here comes the "chill"
http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/zoa/graphob.php ... raphtype=1
December 2016- End Of Year Forecast
Waiting for it, I am trying to stay awake. 
We are ready, brought the plumeria into the garage and wrapped the outside spigot that wasn't already wrapped. The plumeria is the only plant that we really care about, bought the stem in Hawaii years ago. Still quite warm here in Stafford.
We are ready, brought the plumeria into the garage and wrapped the outside spigot that wasn't already wrapped. The plumeria is the only plant that we really care about, bought the stem in Hawaii years ago. Still quite warm here in Stafford.Rain at 10 and Chimney Rock & it's 62 degrees with a northwest wind at 10
I no sooner posted, walked aside, was 76 degrees, walked outside for a few minutes, told dh "here it comes", was 67 when I walked back in 5 minutes later. That wind is pretty wicked!
58.4 degrees here in Richmond.
Raining pretty hard here in Stafford. Glad we are tucked away inside the house.
At 10 and Chimney Rock, now 47 degrees, N wind at 8 and a tenth of rain fell.
We had a 29 degree drop between 10 and 11:15 here in Porter. 48 here now. My husband was sitting on the tailgate of his truck in the front yard when the front blew in. He said it was like the AC kicked on outside lol. Too cool...literally and figuratively. 
No rain, no rainbows.
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Stormrider
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Still 72 degrees in Galveston. For the moment.
we might stay above freezing 
http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/zoa/symmap.php?map=houston
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
530 AM CST Sun Dec 18 2016
.AVIATION...
Cold front has blasted through the region, leaving gusty northerly winds in its wake. Ceilings have begun to rise, and are VFR at all sites, though coastal airports have only just recently improved from MVFR. This ceiling rise has come more rapidly than shown in the guidance, and so will trend that way in the coming hours, though it appears that high clouds may be pretty persistent, as will those northerly winds. Finally, there are numerous radar echoes showing up on radar towards the coast early this morning. As such, I'm conservatively going with VCSH from Hobby coastward until about mid-morning. Not sure how much of the returns on radar are actually reaching the ground though, as only Hobby has reported rain and low level air will only be getting drier from here on out.
Luchs
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 444 AM CST Sun Dec 18 2016/
DISCUSSION...
Cold front has blasted through SE Texas last night and is now in the Gulf of Mexico. Temperatures ahead of the front yesterday afternoon for high temperatures broke records at Houston IAH/HOU and Galveston. College Station was a degree short of tying the record high temperature. Temperatures are now below freezing in College Station with low 40s in Houston. Freezing line was noted from La Grange to Brenham to just north of Huntsville and Lufkin. Radar imagery shows any organized shower activity along the front in the Gulf but there is some light post frontal showers which will be short lived. That is if any of the precip is actually hitting the ground since the arctic airmass is quite dry. Aloft the upper level pattern at 00Z shows a broad upper level trough over the Plains with a stronger embedded shortwave over Oklahoma which has now pushed up into the Midwest shown on water vapor imagery. Short range models show this pattern becoming more zonal today into Monday.
Main concern in the short term will be freezing temperatures this morning. Based on upstream temperatures and HRRR model trends, we think the freezing line should set up roughly from Columbus to Conroe to Livingston. There is more of a cold air push down through central Texas which will cause more of a SW to NE oriented temperature gradient and freezing line. Certainly possible for extreme NW portions of Harris, Montgomery, San Jacinto and Polk Counties that could reach freezing but not quite enough to warrant putting the whole counties in the freeze warning. Burleson and Brazos Counties had not had a killing freeze yet so those counties were added to the current freeze warning. Wind advisory continues through the morning for much of the area and until noon for the coast. This all looks on track with guidance. Wind chill readings are already in the teens and 20s for much of the area. College Station had a wind chill of 15F at 10Z/4AM CST.
Tonight/Monday morning... there is the potential for a Freeze Warning for basically all counties along and south of I-69/US-59 in SE Texas. A Hard Freeze Warning may be needed for Burleson, Brazos, Madison and Houston Counties for minimum temperature below 24F for 2 hrs or more. A Wind Chill Advisory may be needed for those same counties for wind chills below 13F. With that said, there are a couple of forecast issues with the minimum temperature on Monday morning. NAM/GFS show quite a bit of moisture in the 850-700mb layer and expect there to be some cloud cover over the southern half of the forecast area. Clouds could be an issue for how low temperatures get and if they spread farther north then temperatures for the hard freeze could be impacted. There also will be a high cloud canopy which could also play a role with temperatures. Winds will be continue at moderate levels so there will be plenty of mixing in the boundary layer. This means that cold air advection will be the main driver for temperatures Monday morning. Not only that, but the cold advection will be shallow as 850mb temperatures only drop to around 6-10C across the area. That means that at the surface temperatures could be in the 20s while 4000-5000 feet up temperatures are in the mid 40s. In fact the 850mb front may be pushing through now but the temperature gradient is just not that great. We will still give this shallow arctic airmass a good shot at causing freezing temperatures across the area Monday, but temperatures may not be as cold as they could be.
High pressure completely spreads over much of Texas Tuesday morning which will allow for calm winds and clear skies. This would again allow temperatures to fall below freezing for much of the area. Once again 850mb temperatures stay around 8-10C overnight into Tuesday morning. The shallow arctic airmass will again be the driver for the cold but how cold will depend on any modification to the airmass during the day Monday into Monday night. This modification may be offset by better radiational cooling conditions.
The medium range forecast still looks on track with a trough moving across the Plains Wednesday/Thursday time frame. GFS/ECMWF/Canadian are all on similar tracks with timing of the next cold front for Thursday morning. Moisture return still looks rather limited so keep any rain chances along the coast and pushing out quickly.
Beyond Thursday the extended forecast gets really challenging. The 00Z GFS sets up a very deep amplified pattern while the ECMWF is more progressive. Both have very different solutions. There are even large deviations in the GEFS so this leads to using a blended model approach in the extended forecast until a solutions can be sorted out. Rain chances for Christmas weekend are somewhat skewed by the GFS but there are several patterns that support the chance of rain during the coming weekend. Realize this part of the forecast will change the most over the next couple of days.
Overpeck
MARINE...
The strong cold front has passed through Southeast Texas and is now well over the Gulf of Mexico. In its wake are strong northerly winds and rapidly falling temperatures. The Gale Warning is still in effect for all coastal waters, and a low water advisory remains for the bays with no changes at this time. The trajectory of the winds are not quite right for maximum effectiveness in driving water out of the bays, but the flow is still strong. Will continue to monitor wind and tidal observations for guidance on how to best manage the Gale and Low Water.
Though the pressure gradient looks to relax as the front moves farther away from the area, a strong surface high will move eastward well north of us. This will keep it tight enough only for winds to slowly diminish, and a long trailing small craft advisory will likely be needed. But we need to get through this gale before worrying too much about those details. Suffice to say, though winds will be decreasing after this morning, expect breezy conditions through at least Monday and potentially deep into Monday night.
Expect another cold front to pass through the area in the vicinity of Wednesday night. This doesn't look nearly as strong as tonight's front, but may result in meeting small craft thresholds on post-frontal winds on Thursday. Finally, another cold front may be possible around Christmas Eve, but significant differences in model guidance make elaboration on timing or strength difficult at this time.
Luchs
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 38 23 42 27 50 / 0 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 43 29 45 31 51 / 0 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 47 36 46 38 52 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX... Wind Advisory until noon CST today for the following zones:
Brazoria... Chambers... Galveston... Jackson... Matagorda.
Wind Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for the following zones:
Austin... Brazos... Burleson... Colorado... Fort Bend... Harris... Liberty... Waller... Washington... Wharton.
Freeze Warning until noon CST today for the following zones:
Austin... Brazos... Burleson... Colorado... Grimes... Waller... Washington.
GM... Gale Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM... Coastal waters from High Island to Freeport out 20 NM... Galveston Bay... Matagorda Bay... Waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM...nWaters from High Island to Freeport from 20 to 60 NM.
&&
$$
Discussion...39
Aviation/Marine...25
http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/zoa/symmap.php?map=houstonArea Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
530 AM CST Sun Dec 18 2016
.AVIATION...
Cold front has blasted through the region, leaving gusty northerly winds in its wake. Ceilings have begun to rise, and are VFR at all sites, though coastal airports have only just recently improved from MVFR. This ceiling rise has come more rapidly than shown in the guidance, and so will trend that way in the coming hours, though it appears that high clouds may be pretty persistent, as will those northerly winds. Finally, there are numerous radar echoes showing up on radar towards the coast early this morning. As such, I'm conservatively going with VCSH from Hobby coastward until about mid-morning. Not sure how much of the returns on radar are actually reaching the ground though, as only Hobby has reported rain and low level air will only be getting drier from here on out.
Luchs
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 444 AM CST Sun Dec 18 2016/
DISCUSSION...
Cold front has blasted through SE Texas last night and is now in the Gulf of Mexico. Temperatures ahead of the front yesterday afternoon for high temperatures broke records at Houston IAH/HOU and Galveston. College Station was a degree short of tying the record high temperature. Temperatures are now below freezing in College Station with low 40s in Houston. Freezing line was noted from La Grange to Brenham to just north of Huntsville and Lufkin. Radar imagery shows any organized shower activity along the front in the Gulf but there is some light post frontal showers which will be short lived. That is if any of the precip is actually hitting the ground since the arctic airmass is quite dry. Aloft the upper level pattern at 00Z shows a broad upper level trough over the Plains with a stronger embedded shortwave over Oklahoma which has now pushed up into the Midwest shown on water vapor imagery. Short range models show this pattern becoming more zonal today into Monday.
Main concern in the short term will be freezing temperatures this morning. Based on upstream temperatures and HRRR model trends, we think the freezing line should set up roughly from Columbus to Conroe to Livingston. There is more of a cold air push down through central Texas which will cause more of a SW to NE oriented temperature gradient and freezing line. Certainly possible for extreme NW portions of Harris, Montgomery, San Jacinto and Polk Counties that could reach freezing but not quite enough to warrant putting the whole counties in the freeze warning. Burleson and Brazos Counties had not had a killing freeze yet so those counties were added to the current freeze warning. Wind advisory continues through the morning for much of the area and until noon for the coast. This all looks on track with guidance. Wind chill readings are already in the teens and 20s for much of the area. College Station had a wind chill of 15F at 10Z/4AM CST.
Tonight/Monday morning... there is the potential for a Freeze Warning for basically all counties along and south of I-69/US-59 in SE Texas. A Hard Freeze Warning may be needed for Burleson, Brazos, Madison and Houston Counties for minimum temperature below 24F for 2 hrs or more. A Wind Chill Advisory may be needed for those same counties for wind chills below 13F. With that said, there are a couple of forecast issues with the minimum temperature on Monday morning. NAM/GFS show quite a bit of moisture in the 850-700mb layer and expect there to be some cloud cover over the southern half of the forecast area. Clouds could be an issue for how low temperatures get and if they spread farther north then temperatures for the hard freeze could be impacted. There also will be a high cloud canopy which could also play a role with temperatures. Winds will be continue at moderate levels so there will be plenty of mixing in the boundary layer. This means that cold air advection will be the main driver for temperatures Monday morning. Not only that, but the cold advection will be shallow as 850mb temperatures only drop to around 6-10C across the area. That means that at the surface temperatures could be in the 20s while 4000-5000 feet up temperatures are in the mid 40s. In fact the 850mb front may be pushing through now but the temperature gradient is just not that great. We will still give this shallow arctic airmass a good shot at causing freezing temperatures across the area Monday, but temperatures may not be as cold as they could be.
High pressure completely spreads over much of Texas Tuesday morning which will allow for calm winds and clear skies. This would again allow temperatures to fall below freezing for much of the area. Once again 850mb temperatures stay around 8-10C overnight into Tuesday morning. The shallow arctic airmass will again be the driver for the cold but how cold will depend on any modification to the airmass during the day Monday into Monday night. This modification may be offset by better radiational cooling conditions.
The medium range forecast still looks on track with a trough moving across the Plains Wednesday/Thursday time frame. GFS/ECMWF/Canadian are all on similar tracks with timing of the next cold front for Thursday morning. Moisture return still looks rather limited so keep any rain chances along the coast and pushing out quickly.
Beyond Thursday the extended forecast gets really challenging. The 00Z GFS sets up a very deep amplified pattern while the ECMWF is more progressive. Both have very different solutions. There are even large deviations in the GEFS so this leads to using a blended model approach in the extended forecast until a solutions can be sorted out. Rain chances for Christmas weekend are somewhat skewed by the GFS but there are several patterns that support the chance of rain during the coming weekend. Realize this part of the forecast will change the most over the next couple of days.
Overpeck
MARINE...
The strong cold front has passed through Southeast Texas and is now well over the Gulf of Mexico. In its wake are strong northerly winds and rapidly falling temperatures. The Gale Warning is still in effect for all coastal waters, and a low water advisory remains for the bays with no changes at this time. The trajectory of the winds are not quite right for maximum effectiveness in driving water out of the bays, but the flow is still strong. Will continue to monitor wind and tidal observations for guidance on how to best manage the Gale and Low Water.
Though the pressure gradient looks to relax as the front moves farther away from the area, a strong surface high will move eastward well north of us. This will keep it tight enough only for winds to slowly diminish, and a long trailing small craft advisory will likely be needed. But we need to get through this gale before worrying too much about those details. Suffice to say, though winds will be decreasing after this morning, expect breezy conditions through at least Monday and potentially deep into Monday night.
Expect another cold front to pass through the area in the vicinity of Wednesday night. This doesn't look nearly as strong as tonight's front, but may result in meeting small craft thresholds on post-frontal winds on Thursday. Finally, another cold front may be possible around Christmas Eve, but significant differences in model guidance make elaboration on timing or strength difficult at this time.
Luchs
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 38 23 42 27 50 / 0 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 43 29 45 31 51 / 0 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 47 36 46 38 52 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX... Wind Advisory until noon CST today for the following zones:
Brazoria... Chambers... Galveston... Jackson... Matagorda.
Wind Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for the following zones:
Austin... Brazos... Burleson... Colorado... Fort Bend... Harris... Liberty... Waller... Washington... Wharton.
Freeze Warning until noon CST today for the following zones:
Austin... Brazos... Burleson... Colorado... Grimes... Waller... Washington.
GM... Gale Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM... Coastal waters from High Island to Freeport out 20 NM... Galveston Bay... Matagorda Bay... Waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM...nWaters from High Island to Freeport from 20 to 60 NM.
&&
$$
Discussion...39
Aviation/Marine...25
Temps continue to drop here in Richmond my weather station reporting 35.6 windchill 31.3.
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srainhoutx
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cperk wrote:Temps continue to drop here in Richmond my weather station reporting 35.6 windchill 31.3.
That they do. Down to 33F in NW Harris County with a windchill of 25F on my weather station. That is down 2 degrees from on hour ago. Think temperatures will struggle to get out of the 30's today, at least in my area.
Water Vapor imagery suggests a noisy sub tropical jet overhead extending back to Hawaii where a Kona Upper Low is tapping tropical moisture S of the equator. I see a below normal temperature regime throughout the coming week with at least 2 fronts possibly passing across Texas. Looks like the next front arrives on the 22nd/23rd and the next shot of colder air arrives Christmas Eve/Christmas Day depending on which model you choose to believe.
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Hooks hit 32 for just under an hr, officiallysrainhoutx wrote:That they do. Down to 33F in NW Harris County with a windchill of 25F on my weather station. That is down 2 degrees from on hour ago. Think temperatures will struggle to get out of the 30's today, at least in my area.cperk wrote:Temps continue to drop here in Richmond my weather station reporting 35.6 windchill 31.3.
http://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KDWH.html
http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/zoa/getobext.php?sid=KDWH
Wundermap shows many stations nearby still at or below 32 though
https://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/ ... 70&radar=1
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Portastorm
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Have 26 degrees with a wind chill of 15 degrees here in SW Austin. Downright frigid! Coldest airmass in two years.
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Heat Miser
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I see the San Antonio area has a little moisture around, of course white on the radar in this cold. Probably Virga snow.
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Katdaddy
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Temps in the 30s across most of SE TX with 40s along the coastal areas. That was quite a contrast late last night as the "Blue Norther" blasted across SE TX. Strong gusting winds 30-40MPH behind the front took down 2 banana plants. A cold day with mid and high level clouds along with gusty winds along the coast that will slowly subside this afternoon. Temps begin to slowly warm into the 50s and 60s through the week after a very cold Monday and Tuesday morning with the freeze line down to the coastal counties. I do not like the cold but will force myself to go outside and take Bella-rue on a walk and enjoy this cold air. Come on WXman57 you do this.
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My house bottomed-out at 32.5 at 8:20 this morning. 36 now.
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srainhoutx
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You know it is a true Texas Blue Norther when across the Lone Star State there are several 50+ temperature departures the past 24 hours.
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80°F to 26°F this morning
54°F drop as the front overperformed.
We'll be lucky to make it much above freezing - I'll guess 37°F for the high, with continued strong advection and cloudy skies - classic overrun. lol - leaves mostly gone from the trees and my lawn! That wind was howling!
There's a smallish red oak in the front that has been bent towards the north due to prevailing SSW winds in the Spring. Now it's bent in the opposite direction due to 30-40 mph winds last night!
54°F drop as the front overperformed.
We'll be lucky to make it much above freezing - I'll guess 37°F for the high, with continued strong advection and cloudy skies - classic overrun. lol - leaves mostly gone from the trees and my lawn! That wind was howling!
There's a smallish red oak in the front that has been bent towards the north due to prevailing SSW winds in the Spring. Now it's bent in the opposite direction due to 30-40 mph winds last night!