JANUARY 2018 - Seasonal WX Week/Pacific Front Saturday

[don]

It sure does seem to be back building, i think this may end up being the biggest winter storm since the 1997 ice storm.

[jasons2k]

I was just noticing that too. The areas around San Antonio are filling-in.

[stormlover]

Wrf model shows it to also newest runs

[dac]

Sorry if this was asked earlier, what is missing in the mix for the sleet/icy mix to turn to actual snow?

[sambucol]

Wrf model shows it to also newest runs

What does this mean for us in the Baytown/Houston area? Thanks!

[stormlover]

Messsy and ugly !!!

[srainhoutx]

Man seems like this stuff is building more and more to the west srain

That shortwave near San Antonio was the "little surprise" that some of the guidance was missing yesterday. As is typically the case, these winter weather events throw a curveball or two. As confidence increased yesterday when some doubted this storm would deliver, in the end the absolute right call was made by our excellent team of forecasters at HGX. Remember there is a lot at stake beyond public safety when making these decisions. The loss of revenue for the Houston Area is likely in the millions of dollars for today alone.

[djmike]

Heavy sleet just ended in Beaumont but just looked at radar and man it does look like a LOT more is filling in. This could go till late this evening. Light snow just started in Beaumont but were in a tiny pocket but looks like within 40 mins things will get treacherous again. Temps continue to plummet. Currently at 27. Id say from this point forward roads will be very dangerous! Huge icicles now forming from roofs and trees. It will only get colder and worse from this point forward. If you are at work, now would be the time to consider heading home. Stay off the roads if you can. Stay safe everyone!

[srainhoutx]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1200 PM CST Tue Jan 16 2018


.DISCUSSION...
Numerous reports of freezing rain/sleet/snow across the area. Even
Galveston getting into the game with 3 hours of snow in the
observation. Expanded the Winter Storm Warning to the coast.
Guidance showing abundant lift spreading over the area this
afternoon with depth of cold air increasing. Precip should
transition over to mainly snow by mid afternoon. Unfortunately the
temperatures down to 25 to 29 in the Houston Metroplex-23 to 26
north. Expect that in the next couple of hours icing should
transition from elevated roadways to surface streets in the
Houston Metro.

[Belmer]

Sorry if this was asked earlier, what is missing in the mix for the sleet/icy mix to turn to actual snow?

The reason we are seeing more of a sleet mix than snow is because there is a small warm nose aloft. Meaning the cold air is very dense here at the surface, but up a few thousand feet the temperature is above 32F so the snow is melting to liquid as it falls through that warm layer, then refreezes as it falls closer to the surface.
Looks like that warm nose is from 870mb - 750mb. I expect that warm nose to gradually erode away as we head into this afternoon, allowing for a possible all snow mix before the precipitation cuts off. Leading up to this event, HRRR did very well in this winter event for us here in SETX, but recent runs have not been handling the orientation of this band of moisture very well. New band of sleet/snow starting to fill in near San Antonio south of I-10 which should make a run for Houston by around 3PM.

[LightningBolt]

Just brought in more wood from the porch and it is sleeting heavily now.

[Andrew]

Driveway is freezing over here in the garden oaks/oak forest region. Heavy ice pellets/sleet falling. Based on radar we still have several more hours. I suspect a lot of school delays/cancelations will occur for tomorrow.

[jasons2k]

Precip near San Antonio is forming into convective bands.

[Belmer]

Driveway is freezing over here in the garden oaks/oak forest region. Heavy ice pellets/sleet falling. Based on radar we still have several more hours. I suspect a lot of school delays/cancelations will occur for tomorrow.

Was talking to a school district little bit ago... tough call for them to make. Urgency is there to have school tomorrow due to how many days missed for Harvey and now today. School districts don't want to miss anymore than they have to. Most will be making decisions starting around 5PM this evening. With more precipitation falling than what was really forecasted/modeled, It would be better to stay safe and resume on Thursday, but word that some may do a half-a-day and allow temperatures to climb above freezing.

[cperk]

Temp 27.1 and still sleeting here in Richmond.

[snowman65]

Well...we were supposed to have a wintry mix starting around 9am but this point it's just rain.

[srainhoutx]

Next band of heavier precipitation approaching Western/NW Harris County. Sleet/snow mix increasing again at the house. This next band/wave should completely ice over surface roads that have slush on them now. Austin has transitioned to light snow, so expect mixing to transition to light snow this afternoon into the early evening across most of our SE Texas area.

[ronyan]

I've got sleet falling in Lake Jackson.

[Cromagnum]

Looks like we are done with this from Pearland and points south. Unless of course something pops up. Radar looks silent.

[harp]

Next band of heavier precipitation approaching Western/NW Harris County. Sleet/snow mix increasing again at the house. This next band/wave should completely ice over surface roads that have slush on them now. Austin has transitioned to light snow, so expect mixing to transition to light snow this afternoon into the early evening across most of our SE Texas area.

We are having schools closings here in SE La. I think this is going to be more than anyone expected. The precip hasn't even reached us yet.