JUNE 2018: Drying Trend & Summer Heat Returns

[srainhoutx]

Convection increased overnight in the SW Caribbean Sea as a tropical wave in the Central Caribbean heads West and the monsoonal gyre (broad area of lower pressures) gets going.

[Texaspirate11]

from https://www.drought.gov/drought/states/texas


Summary of Drought for Texas
Abnormal dryness or drought are currently affecting approximately 18,202,000 people in Texas, which is about 72% of the state's population.
Population in drought numbers are as of 06-05-2018. These numbers update Thursdays at approximately 9am EDT.

That's exactly what I have in mind. If only these systems would cooperate!

7-day qpf gets closer (not that the 7-day is wholly reliable) http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpfloop_6hr_d17.html

but the 5-day leaves a lot of our state high & dry, not good, especially with temps as high as they've been
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p120i.gif

Terrified of DROUGHT

[srainhoutx]

Monday morning briefing from Jeff:

Main focus for much of this week will be the late week/weekend forecast as a strong tropical wave moves into the W/NW Gulf of Mexico.

Not expecting much day to day variation of the forecast from a 10-20% chance of afternoon and evening thunderstorms along the sezbreeze front through Thursday.

Friday-Monday:
A tropical wave currently moving through the Caribbean Sea will interact with an eastward extension of the central American monsoon trough that has currently drifted northward over the extreme SW Caribbean Sea. Thunderstorm activity has increased in this region of the Caribbean Sea overnight, but at this time there does not appear to be any low level circulation. This feature will meander WNW and into the W Caribbean Sea and central America over the next few days and then likely emerge into the southern or central Gulf of Mexico late this week. At this time a majority of the global computer model guidance maintains this feature as a broad tropical wave axis and moves into toward the western and northwestern Gulf of Mexico over the weekend.

As the tropical wave axis moves into the western Gulf of Mexico on Saturday a large mass of deep tropical moisture will surge NW on the eastern flank of the wave toward the TX coast. Rain chances will likely begin to increase early Saturday and continue elevated through the weekend into early next week. Wind and seas will also increase as the unsettled weather and wave axis moves toward the coastline.

Residents are urged to monitor daily tropical weather outlooks from the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5 and local forecasts.

Regardless of development or not…rain chances will be increasing this weekend. Will start to have a better idea toward the middle of the week on expected amounts of rainfall over the area as forecast models resolve how this feature will unfold over the W/NW Gulf of Mexico, but a prolonged period of wet to very wet weather looks possible.

[don]

I am starting to watch for the possibility of heavy rain this weekend into early next week, as it is starting to seem like we could see heavy rain regardless of rather the system develops or not. Both The EURO and GFS show widespread heavy rainfall, just something to watch for now...

[texoz]

I am starting to watch for the possibility of heavy rain this weekend into early next week, as it is starting to seem like we could see heavy rain regardless of rather the system develops or not. Both The EURO and GFS show widespread heavy rainfall, just something to watch for now...

I'm wondering if Hurricane Bud (Pacific) is getting factored into rain chances for next week. The 5-day shows it curving northeast into Mexico mainland east of Cabo, which indicates a possible effect on Texas later next week, yes/no?

[unome]

if you read/enjoy surface analysis maps, you can loop OPC's products here: https://ocean.weather.gov/Loops

it gives you a clear idea of the recent past surface analysis, easy to see the progression when it loops & can be slowed, sped up, zoomed, etc...

for example, "Mexico" view, 5 day loop: https://ocean.weather.gov/Loops/index.p ... s=5&loop=1

their Atlantic Briefing Package has all their graphical products, with the times they update below the graphic: https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/A_brief.shtml

of course for tropical, go to NHC: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/

[tireman4]

@RyanMaue
Good news from GFS model update just now:
1. The model hurricane in the Gulf has been ditched.
2. Instead, huge tropical moisture surge from Caribbean and Gulf to impact Texas next weekend.
3. Welcome rainfall.

[srainhoutx]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Jun 11 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A broad area of showers and thunderstorms has persisted over the
southwestern Caribbean Sea for the past several hours. This activity
is associated with a tropical wave over northwestern Venezuela and
a surface trough located just east of Nicaragua interacting with a
large upper-level trough. Little development of this area of
disturbed weather is expected over the next few days due to
interaction with Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula. However,
environmental conditions could become somewhat more conducive for
some limited development when the system moves into the southwestern
Gulf of Mexico by the end of the week. Regardless of development,
this disturbance will produce locally heavy rainfall across portions
of Nicaragua, Honduras, Belize, Guatemala, and the Yucatan Peninsula
through Thursday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Stewart

[stormlover]

Srain, Euro is blah that would be less rain for us

[srainhoutx]

Srain, Euro is blah that would be less rain for us

One could argue that organized or not, this appears to be a big rain maker for Texas and possibly portions of Louisiana. I've checked the total precipitation amounts from the various model schemes throughout this past weekend and even the ECMWF suggests rainfall amounts of 6 to 10 inches with isolated higher amounts possible. I know wxman57 made mention on S2k this morning that he saw some similarities to Allison 2001, but was not forecasting 30 inches of rainfall like Allison produced. Remember it does not take a big bad Hurricane to bring a lot of heavy tropical rainfall. We will continue to monitor very closely.

[stormlover]

Thanks srain

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Would take too much rain over 2011 any day, week, month or quarter of the year.

[srainhoutx]

Forecaster Roth who just received a well deserved promotion at the WPC has just Updated the Extended Range Surface Charts and QPF Totals for later this week into the weekend. Many will remember David was the main forecaster for Harvey at the WPC last August as well as the Tax Day Flood and also back for Allison in 2001. The first thing you'll notice is a broad area of low pressure has been added to the tropical wave axis/trough and that QPF (Quantitative Precipitation Forecast) Totals are beginning to increase. That suggest that confidence is increasing that heavy rainfall is possible extending into early next work week at the minimum. We will increase our monitoring as the week progresses in case some form of Tropical Mischief flares up as it nears the Texas Coast late this coming weekend.

Surface Charts:

QPF:

[jasons2k]

On GOES16, looks like a shortwave is rotating down from the DFW area...

[unome]

a few thoughts from around the web

• Mark Sudduth, HurricaneTrack https://youtu.be/w5caAX20914
  
  Dr Jeff Masters / Bob Henson, Weather Underground https://www.wunderground.com/cat6
  
  Matt Lanza / Eric Berger, Space City Weather https://spacecityweather.com/

***I meant to add: as always, pay attention to the official tropical/qpf/severe forecasting sources

[mcheer23]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Mon Jun 11 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the
western Caribbean Sea is associated with a trough of low pressure.
This area of disturbed weather is expected to move westward over
Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula during the next couple of
days, and little, if any, development is expected during that time.
Environmental conditions could become slightly conducive for some
development when the system moves into the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico by the end of the week. Regardless of development, this
disturbance will likely produce locally heavy rainfall across
portions of Nicaragua, Honduras, Belize, Guatemala, and the Yucatan
Peninsula through Thursday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[unome]

I have to say that regardless of what this particular tropical disturbance does, or does not do, the real-time inundation mapping addition to the website: https://www.harriscountyfws.org/ is a gigantic improvement

thank you to everyone who helped make that happen

https://www.hcfcd.org/press-room/curren ... um=twitter

https://www.harriscountyfws.org/About

they even have a "how to" video to help you learn how to use it https://youtu.be/eb4AFIspQSQ

[Andrew]

GFS continues to show a disorganized mess for the most part but a pretty steady fetch of moisture from the Western Caribbean. Good news is we will have multiple days of rain but now we will need to keep an eye on the heavy rain potential. In particular, Sunday and Monday look like the best potential for locally heavy rainfall as vort max rotates through.

[wxman57]

Significant tropical development still looks unlikely. Models are in good agreement on widespread 2-4" rainfall totals across much of the the Texas coastal counties through next Tuesday morning. Can't rule out the disturbance developing a circulation before moving ashore, but this doesn't look like a wind event for Texas. I wouldn't be surprised if some training of thunderstorms occurs somewhere along the Texas coast, leading to 8-10 inches of rain in isolated areas.

[unome]

QPF 6-hourly, 7-day loop http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpfloop_6hr_d17.html
days 1-3 http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/d13_fill.gif
days 4-5 http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif (check out desert SW)
days 6-7 http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif

Pressures & Fronts days 1-7 loop http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/day0-7loop.html
(wish they all showed weather type)

AMZ001-122030-
Synopsis for Caribbean Sea and Tropical N Atlantic from 07N to
19N between 55W and 64W
418 AM EDT Tue Jun 12 2018

.SYNOPSIS... A tropical wave will move west across the western Caribbean today and on Wed with a surface low developing along the wave axis on Wed. A second tropical wave will enter the east Caribbean today, and pass through the central Caribbean on Wed and Thu. A third tropical wave will pass west through the tropical waters east of windwards on Wed, and enter the east Caribbean on Thu. Strong trades across the south-central and southwest Caribbean will spread north across the central Caribbean on Wed and further west late in the week. Locally strong trades will continue across the tropical waters east of the Windwards through early Wed.


GMZ001-122030-
Synopsis for the Gulf of Mexico
418 AM EDT Tue Jun 12 2018

.SYNOPSIS... A surface trough will develop along the Yucatan Peninsula late each afternoon, and drift westward across the southwest Gulf during the overnight hours with the trough dissipating along 96W during the late mornings. The pressure gradient will tighten during the middle of the week in association with a tropical wave moving through the Yucatan Channel on Wed. A surface low will develop along the wave axis on Wed night, and move into the Bay of Campeche on Thu, then continue across the southwest gulf waters late in the week.

NHC's 5-day should be out soon https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5