AUGUST 2018 - Scatterd Showers/Storms To End August

[DoctorMu]

The Aggiedome is still holding strong. Houston, San Antonio, Austin, DFW have always seen rain, it’s getting old living in the Krispy Kreme donut hole.

[jasons2k]

0.07”

I suppose that’s better than 0.00” but it didn’t even get the ground wet under the trees.

[Texaspirate11]

Watered the garden yesterday...an hour later dark clouds rolled in and it finally rained
I guess thats the secret to bringing rain....finally.

[DoctorMu]

The seabreeze is juicing up and teasing us. Still in the gaps, but hoping we roll the dice for some wins today.

[Katdaddy]

Numerous tropical showers developing across SE TX and the Upper TX Coast late this morning. Just received one of the tropical showers here at the house.

[jasons2k]

The radar looks good. Maybe today will be the day.

[unome]

here it comes again - may all you dry slotted peeps get some precip

[DoctorMu]

here it comes again - may all you dry slotted peeps get some precip

Good well-wishes indeed!

We had two brief, but intense showers for a total of 0.69 inches IMBY. Hope Jason has seen some action as well as our friends in Grimes Co.

[BlueJay]

Heavy rain here. I'm trying to send it to folks who need it more than us!

[unome]

latest storm-total radar estimated precip

[jasons2k]

Got .80" - finally!! So happy to get some rain!

[srainhoutx]

Storms have missed my house the last couple of days, but in spite of a forecast of some light Saharan Dust moving in tomorrow, the Western Gulf still looks unsettled as well as across most of Texas. I think we can squeeze one more day of scattered showers/storms before a slight drying trend arrives early this coming week transitioning to a typical mid August pattern offering heat of the day rain activity along the sea/baybreeze moving inland in the afternoon for late week into next weekend and beyond.

[DoctorMu]

0.89 inches for the day of welcome rain after a third brief shower.

[unome]

HGX's Twitter post & the replies show the hit & miss pattern of rain
https://twitter.com/NWSHouston/status/1 ... 7036581888

NWS Enhanced Data Display has an experimental precip layer(s) where you can still get many variations of hourly precip analysis - this is set to the last hour, but can be changed to whatever data set you wish
https://tinyurl.com/NWS-EDD-Precip-Analysis

EDD Mobile version (have not tried it myself) https://preview.weather.gov/edd/resourc ... x.html#%2F

[srainhoutx]

I spent every summer near this location camping from the mid 60's to the early 70's. What an amazing site to see. Most of the sharp cliffs along the "normal" flow of the Nueces River are 200 to 300 feet!

NWS Austin/San Antonio‏Verified account @NWSSanAntonio · 1h1 hour ago
Here's a comparison of what the Nueces River at the 19 Mile Bridge on Highway 55 in Uvalde County looks like normally vs. what it looks like right now after up to 8 inches of rain has fallen in the area. Photo courtesy of Lonnie Davenport.

[unome]

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0640
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1133 AM EDT Sun Aug 12 2018

Areas affected...S outh-Central and Central Texas including Hill Country

Concerning... Heavy rainfall... Flash flooding likely

Valid 121532Z - 122115Z

Summary... Areas of moderate to heavy rain with embedded thunderstorms are likely to continue through the day in parts of south-central and central Texas. Many parts of the region have received heavy rainfall in recent days, so additional rain could cause flooding. Localized heavier rainfall associated with thunderstorms could reach rates of 2-3 in/hr with the potential for more focused areas of flash flooding.

Discussion... The ingredients are in place for rain and thunderstorms to persist in a somewhat tropical environment into the afternoon hours. RAP analysis placed a 50 knot southwesterly jet streak over northwest Texas, and the right entrance region of that jet streak is right over south-central and central Texas. The RAP forecast maintains a decent upper level divergence signal through the day in the region. At the same time, the RAP also analyzed a weak low-level cyclone near the Texas Big Bend, with broad low-level (925-850mb) southerly inflow from the Gulf of Mexico. The streamlines generally spread out as they approached a deformation zone stretching from just north of Del Rio up toward the DFW metro area. Therefore, the nose of the warm, moist low-level inflow was favorably aligned with upper level divergence, and in concert these features should be sufficient to sustain rain and embedded thunderstorms through the day. The precipitable water values are near or just over 2 inches per satellite analysis and observations. It is worth noting the 2.16 inch PW value on the 12Z DRT sounding, with a tall, narrow CAPE profile and melting layer around 15kft -- a favorable profile for efficient heavy rain production.

Cloud cover was more dense in an area of steadier rain in the northern half of the outlined area, over Texas Hill Country. This area would be most likely to see weaker instability and a persistence of steadier rain with embedded heavier bands through the afternoon as it should remain relatively near the nose of the low-level inflow. Further south, from Del Rio and Eagle Pass up toward San Antonio, breaks in the cloud cover are more likely, and thus greater instability may build in the afternoon hours. This area would be most likely to see stronger convection, with higher rain rates and an increased potential for focused flash flooding events. 850-300mb mean winds in the same area are very weak (5-10 knots), with Corfidi vector magnitudes less than 5 knots. This favors meandering convective clusters with the potential for back-building and stalling. KDFX radar has already shown that this morning, with nearly stationary storms able to produce 2-3 in/hr rain rates. This would be likely to produce flash flooding, and especially around the five-county area of Val Verde, Edwards, Real, Kinney and Uvalde, which have already seen numerous locations receive 2-3 inches of rain in recent days. Therefore, significant flash flooding is possible if a thunderstorm sits in such an area, and significant flooding stranding people in trees and on vehicles was recently reported from western Uvalde County near the Nueces River.

A Moderate Risk of Excessive Rainfall remains in effect on the Day 1 ERO for much of this region, and people in the area should be prepared to respond quickly to any flooding that develops.

Lamers

ATTN... WFO... EWX... FWD... MAF... SJT...

ATTN... RFC... WGRFC...

[srainhoutx]

Monitoring EWXChat, many first responders from State, County and Local agencies responding to the request of Uvalde OEM for rescue boats and other emergency services. Reports of people stranded in trees and rooftops around Chalk Bluff Campsite on the Nueces River 12 S of Montel in Uvalde County. They are getting a brief break in the weather, but additional storms are developing to the West and SW of Uvalde County.

[unome]

looks like some pretty good rain heading into the Waller/NW Harris area that was dumped on Friday

[texoz]

I spent every summer near this location camping from the mid 60's to the early 70's. What an amazing site to see. Most of the sharp cliffs along the "normal" flow of the Nueces River are 200 to 300 feet!

NWS Austin/San Antonio‏Verified account @NWSSanAntonio · 1h1 hour ago
Here's a comparison of what the Nueces River at the 19 Mile Bridge on Highway 55 in Uvalde County looks like normally vs. what it looks like right now after up to 8 inches of rain has fallen in the area. Photo courtesy of Lonnie Davenport.

08122018 Nueces River HWY 55 Before DkZzdQYUYAAE94j.jpg

08122018 Nueces River After DkZ0QhuU8AEYFoD.jpg

Wow. I would be a little nervous on that bridge with that amount of water flowing.

[DoctorMu]

looks like some pretty good rain heading into the Waller/NW Harris area that was dumped on Friday

It's feast or famine in the Brazos Valley for rainfall.

Today, we could feast.