January 2017 -Warming Trend To End The Month

[srainhoutx]

Friday morning briefing from Jeff:

Record high temperatures were established yesterday at Galveston, Houston, and College Station.

Fairly stagnant upper level pattern will be in place for the next 48 hours with a cold front stalled just to our north and a warm moist southerly flow continuing across the area. While soundings show a saturated layer across the region capped near 850mb, drier low level air will filter into the region from the ESE today and this should help to erode the cloud deck from SE to NW by mid to late morning allowing another warm day with temperatures in the upper 70’s and low 80’s. Streamer showers in progress this morning will gradually end.

The forecast moving forward continues to be of only modest confidence as to the timing of when the best rain chances will occur and how much rain will fall along with any frontal passage. Expect most of the weekend to be on the warm and mostly dry side with just a few showers streaming inland from the Gulf at times.

Moisture begins to increase in earnest late Sunday into Monday as an upper level low ejects across the TX panhandle. Disturbances in the SW flow aloft will move across SE TX increasing lift as the air mass moistens…expect to see an increase in shower and thunderstorms late Sunday north of I-10, but capping will likely limit the southern extent.

A secondary upper level system will drop into the mean trough position over the SW US and eject across TX Monday into Tuesday pushing a weak frontal boundary into the area. Moisture levels increase to near 1.5 inches of PW and upper level winds become strongly divergent and while the surface boundary becomes increasing parallel to the upper level flow. Additionally low level inflow off the Gulf of Mexico will be nearly perpendicular to the low level boundary. Overall the set up favors heavy rainfall along a slow moving boundary with the potential for repeated cell movement (training). We are still over 72 hours out and position and amounts of the heavy rainfall axis are not well defined at this point. Will continue with a widespread 1-3 inches across the area with isolated amounts of 4 inches possible.

While grounds are generally dry, the recent killing hard freeze combined with a lack of evaporation this time of year will result in higher run-off than during the summer, spring, and fall months. Rises on the Brazos and Trinity Rivers look likely given the large scale nature of the rainfall event across the entire basins.

At this time think any severe weather will be isolated with the lacking element being instability although shear values will be strong.

Will maintain highs in the upper 70’s through the entire weekend and likely into a portion of next week with lows in the 60’s. Not 100% confident that the front on Tuesday will make it through the area which would keep it warm into much of next week.

Sea Fog:
Dense sea fog has been bouncing inland overnight and sea fog will be possible at nearly any time over the next 72 hours as high dewpoints advect over the cool nearshore waters.

[srainhoutx]

I continue to see changes brewing in the longer range near January 20th and beyond via the reliable Ensemble guidance, Teleconnenction Indices as well as the Stratospheric Vortex which has remained intact all Fall and Winter to date. Temperatures remain very cold across Eurasia and Siberia and cold air will build across Alaska as a raging Pacific Jet streak races toward the West Coast bringing additional bouts of heavy rainfall and higher elevation snows to California in the shorter term. Very impressive drought busting rains and snowfall have been recorded this week across California. Many of the California highland storage lakes have been refilled after a 10+ year multi year drought. Many of the Western Ski areas are just now reopening after snowfall totals near or exceeding 10 Feet fell since last weekend with Avalanche Control measures underway.

The Longer range MJO forecast via the ECMWF and GFS schemes suggest a wet and stormy pattern begins beyond January 20th. There are also indications that the Stratospheric Polar Vortex may shift more to Europe and begin to split possibly leading to a potential Sudden Stratospheric Warning or Major Mid Winter Warming event where high level winds reverse and often lend to much colder air at the surface where we live. While it is too soon to know exactly what our sensible weather may bring, the indicators we look to are tending to a Major Hemispheric Pattern Change as the end of January nears and we begin February. We will see...

The attachment 01122017 ECMWF MJO ECMF_phase_51m_full.gif is no longer available

[Katdaddy]

A busy weather week on the way. From this morning's AFD update:

Early glance at the models, GFS seems to be holding back another
closed low for next week which will impact how much rain develops
over SE Texas. Rain chances still look good Monday night into
Tuesday but could now get another strong system Thursday into
Friday next week.

[christinac2016]

I was just on the Farmers Almanac website. It shows the southern states, as he puts it, "chilled to the bone and wet." He says February will bring some of the coldest weather. I don't really like seeing muggy temps in January either, but while my mind feels great about the cold weather, my body is not.

[Cromagnum]

It is way too damn hot and humid outside. My shirt is drenched in sweat taking down Christmas lights. Bring on the cold and keep it here.

[srainhoutx]

The Friday afternoon updated Climate Prediction Center Day 8 to 14 and the Week 3 to 4 Outlook suggests changes are brewing in the Extended Range. Enjoy the January 'Thaw' while it lasts.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Thank God. My allergies and comfort level will thank the weather Gods profusely!

[ticka1]

bring it....

[sambucol]

Amen. Ticks. Amen.

[Ptarmigan]

We first reached on January 11. It is rather unusual.

[srainhoutx]

Morning analysis suggest a sneaky cold front that has been responsible for the Ice Storm across the Southern Plains and the Mid Mississippi Valley as drained colder air into Central Texas and the Brazos River Valley in College Station. Do not expect the front to move much further South day as a powerful Storm System moves East from Southern California/Baja Peninsula today setting the stage for strong to severe storms tomorrow across portions of Permian Basin and Central Texas. As the Storm and the associated upper trough near SE Texas Sunday evening there is a chance for a line of thunderstorms to organize and push into our Region early Monday.

The attachment 01142017 SPC day2otlk_0700.gif is no longer available

I continue to see a Major Hemispheric Pattern Change as we end January and begin February as several upper air features all come together suggesting much colder and potentially stormier weather follows. Will look at this Pattern Change more closely in the days ahead. That said be careful getting too anxious trimming those Tropical and tender plants back right now. If much colder air returns as suggested, you could do more harm than good.

[DoctorMu]

The front snuck into CLL about midnight and has camped out.


Cloudy and temperate...I'll take it. I hate running the AC in Jan.

[DoctorMu]

STJ-like


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/nepac/h5-loop-wv.html

[ticka1]

when will thebrains start here in houston area?

[Texaspirate11]

when will thebrains start here in houston area?

supposedly Monday into Tuesday

[srainhoutx]

Sunday morning briefing from Jeff:

Long period of wet weather will plague SE TX this week into next weekend.

Area remains under a moist southerly flow off the Gulf of Mexico with a few showers having developed this morning and spreading northward into the region. Weak frontal boundary which sagged into the western and NW sections of SE TX early Saturday is starting to retreat northward as a warm front while a strong storm system is currently approaching west TX and will sweep through the TX panhandle today and tonight. As this system moves into the southern plains a weak Pacific cool front will move across much of C TX and then stall across SE TX on Monday. Showers and thunderstorms will increase along and ahead of this front this afternoon into tonight and on Monday as shear, moisture, and lift all increase.

Unfortunately this front does not look to have enough push to move off the coast and in fact looks to remain stalled across SE TX for much of the week with numerous upper level disturbances moving across the region aiding lift along the boundary. Expect periods of showers and thunderstorms nearly each day with Tuesday into early Wednesday looking the wettest and again Thursday into Friday. While severe weather will be possible given decent shear, instability will likely be lacking some.

Dense coastal sea fog has broken some this morning with the showers moving inland. Water temperatures have been able to warm to near 60 or the low 60’s this week and with dewpoints in the 60-63 degree range sea fog is looking a bit less likely. Deeper moisture/higher dewpoints may well advect northward from the western Gulf starting on Monday which could return the sea fog, but greater chances for showers will also help keep the coastal air mass a bit better mixed. Overall the threat will remain until a front can limp off the coast sometime toward the end of the week.

Still looking for decent rainfall amounts of 2-4 inches over the next 5 days with much of this tied to the disturbances moving through the area. Additional rainfall will be possible next weekend.

As for temperatures they will remain on the warm side as long as the area remains on the south side of the front. Even with a frontal passage toward Wednesday it looks like temperature only cool to near normal. Long range global models suggest we return to winter toward the last week of January.

[Portastorm]

Looks like several possible periods of severe weather today in south central Texas as a discrete supercell threat exists for later this afternoon and then the storm line/mesoscale complex threat late tonight.

Interesting weather day ahead.

[srainhoutx]

Picked up a half inch of rain the past hour in NW Harris County. The Storm Prediction Center 1630Z Update places potions of the Permian Basin/Central and North Central Texas in a Slight Risk for Severe Storms today which include most of the Metroplex.

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1030 AM CST Sun Jan 15 2017

Valid 151630Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
WEST-CENTRAL/NORTH-CENTRAL TX TO FAR SOUTHERN OK...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and
tonight across parts of west-central to north-central Texas. A few
tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail are anticipated.

...Portions of Texas into southern Oklahoma...
Mid/late morning water vapor satellite imagery shows an
east/northeastward-moving upper low nearing the El Paso/far west TX
vicinity. This low will continue northeastward and increasingly take
on a negative tilt over the southern High Plains. Ahead of this
system, 30-45 kt southerly low-level winds (1-3 km above ground
level) will continue to transport a seasonally moist air mass
northward, with lower 60s F surface dewpoints expected to reach
parts of north-central/northeast TX late today, while some middle
60s F surface dewpoints will reach parts of south-central TX/Hill
Country. Persistent low clouds and continued convection to the north
of a warm front cast some uncertainty on the exact degree of
destabilization later today, particularly with northward extent into
north-central TX and far southern OK.

Current thinking is that increasingly strong thunderstorms should
develop by around mid-afternoon initially across southwest TX in
vicinity of the Permian Basin and western Edwards Plateau. The most
numerous storms through early evening should occur near the
eastward-advancing front across west-central TX. However, sufficient
low-level moisture and modest capping may allow for some
front-preceding surface-based storms to develop late this
afternoon/early evening across the Edwards Plateau/Hill Country
vicinities toward the I-35 corridor of north-central Texas. Given
that deep-layer/low-level shear will be increasing through early
evening, both initial semi-discrete/line-embedded supercells will be
possible ahead of an increasingly prominent linear mode near the
cold front this evening. Bouts of large hail will be possible
especially with initial development across west TX this afternoon,
but damaging winds and isolated tornadoes should become the primary
risks into this evening across a large part of
west-central/north-central TX.

..Guyer/Mosier.. 01/15/2017

[DoctorMu]

Ahhhh, the price to pay for warmer weather this time of the year. A descending low preceded with Spring-like conditions. Loads of streamer showers ahead of the swinging ULL. Mid-level moisture feeding in from the SW and Pacific.

...and the parade slows down a bit. On and off soakings for most of the week.

[srainhoutx]

Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued for portions of the Edwards Plateau/Pecos/Concho Valley Regions of West Central Texas.