LaidOffCVXEngineer wrote:I mentioned that there should be reporting of the dam releasing water to relieve the flooding danger two days ago. However only now on August 27 at 8:40pm it was announced that the two reservoirs (Baken and Addick) would start to release water on Monday August 28 at 2am. Why would it not done earlier? This is adding
more water to the downstream when there is already flooding.
I'm confused. Buffalo Bayou is 7 feet over flood stage at the Beltway with no release, yet you wanted to exacerbate the problem by adding more water earlier?
I'm not real thrilled with any release, at the moment, but I don't have all the facts.
May I suggest that you contact the Corps of Engineers for their analysis. Then please share it here.
BlueJay wrote:This has been a weekend to remember forever.
is additional flooding happening tonight? Radar doesnt look as serious -still a feeder band trying to wrap around. Any thoughts or everyone exhausted and getting rest?
LaidOffCVXEngineer wrote:I mentioned that there should be reporting of the dam releasing water to relieve the flooding danger two days ago. However only now on August 27 at 8:40pm it was announced that the two reservoirs (Baken and Addick) would start to release water on Monday August 28 at 2am. Why would it not done earlier? This is adding
more water to the downstream when there is already flooding.
I'm confused. Buffalo Bayou is 7 feet over flood stage at the Beltway with no release, yet you wanted to exacerbate the problem by adding more water earlier?
I'm not real thrilled with any release, at the moment, but I don't have all the facts.
May I suggest that you contact the Corps of Engineers for their analysis. Then please share it here.
Simply put - the dam can release some water now, or it can release all the water later after the dam fails. The reservoirs don't have an ifinite capacity to hold water.
I don't see how Harvey is going to beat this dry air from the west. I think it may be possible that the dry air will save Houston from receiving as much rain as the current forecast shows
Snowman wrote:I don't see how Harvey is going to beat this dry air from the west. I think it may be possible that the dry air will save Houston from receiving as much rain as the current forecast shows
It's ironic, but possibly the closer the (naked) center moves toward HOU while remaining on land, I believe the less severe precip HGX might see... as the feeder bands slide to the east. Hope our friends in Beaumont and Lake Charles can avoid entraining.
If anybody has any friends or family down in Bay City and they're not aware of the situation, wake them up.
The city just announced a mandatory evacuation of the city by 1 pm tomorrow. Colorado is projected to cause severe flooding in every structure in the city with 10 ft downtown.
I know 35 wasn't far from already being impassabalreadyy van vleck.
Morning Update 3 Day Weather Prediction Center Quantitative Precipitation Forecast suggests an additional 20 inches of rainfall may be possible across our Region. The Mesoscale guidance continues to paint an ominous picture as Harvey attempts to stregthen a little as it moves back offshore and concentrate heavy showers/thunderstorms around the center on its Northern and Eastern quadrants making its second landfall somewhere near Galveston Island and Chambers County. Winds are gusting to near 35 hours across NW Harris County at this hour.
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Gusty winds increasing across NW Harris County this hour radar suggests a new feeder band is organizing across Fort Bend, Western Harris and Southern Waller Counties. The 06 Z GFS suggests additional 20 inches possible through hour 66.
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Rip76 wrote:I'm assuming the center is around the coastline at the moment.
Appears so. GOES 16 suggests Harvey has moved across Matagorda Bay and heading offshore in far Western Matagorda County.
Tropical Storm Harvey Local Statement Advisory Number 32
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX AL092017
428 AM CDT Mon Aug 28 2017
This product covers Southeast Texas
**LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING CONTINUES OVER SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS**
NEW INFORMATION
---------------
* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
- None
* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
- A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Brazoria, Chambers,
Galveston, Harris, Jackson, Liberty, and Matagorda
* STORM INFORMATION:
- About 20 miles west of Matagorda TX
- 28.6N 96.3W
- Storm Intensity 40 mph
- Movement Southeast or 130 degrees at 3 mph
SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------
The life-threatening flooding event around the Houston metro
continues through tonight, as water rescues are still occurring in the
area. Though comparatively less rainfall has fallen across the area
tonight than last night, this speaks more to the unfathomable amount
of rainfall last night. Per observations, a widespread 3 to 7 inches
of rain has still fallen in the past six hours across much of the
area, with more to the east of the Houston metro around I-10. Given
the completely saturated ground, this amount of rainfall and future
expected heavy rainfall will keep the flooding threat at the forefront
of this storm. Tornadoes have also been occurring, and while their
rate has slowed overnight, this threat will continue as well. Coastal
flooding may be an ongoing issue along the coast where winds will
continue to push water onshore, particularly south of Sargent.
Elevated tides will cause the recession of coastal flood waters to be
slow, likely lasting into the first part of the week. As Harvey drifts
back towards the Gulf, the potential for tropical storm force winds
will also extend up the coastline. Ultimately, of the multiple hazards
present with this storm, the greatest threat to life and property
remains the ongoing extreme rainfall and its consequent prolonged and
catastrophic flash flooding event.
POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------
* FLOODING RAIN:
Potential impacts from the flooding rain are still unfolding in and
near the Houston metro area. Remain well guarded against
life-threatening flood waters having additional
devastating impacts. If realized, these impacts include:
- Extreme rainfall flooding may prompt numerous evacuations and
rescues.
- Rivers and tributaries may overwhelmingly overflow their banks
in many places with deep moving water. Small streams, creeks,
canals, and ditches may become raging rivers. Flood control
systems and barriers may become stressed.
- Flood waters can enter numerous structures within multiple
communities, some structures becoming uninhabitable or washed
away. Numerous places where flood waters may cover escape
routes. Streets and parking lots become rivers of raging water
with underpasses submerged. Driving conditions become very
dangerous. Numerous road and bridge closures with some weakened
or washed out.
Potential impacts from the flooding rain are still unfolding across
Southeast Texas. Remain well guarded against life-threatening flood
waters having additional significant to extensive impacts.
* SURGE:
Potential impacts from the main surge event are now unfolding across
the Upper Texas Coast. Remain well away from locally hazardous
surge having possible limited impacts. If realized, these impacts include:
- Localized inundation with storm surge flooding mainly along
immediate shorelines and in low-lying spots, or in areas
farther inland near where higher surge waters move ashore.
- Sections of near-shore roads and parking lots become overspread
with surge water. Driving conditions dangerous in places where
surge water covers the road.
- Moderate beach erosion. Heavy surf also breaching dunes, mainly
in usually vulnerable locations. Strong rip currents.
- Minor to locally moderate damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks,
and piers. A few small craft broken away from moorings.
* WIND:
Potential impacts from the main wind event are now unfolding across
the immediate Upper Texas Coast. Remain well sheltered from dangerous
wind having possible significant impacts. If realized, these impacts include:
- Some damage to roofing and siding materials, along with damage
to porches, awnings, carports, and sheds. A few buildings
experiencing window, door, and garage door failures. Mobile
homes damaged, especially if unanchored. Unsecured lightweight
objects become dangerous projectiles.
- Several large trees snapped or uprooted, but with greater
numbers in places where trees are shallow rooted. Several
fences and roadway signs blown over.
- Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban
or heavily wooded places. A few bridges, causeways, and access
routes impassable.
- Scattered power and communications outages, but more prevalent
in areas with above ground lines.
Potential impacts from the main wind event are also now unfolding
across the rest of Southeast Texas. Remain well sheltered from
hazardous wind having additional limited impacts.
* TORNADOES:
Potential impacts from tornadoes are still unfolding across Southeast Texas,
primarily around the Houston metro and eastward. Remain well braced against
a tornado event having additional limited impacts. If realized,
these impacts include:
- The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution
of emergency plans during tropical events.
- A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power
and communications disruptions.
- Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, chimneys
toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned,
large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow-rooted trees
knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats
pulled from moorings.
Elsewhere across Southeast Texas, little to no impact is anticipated.
* EVACUATIONS:
Do not return to evacuated areas until
hazardous winds diminish and flood waters abate.
* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
Now is the time to remain safely sheltered from the storm. Stay
inside and away from windows. Listen for updates and be ready in case
you lose electrical power. Locate your battery powered radio and
flashlight from your Emergency Supplies Kit. Keep these items close.
During the peak of the storm, keep your shoes on and rain gear handy.
Boots and tennis shoes offer the best foot protection if you become
unexpectedly exposed to the elements.
Continue to keep your cell phone well charged for as long as
possible. If you lose power, use it more sparingly and mainly for
personal emergencies and check-ins. Do not overload communications
systems with idle chatter.
Do not be a thrill seeker or risk your life for senseless photos or
videos. Be wise and avoid becoming another statistic.
Be ready to move to the identified safe room if a tornado warning is
issued. Quickly move to an interior room on the lowest safe floor.
Put as many sturdy walls between you and the storm as you can.
Protect your head and body.
* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For information on creating an emergency plan see getagameplan.org
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org
NEXT UPDATE
-----------
The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Houston/Galveston TX around 10 AM CDT, or sooner if
conditions warrant.
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Has anyone notice that the models have most of Harvey's moisture on the west side of the center? It seems even if we're on the clean side, most of the moisture is confined to the west side of the center. I think it could be because of dry air inhibiting development on the east side of the center. Cindy kinda did the same thing the day of landfall.
7:00 AM CDT Intermediate Advisory issued. I should note that I have been receiving near Tropical Storm strength wind gusts since 4:00 AM here in NW Harris County. I have two peak gusts to 38 MPH and a lot of 35 MPH gusts. These gust are not associated with convective activity nearby. As Harvey enters the Gulf in Western Matagorda County, others main see these winds as well.
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Harvey Intermediate Advisory Number 32A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
700 AM CDT Mon Aug 28 2017
...CENTER OF HARVEY EMERGING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...
...LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING CONTINUES OVER SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
...DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL IN THE AFFECTED AREAS IF YOU ARE IN
A SAFE PLACE AND DO NOT DRIVE INTO FLOODED ROADWAYS...
SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.6N 96.1W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM NE OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SE OR 130 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Mesquite Bay to High Island
Catastrophic and life-threatening flooding continues in southeastern
Texas, and flash flood emergencies are in effect for portions of
this area. Please see warnings and other products issued by your
local National Weather Service office for additional information on
this life-threatening situation.
Interests elsewhere along the upper Texas coast and in southwestern
Louisiana should continue to monitor the progress of Harvey.
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Harvey was
located near latitude 28.6 North, longitude 96.1 West. Harvey is
moving toward the southeast near 3 mph (6 km/h) and a slow
southeastward motion is expected today. A slow northeastward motion
is expected to begin on Tuesday. The center of Harvey is emerging
off of the middle Texas coast, and it is expected to remain just
offshore through Tuesday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Slight restrengthening is possible later today and Tuesday.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
from the center.
The minimum central pressure estimated from surface observations
along the Texas coast is 997 mb (29.44 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Harvey is expected to produce additional rainfall
accumulations of 15 to 25 inches through Friday over the upper Texas
coast and into southwestern Louisiana. Isolated storm totals may
reach 50 inches over the upper Texas coast, including the Houston/
Galveston metropolitan area. These rains are currently producing
catastrophic and life-threatening flooding, and flash flood
emergencies are in effect for portions of southeastern Texas.
DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL IN THE AFFECTED AREA IF YOU ARE IN A SAFE
PLACE. DO NOT DRIVE INTO FLOODED ROADWAYS. Please see warnings and
products issued by your local National Weather Service office for
additional information on this life-threatening situation.
Elsewhere, Harvey is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
5 to 15 inches farther south into the middle Texas coast, farther
west toward the Texas Hill Country, and farther east across south-
central Louisiana.
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is
expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...
Port Aransas to Morgan City including Galveston Bay...1 to 3 ft
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near the
area of onshore winds. Surge-related flooding depends on the
relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary
greatly over short distances. For information specific to your
area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring in rain bands well to
the east of the center of Harvey, including portions of the tropical
storm warning area along the coast. Tropical storm conditions are
likely to persist in areas of onshore winds within the warning area
during the next couple of days.
SURF: Swells generated by Harvey are affecting the coasts of Texas
and Louisiana. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.
TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible today and tonight from the
upper Texas coast across parts of southwestern and south-central
Louisiana.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.
$$
Forecaster Beven
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Public Information Statement
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
715 AM CDT Mon Aug 28 2017
...Harvey leads to August 2017 Being the Wettest Month on Record...
Rainfall was extreme yesterday and the city of Houston (Bush IAH)
established a new daily rainfall record with 16.07 inches. It is the
single highest daily rainfall total in city history. In the last two
days, 24.44 inches of rain has fallen. August 2017 is now the
wettest August on record and also the wettest month all time beating
June 2001 (Tropical Storm Allison).
Since June 1st, Houston has received 46.16 inches of rain which is
about 33 inches above normal. The annual average rainfall for
Houston is 49.77 inches, so roughly a years worth of rain has fallen
in the last three months.
College Station recorded 7.45 inches of rain yesterday which is now
the wettest day ever recorded in the month of August and it is the
4th wettest day all time.
...Daily Rainfall Totals Over last Three Days...
Friday Saturday Sunday Fri.-Sun.
Location 1 Day 2 Day 3 Day Event Total
City of Houston 0.39 8.37 16.07 24.83
(Wettest 2 day and 3 day total in recorded history)
Houston Hobby 1.41 12.07 10.99 24.47
(Wettest 2 day and 3 day total in recorded history)
Galveston 2.80 4.12 3.49 10.41
College Station 0.12 4.86 7.45 12.43
Angleton 7.10 2.12 3.05 12.27
Freeport 1.97 4.85 M 6.82
Richmond 6.68 11.03 M 17.71
Liberty 11.20 17.90 M 29.10
Wharton 7.74 5.28 M 13.02
Brenham 2.55 5.60 M 8.15
Houston Westbury 2.98 12.73 M 15.71
Nearly all major watersheds in Harris County were out of banks
during the peak and aftermath of Saturday night's deluge. Many of
Harris County bayous remain high but some of the smaller basins have
begun to recede. Larger streams and rivers continue to rise and many
of these are projected to reach record high crests. Cypress Creek
continues to rise and may breach a levee near Inverness Forest. The
Addicks and Barker Reservoirs are forecast to reach new record high
values and releases from the reservoirs have begun. This will add to
the flow of Buffalo Bayou.
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