Showers/Storms Possible

[jasons2k]

I fertilized today, was all set, and nothing here.

[StormOne]

I fertilized today, was all set, and nothing here.

Same here. Was hoping we were going to get rain cooled here. We got placed under the warning but in the end we got a 2 minute sprinkle that did nothing but make it feel more unpleasant.

[DoctorMu]

Some sea breeze kicking up. CLL could use a little bit of rain with a dry, hot week ahead.

[Heat Miser]

We got it here in Friendswood. I would say half inch to 3/4ths of an inch.
Would have worked perfectly for fertilizer.

[srainhoutx]

Will need to monitor the Tropics as we end June and begin July. An unusually strong Convectively Coupled Kelvin Wave currently situated over the Indian Ocean is expected to move East and be near the Eastern Pacific by the end of June/beginning of July. The Madden Julian Oscillation is indicating a favorable pattern may develop for potential tropical development during that time in the Western Atlantic Basin. This is a good time to check those Hurricane Supplies and refresh any items that need updating. Preparation in advance is always prudent versus when a Tropical System in nearing our backyard and crowds rush frantically to prepare.

[BlueJay]

Just got pounded with very heavy rain. Temp is 76F!

[Electric Lizard]

For those of us on the west side who have been looking over our shoulder at the Addicks and Barker reservoirs since Tax Day, it's interesting to note that although their water level is lowering quite slowly (about 4"/day), they are still expelling a lot of water. The total amount behind the dams had decreased from 208,200 ac-ft (1 ac-ft = 325,851 gal) on April 23 to 68,320 ac-ft today.
Although its flow has recently been cut back a bit, Buffalo Bayou at Dairy Ashford is still flowing at 2,240 cfs or a fairly astounding 1.45 billion gallons/day. Put into perspective, according to the City of Houston's Drinking Water Operations website, the city has the rights to treat 1.35 billion gallons/day through 2050. That's for all residential and industrial customers with 34 years of growth.
Many thanks to the HC Flood Control District and the USACOE for keeping us folks out west dry.

[srainhoutx]

Interesting to see the 00Z ECMWF developing a potential tropical system moving off the Northern Gulf Coast around Mobile Bay and heading West beneath the Upper Ridge. Some will remember Alicia developed from a potent thunderstorm complex that moved off the Coast around Mobile in August 1983 and quickly developed tropical characteristics. It meandered West bound becoming a Tropical Storm S of New Orleans and within 18 hour became a CAT 3 Hurricane coming ashore along Jamaica Beach on the West end of Galveston Island. While it is absolutely too soon to know with any certainty that any tropical troubles may spin up, the indicators mentioned above as well as many of the Global models are suggesting the potential is there for conditions possibly becoming much more favorable regarding tropical development that may pose a threat from Tuxpan to Tampa. We will see.

[BlueJay]

This is the first day of summer - the longest day of the year. It is the summer solstice. The sun will be directly over the Tropic of Cancer at 5:34 p.m. CDT today. There will also be a full moon tonight. Beginning tomorrow the days will be getting shorter.

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z GFS is indicating lowering mean sea level pressures across the NW Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico as we end June. The Global synoptic pattern is increasing for a favorable environment for tropical development across the Western Caribbean and the Gulf as June ends and July begins. The Day 11+ Analogs via the GFS Super Ensembles also indicate a pattern conducive for tropical mischief. We will continue to monitor the daily trends and keep a keen eye on the Tropics.

[tireman4]

I like the Summer paragraph...

000
FXUS64 KHGX 201410
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
910 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2016

.UPDATE...
Made some tweeks to forecast based on latest satellite trends
going with generally mostly sunny conditions to start the morning
most zones. With heating would expect cumulus field to develop and
expand with scattered pulse showers and thunderstorms developing
much as they did yesterday. Think coverage should again be
scattered...a bit higher coastal zones than inland...varying from
perhaps 40 pct SE to 20 percent north. 18

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

AVIATION...
A couple of disturbances in the deep layer easterly flow and
decent moisture aloft will combine with the sea and bay breeze to
generate isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms today.
Not a lot of confidence in the forecast models but did utilize the
HRRR and NAM12 for the forecast. Best chances for showers and
storms will be from KIAH to the coast; although, could not rule
out an isolated shower at KCXO. Outside of the rain areas, VFR
expected. Any MVFR exceptions will be around and shortly after
sunrise at the more rural sites.

40

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2016/

DISCUSSION...
At 3 AM, surface high pressure was located over the SE U.S. with
lower pressure over eastern CO. At 850 mb, a strong area of high
pressure was located over the eastern US and a weak trough over
New Mexico. Closer to home, 850 mb dew points were between 12-14C
amd 850 mb temps were below 20 C. At 300 mb...a sprawling ridge
extended from AZ to KS. SE TX lies on the southern edge of the
ridge. The should allow a weak upper level disturbance south of LA
to push west into the region later this aftn. The disturbance
coupled with adequate mstr (PW around 1.80 inches) and daytime
heating should trigger scattered shra/tsra today. Short term
guidance has once again initialized poorly and not much confidence
in their respective outputs. Model of choice today was a blend
between the ECMWF and the GFS. The GFS has been persistent with
bringing a band of high moisture into SE TX on Tuesday. Not sure
what to make of it but the GFS is getting support from the TT WRF
and to a lesser extent the NAM. The GFS and ECMWF look very
similar with the position of an expanding 500 mb ridge but the GFS
keep developing precip. At first glance, felt the ridge would
dominate but fcst soundings show a weak but breakable cap in the
700-500 mb layer and aftn PW values near 2.00 inches. Will
maintain chance PoPS on Tuesday.

The ridge expands across all of Texas by Wednesday. The ridge
weakens a bit as heights fall from 597 dm to 594 dm but the center
of the ridge is so close to SE TX that rain chances should drop
rather quickly. Another weak tropical wave will move into S TX
Thu/Fri and maybe there will be enough moisture on Friday to
warrant a mention of rain Thurs-Sun as the sea breeze might be
able to generate a few shra/tsra.

TROPICS...
TD 4 is expected to move west into Mexico by tonight. The storm
will have little to no impact locally other than some weak swells
propagating into the coastal waters south of Freeport. Rip
currents could become strong further south along the Texas coast.
If the depression strengthens and becomes a named storm, it will
be named Danielle and will be the fourth storm of the season. 43

CLIMATE...
Did you think it was summer already? Me too, but the summer
solstice is at 534 PM CDT this evening. June 20th/21st are the days
with the longest day length (amount of possible daylight) with 14
hours, 3 minutes and 32 seconds. Daylight length begins to
contract (albeit slowly) on June 22nd. 43

MARINE...
Some swells from the tropical depression in the far southern Gulf of
Mexico may work their way far enough north to affect the Upper Texas
coast later today or tonight - mainly west of Freeport. As can be
seen on the satellite water vapor, isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms today will actually be more associated with the
moisture that moved southward off the coast over the weekend.
Overall, high pressure ridging into the northwestern Gulf of Mexico
will keep onshore winds in place through the week with stronger
winds expected during the nighttime periods.

40

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 92 75 92 75 93 / 20 20 20 10 10
Houston (IAH) 92 76 91 75 93 / 40 20 40 10 10
Galveston (GLS) 89 82 88 80 89 / 40 30 40 10 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...18

[ticka1]

yes to the days getting shorter on june 22nd- means fall/winter getting closer.

[DoctorMu]

A couple of cells parked over Bryan and the airport and dumped some rain, but nothing IMBY...at least we have some breezy outflow and thus cooling.

[Rip76]

Stafford is getting hammered.

[BlueJay]

We are having a nice summer shower also!

[DoctorMu]

Another day, another sea breeze front moving NNW. It may not reach past Navasota, but passing showers for about 30% areawide. Enjoy!

[srainhoutx]

Surface analysis suggest a bit less moisture today across the Region with perhaps some higher PW's of around 1.7 to 1.9 inches across our Coastal tier of Counties and offshore. Noticeable Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough ( TUTT Low ) is spinning to our South and will move inland over Coastal Mexico today as it heads generally NW into Northern Mexico over the weekend. SE breezes of the Gulf will usher in deeper tropical moisture and increased instability Friday throughout the weekend with isolated to scattered showers and storms once again entering our sensible weather forecast.

The pattern looks generally favorable for daily rounds of showers and storms with the seabreeze and daytime heating early next week. Will need to monitor for a potential backdoor front dropping SW across Louisiana mid next week that may further increase our rain chances.

Attention then turns to the NW Caribbean and the Tropics. We have that information in our Hurricane Central section and the July Topic.

[tireman4]

FXUS64 KHGX 231137
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
637 AM CDT THU JUN 23 2016

.AVIATION...
12z TAF Discussion...radar showing very few if any showers along
the coast this morning compared to yesterday. That trend is
expected to continue with little impact to the Houston terminals.
Upper level ridge still over much of the area and precipitable
water values down to 1.7 inches. TAFs will have VFR CIGs for next
24 hrs. Winds will generally be from the S but show a shift to
more SE/ESE in the afternoon with the sea breeze for KIAH/KHOU.

Overpeck

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

DISCUSSION...
A deep layered upper level ridge was located just to the north of
SE Texas early this morning. A model consensus moves the center
of the ridge eastward to allow for southeasterly flow over the
upcoming weekend. The models then build the ridge back westward
during the first half of next week.

Am expecting less coverage of showers and isolated thunderstorms
today. The water vapor satellite trends have shown moisture
moving along the flow into the Upper Texas coastal areas;
although, this moisture area was smaller as compared to 24 hours
ago. The SPC RAP PW analysis was about 1.6 inches along and off
the coast at 330 AM. The operational RAP13 increases the PW field
to about 1.9 inches by around mid morning mainly along the coastal
areas. The streamer showers off the Gulf should persist into the
first half of the morning. The seabreeze should then help isolated
convection to develop later today.

As the center of the ridge moves eastward over the next couple of
days, the easterly flow should become southeasterly. This type of
flow pattern should increase the Gulf moisture and result in an
increase in the coverage of showers and isolated thunderstorms
beginning on Friday and persisting over the weekend.

The high pressure ridge then redevelops over AR, OK, and the
Southern Plains early next week. Both the GFS and ECMWF hinting
that a weakness in the ridge will develop over SE Texas as a
backdoor cold front moves into the lower MS valley by the middle
of next week. The impact will mean near normal temperatures and
daily chances for showers and thunderstorms.

40

MARINE...
A few widely scattered showers will be possible this morning
across the Upper Texas Coastal waters. These showers should move
inland later this morning as was the case yesterday. Winds are
around 15- 17kts from the S/SE early this morning but should be
decreasing later in the morning. Overall moderate southerly winds
are expected the next few days with a brief increase to around 15
kts each night. This will support 3 ft seas for the next few days.

Overpeck

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 92 74 93 75 93 / 10 0 20 10 20
Houston (IAH) 92 74 93 76 93 / 20 10 30 10 30
Galveston (GLS) 89 81 89 82 90 / 20 10 30 20 30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...40
Aviation/Marine...39

[mckinne63]

It is getting really cloudy and windy here in Stafford. Love watching the summer storms come in. Enough rain to keep the flowers and ponds happy, cool the temps a bit, though temporarily, but not too much water to flood homes and rivers.

[Kludge]

It is getting really cloudy and windy here in Stafford. Love watching the summer storms come in. Enough rain to keep the flowers and ponds happy, cool the temps a bit, though temporarily, but not too much water to flood homes and rivers.

Color me jealous.

This is the 20th day here with nothing measurable. The pulse showers have missed, and the sea breeze goes poof before it gets this far.

Please send them our way. Hopefully the backdoor front on Monday will bring some relief to our flash-drought.