January 2017 -Warming Trend To End The Month

[Stormrider]

Rain and wind just blew through Galveston. Heavy for a few minutes, now tapers off.

Oh yeah, Happy New Year everyone!

[Portastorm]

Here in the general Austin metro area, we had some strong storms but nothing severe around 4-5 am. Rainfall totals averaged about a half inch in Travis County. There was some small hail reported and a few wind gusts near 40-45 mph. And a lot of cloud-to-ground lightning.

With the Pacific front passing, we have a stiff west breeze this morning, bright sunshine, and a warm day on tap. Guess we should enjoy that "warmth" as cold is coming back.

[BlueJay]

It's gorgeous - simply gorgeous outside!
It's like the gloom of winter has been washed away!

[tgal]

Here in the general Austin metro area, we had some strong storms but nothing severe around 4-5 am. Rainfall totals averaged about a half inch in Travis County. There was some small hail reported and a few wind gusts near 40-45 mph. And a lot of cloud-to-ground lightning.

With the Pacific front passing, we have a stiff west breeze this morning, bright sunshine, and a warm day on tap. Guess we should enjoy that "warmth" as cold is coming back.

If you don't mind keeping an extra eye on Hays county as well I would appreciate it. I pay attention to you since my daughter is in San Marcos. If it isn't on her IPhone weather app she has no clue about the weather

[cperk]

srainhoutx Brooks Garner just mentioned the possibility of a little wintry mix toward weeks end,what am i missing.

[mcheer23]

Really off topic....but can srain or someone tell me when the pattern will shift to give Chicago some snow?

[srainhoutx]

srainhoutx Brooks Garner just mentioned the possibility of a little wintry mix toward weeks end,what am i missing.

I will wait until the ECMWF finishes its run for the afternoon and look closer at things. That said there are some significant changes via the various computer guidance and the way they are handling two shortwave upper air disturbances diving S out of Canada Wednesday into the early weekend. Some of the computer models are suggesting temperatures in the upper 30's with a developing Coastal low Thursday night into Friday with a secondary reinforcing shot of modified Arctic air. Odds are always against us this far S, but across Oklahoma and possibly N Texas on E, there may be enough cold air at the surface with enough lift to generate some wintry mischief to our N and E.

[cperk]

srainhoutx Brooks Garner just mentioned the possibility of a little wintry mix toward weeks end,what am i missing.

I will wait until the ECMWF finishes its run for the afternoon and look closer at things. That said there are some significant changes via the various computer guidance and the way they are handling two shortwave upper air disturbances diving S out of Canada Wednesday into the early weekend. Some of the computer models are suggesting temperatures in the upper 30's with a developing Coastal low Thursday night into Friday with a secondary reinforcing shot of modified Arctic air. Odds are always against us this far S, but across Oklahoma and possibly N Texas on E, there may be enough cold air at the surface with enough lift to generate some wintry mischief to our N and E.

Thanks.

[srainhoutx]

Only looking at the 12Z ECMWF solution, the various models indicate a shortwave embedded in the NW flow aloft that is shaded in Red over New Mexico on the PSU charts that may generate some lift as the second shot of modified Canadian Air pushes to the Coast. You can see 'hints' of a NW Gulf Coastal Low down near Brownsville via the Tropical Tidbits charts for Friday morning suggesting some overrunning precipitation may be possible.

01022016 12Z Euro f96.gif

01022017 12Z Euro 96 ecmwf_T850_scus_5.png

[jasons2k]

I had a generous 1.57" this morning, although it was so windy who knows how much more I really got. A great way to kick off 2017!

[brooksgarner]

srainhoutx Brooks Garner just mentioned the possibility of a little wintry mix toward weeks end,what am i missing.

Hey there! Happy New Year!

I'm spotting the potential for another wet-bulbing event. This type of weather setup is obviously a game of roulette in southeast Texas, but the ingredients may be in place.

The scenario includes a EURO-favored setup with low dew points in the teens and 20s near the surface, advecting-in from the north... Liquid rain precip falls from above-freezing layer into the dry air. Said rain evaporates and absorbs latent heat. A layer of air near the surface cools to near freezing and sleet may result if that freezing layer is deep enough.

I see too much warm air aloft for snow flakes here.

So far, GFS keeps low near Colorado the stronger parent low, with a weaker low near the Gulf. The EURO shows a stronger low just offshore, phasing it's power (like an alberta clipper to a noreaster), resulting in an environment more conducive for dynamic cooling. For what it's worth, the Canadian and even Japanese model support this result.

We're four days out, so we'll obviously know more with time...

We've already seen sleet in the Houston view area twice this season. Two thursdays ago in College Station and last Thursday from the Woodlands to Spring. It's not like we're talking about some major, unprecedented event .

See you on the TV side! I love y'alls posts.

[cperk]

Brooks thank you for that explanation.

[DoctorMu]

srainhoutx Brooks Garner just mentioned the possibility of a little wintry mix toward weeks end,what am i missing.

I will wait until the ECMWF finishes its run for the afternoon and look closer at things. That said there are some significant changes via the various computer guidance and the way they are handling two shortwave upper air disturbances diving S out of Canada Wednesday into the early weekend. Some of the computer models are suggesting temperatures in the upper 30's with a developing Coastal low Thursday night into Friday with a secondary reinforcing shot of modified Arctic air. Odds are always against us this far S, but across Oklahoma and possibly N Texas on E, there may be enough cold air at the surface with enough lift to generate some wintry mischief to our N and E.

Now the GFS wants to get back in the action again...with the secondary shot.

[DoctorMu]

Interesting. Euro and GEM have more cold air aloft at 850mb than GFS between CLL and northern Harris Co. So many factors have to work out. Snow is incredibly rare south of Hearne and Huntsville. A sleet mix with with overrun is the typical solution. We've had literally 5 minutes of slot and 2 minutes of snowflakes so far this season.

Volatile continues to be the operative word.

[StormOne]

Interesting. Euro and GEM have more cold air aloft at 850mb than GFS between CLL and northern Harris Co. So many factors have to work out. Snow is incredibly rare south of Hearne and Huntsville. A sleet mix with with overrun is the typical solution. We've had literally 5 minutes of slot and 2 minutes of snowflakes so far this season.

Volatile continues to be the operative word.

I hope the Euro/GEM are right about temps, but not precip. I'm spending the day outside Saturday, and me being the mean Midwesterner I am, will laugh while people complain how cold it is.

[Ptarmigan]

Forecasting snow in Houston is even more complicated than forecasting hurricane landfall.

[Cromagnum]

This is just the 3rd year in a row of the winter that wasn't in Houston. We still havent dipped below 35 degrees at my house since January of 2014.

[Texaspirate11]

How many days til summer? Ugh. Spent Christmas in snow and 29 degree weather. I decided it looks prettier in postcards.

[srainhoutx]

Changeable weather week ahead with today being the warmest and tranquil before a series of cold fronts arrive. The first cold front should move off the Coast early Wednesday morning dropping temperatures back to 50's for highs and chilly 40's for lows.

The much anticipated modified Arctic front arrives Thursday into Friday with gusty northerly winds and temperatures struggling to reach 50F. There is still a great deal of uncertainty regarding the upper air disturbance rounding the base of a deep trough which is sharpened by an Omega Rex Block over Alaska and the NE Pacific. The overnight guidance has trended slightly colder and suggests a Coastal trough of low pressure attempts to develop near Brownsville Thursday night into Friday. Some of the computer models suggest a Coastal low organizes creating overrunning precipitation on Friday as a strong shortwave moves across the Southern Plains. As of this morning, cold and raw weather is expected Friday with temperatures away from the Coast struggling to reach 40F. Further N along the Red River, light snow may develop and depending on the eventual outcome of the timing and strength of the shortwave portions of N Texas to around Shreveport could see some light snow.

Further S, the best guess is just a cold light rain or drizzle possibly mixed with some isolated sleet depending on wet bulbing which could cool the column down enough for ice pellets to form. Best guess for a wintry mix is mainly along and N of HWY 105, but extreme caution is advised as there's a tremendous amount of uncertainty. Stay tuned and we will continue to monitor the future trends as Winter returns to Texas.

[Heat Miser]

Thanks Srain and Brooks.
I'm sticking with my original prediction of a cold rain/drizzle for most of the Houston area. The Red River is around 300 miles away. I'd really like to be surprised, which makes the weather interesting. Either way you slice it it will be miserable.