January 2017 -Warming Trend To End The Month

[Heat Miser]

You folks who love cold weather....you live in the wrong area barring a mini ice age. .
This is southeast Texas after all, a sub-tropical climate.
Thank goodness.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

You folks who love cold weather....you live in the wrong area barring a many ice age. .
This is southeast Texas after all, a sub-tropical climate.
Thank goodness.

Oh, I'm very aware I live in the wrong area for my weather preferences. Life and opportunity have a way of putting us in places that may not be our first choice of comfort weather-wise.

[davidiowx]

You folks who love cold weather....you live in the wrong area barring a many ice age. .
This is southeast Texas after all, a sub-tropical climate.
Thank goodness.

Oh, I'm very aware I live in the wrong area for my weather preferences. Life and opportunity have a way of putting us in places that may not be our first choice of comfort weather-wise.

My sentiments exactly.

[StormOne]

You folks who love cold weather....you live in the wrong area barring a mini ice age. .
This is southeast Texas after all, a sub-tropical climate.
Thank goodness.

Lol this is why I moved to the Midwest for school. If I knew you existed when I registered here I would have named myself "Snow Miser"

[sambucol]

Are we going to get a lot of rain this weekend? Trying to make plans since I have Monday off. Thanks in advance.

[wxman57]

Are we going to get a lot of rain this weekend? Trying to make plans since I have Monday off. Thanks in advance.

It doesn't look like we'll see more than a couple of light sprinkles at times Saturday and Sunday. May not even be enough to wet the ground. Any heavy rain may hold off to Monday or Tuesday, and models are trending lighter with the rain then.

[jojotheidiotclown]

LOVING THIS WEATHER! More heat please. Wouldn't mind record breaking stuff. Summer is in my Texan blood.

[jasons2k]

Article on the cold's effects on the sea turtles:

http://m.chron.com/news/science-environ ... 847457.php

[Ptarmigan]

LOVING THIS WEATHER! More heat please. Wouldn't mind record breaking stuff. Summer is in my Texan blood.

It is winter, so it should be cold. Heat is for summer.

[srainhoutx]

Starting to see some indications in the longer range guidance suggesting a fairly significant pattern change arrives as we near the end of January. It appears a strong Ridge develops across the Gulf of Alaska with a very chilly upper trough invading the Western 2/3rds of the Nation suggesting cold and unsettled weather may return as we near our climatologically favorable period for winter weather lovers. Meanwhile enjoy the warm weather while we have it!

[sambucol]

That's is what I'm talking about!! Yes! Bring in the cold!

[DoctorMu]

Weather for the marathon looks fine. I don't think there will be any threat of thunderstorms until Sunday night. Temperatures look warm for the marathon, though. Around 64-65 for the start of the marathon and upper 60s by 11am. Should be two good cycling days this weekend, too. Highs in the 70s and only a few sprinkles around during the day Saturday & Sunday.

The rain is probably their best bet against overheating.

[Katdaddy]

Another unseasonably warm and muggy January day with partly to mostly clouds, a few showers, and near record high temps. Temps will remain warm through the weekend with coastal sea fog and increasing rain chances through the weekend. Thunderstorm chances increase Sunday night and remain high Monday and Tuesday with the potential for some heavy rains.

[srainhoutx]

Thursday morning briefing from Jeff:

Active weather pattern to bring stormy conditions to SE TX this weekend into next week.

Temperatures likely to remain well above normal with records possible.

Upper level storm systems that have brought incredible snow and rainfall to CA this week will begin to dig southward into the SW US over the weekend. An arctic cold front currently extends from the TX panhandle to central OK and has continued to drive southward even under unfavorable upper level flow. Main questions going forward is when does the cold front arrive into SE TX along with higher rain chances and how much rainfall.

Global models keep the mean trough across the western US into early next week with SW upper level flow across the region and also keep the arctic boundary stalled across NC TX into OK. Reality is suggesting a different story as the arctic boundary is progressing southward steadily this morning under density considerations of the very cold air mass and the boundary is outrunning most is not all computer guidance. Based on trends expect this boundary to continue southward into TX today and possibly even approach our northern counties on Friday. After that it is hard to say with much certainty just how far south the boundary may move over the weekend.

The boundary position becomes important into the weekend as that is where the axis of rainfall will tend to focus as disturbances ride SW to NE along the front. Moisture levels will certainly be high enough to support some good rainfall rates and the slow moving or stalled nature of a front could allow totals to gradually pile up. This is something that will need to be watched over the next few days…needless to say forecast confidence is low.

Early Next Week:
A strong upper level system will eject across the state late Sunday into Monday which will help push the stalled boundary deeper into SE TX. Strong lift across an unseasonably moist air mass looks to promote widespread showers and thunderstorms some of which could become severe. Some of the guidance wants to then stall the front again over SE TX (maybe near the coast) Tuesday and Wednesday as yet another upper level system approaches from the west. This would result in a prolonged rainfall event over the area as moisture overruns the frontal slope with favorable jet stream positions aloft.

While moisture levels are certainly going to be high the uncertainty on where surface features will align is making for a very difficult rainfall forecast on amounts and location. Areas near the coast may see very little rainfall until Monday while inland areas could see rainfall from late Friday through next Wednesday depending on just how far south the front moves before stalling.

For now will go with widespread 1-2 inches, but it is likely these numbers will need to be pushed upward in the coming days.

As for temperatures…for locations south of the front spring will continue with near record highs each day in the upper 70’s to low 80’s. Lows will generally be in the mid to upper 60’s. As dewpoints rise tonight into tomorrow the chances for a prolonged dense sea fog event is looking more likely and this will continue through the weekend and into next week or until a front can move off the coast.

As for the Houston Marathon on Sunday morning….it looks warm and muggy with temperatures in the 60’s and 70’s and a 20% chance of rain.

[tireman4]

Well, the weather will not be conducive to fast times, that is for sure. I think ( I am saying this in relative terms) 2:09 to 2:10 might be a winning time...for the elites...

[Portastorm]

They tell me it is winter. The calendar says January 12. The weather says "spring."

Here in Austin today, we recorded record high temperatures at both the airport (81) and Camp Mabry (79). The previous record came in 2000.

[ticka1]

plants and trees will be budding out if conditions stay warm.

[srainhoutx]

Rain chances increase Sunday night through Wednesday. That should cool us off a few degrees.

[wxman57]

My azaleas were blooming in December. Unfortunately, the winter of 2016-2017 killed my giant banana trees. We're past the worst of it, though. I'm looking forward to a nice 45 mile ride up to Beck's Prime in The Heights for lunch Saturday. It'll be more of a challenge with a good bit of the Brays Bayou trail torn up due to a widening of the bayou.

[Katdaddy]

Yep I am with Wxman57. Sunny and 90F everyday would be perfection.

Another warm and muggy January day ahead for SE TX. Some showers with some thunder are moving across N Harris, Montgomery, and San Jacinto Counties this morning. Messy weather to continue through the weekend.