JANUARY 2018 - Seasonal WX Week/Pacific Front Saturday

[stormlover]

Cmc shows snow in se tx Tuesday lol

[DoctorMu]

Cmc shows snow in se tx Tuesday lol

haha Why not.

[stormlover]

Is that a dusting ?

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Is that a dusting ?

Pretty much... maybe a 1/2 inch

[christinac2016]

It's bone dry here in The Woodlands. But it's getting cold. Brrr. I'm ready to get under the multitude of covers. Happy New Year everyone!

[davidiowx]

Just looking at the goes16 WV upper, mid and lower levels, it appears to be some moisture there and increasing as it moves from west to east across Texas. Any thoughts on that?

[Katdaddy]

A Happy New Year to everyone and onward to 2018.

[unome]

still hanging on to 33 here

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/zoa/temperature ... sa&limit=1

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/zoa/mwmap2.php? ... =0&limit=1

[unome]

not any more http://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KDWH.html

still hanging on to 33 here

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/zoa/temperature ... sa&limit=1

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/zoa/mwmap2.php? ... =0&limit=1

[unome]

not much warming forecast today

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
517 AM CST Mon Jan 1 2018

.AVIATION...
Mostly MVFR ceilings to start the period should rapidly improve to VFR over the next few hours. Breezy N to NE winds are expected again today but should gradually diminish later this evening and tonight. After this morning, VFR conditions are expected through the period with some cirrus overhead. 11

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CST Mon Jan 1 2018/

DISCUSSION...
A 1050 mb area of high pressure was centered over SE Nebraska and colder temperatures were filtering into SE TX. Extensive cloud cover and mixing provided by a stiff north wind has slowed the temperature fall and 3 AM temperatures were about 5 to 6 degrees warmer than forecast last night. Temps will likely fall a few moredegrees but not sure the Hard Freeze Warning will verify. Will maintain the current hazards as is through 15z but again not sure we'll meet the criteria. Local temperature tools suggest that min temps on Tuesday and Wednesday will be warmer than guidance suggests due primarily to cloud cover. For today, a 300 mb speed max approaches the area later this morning. The area around Matagorda Bay will lie in the LFQ with PW values near 0.70 inches. The jet splits over SE TX so think precip will develop over the SW zones later this morning. The Texas Tech WRF is aggressive with precip in that region while other short term models look more benign. The jet dynamics look strong enough to generate precip so will maintain the chance PoPs for that region and taper them to the north where lower levels (below 500 mb) remain dry. As for the precip type, your guess is as good as mine. Thickness values support a mix of precipitation but forecast soundings all show a warm (melting) layer between 820-680 mb and a freezing layer between 850-1000 mb. It looks like the precip will be a sleet/rain sleet mix. At this time, precip totals are expected to be light and do not think a Winter Weather Advisory would be needed, but it is something that will need to be monitored. Precip should end this evening and skies may briefly clear before cloud fill back in by morning. Again, the anticipated cloud field will mess with temperatures and have raised min temps slightly to account for the expected insulation from the cirrus. Will not reissue the Hard Freeze Warning at this time.

On Tuesday SE TX will continue to lie in a LFQ of the jet. At the surface a weak coastal trough will develop near Matagorda Bay and light precipitation will again develop. The PW values along the coast increase to 0.80 inches. The combination of the moisture, surface trough and favorable jet dynamics should yield some light rain or rain/sleet mix yet again. The cloud cover on Tuesday should keep MaxT lower than guidance and leaned toward the cooler EC numbers. Have raised PoPs slightly for coastal areas on Tuesday. Skies begin to clear Tuesday night and sunny skies and a minimal warm up should ensue on Wednesday. More cirrus is expected Wednesday night and a thick cirrus shield is expected Thursday. 850 temps warm significantly on Thursday but clouds will moderate the surface temps. The cirrus will exit the area Thursday night and Friday leaving clear skies with cool overnight lows but milder daytime highs.

Warmer and more moisture laden air arrive on Saturday/Sunday. Fcst soundings show saturation beneath the cap so would expect clouds to increase and probably start getting some very light rain or drizzle. Another front is expected to cross SE TX next Monday or Tuesday. 43

CLIMATE...
2017 has come to an end and it was one for the record books. Its already been documented that 2017 was the wettest year on record for the city of Houston with 79.69 inches of rain. It was also the warmest year on record with an average temperature 72.2 degrees just besting 2012 (72.1 degrees). Galveston and Houston Hobby also recorded their warmest years on record and College Station had it's third warmest year on record. A PNS will be issued later today with all the preliminary numbers. Here are the top 5 warmest and wettest years for the city of Houston:

Warmest Wettest

72.2 2017 79.69 2017
72.1 2012 72.86 1900
71.9 1962 72.39 1919
71.9 2011 71.19 2001
71.7 1933 70.16 1973

College Station had it's second snowiest December on record with 5.0 inches of snow on Dec 7th and a Trace on the 31st. The snowiest Dec was 5.5 inches in 1929. 43

MARINE...
Strong NE winds and high seas will continue across the waters this morning. Gusts to gale force have been occurring on platforms over the offshore waters, and a Gale Warning remains in effect for the offshore waters through noon today. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the nearshore waters and bays and will be in effect for the offshore waters from noon today through midnight tonight. These prolonged strong N to NE winds may cause low tide issues this morning, and a low water advisory may be required. Winds and seas should gradually begin to diminish later today through Tuesday. Light to occasionally moderate offshore winds will continue for most of the week, gradually becoming onshore again Friday. 11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 35 22 35 21 46 / 0 0 10 10 0
Houston (IAH) 38 23 37 23 45 / 10 0 10 10 0
Galveston (GLS) 38 30 39 29 45 / 20 10 20 30 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX... Hard Freeze Warning until 10 AM CST this morning for the following zones: Brazos... Burleson... Grimes... Houston... Liberty... Madison... Montgomery... Polk... San Jacinto... Trinity... Walker.

Wind Chill Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for the following zones: Brazos... Burleson... Grimes... Houston... Madison... Polk... San Jacinto... Trinity... Walker.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until noon CST today for the following zones: Galveston Bay.. .Matagorda Bay.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM.

Small Craft Advisory from noon today to midnight CST tonight for the following zones: Waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM... Waters from High Island to Freeport from 20 to 60 NM.

Gale Warning until noon CST today for the following zones:
Waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport from 20 to 60 NM.

Small Craft Advisory until midnight CST tonight for the following zones: Coastal waters from High Island to Freeport out 20 NM.

&&

$$

Discussion...43
Aviation/Marine...11

[Cromagnum]

Everything I'm seeing is (1) not as cold, and (2) about 20% chance of rain the next two days.

[stormlover]

Cmc still showing snow

[texoz]

What's long range for January showing? Looking back at last two years we had one strong cold snap (both times around Jan 7th & 8th), then it warmed up quite a bit later in January.

[sambucol]

Cmc still showing snow

When?

[stormlover]

Tuesday night and wed morning

[sambucol]

Yes!! Here in SE Texas I presume. Hope it happens!

[stormlover]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... s=0&ypos=0

[don]

The Canadian and the RGEM are not backing down on the snow tomorrow the 0z UKMET also is onboard , it will be interesting to see what the HRRR shows as we get into range.

[srainhoutx]

HGX is closely monitoring areas down near Matagorda Bay for some possible light snow. The snow growth layer around 10,000 ft is becoming more saturated as the hours wear on this morning and the warm nose is shrinking due to wet bulbing. They are saying that we shouldn't be surprised if a report or two come in from Matagorda, Jackson and possibly Wharton Counties later this morning into the afternoon.

Also the upper trough that the Canadian model as well as it shorter range RGEM counter part is sniffing snow for tomorrow is diving S out of Wyoming headed generally for the Southern Plains. A coastal trough may attempt to organize along the Middle Texas Coast tonight. GOES 16 now known as GOES East suggest a trough may be organizing near and just S of Brownsville. I did notice one or two of the shorter range mesoscale models also are sniffing the possibility of some wintry mischief overnight tonight into tomorrow, so we will see. No model picked up on that snow band last night which reminds us that the models can miss subtle mesoscale feature that cannot be determined in advance. Lastly, stay warm folks. It's not going to warm much if at all until sometime Wednesday into Thursday.

[stormlover]

So srain, u think we could get a surprise ?