December 2016- End Of Year Forecast

[srainhoutx]

Arctic chill across Texas this morning shows the lowest temperature of 12F in Dumas and a balmy 74F in Huntsville and along the Lower Rio Grande Valley. Tomorrow will feel much differently than today across the entire Lone Star State.

[srainhoutx]

Looking ahead toward Christmas Eve and Christmas Day, the overnight GFS suggests another shot of Arctic Air arrives Christmas Eve with well below normal temperatures possible Christmas Day. Notice in the first image that the Jet Stream plunges into Texas with a very cold upper trough across the center of the Lower 48. While it is still too soon to know with any certainty exactly what our sensible weather may bring, typically when we see a diving jet stream and a neutral to almost negative tilted trough advancing across Texas, there is some potential for weather worries. We will continue to monitor throughout the coming week. Meanwhile prepare for the Arctic chill headed our way tonight. The latest guidance is suggesting the possibility of freezing temperatures to the Coast early Monday morning if the high clouds delay moving back overhead.

[Portastorm]

Anticipating fropa here in the Austin area around 9 pm tonight. Going to spend today finishing outdoor preps for the hard freeze.

Quick question: I'm told sago palms are good unless temps get below 20 degrees. True?

[srainhoutx]

Anticipating fropa here in the Austin area around 9 pm tonight. Going to spend today finishing outdoor preps for the hard freeze.

Quick question: I'm told sago palms are good unless temps get below 20 degrees. True?

I would wrap them, just to be safe particularly with wind chill values in the teens.

[unome]

wind chill doesn't matter to plants (or pipes) http://msue.anr.msu.edu/news/wind_chill ... to_a_plant

this site http://www.florida-palm-trees.com/sago-palm-tree/ says they are quite cold hardy, even below 20

Cold Tolerance: The Sago Palm can tolerate cold weather down to 5F. Leaves may be damaged and turn yellow at temperatures below 10 degrees. It is great for growing in USDA Zones 7b (5 to 10 F) to 11 (above 40 F).

adding: wind can dry your plants out more quickly, so make sure they are watered well in advance of low temps & wind, so the leaves & branches are hydrated

[redneckweather]

Hmmm, I'm pretty interested in the Christmas front with possible wintry precip breaking out with it? Could we see a sleet pellet or two on Christmas?

[Katdaddy]

The well advertised "Blue Norther" will arrive across SE TX tonight and move off the coast early Sunday morning. Highs around 80F will drop into the low to mid 30s by tomorrow morning with strong gusting N winds especially along the coastal areas. Expect scattered showers and a few thunderstorms ahead of the norther overnight. The main severe weather threat has shifted E into the Mid South .A 45-50F drop in temps across inland areas by tomorrow morning.

For now a tropical December morning is underway across SE TX with record highs possible later this afternoon. Get outside and enjoy Summer before Winter arrives early tomorrow morning.

[Heat Miser]

Hmmm, I'm pretty interested in the Christmas front with possible wintry precip breaking out with it? Could we see a sleet pellet or two on Christmas?

redneck, stop that. Now don't get all excited about those sorts of things.
My prediction based on experience and a cynical outlook; by the time it's cold enough for anything frozen to fall the moisture will have moved out.
I'd like to be wrong.

[skidog44]

6 hours ahead of schedule

[skidog44]

Dallas forecast is 57 at 6 pm, the front is about to blow through

[DoctorMu]

Looking ahead toward Christmas Eve and Christmas Day, the overnight GFS suggests another shot of Arctic Air arrives Christmas Eve with well below normal temperatures possible Christmas Day. Notice in the first image that the Jet Stream plunges into Texas with a very cold upper trough across the center of the Lower 48. While it is still too soon to know with any certainty exactly what our sensible weather may bring, typically when we see a diving jet stream and a neutral to almost negative tilted trough advancing across Texas, there is some potential for weather worries. We will continue to monitor throughout the coming week. Meanwhile prepare for the Arctic chill headed our way tonight. The latest guidance is suggesting the possibility of freezing temperatures to the Coast early Monday morning if the high clouds delay moving back overhead.

I know the models take a pounding, but they've been sniffing out today's front and SOMETHING around Christmas for awhile. Kudos considering the instability of the pattern. Chi-beria in full force within the next 24 hours.

The front should reach CLL about 9 pm and HOU by midnight. Batten down the hatches!

[DoctorMu]

6 hours ahead of schedule

Yep - cold, dense air delivers.


Front reaches Denton now.

[DoctorMu]

wind chill doesn't matter to plants (or pipes) http://msue.anr.msu.edu/news/wind_chill ... to_a_plant

this site http://www.florida-palm-trees.com/sago-palm-tree/ says they are quite cold hardy, even below 20

Cold Tolerance: The Sago Palm can tolerate cold weather down to 5F. Leaves may be damaged and turn yellow at temperatures below 10 degrees. It is great for growing in USDA Zones 7b (5 to 10 F) to 11 (above 40 F).

adding: wind can dry your plants out more quickly, so make sure they are watered well in advance of low temps & wind, so the leaves & branches are hydrated

Spray with water and cover - like they were an orange tree.

[DoctorMu]

lol @ the windmap. Front just barreled through Dallas. Should reach CLL by 7 pm instead of 9.


http://hint.fm/wind/

[Andrew]

Hmmm, I'm pretty interested in the Christmas front with possible wintry precip breaking out with it? Could we see a sleet pellet or two on Christmas?

redneck, stop that. Now don't get all excited about those sorts of things.
My prediction based on experience and a cynical outlook; by the time it's cold enough for anything frozen to fall the moisture will have moved out.
I'd like to be wrong.

Models have been widely inconsistent with that timeframe. They keep going back in forth with upper level low development out west. Even the timing, and depth of a front looks suspicious. Something to watch though. Looks like Christmas day could be one of those transition days where it could be warm for part of the day.

[jasons2k]

Kudos to the NWS for getting the freeze warnings correct this year. Freeze warning tonight for much of the area:

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
223 PM CST SAT DEC 17 2016

...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA...
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA...

.AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT WITH
VERY COLD AIR POURING INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
RAPIDLY TONIGHT AND WITH SOME AREAS FALLING BELOW FREEZING FIRST
IN THE NORTH THEN EXPANDING SOUTHWARD. MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 28 NORTH OF A BRENHAM TO HUNTSVILLE LINE
AND FROM 29 TO 32 SOUTHWARD TO A COLUMBUS TO SEALY TO TOMBALL TO
LIVINGSTON LINE. STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE
NIGHT AND WIND CHILL READINGS OF 18 TO 25 WILL BE COMMON ACROSS
THE WARNED AREA. NORTH WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WILL BE COMMON WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT AND CONTINUING INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS FOR PORTIONS OF AREA. WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

TXZ197>199-210>213-180730-
/O.NEW.KHGX.WI.Y.0014.161218T0400Z-161219T0000Z/
/O.CON.KHGX.FZ.W.0003.161218T0600Z-161218T1600Z/
AUSTIN-COLORADO-GRIMES-HARRIS-MONTGOMERY-WALLER-WASHINGTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BELLVILLE...BRENHAM...BROOKSHIRE...
COLUMBUS...CONROE...EAGLE LAKE...HEMPSTEAD...HOUSTON...HUMBLE...
KATY...NAVASOTA...PASADENA...PRAIRIE VIEW...SEALY...
THE WOODLANDS...TOMBALL...WEIMAR...WILLIS
223 PM CST SAT DEC 17 2016

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST
SUNDAY...
...FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
10 AM CST SUNDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HOUSTON/GALVESTON HAS ISSUED A
WIND ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO
6 PM CST SUNDAY.

* EVENT...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION
TONIGHT WITH VERY COLD AIR POURING INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL RAPIDLY TONIGHT AND WITH AREAS FALLING BELOW FREEZING
FIRST IN THE NORTH THEN EXPANDING SOUTHWARD. MORNING LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 28 NORTH OF A BRENHAM TO
HUNTSVILLE LINE AND FROM 29 TO 32 SOUTHWARD TO A COLUMBUS TO
SEALY TO TOMBALL TO LIVINGSTON LINE. STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AND WIND CHILL READINGS OF 18 TO
25 WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. COLDER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AND A HARD FREEZE WARNING MAY
BE NEEDED FOR PARTS OF THE AREA. NORTH WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH
WILL BE COMMON WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT AND CONTINUING
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS FOR PORTIONS OF AREA. WIND GUSTS OF 30
TO 35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE.

* TIMING...FREEZING TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO BEGIN AROUND 4 AM AND
THEN RISE ABOVE FREEZING BETWEEN 9 AND 10 AM. WIND INCREASING
AROUND MIDNIGHT BECOMING STRONG AND GUSTY AND CONTINUING
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.

* IMPACT...SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE HIGHLY LIKELY TONIGHT.
THESE CONDITIONS WILL KILL CROPS AND OTHER SENSITIVE VEGETATION.
BE SURE TO PROTECT PETS FROM THE COLD. ELEVATED ROADWAYS WILL BE
SUBJECT TO STRONG GUSTY NORTH WINDS THAT MAY MAKE DRIVING
HAZARDOUS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZE WARNING MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE IMMINENT OR
HIGHLY LIKELY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL KILL CROPS AND OTHER
SENSITIVE VEGETATION. PROTECT PETS FROM THE COLD WIND AND DRESS
WARMLY IF YOU WILL BE OUT.

DRIVERS OF VANS...CAMPERS...TRAILERS...AND OTHER HIGH-PROFILE
VEHICLES SHOULD BE ALERT TO THE DANGER OF THESE WINDS...
ESPECIALLY WHEN DRIVING ALONG EAST TO WEST ORIENTED ROADS.

[srainhoutx]

Saturday afternoon briefing from Jeff:

Powerful Arctic Cold Front Blasting Across Texas.

Freeze Warning issued for tonight along and NW of US 59…and likely the entire area Sunday night and Monday morning.

Arctic boundary extends from south of Dallas to NW of Austin and is plowing southeast. Temperatures range from 6 in the panhandle to a record high of 81 at Houston. Temperature falls with the front are averaging 25-30 degrees in about an hour. Front will reach College Station between 1000-1100pm, metro Houston by midnight and blast off the coast by 200-300am. Temperatures will fall into the 40’s rapidly behind the boundary, then the 30’s and 20’s before sunrise. NW winds of 25-35mph will drive wind chills by Sunday AM into the 15-25 degree range.

Given the intensity of this upstream air mass over NW TX where Wichita Falls has already fallen to 26 degrees, expect the freezing line to move into and cover at least the NW 1/3rd to ½ of the region by sunrise Sunday morning. This will be a damaging advective freeze and any sensitive vegetation should be protected this afternoon as best as possible.

It will be very cold by TX standards on Sunday with highs struggling to reach 40 for a few hours. Wind chills Sunday will remain in the 20’s and compared to today’s warm and muggy feel, tomorrow will be a completely different weather day. Models showing some potential for clouds to linger in the post frontal air mass Sunday night into Monday and this may save parts of the area from a hard freeze. Think a second freeze will occur over much of the region Sunday night and Monday morning…including inland portions of the coastal counties. Hard to say just how low the temperatures may fall with scattered to broken clouds and winds still 5-10mph…think mid to upper 20’s most areas is reasonable at this time. Will have to take a hard look at this tomorrow. But a lot of damage to sensitive vegetation will likely be done tonight with a advective type freeze (at least N of I-10).

[TexasBreeze]

That front is past Waco and racing south. I don't see it coming through around 12am. It will be much earlier...

[Heat Miser]

That front is past Waco and racing south. I don't see it coming through around 12am. It will be much earlier...

Just thinking the same thought. From all I'm seeing it looks to blow through Houston/Metro by 9 ish if that late.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Front just smacked me in the face in Palestine... from 78 to 55 in 5 minutes and plunging