JUNE 2018: Drying Trend & Summer Heat Returns

[srainhoutx]

Tuesday morning briefing from Jeff:

Tropical wave over the SW Caribbean Sea will move into the W Gulf of Mexico late this week

Rain chances will increase Friday into the weekend and continue into early next week.

Disorganized tropical wave over the SW Caribbean Sea has shown no indications of organization overnight as this feature slowly moves toward the W and WNW. Interactions with the land areas of central America should prevent any development in the near term. Conditions may become slightly more favorable as the feature moves into the W Gulf of Mexico late this week into the weekend, but overall development chances of this system remains low.

With that said, a large plume of deep tropical moisture will begin to lift into the Gulf of Mexico on Thursday start to arrive on the TX coast Friday. Initial surge looks aimed at the mid and upper TX coast Saturday and Sunday, but long fetch of moisture remains in place over SE TX well into next week. Rain chances will increase dramatically on Friday into Saturday and remain high into early next week. The moisture source will be from deep in the SW Caribbean Sea as well as some potential high level moisture arriving from eastern Pacific Hurricane Bud. Air mass will likely become nearly saturated by Saturday and showers and thunderstorms will be numerous and require little heating. In fact these types of air masses like to produce their greatest rainfalls in the early morning hours.

Rainfall Amounts:
Confidence is high enough to begin start talking rainfall amounts for this event. Overall storm totals from Saturday-Tuesday will likely average 1-3 inches with isolated much higher amounts. Given the expected tropical air mass that will be in place excessive short duration rainfall totals of 2-3 inches will be possible. There rainfall totals may need to be raised as confidence continues to increase.

Grounds over the area are currently dry with moderate to severe drought conditions in place especially along the coast. Initial rainfall will be absorbed by the parched grounds, but the multi day nature of the potential wet weather will gradually increase run-off rates each day as rainfall accumulations increase and grounds become increasingly saturated.

Winds/Seas:
Conditions across the near/off shore waters will be deteriorating starting late Friday and through the weekend. Sustained ESE/SE winds of 20-30kts will be possible with seas building Saturday into the 4-6 foot range and 6-8 foot by Saturday evening. Long period swells from the SE Gulf will arrive on the coast late Saturday and this may result in some minor wave and water run-up on the Gulf facing beaches. Numerous showers and thunderstorms and squalls across the coastal waters through the weekend into early next week with wind gusts to 50kts in the stronger squalls.

Forecast changes are likely in the coming days with respect to rainfall totals and where maximum rainfall amounts may eventually transpire.

WPC Forecasted Rainfall Amounts (7 days):

[tireman4]

@TropicalTidbits
[#tweetForEveryone] A tropical disturbance will make its way into the western Gulf of Mexico late this week and weekend. Development is not particularly likely, but wet and stormy weather will likely impact the NW gulf coast as deep tropical moisture flows northward.

[tireman4]

Satellite Imagery of Tropics...

[Rip76]

We have 91L.

[tireman4]

As of 12:00 UTC Jun 12, 2018:

Location: 13.8°N 80.8°W
Maximum Winds: 25 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1012 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1015 mb
Radius of Circulation: 140 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 90 NM

[unome]

http://hurricanecity.com/models/models. ... stinvest=1

Code: Select all

AL, 91, 2018061112,   , BEST,   0, 121N,  740W,  20, 1013, DB,  34, NEQ,    0,    0,    0,    0,    0,    0,   0,   0,   0,    ,   0,    ,   0,   0, GENESIS004,  ,  0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, genesis-num, 004,
AL, 91, 2018061118,   , BEST,   0, 126N,  765W,  20, 1013, DB,  34, NEQ,    0,    0,    0,    0,    0,    0,   0,   0,   0,    ,   0,    ,   0,   0, GENESIS004,  ,  0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, genesis-num, 004,
AL, 91, 2018061200,   , BEST,   0, 131N,  785W,  20, 1013, DB,  34, NEQ,    0,    0,    0,    0,    0,    0,   0,   0,   0,    ,   0,    ,   0,   0, GENESIS004,  ,  0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, genesis-num, 004,
AL, 91, 2018061206,   , BEST,   0, 135N,  798W,  25, 1013, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0,    0,    0,   0,   0,   0,    ,   0,    ,   0,   0, GENESIS004,  ,  0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, genesis-num, 004,
AL, 91, 2018061212,   , BEST,   0, 138N,  808W,  25, 1012, DB,  34, NEQ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1015,  140,  90,   0,   0,   L,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST, S,  0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, genesis-num, 004, SPAWNINVEST, al742018 to al912018,

[/size]

[tireman4]

Warmest May 1st through June 11th on record...

[tireman4]

This is a PSA for the upcoming days. As the event (whatever that "is") becomes clearer, there will be many questions asked of the amateur and pro mets. They will try to answer your questions as best they can, but realize time will make this clearer, especially late week. Be patient with them, especially the pro mets ( Srain, Wxman 57, Andrew, Belmer, David, Jeff, Mcheer and Brooks)...also, just a heads up ( and no I am not inferring anything, but it is always good to remind ourselves of this...

[unome]

kind of nice that there is a working bouy cam in the BOC &a couple off the Gulf coast this year, the one off the Yucatan was working last year

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/buoycams.shtml

[unome]

This is a PSA for the upcoming days. As the event (whatever that "is") becomes clearer, there will be many questions asked of the amateur and pro mets. They will try to answer your questions as best they can, but realize time will make this clearer, especially late week. Be patient with them, especially the pro mets ( Srain, Wxman 57, Andrew, Belmer, David, Jeff, Mcheer and Brooks)...also, just a heads up ( and no I am not inferring anything, but it is always good to remind ourselves of this...

there is a spot on 290 inbound, where it dips down after the beltway that always accumulates water when it rains hard - I hope they clean out the drainage holes or fix the reason for it

[Rip76]

Thoughts on the possibility of less rain out of this system?

[tireman4]

Stacey Stewart has spoken. About the rain, that is a pro met question...


Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Tue Jun 12 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A large area of showers and thunderstorms located over the western
Caribbean Sea just to the east of Nicaragua and northeastern
Honduras is associated with a sharp surface trough. This area of
disturbed weather is forecast to move westward to northwestward over
Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula during the next couple of
days, and little development is expected during that time due to
strong upper-level winds. However, environmental conditions could
become slightly more conducive for some development when the system
moves into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico by the end of the week.
Regardless of development, this disturbance will likely produce
locally heavy rainfall across portions of Nicaragua, Honduras,
Belize, Guatemala, and the Yucatan Peninsula through Thursday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Stewart

[don]

12z European model

[wxman57]

Looks like widespread 2-5 inches across our area Sun-Tue. Not expecting anything remotely close to Harvey. Perhaps some brief street flooding at times, but that's about it. No hurricane threat.

[stormlover]

I think we could get little more, Thursday morning we will know more..u never know with these systems

[jasons2k]

Widespread 2-5” over 3-4 days would be a Godsend. Anything more will cause trouble. Anything less will be a huge letdown and disappointment.

Thin needle to thread, Invest 91L, you...

[mcheer23]

I'm also thinking a widespread 3-5 with isolated totals a little north of that.
Still don't let your guard down! Stay weather aware!


WPC has moved the bulls-eye for the heaviest rain into Beaumont area and western Louisiana.
There is still a lot of uncertainty.

[srainhoutx]

Thoughts on the possibility of less rain out of this system?

I don't see any significant changes at this time. The GFS was drier and the ECMWF/CMC solutions where somewhat more aggressive with our rainfall chances. The WPC didn't make any significant changes to the 7 Day QPF other than extending heavy rainfall further East along the Louisiana Gulf Coast. Typically the various guidance solutions struggle with expected rainfall solutions beyond 24 hours out with these sloppy systems that lack any real organization.

[jasons2k]

In other news, it's actually raining here at the office in The Woodlands. Enough to wet the pavement at least. Looks like the house barely got any at all though.

[unome]

In other news, it's actually raining here at the office in The Woodlands. Enough to wet the pavement at least. Looks like the house barely got any at all though.

jealous, enjoy - feels like it's baking here https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/zoa/mwmap2.php?map=houston