August 2017: Looking Back at Harvey 5 Year Later

[Rip76]

Morning everyone.
Hope everyone is fairing well this morning.

Just curious, what is the best website for road closures, flooded roads, and evacuations?

Thanks in advance and be safe.

[unome]

Morning everyone.
Hope everyone is fairing well this morning.

Just curious, what is the best website for road closures, flooded roads, and evacuations?

Thanks in advance and be safe.

your profile doesn't say where you are, but http://readyharris.org/ has links to just about anything you might need

[srainhoutx]

[cperk]

Morning everyone.
Hope everyone is fairing well this morning.

Just curious, what is the best website for road closures, flooded roads, and evacuations?

Thanks in advance and be safe.

Go to the TxDot website.

[Rip76]

Thank you.

I'm in Pearland.

[unome]

7:00 AM CDT Intermediate Advisory issued. I should note that I have been receiving near Tropical Storm strength wind gusts since 4:00 AM here in NW Harris County. I have two peak gusts to 38 MPH and a lot of 35 MPH gusts. These gust are not associated with convective activity nearby. As Harvey enters the Gulf in Western Matagorda County, others main see these winds as well.

Barker Cypress / Huffmeister area - gusting here this morning also, but negligible rain - now just hoping the gusts don't take down trees in water-logged ground. Centerpoint is busy ! http://gis.centerpointenergy.com/outage ... ge_Callout

[srainhoutx]

7:00 AM CDT Intermediate Advisory issued. I should note that I have been receiving near Tropical Storm strength wind gusts since 4:00 AM here in NW Harris County. I have two peak gusts to 38 MPH and a lot of 35 MPH gusts. These gust are not associated with convective activity nearby. As Harvey enters the Gulf in Western Matagorda County, others main see these winds as well.

Barker Cypress / Huffmeister area - gusting here this morning also, but negligible rain - now just hoping the gusts don't take down trees in water-logged ground. Centerpoint is busy ! http://gis.centerpointenergy.com/outage ... ge_Callout

Yeah NWS Houston/Galveston thought it was rather impressive when a reported it this morning via chat. That's an issue we all need to remember with the ground totally saturated. There at reports this morning of trees coming down. GOES 16 Visible Loop Imagery suggest Harvey is mostly offshore near the very West end of Matagorda County.

[Rip76]

Starting to train up I-45 again.

[Freeporttx3334]

Freeport seems to have missed most of the flooding rains..my main concern now is the Brazos river coming out of its banks

[srainhoutx]

First Visible Image of Harvey @ 13:37Z

[srainhoutx]

Philip Klotzbach‏Verified account @philklotzbach · 31m31 minutes ago
#Harvey still a named storm 59 hr after landfall - the longest a TX landfalling #hurricane remained a NS after landfall on record.

[TexasBreeze]

Harris County and Galveston county convection on the increase again. Watching showers/ bands around the center too.

[srainhoutx]

SIenna Plantation in Ft. Bend county now under MANDATORY Evacuation order
Determine safe route - Pack essentials - take your pets

[unome]

Harvey's radar from GOM to today - speed it up w/slider

https://tinyurl.com/LifeOfHarveyRadar

[srainhoutx]

Tropical Storm Harvey Discussion Number 33
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
1000 AM CDT Mon Aug 28 2017

Radar and surface data indicate that the center of Harvey is near
or just off the Texas coast south of Matagorda. The system
currently has only disorganized convection near the center, with the
primary deep convection in a band well to the east of the center.
The initial intensity remains 35 kt based on a minimum central
pressure around 997 mb and the assumption that stronger winds aloft
seen on the Houston WSR-88D are mixing down to the surface in the
stronger bands.

While the convection is currently poorly organized, very heavy rains
and life-threatening flash flooding continue over southeastern Texas
and southwestern Louisiana. There have been reports of 2-day
rainfall totals of close to 30 inches in the Greater Houston area.
With the additional rains that are expected over the next several
days, rainfall totals could reach 50 inches in some locations, which
would be historic for the area.

Due to the current structure, a dry slot seen in water vapor
imagery over the southern part of the circulation, and the lack of
intensification shown by the intensity guidance, only slight
strengthening is anticipated while Harvey remains over the Gulf of
Mexico. The new intensity forecast is an update of the previous
one.

Radar and surface observations indicate that the center is moving
slowly southeastward, or 125/4 kt. A mid-level trough dropping
into the Ohio Valley should cause Harvey to turn toward the east
and northeast and move back over land in a couple of days. There
is little change to the forecast track from the previous advisory,
and the new track remains close to the dynamical model consensus.


Key Messages:

1. Ongoing catastrophic and life-threatening flooding will continue
across southeastern Texas. Additional rainfall accumulations of 15
to 25 inches are expected across the upper Texas coast, with
isolated storm totals as high as 50 inches. Please heed the advice
of local officials. Do not attempt to travel if you are in a safe
place, and do not drive into flooded roadways. Refer to products
from your local National Weather Service office and the NOAA Weather
Prediction Center for more information on the flooding hazard. A
summary of rainfall totals compiled by the Weather Prediction Center
can be found at: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html

2. The flood threat is spreading farther east into Louisiana.
Additional rainfall amounts of 15 to 25 inches are expected in
southwestern Louisiana, with rainfall amounts of 5 to 15 inches
expected in south-central Louisiana and 5 to 10 inches in
southeastern Louisiana. Please heed the advice of local officials
and refer to products from your local National Weather Service
office and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center for more information
on the flooding hazard in these areas.

3. While Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings have been extended
eastward to the coast of Louisiana, the impacts of winds and storm
surge are expected to be secondary compared to that of the rains.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/1500Z 28.5N 96.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 29/0000Z 28.1N 95.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 29/1200Z 28.1N 95.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 30/0000Z 28.5N 94.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 30/1200Z 29.4N 94.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 31/1200Z 31.5N 93.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
96H 01/1200Z 33.5N 92.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
120H 02/1200Z 35.5N 90.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Beven

[srainhoutx]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Harvey Advisory Number 33
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
1000 AM CDT Mon Aug 28 2017

...CENTER OF HARVEY MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD NEAR THE TEXAS
COAST...
...LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING CONTINUES OVER SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
...DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL IN THE AFFECTED AREAS IF YOU ARE IN
A SAFE PLACE AND DO NOT DRIVE INTO FLOODED ROADWAYS...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.5N 96.0W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM ENE OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SE OR 125 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued east of High Island,
Texas, to Cameron, Louisiana.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued east of Cameron to
Intracoastal City, Louisiana.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Mesquite Bay to Cameron

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East of Cameron to Intracoastal City

Catastrophic and life-threatening flooding continues in southeastern
Texas. Please see warnings and other products issued by your
local National Weather Service office for additional information on
this life-threatening situation.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the middle and upper Texas coast and in
southern Louisiana should continue to monitor the progress of
Harvey.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Harvey was
located near latitude 28.5 North, longitude 96.0 West. Harvey is
moving toward the southeast near 5 mph (7 km/h), and a slow motion
toward the southeast is expected through tonight. A gradual turn
toward the northeast and a continued slow forward speed are expected
Tuesday and Tuesday night. On the forecast track, the center of
Harvey is expected to be just offshore of the middle and upper
coasts of Texas through Tuesday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slow intensification is possible during the next 48 hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
mainly to the east of the center.

The minimum central pressure estimated from surface observations
along the Texas coast is 997 mb (29.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Harvey is expected to produce additional rainfall
accumulations of 15 to 25 inches through Friday over the upper Texas
coast and into southwestern Louisiana. Isolated storm totals may
reach 50 inches over the upper Texas coast, including the Houston/
Galveston metropolitan area. These rains are currently producing
catastrophic and life-threatening flooding over large portions
of southeastern Texas. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL IN THE AFFECTED
AREA IF YOU ARE IN A SAFE PLACE. DO NOT DRIVE INTO FLOODED
ROADWAYS. Please see warnings and products issued by your local
National Weather Service office for additional information on this
life-threatening situation.

Elsewhere, Harvey is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
5 to 15 inches farther south into the middle Texas coast and farther
east across south-central Louisiana. Rainfall amounts of 5 to 10
inches are expected in southeast Louisiana.

A list of rainfall observations compiled by the NOAA Weather
Prediction Center can be found at:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is
expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Port Aransas to Morgan City including Galveston Bay...1 to 3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near the
area of onshore winds. Surge-related flooding depends on the
relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary
greatly over short distances. For information specific to your
area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring in rain bands well to
the east of the center of Harvey, including portions of the tropical
storm warning area along the coast. Tropical storm conditions are
likely to persist in areas of onshore winds within the warning area
during the next couple of days, and are possible in the watch area
by Wednesday.

SURF: Swells generated by Harvey are affecting the coasts of Texas
and Louisiana. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible today and tonight from
extreme southeast Texas across parts of southern Louisiana.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

[GBinGrimes]

Driving in from Anderson to College Station this morning, a lot has changed from yesterday.

Numerous snapped trees on County Roads north of 90, must have been a wind event during the overnight hours as they were not there yesterday afternoon.

Holland Creek and Spring Creek are well out of bank along highway 90 between Anderson and Navasota. Pastures in the area a now lakes and streams.

Between Navasota and College Station, the Navasota River has risen to about 15 feet from the bridge and is flooding surrounding pastures. Peach Creek and Jones Creek are well out of bank also and both less than 10 feet from going over their bridges. It looks like a lake along both sides of 6 almost to the Texas World Speedway exit heading north on 6. No where else for the water to go except up and further out.

With Harvey sending more wraparound rain now coming in from the Northeast, there is not much more water that this area can take, and then it has to go downstream. Mercy, this is unbelievable.

[snowman65]

Might be a silly question but is it possible the gulf runs out of deep enough moisture to produce the projected rain totals through Wed??

[don]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
950 AM CDT MON AUG 28 2017

The National Weather Service in League City has issued a

* Flash Flood Warning for...
Northwestern Galveston County in southeastern Texas...
Northeastern Fort Bend County in southeastern Texas...
North central Brazoria County in southeastern Texas...
Northwestern Chambers County in southeastern Texas...
Southeastern Harris County in southeastern Texas...

* Until 1145 AM CDT.

* At 948 AM CDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing
heavy rain across the warned area which also includes the
already flooded Clear Creek watershed. Flash flooding is expected.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Pasadena, Pearland, League City, Sugar Land, Baytown, Missouri
City, Texas City, Friendswood, La Porte, Deer Park, Alvin,
Dickinson, Stafford, South Houston, Bellaire, West University
Place, Seabrook, Galena Park, Jacinto City and Webster.

[GBinGrimes]

This first visible image of Harvey today...at a loss for words.