Tracking the Tropics:

Tue Aug 30, 2016 7:44 am

2km Visible Imagery captures the Tropical Disturbance along the Texas Coast, TD 9 in the Southern Gulf and TD 8 near the North Carolina Coast. Only one may actually achieve a name later today and that would be Hermine in the Southern Gulf of Mexico

Tue Aug 30, 2016 3:45 pm

Just a question for maybe WXman or Srainhoutx.

TD#9

This thing keeps going west, is it a chance the trough misses it and does not pick it up? and if so What's the next scenario?

Tue Aug 30, 2016 3:53 pm

Mark Sudduth will be traveling to FL & setting up surge cams there, streaming from his Tahoe - keep watching, he does great work:

http://hurricanetrack.com/
https://twitter.com/hurricanetrack
https://www.facebook.com/hurricanetrack
https://www.youtube.com/c/hurricanetrack

latest video update, Aug 30th https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S6QcGHnYyhk

Thanks Mark !

Tue Aug 30, 2016 3:55 pm

Remember Mark is one of our KHOU Weather Forum Members.

Tue Aug 30, 2016 4:02 pm

TD 9 is Florida bound. Watches have been hoisted...

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092016
400 PM CDT TUE AUG 30 2016

...HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF
FLORIDA GULF COAST...

SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.4N 87.3W
ABOUT 345 MI...555 KM W OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
ABOUT 320 MI...515 KM WNW OF HAVANA CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the Florida Gulf coast from
the Anclote River to Indian Pass. A Tropical Storm Watch has been
issued for the Florida Gulf coast west of Indian Pass to the
Walton/Bay County line.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Anclote River to Indian Pass

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* West of Indian Pass to the Walton/Bay County line

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests along the United States east coast from northern Florida
through the Carolinas should monitor the progress of this system.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nine was
located near latitude 24.4 North, longitude 87.3 West. The
depression is moving toward the northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A
turn toward the north-northwest is expected tonight, followed by a
turn toward the north-northeast on Wednesday. On the forecast
track, the center will approach the coast in the watch area on
Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the
depression is expected to become a tropical storm tonight or early
Wednesday.

The minimum central pressure reported by a NOAA Hurricane Hunter
aircraft is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible over portions of the
Hurricane Watch area by Thursday afternoon. Tropical storm
conditions are possible over portions of the Tropical Storm Watch
area by Thursday afternoon.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. There is a
possibility of life-threatening inundation within the next 48 hours
along the Gulf coast of Florida from Aripeka to Indian Pass. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the Prototype National
Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic. Persons located
within these areas should be prepared to take all necessary actions
to protect life and property from rising water. Promptly follow
any instructions from local officials.

The water could reach the following heights above ground if the
peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
Indian Pass to Aripeka...2 to 4 feet
Aripeka to Bonita Beach...1 to 2 feet

The Prototype National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning
Graphic is a depiction of areas that would qualify for inclusion
under a storm surge watch or warning currently under development by
the National Weather Service and planned for operational use in
2017. This prototype graphic is available at
http://www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?wsurge

RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce additional rain
accumulations of 3 to 5 inches over western Cuba through Wednesday,
with maximum storm total amounts up to 20 inches. These rains
could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. Storm
total rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches are possible over much of
the Florida peninsula through Friday morning, with isolated maximum
amounts of 15 inches possible. This rainfall may cause flooding
and flash flooding.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

Tue Aug 30, 2016 4:17 pm

srainhoutx wrote:Remember Mark is one of our KHOU Weather Forum Members.

I know, he does awesome work - loved his flood cams in Houston the last March & April !

Wed Aug 31, 2016 7:55 am

Seeing ship reports of Tropical Storm force winds not too far from the center of circulation of TD 9. Looking at satellite imagery with overshooting cloud tops near the center, I think it is safe to say Hermine has finally got its act together.

Wed Aug 31, 2016 12:57 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HERMINE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 12A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092016
100 PM CDT WED AUG 31 2016

...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS
STRENGTHENED INTO A TROPICAL STORM...

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.7N 88.0W
ABOUT 395 MI...640 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
ABOUT 415 MI...665 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Anclote River to Indian Pass

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Anclote River to the Walton/Bay County line

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Marineland Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests along the United States east coast from Georgia through
the Carolinas should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Hermine was
located near latitude 24.7 North, longitude 88.0 West. Hermine
appears to be drifting northward near 2 mph (4 km/h). A
north-northeastward motion is expected later today, and a turn
toward the northeast with increasing forward speed is expected on
Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Hermine will
approach the northwest Florida coast in the warning area on Thursday
afternoon.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with
higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next
day or two, and Hermine could be near hurricane strength by the time
landfall occurs.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
mainly to the southeast of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area on Thursday afternoon. Hurricane
conditions are possible over portions of the hurricane watch area
beginning Thursday afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are
possible in the tropical storm watch area by early Friday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. There is a danger
of life-threatening inundation within the next 36 to 48 hours along
the Gulf coast of Florida from Aripeka to Indian Pass. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the Prototype National
Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic. Persons located
within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life
and property from rising water. Promptly follow any instructions,
including evacuation orders, from local officials.

The water could reach the following heights above ground if the
peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Indian Pass to Ochlockonee River...2 to 4 feet
Ochlockonee River to Chassahowitzka...3 to 5 feet
Chassahowitzka to Aripeka...2 to 4 feet.
Aripeka to Bonita Beach...including Tampa Bay...1 to 2 feet

The Prototype National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning
Graphic is a depiction of areas that would qualify for inclusion
under a storm surge watch or warning currently under development by
the National Weather Service and planned for operational use in
2017. This prototype graphic is available at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?wsurge

RAINFALL: Hermine is expected to produce additional rain
accumulations of 2 to 4 inches over western Cuba through today, with
maximum storm total amounts up to 20 inches. These rains could
cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. Storm total
rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches are possible over portions of
central and northern Florida through Friday, with isolated maximum
amounts of 15 inches possible. Coastal areas of Georgia and the
Carolinas are expected to receive storm total rainfall of 4 to 7
inches, with local amounts of 10 inches possible through Saturday
morning. These rains may cause flooding and flash flooding.

TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible late tonight into
Thursday morning mainly across central Florida. A few tornadoes are
possible Thursday afternoon into Thursday night over north Florida
and southeast Georgia.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

Thu Sep 01, 2016 9:09 am

Periscope with NHC Director, Dr Rick Knabb

https://www.periscope.tv/w/1RDxlLODlwMxL

https://twitter.com/NHCDirector

https://twitter.com/NWSNHC

https://twitter.com/NHC_TAFB

https://twitter.com/NHC_Surge

Thu Sep 01, 2016 2:03 pm

HURRICANE HERMINE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092016
155 PM CDT THU SEP 01 2016

...DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT
HERMINE HAS STRENGTHENED TO A HURRICANE...

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds in Hermine have increased to near 75
mph (120 km/h). Based on these data, Hermine is now upgraded to a
hurricane, the fourth hurricane of 2016 in the Atlantic basin.

SUMMARY OF 155 PM CDT...1855 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.1N 85.4W
ABOUT 115 MI...180 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
ABOUT 175 MI...285 KM W OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES

$$

Forecaster Brennan/Pasch

Thu Sep 01, 2016 2:13 pm

The tops on the storm are really warming up and it is moving pretty fast. Probably will see landfall before midnight. A lot of dry air is being ingested.

Thu Sep 01, 2016 2:43 pm

Other than Gaston and Hermine, the Tropics remain quiet for the time being. MIMIC does show a tropical wave that once was 92L over the Central Atlantic and another tropical wave just NE of the Lesser Antilles.

The latest 12Z guidance is rather quiet other than the Canadian that has a myriad spurious TC's spinning up almost everywhere. That said the atmospheric conditions continue to suggest very conducive potential for tropical development, particularly W of 50 Longitude. A very robust MJO Pulse and a vigorous Convectively Coupled Kelvin Wave are in the Western Atlantic Basin slowly progressing Eastbound across the Atlantic Basin, but dry air across the Main Development Region is an inhibiting factor for now.

Thu Sep 01, 2016 2:49 pm

Thursday afternoon Hurricane Hermine briefing from Jeff:

USAF mission has confirmed that the tropical storm is now a hurricane…the first hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico since 2013. Hermine will landfall as a hurricane into FL this evening…the first hurricane to strike FL since 2005.

See graphic below for numerous watches/warning that are in effect for the US Gulf and East coast.

Discussion:
Hermine continues to intensify this morning and now afternoon with the central pressure haven fallen from 1002mb yesterday evening down to 988mb on the last recon pass. Flight level winds of 77kts were recorded and both the radar and satellite presentation looks good with deep convection having wrapped around the center of the system. Radar images out of Tallahassee show a well developed and large eye like feature. This afternoon is the first time deep convection has successfully wrapped all the way around the center. Given the steady intensification today and continued fairly favorable conditions…Hermine will likely continue to strengthen up to landfall early on Friday.

Hermine is tracking to the NNE at 14mph and this motion is expected to continue with an increase in forward speed. On this track the center of Hermine will cross the NW FL coast late tonight or early Friday morning south of Tallahassee in the NW portion of Apalachee Bay. The system will then track NNE to NE across S GA and across the Carolinas and then offshore the mid-Atlantic by Sunday where it slows down and potentially stalls east of the New Jersey coast and south of New England. The extended portion of this forecast remains of low confidence due to the complex interaction this system will have with a departing trough and building upper level blocking ridge of high pressure over the NE US and SE Canada.

Impacts:
Significant and extensive storm surge flooding is imminent along the NW/N/NE coasts of Apalachee Bay. This area is extremely storm surge prone to a NE moving tropical system with a long fetch SSW feed into the Bay. The tropical storm force wind field has expanded this morning and will only help to push even larger amounts of sea water into the bay. This process is already underway and water levels along the coast will begin to rise rapidly this evening and peak overnight into Friday morning. Life threatening storm surge inundation of 6-8 ft above ground level will be possible at the head of Apalachee Bay which will submerge coastal structures that sit on the ground to near the roof line. Additionally large battering waves of 8-12 ft will accompany this storm surge producing extensive damage to coastal structures. Persons should not under-estimate the potential storm surge threat and how much the sea water is going to rise…just because it is a minimal hurricane. The shape of the coastline in this area and direction of approach along with the long fetch and expanding wind field is going to produce a formidable storm surge event.

The link below is a live camera at Cedar Key, FL and you can clearly see how low the area is and how potentially significant a 4-8 ft storm surge will be in this area.

http://www.ustream.tv/channel/YASbYUZFccF

Expect hurricane force winds to be felt near and just to the east of the center landfall…which may bring hurricane force winds across or very near Tallahassee late tonight. A large area of tropical storm force winds will impact much of central and northern FL into much of central and southern GA into Friday. Tropical storm force winds will then move up the SE US coast into SC and NC Friday afternoon into Saturday and across the mid-Atlantic Saturday night into Sunday. It is too early to determine potential wind impacts over the NE US Sunday into Tuesday as much depends on just how tropical…if at all Hermine remains…or it the system expands outward into an extra-tropical system.

Rainfall amounts of 8-15 inches is likely along and to the right of the track of the center across N FL into SC GA and much of SC/NC. Extensive flooding will be possible over N FL and SC GA into SC over the next 12-24 hours as this sustained rainfall moves inland.

Thu Sep 01, 2016 4:00 pm

982mb now. Things are starting to ramp up on the west side. Getting closer to landfall, going to be close on how intense it gets.

Skyguy · Thu Sep 01, 2016 7:51 pm

srainhoutx wrote:Other than Gaston and Hermine, the Tropics remain quiet for the time being. MIMIC does show a tropical wave that once was 92L over the Central Atlantic and another tropical wave just NE of the Lesser Antilles.

The latest 12Z guidance is rather quiet other than the Canadian that has a myriad spurious TC's spinning up almost everywhere. That said the atmospheric conditions continue to suggest very conducive potential for tropical development, particularly W of 50 Longitude. A very robust MJO Pulse and a vigorous Convectively Coupled Kelvin Wave are in the Western Atlantic Basin slowly progressing Eastbound across the Atlantic Basin, but dry air across the Main Development Region is an inhibiting factor for now.

The Canadian spins up anything and everything. It's consistency with a possible gulf storm is bothering me, though.

Fri Sep 02, 2016 4:39 am

Hermine moved inland early this morning as a 80 MPH Hurricane near Saint Marks, FL and appears to have crossed over Tallahassee. TS Hermine is heading. NE over Southern Georgia at this hour.

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Attention now turns to the East of the Lesser Antilles as a vigorous Tropical Wave has gained convection overnight as dry air that had surrounded the Wave has decreased and conditions have become a bit more favorable for Tropical development as it nears the Lesser Antilles this weekend and enters the Eastern Caribbean Sea early next week. Expect increasing chances for Tropical Development from the National Hurricane Center to commence as the Atmospheric conditions improve with the arrival of a vigorous MJO Pulse and a stout Convectively Coupled Kelvin Wave bring rising air and increasing instability across the Western Atlantic Basin through at least mid September.

Fri Sep 02, 2016 8:02 am

INVEST 92L has been reactivated again. We will be monitoring this Tropical Disturbance very carefully since atmospheric conditions may become rather favorable for Tropical Development as a robust Madden Julian Oscillation Pulse arrives in the Western Atlantic Basin as well as a Convectively Coupled Kelvin Wave generating increasing lift of the atmosphere and greater instability allowing the development of tropical thunderstorms around and near the West tracking Tropical Disturbance, particularly later next week as it travels across the Caribbean Sea.