August 2016: Rain Chances Continue.

[Andrew]

I just can't understand how you forgot that we received a yearly worth of rainfall for main locations around the world in a matter of weeks a couple months ago.

I didn't forget, I just rather would have had that type of rain during summer(or at least spread it out all through summer). August is far from over, true, but still.

This is what I call an epic summer climate:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Goa#Climate

As for your argument about places along Louisiana receiving more rain, well that has always been the case because they are located along the central gulf coast where deeper moisture is readily available. That has always been the case. But I still don't understand all the complaining when we have been setting rainfall records left and right. Texas in general is a climate battlezone. We have the semi-desert regions of the west and northwest with a subtropical zone further to the southeast. As a result you get these spells where dry or wet periods can take over. This has always been the case.

And Louisiana having deeper moisture, while all of Texas doesn't, is just totally insane luck of the draw, if you ask me. There is literally no meaningful geographic difference between the Houston metro (especially along the coast), and places in Louisiana like Avery Island, or Lake Charles; this is especially the case when you look at the natural plants that grow in Houston (which are the same as those from all the way at the Atlantic Coast). Yet, somehow, the moisture just stays over there, spilling into Beaumont, while it is miraculously dry as you go west (except, maybe, far southern Brazoria County). I know that Houston eventually does get the moisture, but imagine if it never missed out as much?

The true battleground is the I-35 corridor; anywhere east is a true wet climate, and deserves to stay as such. Many other areas around this globe have humid zones right next to desert (Australia is a great example, as is South America around southern Argentina), but that does nothing to destroy their wet climate.

And to top it off, Phoenix, in the middle of the desert, averages more days of rain than Austin during summer. What an epic fail much of Texas is during summer.

It's not a luck of the draw, south winds usually have a larger fetch of moisture over LA than Texas. As for Phoenix, I can show you many summers where they didn't receive much rain at all. I can do that for multiple locations over the nation and world. Just because we don't see 10-20 inches of rain in July or August doesn't make the summer fail. It is just standard atmospheric science at work.

[BiggieSmalls]

I don't have the technical details down as much as some here....but take a map of the US....look at the Texas coastal bend and at the westernmost part of the bend (around Corpus) draw a line straight up and down.....to the left of it, if you pick any point in the state, land (Mexico) is directly south. East of it, the Gulf is directly south.

Prevailing winds (especially in the not-Winter) are south....so do the math. The more water that is south of a point on the map, the more rain it generally leads to. The more land that is south of a point on the map, the less rain.

Texas is divided (roughly by I 35, as some have said)...but just because Houston has Gulf south of it, it's still closer to the dividing line than Louisiana and the Southeastern states are. Google US Rainfall Map and you'll pretty much see what I'm talking about. It isn't THAT big of a mystery why Southeast Texas (which is on the western border of the wet zone) ocassionally has borderline droughts, and gets less rain than points East (with the entirety of the Gulf to the south).

[A.V.]

It's not a luck of the draw, south winds usually have a larger fetch of moisture over LA than Texas. As for Phoenix, I can show you many summers where they didn't receive much rain at all. I can do that for multiple locations over the nation and world. Just because we don't see 10-20 inches of rain in July or August doesn't make the summer fail. It is just standard atmospheric science at work.

But in the department of "moisture-fetching", Houston (especially its coastal areas) isn't meaningfully geographically different than western coastal Louisiana (Lake Charles, Avery Island, etc). Beaumont is exactly the same as those areas; yet, many a times, you see the storms just end right at the state line. The fact that heat ridges even center often over Texas is bad-luck in and of itself; no geographic reason whatsoever.

Too much of Texas is way too dry during the summer, that is the problem; no way that a desert like Phoenix should have greater rainfall frequency than Austin, TX. No way that Corpus should be as dry as it is, right next to the Gulf.

I don't have the technical details down as much as some here....but take a map of the US....look at the Texas coastal bend and at the westernmost part of the bend (around Corpus) draw a line straight up and down.....to the left of it, if you pick any point in the state, land (Mexico) is directly south. East of it, the Gulf is directly south.

Prevailing winds (especially in the not-Winter) are south....so do the math. The more water that is south of a point on the map, the more rain it generally leads to. The more land that is south of a point on the map, the less rain.

Texas is divided (roughly by I 35, as some have said)...but just because Houston has Gulf south of it, it's still closer to the dividing line than Louisiana and the Southeastern states are. Google US Rainfall Map and you'll pretty much see what I'm talking about. It isn't THAT big of a mystery why Southeast Texas (which is on the western border of the wet zone) ocassionally has borderline droughts, and gets less rain than points East (with the entirety of the Gulf to the south).

Not entirely true; prevailing winds along the Gulf Coast (and any coast in general) follows the sea-breeze. Thus, in Houston, they come from the SE, while in NOLA, they come from the S. In Tampa, they come from the W (or from the East if strong enough). So, location doesn't really matter in this; the real problem is the ridge, which screws much of Texas over. If that ridge didn't exist, Brownsville would be like Tampa right now.

[A.V.]

On another note, I will say two things:

1.)The Texas coast is actually quite steady in temperature. Savannah, GA, far east on the Atlantic Coast, and as far from desert you can get, from 1981-2015, averaged more 100F days than Central Houston did. This is even including 2011, which was the hottest summer in Texas history for centuries, as well as the fact that Houston has greater UHI:

Savannah, GA:
http://i.imgur.com/pw0Ytgx.png

Central Houston:
http://i.imgur.com/rAyXOd8.png

Average summer highs are only in the low 90s for Houston Hobby, even at summers peak. Now, imagine how much cooler it would be with more frequent summer rainfalls?

2.) The rip-off could be worse; Progreso, right on the Yucatan Peninsula, in the middle of the Gulf, is semi-arid. Aruba is an island in the Carribean, and is arid. So is the northern tip of the Guajira peninsula. Of course, there is the Persian Gulf:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Progreso, ... 1n#Climate
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aruba#Climate
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Guajira_Peninsula
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dubai#Climate

[BiggieSmalls]

Fair point, but again, Google US Rainfall map....the further you head east from the coastal bend north-south line, the higher the rainfall averages. Facts are facts.

[A.V.]

Fair point, but again, Google US Rainfall map....the further you head east from the coastal bend north-south line, the higher the rainfall averages. Facts are facts.

https://www.climatesource.com/images/ppt_ann.gif

It does increase the further east you go, but the Atlantic Coast and Florida, as far east as you can get, both have lower precipitation totals than the middle Gulf Coast.

[A.V.]

The forecast discussions talk of increasing heights, despite the fact that Southeast Texas is now under a trough. It can actually be temporary, since a source for subsidence other than HP is the counter-clockwise low pressure spin sending drier air from the north into Texas; such subsidence will dissapear if the low gets sufficiently close enough:

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 911 PM CDT TUE AUG 9 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Heat index values still above 100 degrees at many locations at 8
PM. Can not recall ever observing heat index values above 115
degrees in this area. Will it happen again tomorrow? Not exactly
sure but air temperatures will again be very warm but maybe a bit
more cloud cover will shave a few degrees off high temperatures.
Still forecasting heat index values near 110 degrees tomorrow aftn
so the heat advisory will remain in effect and another Excessive
Heat Warning may yet be needed if max temps warm above current
fcst values. As for rain chances, it appears that that a weak low
over the northern gulf coast has shifted slightly west. Not sure
if this feature will edge close enough to provide SE TX with
better rain chances. SE TX will lie right on the edge of deeper
moisture but heights are about 30 meters higher than 24 hours ago.
500 mb and 300 mb analysis shows a weak trough of low pressure
over E TX so would expect heights to be falling, not increasing.
Short term guidance continues to suggest drier solutions so will
leave the 20/30 PoPs as currently configured. Cleaned up PoPs for
this evening and tweaked hourly temp, dew pt and sky grids. 43

[A.V.]

For Houston - I saw it the other day and I'm looking for it - great graphicast.

Oh its hot by the bay - but we got a bit o luck today....after that, the steam was on.

Hot, but still with storms. Better than heat with nothing, as seen in much of this state, which is an epic fail during summer. No way the TX Panhandle should be flooded with rain, while the coast sees nothing.

[Ounce]

For Houston - I saw it the other day and I'm looking for it - great graphicast.

Oh its hot by the bay - but we got a bit o luck today....after that, the steam was on.

Hot, but still with storms. Better than heat with nothing, as seen in much of this state, which is an epic fail during summer. No way the TX Panhandle should be flooded with rain, while the coast sees nothing.

Yet, it happens and will happen again. And again. And again. This horse has been beaten to death.

[A.V.]

Yet, it happens and will happen again. And again. And again. This horse has been beaten to death.

Not saying that it can't happen, just that it is highly abnormal, and should not happen very often.

[Katdaddy]

Another day and another Heat Advisory across SE TX. The potential exist more excessive heat again today. Yesterday both Pearland and Angleton reached a heat index of 116F. The mid level low along the NE GOM coast will drift W the next few days. Increasing rain chances and slightly cooler temps through the weekend and into next week.

[redneckweather]

Yet, it happens and will happen again. And again. And again. This horse has been beaten to death.

Not saying that it can't happen, just that it is highly abnormal, and should not happen very often.

But it does and will happen again and again and again and again and again because this is TEXAS. Whichever way to try to slice it, you aren't changing anything. This is how the weather works in this part of the world...always has. If you feel you are getting ripped off to the point of being Angry, Naked and Afraid, then I suggest you move over to Louisiana so you can experience the type of weather you so desperately need in your life. Very strange argument.

[A.V.]

But it does and will happen again and again and again and again and again because this is TEXAS. Whichever way to try to slice it, you aren't changing anything. This is how the weather works in this part of the world...always has. If you feel you are getting ripped off to the point of being Angry, Naked and Afraid, then I suggest you move over to Louisiana so you can experience the type of weather you so desperately need in your life. Very strange argument.

Nope, Texas is way too big of a state to be painted in this broad brush. I continue to stand by my point that much of the state is being ripped off by these weather patterns, out of sheer bad luck (given no geographic factor behind their causes). You know its bad luck, and not geography, when places just across the state line have been rained on so many times.

[BiggieSmalls]

I also find the premise flawed that "good weather" means warm, rainy and humid, with no real seasons. Have fun with that

[BiggieSmalls]

But it does and will happen again and again and again and again and again because this is TEXAS. Whichever way to try to slice it, you aren't changing anything. This is how the weather works in this part of the world...always has. If you feel you are getting ripped off to the point of being Angry, Naked and Afraid, then I suggest you move over to Louisiana so you can experience the type of weather you so desperately need in your life. Very strange argument.

Nope, Texas is way too big of a state to be painted in this broad brush. I continue to stand by my point that much of the state is being ripped off by these weather patterns, out of sheer bad luck (given no geographic factor behind their causes).

You should send God an email, or leave him a one star review on Yelp for "Texas Weather"

[A.V.]

I also find the premise flawed that "good weather" means warm, rainy and humid, with no real seasons. Have fun with that

This is how summers need to be:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mumbai#Climate

[BiggieSmalls]

I also find the premise flawed that "good weather" means warm, rainy and humid, with no real seasons. Have fun with that

This is how summers need to be:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mumbai#Climate

80 inches of rain per summer with more rainy days than non rainy days? You must not be much of a beach/pool/lake/river goer

[A.V.]

You should send God an email, or leave him a one star review on Yelp for "Texas Weather"

I might as well; I've seen no geographic technicalities so far that cause these ridges to dominate weather in much of this state so often.

Too much of this large state is being ripped off, climate wise. Only tiny slivers east of long 96 escape this. South Texas is ripped off, rainfall wise, but they redeem themselves with nice winters.

[A.V.]

80 inches of rain per summer with more rainy days than non rainy days? You must not be much of a beach/pool/lake/river goer

I am, I go at times when it isn't raining. Summer storms tend to be brief.

[BlueJay]

Whew!

It's August in Texas. The grass is brown and crispy and the pines are suffering too, but it's not 2011 where we were watching raging forest fires on nearly a daily basis.