AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
321 AM CDT MON JUN 28 2010
.DISCUSSION...
JUST A HEADS UP THAT FCST PRODUCTS WILL LIKELY RUN ABOUT AN HOUR
LATE THIS MORNING. NEED TO UPDATE QUITE A BIT. WILL TRY TO GET
DISCUSSION & PRELIMS OUT BY 430 AM BUT ZONE AND COASTAL FCST WILL BE
LATER THAN USUAL. 47
HGX busy with the forecast this morning... Likely gathering info from the NHC on the latest track
Hurricane Alex. 40 Miles NNE of La Pesca. 100 MPH/948MB
-
vci_guy2003
- Posts: 203
- Joined: Mon Jun 28, 2010 4:04 am
- Contact:
DEEP CONVECTION WITH CLOUD TOPS OF -80C TO -84C HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR
AND AROUND THE CENTER OF ALEX DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. AN AIR
FORCE RESERVE UNIT AIRCRAFT AROUND 05Z FOUND THE CENTRAL PRESSURE
TO STILL BE AROUND 991 MB...BUT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS HAD INCREASED TO
51 KT...EQUAL TO ABOUT 38 AT THE SURFACE. THE AIRCRAFT ALSO
MEASURED AN SFMR SURFACE WIND OF 41 KT IN THE NORTHERN QUADRANT ON
ITS OUTBOUND LEG. BASED ON THIS INFORMATION AND THE MARKED INCREASE
IN CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION SINCE THE RECON FIX...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS SET AT 45 KT.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 315/05 BASED ON RECON FIX DATA.
COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT...THE MODELS ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT ON
THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYNOPTIC-SCALE FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE U.S.
AND THE GULF OF MEXICO. IN FACT...THE 500 MB HEIGHT AND WIND FIELDS
ARE NEARLY IDENTICAL WITH THE STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT OF THE
DEVELOPING TROUGH-RIDGE PATTERN THROUGH 72 HOURS. DESPITE THESE
STRIKING SIMILARITIES...HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE
DIVERGENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACKS...ESPECIALLY AFTER 48 HOURS. FOR
THE NEXT 2 DAYS OR SO...THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON A
SLOW NORTHWESTWARD MOTION. AFTER THAT...THE GFS...GFS-PARALLEL...
CMC...HWRF...AND GFDL MODEL KEEP ALEX ON A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AND
BRING THE CYCLONE INLAND ALONG THE LOWER OR CENTRAL TEXAS COAST. IN
CONTRAST...THE ECMWF...UKMET...AND NOGAPS MODELS TAKE ALEX WESTWARD
INTO THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF MEXICO...WITH THE ECMWF HAVING THE
MOST SOUTHERN TRACK OF THOSE MODELS. HOWEVER...THE ENTIRE NHC MODEL
SUITE HAS SHIFTED NORTH AGAIN...ALONG WITH THE ECMWF MODEL. THE
ONLY DIFFERENCE I CAN SEE BETWEEN THE MODELS IS THAT THE THE
ECMWF...UKMET...AND ESPECIALLY NOGAPS DEPICT ALEX AS A SMALLER AND
WEAKER CYCLONE THAN THE OTHER MODELS ARE FORECASTING. GIVEN THAT
ALEX IS EXPECTED TO BE A RELATIVELY LARGE HURRICANE BY 72 HOURS...
GREATER WEIGHT WAS PLACED ON THE OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS... WHICH HAS
RESULTED IN A NORTHWARD SHIFT OF THE FORECAST TRACK...BUT STILL
REMAINS SOUTH OF THE NHC CONSENSUS MODEL..TVCN.
THE NORMALLY ROBUST GFDL AND HWRF MODELS ARE STILL ONLY FORECASTING
MODEST INTENSIFICATION OF ALEX...WHICH REMAINS SOMEWHAT PERPLEXING
GIVEN THE VERY LOW VERTICAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND IMPRESSIVE
OUTFLOW ENVIRONMENT IN WHICH ALEX IS CURRENTLY IN AND IS FORECAST
TO REMAIN EMBEDDED IN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE CURRENT
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS MORE TYPICAL OF SYSTEM NEARING HURRICANE
STRENGTH. GIVEN THAT THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUITE LOW AND
THE ATMOSPHERE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN VERY MOIST IN THE MID-LEVELS
...I SEE NO REASON WHY ALEX SHOULD NOT CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN...AND
POSSIBLY EVEN BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL. THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE VERY
RELIABLE LGEM MODEL...WHICH BRINGS ALEX UP TO 90 KT BY 72 HOURS.
AND AROUND THE CENTER OF ALEX DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. AN AIR
FORCE RESERVE UNIT AIRCRAFT AROUND 05Z FOUND THE CENTRAL PRESSURE
TO STILL BE AROUND 991 MB...BUT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS HAD INCREASED TO
51 KT...EQUAL TO ABOUT 38 AT THE SURFACE. THE AIRCRAFT ALSO
MEASURED AN SFMR SURFACE WIND OF 41 KT IN THE NORTHERN QUADRANT ON
ITS OUTBOUND LEG. BASED ON THIS INFORMATION AND THE MARKED INCREASE
IN CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION SINCE THE RECON FIX...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS SET AT 45 KT.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 315/05 BASED ON RECON FIX DATA.
COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT...THE MODELS ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT ON
THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYNOPTIC-SCALE FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE U.S.
AND THE GULF OF MEXICO. IN FACT...THE 500 MB HEIGHT AND WIND FIELDS
ARE NEARLY IDENTICAL WITH THE STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT OF THE
DEVELOPING TROUGH-RIDGE PATTERN THROUGH 72 HOURS. DESPITE THESE
STRIKING SIMILARITIES...HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE
DIVERGENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACKS...ESPECIALLY AFTER 48 HOURS. FOR
THE NEXT 2 DAYS OR SO...THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON A
SLOW NORTHWESTWARD MOTION. AFTER THAT...THE GFS...GFS-PARALLEL...
CMC...HWRF...AND GFDL MODEL KEEP ALEX ON A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AND
BRING THE CYCLONE INLAND ALONG THE LOWER OR CENTRAL TEXAS COAST. IN
CONTRAST...THE ECMWF...UKMET...AND NOGAPS MODELS TAKE ALEX WESTWARD
INTO THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF MEXICO...WITH THE ECMWF HAVING THE
MOST SOUTHERN TRACK OF THOSE MODELS. HOWEVER...THE ENTIRE NHC MODEL
SUITE HAS SHIFTED NORTH AGAIN...ALONG WITH THE ECMWF MODEL. THE
ONLY DIFFERENCE I CAN SEE BETWEEN THE MODELS IS THAT THE THE
ECMWF...UKMET...AND ESPECIALLY NOGAPS DEPICT ALEX AS A SMALLER AND
WEAKER CYCLONE THAN THE OTHER MODELS ARE FORECASTING. GIVEN THAT
ALEX IS EXPECTED TO BE A RELATIVELY LARGE HURRICANE BY 72 HOURS...
GREATER WEIGHT WAS PLACED ON THE OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS... WHICH HAS
RESULTED IN A NORTHWARD SHIFT OF THE FORECAST TRACK...BUT STILL
REMAINS SOUTH OF THE NHC CONSENSUS MODEL..TVCN.
THE NORMALLY ROBUST GFDL AND HWRF MODELS ARE STILL ONLY FORECASTING
MODEST INTENSIFICATION OF ALEX...WHICH REMAINS SOMEWHAT PERPLEXING
GIVEN THE VERY LOW VERTICAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND IMPRESSIVE
OUTFLOW ENVIRONMENT IN WHICH ALEX IS CURRENTLY IN AND IS FORECAST
TO REMAIN EMBEDDED IN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE CURRENT
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS MORE TYPICAL OF SYSTEM NEARING HURRICANE
STRENGTH. GIVEN THAT THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUITE LOW AND
THE ATMOSPHERE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN VERY MOIST IN THE MID-LEVELS
...I SEE NO REASON WHY ALEX SHOULD NOT CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN...AND
POSSIBLY EVEN BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL. THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE VERY
RELIABLE LGEM MODEL...WHICH BRINGS ALEX UP TO 90 KT BY 72 HOURS.
377
FXUS64 KHGX 280945
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
445 AM CDT MON JUN 28 2010
.DISCUSSION...
TROPICAL AIRMASS BEGINNING TO MOVE BACK INLAND. ANTICIPATE SCT
SHRA/TSTMS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. MAYBE NOT AS MUCH COVERAGE
ACROSS THE NRN 1/3 OF THE AREA WHERE MOISTURE LEVELS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY LOWER. HOWEVER COULD SEE SOME LATE AFTN/EVNG STORMS THERE
TOO SHOULD ANY OUTFLOWS FROM STORMS ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MOVING INTO N TX PROVIDE A FOCUS.
ALEX HAS EMERGED IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. MODELS IN FAIRLY CLOSE
AGREEMENT AS FAR AS THE EVENTUAL TRACK GOES...RANGING FROM MATAGORDA
COUNTY (GFS) TO NRN MEXICO (ECMWF). THE 00Z ECMWF LANDFALL
POSITION IS ABOUT 60 MILES NORTH OF THE 12Z RUN. CONDITIONS OVER
THE GULF WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG INTENSIFICATION.
UNFORTUNATELY TROF FCST TO DIP DOWN ACROSS EAST COAST NOW APPEARS
TO WEAKEN THE RIDGE SITUATED ACROSS THE NRN GULF ENOUGH FOR A MORE
NWWD TRACK. WHAT IS TROUBLESOME ARE THE OVERALL NWD FCST TRENDS.
RIDGE FILLING IN BEHIND THE TROF IN THE PLAINS COULD VERY WELL BE
THE KEY PLAYER AS TO KEEPING THE NASTIEST PART OF THIS SYSTEM TO
OUR SOUTH. GLOBAL MODELS ARE ALL IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT AS FAR AS
SYNOPTIC FLOW/POSITIONING INTO MID WEEK. VERY VERY VERY MINUTE
DIFFERENCES IN STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE COULD END UP IN THE DIFFERENCE
AS TO WHERE ALEX GOES INLAND. ECMWF/UKMET EXTEND A LITTLE (AND I
MEAN LITTLE) HIGHER HEIGHTS DOWN INTO CNTL TX THAN GFS AND CANADIAN...
HENCE A MORE SWD LANDFALL. (ANY OTHER DAY OF THE WEEK I'D WRITE
THE HEIGHT DIFFERENCES OFF AS NEGLIGIBLE). WILL CONTINUE GEARING
FCST TOWARD OFFICIAL TRACK BUT AM GETTING A BIT MORE CONCERNED...
OVERALL CIRCULATION WILL BE LARGE AND TS FORCE WINDS FCST TO
EVENTUALLY EXTEND UPWARDS OF 200 MILES FROM THE CENTER. A
CONTINUED JOG TO THE NORTH WOULD BRING THESE WINDS INTO PORTIONS
OF THE MARINE WATERS AND CWA.
TIDES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING ABOUT 1 FOOT ABOVE NORMAL. EXPECT
THESE TO INCREASE TO AROUND 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ON WED WITH ERLY
FETCH AND INCREASING SEAS IN PLACE. THIS COULD PUT BEACHFRONT
LOCATIONS AT RISK FOR SOME COASTAL FLOODING AT THAT TIME. WAVE
RUN-UP WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE. WILL LET DAY SHIFT EVALUATE THE
SITUATION BUT WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH
ISSUED IN THE FUTURE.
SO THRU AT LEAST THURS...EXPECT BANDS OF SHRA/TSTMS TO MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA. AREAS CLOSER TO THE COAST WILL SEE BETTER
CHANCES. TEMPS ARE UP FOR GRABS AND HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE
RAINFALL/CLOUD SITUATION. DIDN'T GO AS LOW AS GFS GUIDANCE TEMPS
OR AS HIGH OF POPS YET. DID EXTENDED HIGHER POPS INTO THE
WEEKEND. ASSUMING A FCST SOMEWHAT LIKE ECMWF PANS OUT...A DEEP
SERLY FETCH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THRU THEN.
&&
.MARINE...
A LOT TO CONSIDER FOR THE UPCOMING FCST AS TROPICAL STORM ALEX MAKES
ITSELF A LOT MORE RELEVANT TO THE TX COAST. HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO
WIND SPEEDS/WAVE HEIGHTS (UPWARD) STARTING AS EARLY AS TONIGHT ALONG
WITH ADDING AN SCEC. ONCE AGAIN A LOT OF THE MIDDLE/EXTENDED PART OF
THE FCST WILL DEPEND UPON THE ACTUAL TRACK OF ALEX AND ITS INTENSITY
AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE S/SWRN GULF. MARINE INTERESTS SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE LATEST INFORMATION ON THIS STORM. 41
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 96 77 95 76 91 / 20 30 30 20 40
HOUSTON (IAH) 95 78 94 77 90 / 30 20 30 30 40
GALVESTON (GLS) 91 82 90 82 88 / 40 20 30 40 40
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
FXUS64 KHGX 280945
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
445 AM CDT MON JUN 28 2010
.DISCUSSION...
TROPICAL AIRMASS BEGINNING TO MOVE BACK INLAND. ANTICIPATE SCT
SHRA/TSTMS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. MAYBE NOT AS MUCH COVERAGE
ACROSS THE NRN 1/3 OF THE AREA WHERE MOISTURE LEVELS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY LOWER. HOWEVER COULD SEE SOME LATE AFTN/EVNG STORMS THERE
TOO SHOULD ANY OUTFLOWS FROM STORMS ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MOVING INTO N TX PROVIDE A FOCUS.
ALEX HAS EMERGED IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. MODELS IN FAIRLY CLOSE
AGREEMENT AS FAR AS THE EVENTUAL TRACK GOES...RANGING FROM MATAGORDA
COUNTY (GFS) TO NRN MEXICO (ECMWF). THE 00Z ECMWF LANDFALL
POSITION IS ABOUT 60 MILES NORTH OF THE 12Z RUN. CONDITIONS OVER
THE GULF WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG INTENSIFICATION.
UNFORTUNATELY TROF FCST TO DIP DOWN ACROSS EAST COAST NOW APPEARS
TO WEAKEN THE RIDGE SITUATED ACROSS THE NRN GULF ENOUGH FOR A MORE
NWWD TRACK. WHAT IS TROUBLESOME ARE THE OVERALL NWD FCST TRENDS.
RIDGE FILLING IN BEHIND THE TROF IN THE PLAINS COULD VERY WELL BE
THE KEY PLAYER AS TO KEEPING THE NASTIEST PART OF THIS SYSTEM TO
OUR SOUTH. GLOBAL MODELS ARE ALL IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT AS FAR AS
SYNOPTIC FLOW/POSITIONING INTO MID WEEK. VERY VERY VERY MINUTE
DIFFERENCES IN STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE COULD END UP IN THE DIFFERENCE
AS TO WHERE ALEX GOES INLAND. ECMWF/UKMET EXTEND A LITTLE (AND I
MEAN LITTLE) HIGHER HEIGHTS DOWN INTO CNTL TX THAN GFS AND CANADIAN...
HENCE A MORE SWD LANDFALL. (ANY OTHER DAY OF THE WEEK I'D WRITE
THE HEIGHT DIFFERENCES OFF AS NEGLIGIBLE). WILL CONTINUE GEARING
FCST TOWARD OFFICIAL TRACK BUT AM GETTING A BIT MORE CONCERNED...
OVERALL CIRCULATION WILL BE LARGE AND TS FORCE WINDS FCST TO
EVENTUALLY EXTEND UPWARDS OF 200 MILES FROM THE CENTER. A
CONTINUED JOG TO THE NORTH WOULD BRING THESE WINDS INTO PORTIONS
OF THE MARINE WATERS AND CWA.
TIDES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING ABOUT 1 FOOT ABOVE NORMAL. EXPECT
THESE TO INCREASE TO AROUND 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ON WED WITH ERLY
FETCH AND INCREASING SEAS IN PLACE. THIS COULD PUT BEACHFRONT
LOCATIONS AT RISK FOR SOME COASTAL FLOODING AT THAT TIME. WAVE
RUN-UP WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE. WILL LET DAY SHIFT EVALUATE THE
SITUATION BUT WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH
ISSUED IN THE FUTURE.
SO THRU AT LEAST THURS...EXPECT BANDS OF SHRA/TSTMS TO MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA. AREAS CLOSER TO THE COAST WILL SEE BETTER
CHANCES. TEMPS ARE UP FOR GRABS AND HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE
RAINFALL/CLOUD SITUATION. DIDN'T GO AS LOW AS GFS GUIDANCE TEMPS
OR AS HIGH OF POPS YET. DID EXTENDED HIGHER POPS INTO THE
WEEKEND. ASSUMING A FCST SOMEWHAT LIKE ECMWF PANS OUT...A DEEP
SERLY FETCH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THRU THEN.
&&
.MARINE...
A LOT TO CONSIDER FOR THE UPCOMING FCST AS TROPICAL STORM ALEX MAKES
ITSELF A LOT MORE RELEVANT TO THE TX COAST. HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO
WIND SPEEDS/WAVE HEIGHTS (UPWARD) STARTING AS EARLY AS TONIGHT ALONG
WITH ADDING AN SCEC. ONCE AGAIN A LOT OF THE MIDDLE/EXTENDED PART OF
THE FCST WILL DEPEND UPON THE ACTUAL TRACK OF ALEX AND ITS INTENSITY
AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE S/SWRN GULF. MARINE INTERESTS SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE LATEST INFORMATION ON THIS STORM. 41
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 96 77 95 76 91 / 20 30 30 20 40
HOUSTON (IAH) 95 78 94 77 90 / 30 20 30 30 40
GALVESTON (GLS) 91 82 90 82 88 / 40 20 30 40 40
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
Not anymore...wxman57 wrote:The new parallel run of the GFS is south of Brownsville.
038
NOUS44 KHGX 281014
PNSHGX
TXZ235-236-290415-
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
514 AM CDT MON JUN 28 2010
ALTHOUGH TROPICAL STORM ALEX IS FORECAST TO MOVE INLAND AS A
HURRICANE WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION LATER THIS WEEK...THERE IS
STILL CONSIDERABLE FORECAST UNCERTAINTY THAT FAR OUT. NOW IS A
GOOD TIME AS ANY TO REVIEW ACTIONS TO TAKE PRIOR TO A TROPICAL
SYSTEM THREATENING YOUR AREA.
PERSONS LIVING IN THE TEXAS COASTAL AREAS SHOULD ALWAYS BE PREPARED
FOR A HURRICANE. SEVERAL THINGS CAN BE DONE IN ADVANCE COSTING LITTLE
OR NO MONEY. TAKING ACTION ON ALL OR A PORTION OF THE FOLLOWING CAN
SAVE VALUABLE TIME AND EFFORT WHEN A HURRICANE APPROACHES.
LEARN THE ELEVATION OF YOUR HOME. HOMES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST ARE
SUBJECT TO STORM SURGE. IF STORM SURGE AND RESULTING LEVELS ARE
BROADCAST YOU WILL BE ABLE TO DECIDE IF YOUR HOME IS IN DANGER OF
FLOODING.
BE FAMILIAR WITH THE HURRICANE EVACUATION ROUTE FOR YOUR NEIGHBORHOOD.
BE AWARE OF POSSIBLE FLOOD PRONE AREAS. DETERMINE THE NUMBER OF HOURS
IT COULD TAKE FOR YOU TO REACH A SAFE AREA DURING PEAK EVACUATION
TRAFFIC.
CHECK WITH EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OR THE RED CROSS TO DETERMINE THE
CLOSEST EMERGENCY SHELTER TO YOUR HOME AND WHAT YOU SHOULD BRING IF A
SHELTER IS USED. MAKE PRIOR ARRANGEMENTS IF YOU PLAN TO STAY WITH
RELATIVES OR FRIENDS. IF YOU LIVE ON THE IMMEDIATE COAST...A LOW LYING
AREA...OR A MOBILE HOME YOU SHOULD ALWAYS PLAN TO RELOCATE.
TO ASSIST IN RAPIDLY OBTAINING INSURANCE SETTLEMENTS AND APPROPRIATE
TAX DEDUCTIONS FOR LOSSES HAVE A COMPLETED INVENTORY OF PERSONAL
PROPERTY. INVENTORY CHECKLISTS CAN BE OBTAINED FROM YOUR INSURANCE
AGENT. TAKE PICTURES AND STORE IMPORTANT DOCUMENTS IN WATER/FIRE-PROOF
CONTAINERS OR A SAFETY DEPOSIT BOX.
WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR ALEX AND AREA RESIDENTS ARE ENCOURAGED
TO KEEP UP WITH THE LATEST FORECASTS AS WELL.
$$
NOUS44 KHGX 281014
PNSHGX
TXZ235-236-290415-
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
514 AM CDT MON JUN 28 2010
ALTHOUGH TROPICAL STORM ALEX IS FORECAST TO MOVE INLAND AS A
HURRICANE WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION LATER THIS WEEK...THERE IS
STILL CONSIDERABLE FORECAST UNCERTAINTY THAT FAR OUT. NOW IS A
GOOD TIME AS ANY TO REVIEW ACTIONS TO TAKE PRIOR TO A TROPICAL
SYSTEM THREATENING YOUR AREA.
PERSONS LIVING IN THE TEXAS COASTAL AREAS SHOULD ALWAYS BE PREPARED
FOR A HURRICANE. SEVERAL THINGS CAN BE DONE IN ADVANCE COSTING LITTLE
OR NO MONEY. TAKING ACTION ON ALL OR A PORTION OF THE FOLLOWING CAN
SAVE VALUABLE TIME AND EFFORT WHEN A HURRICANE APPROACHES.
LEARN THE ELEVATION OF YOUR HOME. HOMES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST ARE
SUBJECT TO STORM SURGE. IF STORM SURGE AND RESULTING LEVELS ARE
BROADCAST YOU WILL BE ABLE TO DECIDE IF YOUR HOME IS IN DANGER OF
FLOODING.
BE FAMILIAR WITH THE HURRICANE EVACUATION ROUTE FOR YOUR NEIGHBORHOOD.
BE AWARE OF POSSIBLE FLOOD PRONE AREAS. DETERMINE THE NUMBER OF HOURS
IT COULD TAKE FOR YOU TO REACH A SAFE AREA DURING PEAK EVACUATION
TRAFFIC.
CHECK WITH EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OR THE RED CROSS TO DETERMINE THE
CLOSEST EMERGENCY SHELTER TO YOUR HOME AND WHAT YOU SHOULD BRING IF A
SHELTER IS USED. MAKE PRIOR ARRANGEMENTS IF YOU PLAN TO STAY WITH
RELATIVES OR FRIENDS. IF YOU LIVE ON THE IMMEDIATE COAST...A LOW LYING
AREA...OR A MOBILE HOME YOU SHOULD ALWAYS PLAN TO RELOCATE.
TO ASSIST IN RAPIDLY OBTAINING INSURANCE SETTLEMENTS AND APPROPRIATE
TAX DEDUCTIONS FOR LOSSES HAVE A COMPLETED INVENTORY OF PERSONAL
PROPERTY. INVENTORY CHECKLISTS CAN BE OBTAINED FROM YOUR INSURANCE
AGENT. TAKE PICTURES AND STORE IMPORTANT DOCUMENTS IN WATER/FIRE-PROOF
CONTAINERS OR A SAFETY DEPOSIT BOX.
WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR ALEX AND AREA RESIDENTS ARE ENCOURAGED
TO KEEP UP WITH THE LATEST FORECASTS AS WELL.
$$
-
srainhoutx
- Site Admin
- Posts: 19616
- Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
- Location: Maggie Valley, NC
- Contact:
HGX has been busy this morning I see. HPC thoughts...heavy rainfall seems to be a concern for our area...
PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
351 AM EDT MON JUN 28 2010
VALID 12Z FRI JUL 02 2010 - 12Z MON JUL 05 2010
...MOISTURE FROM ALEX TO MOVE FROM TEXAS TO THE UPPER MIDWEST
DURING THE PERIOD...
ASIDE FROM CONTINUED DIFFERENCES WITH THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF
TROPICAL STORM ALEX...GLOBAL MODELS BEGIN THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD
IN EXCELLENT LONGWAVE AGREEMENT WITH AN OMEGA-BLOCK EXTENDING FROM
BRITISH COLUMBIA TOWARD NEW ENGLAND ERODING BY THE MIDDLE OF THE
PERIOD BEFORE BECOMING REPLACED WITH A MEAN BROAD TROUGH OVER THE
N. ROCKIES AND ACCOMPANYING PROGRESSIVE FLOW TOWARD SOUTHEASTERN
CANADA...ALL WHILE THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH STEADILY BUILDS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST.
REGARDING TROPICAL STORM ALEX...THE 00Z GFS/CANADIAN TRACK ALEX
ACROSS THE S. TEXAS COAST BY DAY 3. HOWEVER...THEIR SOLUTIONS LIE
NEAR THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SOLUTION ENVELOPE...
WITH THE LATEST NHC FORECAST FARTHER SOUTH AND CLOSE TO THE 00Z
GFS PARALLEL AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE 00Z ECMWF WHICH TAKE ALEX
INTO NORTHERN MEXICO BEFORE LOSING ITS SURFACE REFLECTION. EVEN
THE MORE SOUTHWARD GFS P/ECMWF DEPICT A TREMENDOUS SURGE OF HIGH
PW AIR (2.0-2.5 INCHES) BEGINNING ALONG THE TX/LA COAST DAYS 3-4
BEFORE EXPANDING NORTHWARD AND POSSIBLY INTERACTING WITH A COLD
FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE CNTRL-SRN PLAINS
DAYS 5-7...WHICH COULD PRODUCE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL.
ELSEWHERE...MODEL DIFFERENCES BECOME MORE NOTICEABLE ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST BY DAY 4 AS THE OMEGA-BLOCK BEGINS TO ERODE WITH THE 00Z
OPERATIONAL GFS NEAR THE STRONG EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE WITH
AMPLIFYING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/GREAT
BASIN...WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF/CANADIAN ARE WEAKER/MORE PROGRESSIVE.
ADDITIONAL TIMING/STRENGTH DIFFERENCES ARE EVIDENT ACROSS THE N.
ROCKIES BY DAY 7 AS THE FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY PROGRESSIVE WITH
AN ACCOMPANYING INCREASE IN SOLUTION SPREAD. THUS...THE PRELIM
PRESSURES/FRONTS WILL BEGIN WITH A 50/50 BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS
P/ECMWF...MOSTLY DUE TO TROPICAL STORM ALEX...THEN GRADUALLY
TRANSITION TOWARD A 00Z ECMWF/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN BLEND DAYS
5-7...WITH 70 PERCENT OF THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN USED BY DAY 7.
JAMES
PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
351 AM EDT MON JUN 28 2010
VALID 12Z FRI JUL 02 2010 - 12Z MON JUL 05 2010
...MOISTURE FROM ALEX TO MOVE FROM TEXAS TO THE UPPER MIDWEST
DURING THE PERIOD...
ASIDE FROM CONTINUED DIFFERENCES WITH THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF
TROPICAL STORM ALEX...GLOBAL MODELS BEGIN THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD
IN EXCELLENT LONGWAVE AGREEMENT WITH AN OMEGA-BLOCK EXTENDING FROM
BRITISH COLUMBIA TOWARD NEW ENGLAND ERODING BY THE MIDDLE OF THE
PERIOD BEFORE BECOMING REPLACED WITH A MEAN BROAD TROUGH OVER THE
N. ROCKIES AND ACCOMPANYING PROGRESSIVE FLOW TOWARD SOUTHEASTERN
CANADA...ALL WHILE THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH STEADILY BUILDS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST.
REGARDING TROPICAL STORM ALEX...THE 00Z GFS/CANADIAN TRACK ALEX
ACROSS THE S. TEXAS COAST BY DAY 3. HOWEVER...THEIR SOLUTIONS LIE
NEAR THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SOLUTION ENVELOPE...
WITH THE LATEST NHC FORECAST FARTHER SOUTH AND CLOSE TO THE 00Z
GFS PARALLEL AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE 00Z ECMWF WHICH TAKE ALEX
INTO NORTHERN MEXICO BEFORE LOSING ITS SURFACE REFLECTION. EVEN
THE MORE SOUTHWARD GFS P/ECMWF DEPICT A TREMENDOUS SURGE OF HIGH
PW AIR (2.0-2.5 INCHES) BEGINNING ALONG THE TX/LA COAST DAYS 3-4
BEFORE EXPANDING NORTHWARD AND POSSIBLY INTERACTING WITH A COLD
FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE CNTRL-SRN PLAINS
DAYS 5-7...WHICH COULD PRODUCE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL.
ELSEWHERE...MODEL DIFFERENCES BECOME MORE NOTICEABLE ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST BY DAY 4 AS THE OMEGA-BLOCK BEGINS TO ERODE WITH THE 00Z
OPERATIONAL GFS NEAR THE STRONG EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE WITH
AMPLIFYING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/GREAT
BASIN...WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF/CANADIAN ARE WEAKER/MORE PROGRESSIVE.
ADDITIONAL TIMING/STRENGTH DIFFERENCES ARE EVIDENT ACROSS THE N.
ROCKIES BY DAY 7 AS THE FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY PROGRESSIVE WITH
AN ACCOMPANYING INCREASE IN SOLUTION SPREAD. THUS...THE PRELIM
PRESSURES/FRONTS WILL BEGIN WITH A 50/50 BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS
P/ECMWF...MOSTLY DUE TO TROPICAL STORM ALEX...THEN GRADUALLY
TRANSITION TOWARD A 00Z ECMWF/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN BLEND DAYS
5-7...WITH 70 PERCENT OF THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN USED BY DAY 7.
JAMES
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srainhoutx
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Appears RECON is finding a stronger Alex this morning. Last vortex message suggests 989 mb with 57 kt flight level winds. Has moved very little over night as well.
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srainhoutx
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06Z Early Tracks...
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srainhoutx
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Latest...
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Hmm...
The 6z para GFS and HWRF runs are a tad bit interesting. It's not the small shift to the N with the para GFS but what both do to the storm after landfall. Takes a much more northerly course thru the state.
The 6z para GFS and HWRF runs are a tad bit interesting. It's not the small shift to the N with the para GFS but what both do to the storm after landfall. Takes a much more northerly course thru the state.
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srainhoutx
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Hopefully with all the data we will receive today from RECON and Special balloon releases the guidance will settle down to reasonable solution.
12Z...
AL, 01, 2010062812, , BEST, 0, 201N, 916W, 50, 989, TS
12Z...
AL, 01, 2010062812, , BEST, 0, 201N, 916W, 50, 989, TS
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Code: Select all
WHXX01 KWBC 281256
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1256 UTC MON JUN 28 2010
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE ALEX (AL012010) 20100628 1200 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100628 1200 100629 0000 100629 1200 100630 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 20.1N 91.6W 21.2N 92.4W 22.1N 93.4W 23.1N 94.2W
BAMD 20.1N 91.6W 20.8N 92.4W 21.3N 93.3W 22.0N 94.4W
BAMM 20.1N 91.6W 21.1N 92.5W 21.8N 93.4W 22.7N 94.3W
LBAR 20.1N 91.6W 21.4N 92.4W 22.9N 93.7W 24.6N 95.3W
SHIP 50KTS 59KTS 67KTS 75KTS
DSHP 50KTS 59KTS 67KTS 75KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100630 1200 100701 1200 100702 1200 100703 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 23.9N 95.1W 25.6N 96.8W 27.0N 97.6W 30.2N 95.5W
BAMD 22.7N 95.6W 23.9N 97.6W 24.7N 98.6W 26.2N 98.9W
BAMM 23.6N 95.3W 25.4N 97.0W 27.2N 97.5W 30.5N 95.8W
LBAR 26.4N 96.4W 29.6N 97.4W 31.8N 96.6W 32.7N 94.7W
SHIP 81KTS 90KTS 86KTS 69KTS
DSHP 81KTS 90KTS 34KTS 27KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 20.1N LONCUR = 91.6W DIRCUR = 330DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 19.2N LONM12 = 91.1W DIRM12 = 312DEG SPDM12 = 4KT
LATM24 = 18.6N LONM24 = 90.1W
WNDCUR = 50KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 35KT
CENPRS = 989MB OUTPRS = 1006MB OUTRAD = 250NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 60NM RD34SE = 30NM RD34SW = 30NM RD34NW = 60NM
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Mainly just "lurk" for info and I appreciate everyones knowledge. I had an observation that maybe can be explained .....srainhoutx wrote:06Z Early Tracks...
Based on that early track, it appears Alex wants to take a turn northward after landfall - and most all models agree with the northward turn once over land. But if Alex keeps up this slow pace (6 mph), then he has more time to intensify and progress north before landfall, right?
So what are the factors affecting his speed and will he tend to speed up or slow down in the near-term? I'm thinking the frontal ridge will speed his movement up, right? But then also I've seen some graphics that have a high pressure around New Mexico on Wed/Thurs - wouldn't that also "speed" him up to the North?
"Weather forecast for tonight: dark. Continued dark overnight, with widely scattered light by morning." - The late/great George Carlin
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Larissa
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Do I see this correct - many of the models seem to run the storm up the lower Texas coastline from Brownsville to Corpus or Matagorda?
If the center stays over water and runs up the coast, how well could it hold together and for how long if it were to be on a northerly track? Any history of this in the past?
If the center stays over water and runs up the coast, how well could it hold together and for how long if it were to be on a northerly track? Any history of this in the past?
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Good morning! First let me say how much I appreciate all the knowledge on this board - keep up the very valuable work! Second - I know this is simplifing this a lot, but if you were to give a Houston/Galveston hit a percentage what would it be? You know, like when they give us a 20% chance of rain? thanks! 
Satan is bad. Jesus is good. Be like Jesus.
Claudette was similar. Forecast was much further down the coast and it kept nudging up the coast and eventually strengthening at a decent clip before finally making its turn towards the Matagorda area.Larissa wrote:Do I see this correct - many of the models seem to run the storm up the lower Texas coastline from Brownsville to Corpus or Matagorda?
If the center stays over water and runs up the coast, how well could it hold together and for how long if it were to be on a northerly track? Any history of this in the past?
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weatherrabbit
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I agree with the claudette theory...also brett in aug '99 comes to mind
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srainhoutx
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More questions than answers right now. The next full package from NHC will likely give us some clues to future trends regarding Alex. The shifting of guidance does raise an eyebrow. Bottom line is we all need to be following closely future developments from N MX to LA.
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