August 2017: Looking Back at Harvey 5 Year Later

[jasons2k]

Looking pretty bad for the Beaumont area.

[jasons2k]

JeffL. is still up and reporting on (another station)..Addicks: 107.17 ft.

[djmike]

Beaumont here. High water rescues now taking place. Water in homes and vehicles. Closing in on 8" in last 2 hours and its raining harder now than i have ever seen. Weve got to be nearing our 30" Soon. Been without power for over 24 hrs now. Havent been too nervous so far during this event but tonight at 329am Im worried ill see water in my home soon. Prayers for all in its path. My nerves are shot. Ive been thru rita (eye) and Ike (eye) and tor the first time im getting nervous about the water.

[Ounce]

The below is from the HCFWS for Buffalo Bayou at the Beltway.
My question is: Will "Tip of Orifice" be the highest stream depth to be measured, until it gets below Tip of Orifice? The level for the bayou at this location at 3:17 a.m. was 70.11' and has not reported a new figure.

Stream Elevation Sensor 2269
W100_2270 Buffalo Bayou @ West Beltway 8
Key Map 489M
Sensor ID 2269
Sensor Type USGS Radar
Installed 5/2/1988
Top of Bank (TOB) 62.20'
Bottom of Stream 34.71'
Tip of Orifice 70.11'
Measuring Plate 71.93'
External Link USGS
Benchmark 70.12'
RM 210155 stamped W100 BM05 located on the downstream sidewalk of north bound feeder lanes at stream centerline, 1988 NAVD, 2001 adjustment. 78 to 01 adjustment -1.90
As of July 1, 2007, the elevation datum was changed from 1929 NGVD, 1978 adjustment to the 1988 NAVD, 2001 adjustment.

[srainhoutx]

Just posted on Facebook by Jeff:

Addicks will begin to flow over its N spillway this morning, expecting peak flow of 4500cfs over the spillway tomorrow

[srainhoutx]

Harvey is S of Galveston by about 90 Miles. Here is the 4 AM Track Graphic.

[srainhoutx]

[srainhoutx]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
632 AM CDT Tue Aug 29 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Tropical Storm Harvey's position is about 100 miles east southeast
of Port O'Connor with the latest band of convection hitting
Bolivar and Galveston Island putting down 1 to near 2.5 inch per
hour rates. The persistent 20-25G40 kt (near coastal) wind has
maintained a near 4 foot water level on the bay side with web
cams currently showing Strand street flooding. This banding will
be commonplace today...dropping a quick 1 to 2 inches on their
east-to-west passage. As the broad center of TS Harvey moves by
Galveston Island through the day expect these bands to mainly
impact the southeastern forecast area or those counties surrounding
Galveston Bay. Much lower rainfall rates of between 1 to 2 inches
will equate to less of a flooding threat. 2 to 4 inches with
localized 7 to 8 inches are expected over these extreme southeastern
counties. The southeastern counties most impacted by Harvey's
catastrophic flooding (Harris, Fort Bend, Galveston) are forecast
to pick up another 2 to 3 inches today...and then another 2 to
possibly 3 inches tomorrow. Thus...we are not completely out of
the woods but we can see the light of coming out on the other
side of this unprecedented rainfall/flooding tropical event. The 3
to 4 day rainfall totals of greater than 40 inches (possible 50
inches in locations surrounding Santa Fe and Dickinson) are simply
mind-blowing that has lead to the largest flood in Houston-Galveston
history. From its rapid intensification from a wave to a Category
4 landfall in less than 60 hours to producing the most extreme
tropical storm flooding the Houston region has ever gone through...
this beast will be making landfall as a tropical storm along the
Texas-Louisiana coast tomorrow morning.

This historic flooding that has taken lives and will likely be the
largest economic U.S. natural disaster (certainly the costliest
hurricane) will transition from being a extreme flash flooding
event to a longer-lived (record level) river and bayou flooding
episode. Late week into Labor Day weekend weather becomes benign
with slight to low end chance POPs to account for redeveloping
precipitation left in Harvey's trailing trough. Highs will average
in the upper 80s...minimums in the low to mid 70s (low to mid 70
dew points to keep early September feeling like...well...early
September). I hate to even mention this feature but the GFS (and
Euro to a degree) develops and moves a tropical wave/low northward
into our waters through the weekend. Let's hope it's an aberration.
31

&&

.MARINE...
Tropical Storm Harvey is now 100 miles east of Port O'Connor and is
slowly moving east. Harvey will beginning moving northeast later
today. Expect seas to build today with winds increasing into the 30
to 40 knot range. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue
along with the threat of waterspouts. Harvey is expected to make
landfall Wednesday afternoon in southwest Louisiana.

Elevated water levels (2-4 feet above normal) will continue along
the immediate coast and in the bays into Wednesday. River and Bayou
drainage is causing water levels in the Houston Ship Channel to
continue to rise. 33

[srainhoutx]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Harvey Intermediate Advisory Number 36A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
700 AM CDT Tue Aug 29 2017

...CONTINUED HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY IS EXPECTED TO WORSEN THE
FLOOD SITUATION IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...
...DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL IN THE AFFECTED AREAS IF YOU ARE IN
A SAFE PLACE, AND DO NOT DRIVE INTO FLOODED ROADWAYS...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.2N 94.6W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM ESE OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM SSW OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Mesquite Bay to Intracoastal City

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Port Bolivar to Morgan City

Catastrophic and life-threatening flooding continues in southeastern
Texas and portions of southwestern Louisiana. Please see warnings
and other products issued by your local National Weather Service
office for additional information on this life-threatening
situation.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

Interests elsewhere along the middle and upper Texas coast and in
southern Louisiana should continue to monitor the progress of
Harvey.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Harvey was
estimated near latitude 28.2 North, longitude 94.6 West. Harvey is
moving toward the east-northeast near 3 mph (6 km/h), and this
motion is expected to continue through this morning. A turn toward
the northeast is expected later today and tonight, followed by a
turn toward the north-northeast on Wednesday. On the forecast
track, the center of Harvey is expected to be just offshore of the
middle and upper coasts of Texas through tonight, then move inland
over the northwestern Gulf coast on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48
hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Harvey is expected to produce additional rainfall
accumulations of 7 to 13 inches through Friday over parts of the
upper Texas coast into southwestern Louisiana. Isolated storm
totals may reach 50 inches over the upper Texas coast, including the
Houston/Galveston metropolitan area. These rains are currently
producing catastrophic and life-threatening flooding over large
portions of southeastern Texas and southwestern Louisiana. DO NOT
ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL IN THE AFFECTED AREA IF YOU ARE IN A SAFE PLACE.
DO NOT DRIVE INTO FLOODED ROADWAYS. Please see warnings and
products issued by your local National Weather Service office for
additional information on this life-threatening situation.

Elsewhere, Harvey is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
5 to 15 inches farther east across south-central Louisiana.
Rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches are expected in southeast
Louisiana and coastal Mississippi and Alabama.

A list of rainfall observations compiled by the NOAA Weather
Prediction Center can be found at:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is
expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Mesquite Bay to Morgan City including Galveston Bay...1 to 3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near the
area of onshore winds. Surge-related flooding depends on the
relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary
greatly over short distances. For information specific to your
area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring over portions of
the warning area along the coast. Tropical storm conditions are
likely to persist within the warning area during the next couple of
days.

SURF: Swells generated by Harvey are affecting the coasts of Texas
and Louisiana. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible through tonight from
extreme southeast Texas across southern Louisiana, southern
Mississippi and extreme southwestern Alabama.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila

[Ounce]

Just posted on Facebook by Jeff:

Addicks will begin to flow over its N spillway this morning, expecting peak flow of 4500cfs over the spillway tomorrow

Another first.

[srainhoutx]

I have just changed this Topic to a Global setting. I also edited the Title to include the Recovery Phase that we ALL will be facing in the weeks and months ahead. We will leave this Topic here as a Historical Documentation of Harvey before, during and after this event. Personally, thanks to each and every one of you that contributed and did your very best to keep folks that follow our KHOU Weather Forum informed before, during and what will be the long road ahead. I am praying for our Region and all of our Neighbors across Texas and Louisiana. I have personally shared our gratitude to the awesome folks at the Weather Prediction Center, National Hurricane Center and our amazing Team of Forecasters at NWS Houston/Galveston. It has truly been an amazing TEAM effort and will continue to be well into the future. Please say a prayer for me as well. You all are Awesome!

[unome]

https://twitter.com/JeffLindner1/status ... 3536604161
Addicks pool is now at 108.01 ft or at the top of the N spillway #houwx #hounews

https://twitter.com/JeffLindner1/status ... 0010868736
The Barker Gage was flooded last night...USGS will attempt to establish a temp Gage today


just a heads-up - I searched for a periscope link for the 8 am briefing today & clicked a link that tried a malicious attack, blocked by our internet security - there are ppl who try to take advantage of a disaster, so be aware & use only known, secure sources.


http://www.khou.com/news/live_stream/kh ... o/94483732
http://abc13.com/live/
https://www.click2houston.com/live/watc ... prc-2-news
http://www.fox26houston.com/live

[srainhoutx]

08292017 mcd0759.gif

MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0759
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
910 AM EDT TUE AUG 29 2017

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST TX...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN LA

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY

VALID 291310Z - 291910Z

SUMMARY...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO EXACERBATE HISTORIC
LEVELS OF FLOODING OVER SOUTHEAST TX. STRONG BANDS OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE FOCUSING OVER AREAS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
LA WITH SEPARATE FOCUSED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS.

DISCUSSION...T.S. HARVEY AS OF 12Z IS CENTERED 90 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PORT OCONNOR TX AND IS MOVING VERY SLOWLY OFF TO
THE EAST-NORTHEAST. THE LATEST NON-OPERATIONAL GOES-16 WV/IR DATA
SHOWS A RATHER NON-TROPICAL LOOKING CLOUD PATTERN AS A SIGNIFICANT
DRY SLOT CONTINUES TO ADVANCE OVER THE CENTER OF HARVEY WHILE
WRAPPING NORTHEAST INTO PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL LA.
SIMILARILY...THE NON-OPERATIONAL GOES-16 RGB AIRMASS IMAGERY HAS
BEEN CONFIRMING THIS DRY SLOT AS WELL.

COLD CONVECTIVE TOPS THOUGH NORTH OF THE CENTER WHICH ARE EMBEDDED
WITHIN A WELL-DEFINED MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE ARE STILL
IMPACTING AREAS OF SOUTHEAST TX...AND ESPECIALLY
CHAMBERS...LIBERTY AND HARDIN COUNTIES...AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS
PERSISTENT AREAS OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IMPACTING THESE AREAS.

RAINFALL TOTALS OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS ACROSS SOME OF THESE AREAS
HAVE BEEN ON THE ORDER OF 6 TO 10+ INCHES...ESPECIALLY OVER
CHAMBERS COUNTY...AND THIS HAS BEEN RESULTING IN EXTREME FLOODING
CONDITIONS.

HARVEY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY THROUGH MIDDAY WITH A
GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHEAST EXPECTED. THIS WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN
HEAVY RAINFALL OVER SOUTHEAST TX...WITH SOME GRADUAL EASTWARD
SHIFTING OF THE HEAVIER RAINS. MEANWHILE...FARTHER EAST ACROSS
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN LA...THERE WILL LIKELY BE MULTIPLE BANDS OF
CONVECTION DEVELOPING AND ADVANCING NORTH FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO
AS VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR AROUND THE EAST SIDE OF HARVEY
LIFTS NORTH AND OVER A RATHER WELL-DEFINED STATIONARY FRONT FROM
THE UPPER TX COAST EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. THIS IS
RESULTING IN STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND HEAVIER RAINS NEAR THE
FRONT...AND ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST LA.

BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR AND HRRRX GUIDANCE...EXPECT AN ADDITIONAL
3 TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN OVER SOUTHEAST TX....GENERALLY EAST AND
NORTHEAST OF THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA. IN ANY EVENT...THESE
ADDITIONAL RAINS WILL EXACERBATE THE EXTREME FLOODING CONCERNS
HERE.

MEANWHILE...VERY HEAVY RAINS OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST
LA WILL BE EXPECTED TOO...INCLUDING THE NEW ORLEANS METROPOLITAN
AREA...WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON OF UP TO AS
MUCH AS 4 TO 6 INCHES. SOME VERY COLD CONVECTIVE TOPS ARE
CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE NEW ORLEANS AREA AND THESE RAINS WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING.

ORRISON

ATTN...WFO...HGX...JAN...LCH...LIX...SHV...

[Texaspirate11]

When our NWS says this was "mind blowing" it makes you take pause.

KUDOS to NWS and KHOU and everyone who has gotten us thru this traumatized city
Days and months to go but we will get through it...somehow.

[srainhoutx]

Morning Visible Image of Harvey...1327Z Tuesday 08/29/2017

[texoz]

I have just changed this Topic to a Global setting. I also edited the Title to include the Recovery Phase that we ALL will be facing in the weeks and months ahead. We will leave this Topic here as a Historical Documentation of Harvey before, during and after this event. Personally, thanks to each and every one of you that contributed and did your very best to keep folks that follow our KHOU Weather Forum informed before, during and what will be the long road ahead. I am praying for our Region and all of our Neighbors across Texas and Louisiana. I have personally shared our gratitude to the awesome folks at the Weather Prediction Center, National Hurricane Center and our amazing Team of Forecasters at NWS Houston/Galveston. It has truly been an amazing TEAM effort and will continue to be well into the future. Please say a prayer for me as well. You all are Awesome!

Again, just saying a simple "thanks" doesn't feel sufficient, but THANKS!!! I hope the weather & emergency agencies always have the support they need.

[singlemom]

Huge hat tip to *EVERYONE* for the outstanding work done here. I've been amazed. You guys let me know about Ike 2 weeks before it hit, and I've been learning from you guys ever since. So, from all us lurkers here a huge, heartfelt *Thanks!* I do have one question though: I'm hearing of another system in the Western Gulf. The GEFS Ensemble is showing a Middle to Upper Texas Gulf landfall...next week? Is that just an outlier model?

[Katdaddy]

Lets get Harvey outta here. Setting at 52.88" this morning. Getting gusting winds but did flood last night. Kudos to everyone helping everyone. This is a once in a lifetime event.

[srainhoutx]

Huge hat tip to *EVERYONE* for the outstanding work done here. I've been amazed. You guys let me know about Ike 2 weeks before it hit, and I've been learning from you guys ever since. So, from all us lurkers here a huge, heartfelt *Thanks!* I do have one question though: I'm hearing of another system in the Western Gulf. The GEFS Ensemble is showing a Middle to Upper Texas Gulf landfall...next week? Is that just an outlier model?

It appears to be an wave of lower pressure with its origin from moisture and a bit of mid level spin associated with an area of disturbed weather along the Western Coast of Mexico in the EPAC that attempts to organize along the Mexico Gulf Coast near Tampico along the tail end of the trough left behind from Harvey. Let's just keep an eye on things today and tomorrow. The image is from the 06Z GFS 850mb level or about 5000 ft above the surface. The ECMWF has the feature as well, although weaker as of the 00Z run.

[Texaspirate11]

Maybe the dry air will suck it up.
As the NWS said "We hope its an aberration."