Hurricane Alex. 40 Miles NNE of La Pesca. 100 MPH/948MB

[Rip76]

It was great... I got a little teary eyed watching it.

Back to topic.

[weatherguy425]

I don't get why everyone is making a huge deal of the new GFS.


* Couldn't just copy and paste the picture, so I'll just post the link.

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... start=1700

[biggerbyte]

Folks, you can expect a Texas to LA impact as of today's findings. I'm not sure why some are still hung up on this Mexico idea, but I would caution everyone to not assume anything.

Dr. Neil Frank is supposed to be on the 11 news at 5 and 6. You can count on him telling you what to expect. No hype... No BS... and no ego. Listen for the words, "we'll watch it". We just don't yet know where, but the where not is kinda obvious. Alex most likely will not be speaking Spanish. A brownsville landfall would be close, so we'll see.

[Scott747]

Folks, you can expect a Texas to LA impact as of today's findings. I'm not sure why some are still hung up on this Mexico idea, but I would caution everyone to not assume anything.

This quote doesn't make much sense. You don't understand why folks are 'hung up' on the S of the border idea and seem to infer that it will solely by a Tx/La storm, yet cautioning everyone not to assume anything...

[tgal]

Just an FYI: Doc Frank will be on air at 5 PM and 6 PM tonight.

Thanks for the info!

[vci_guy2003]

Are we in the clear for real, ed mahmoud?

[SusieinLP]

Would you clarify your post biggerbyte? Are you saying that Alex will make landfall at the TX?LA border or that the TX/LA border will feel the effects of this storm? Big difference there and am not sure what you meant by that. I don't think anyone is hung up on any given landfall but as of now the official track is TX/MX .

[ticka1]

Where ever Alex goes - would love to just see consisteny in the model runs - alot of bouncing around right now....

[Scott747]

12z HWRF -

[Snowman]

the fact of the matter is the storm is moving NORTH NORTH WEST right now and it is moving very slowly giving the high time to weaken. So i dont care what the models say im not letting my guard down until that things starts to move in a more westerly motion

[tireman4]

Are we in the clear for real, ed mahmoud?

I am not Ed, but I would say ( And I bet Dr Frank will say this too), keep watching this system. Dont sound the all clear until it is inland and dead. LOL

[Scott747]

A simple and straight forward post from AFM over at S2K. He is a well respected local met and many of us value his opinion. We definitely have entered into a time frame where these short-term movements could have a effect on the long term landfall area.

AFM -

I did a micro analysis of the heights at 500 mb from 12z... and the path is open for him to move NNW towards the upper TX coast. THat is where the break currently is. IF he begins to move with any purpose over the next 6 hours...the forecast models will shift north. If he meanders down there...they will shift south of BRO again.

[tireman4]

Agreed Scott. As I commented on, it was clear and to the point.

[unome]

I, for one, am certainly glad that Belo decided to keep the weather forum online - waiting on a hurricane in the Houston area wouldn't be the same without this - thanks to all for their input & stay safe everyone !

[updraft]

Alex is looking pretty weak at the moment.

I'm wondering if it will get back to hurricane strength.
What's the shear looking like down there?

A little wind shear in NW quadrant expected .... should keep Alex from hurricane strength for about 24 more hours. Last several hours of visible shows little to no development on NW quadrant of storm. That should start to change soon. Then who knows - RI possibly. Sea temps are right at minimum levels for RI - but it's a deep heat.

[Scott747]

Agreed Scott. As I commented on, it was clear and to the point.

Yes it was...

Last night after Tyler had a early look on the Euro in which it showed a adjustment to the N I was curious on what it was showing in the upper levels. After taking a look I commented back that it appeared to show a weaker H in the early stages and might allow Alex to gain more lat in the short-term which might have explained why the Euro had the shift it did on the 0z run.

Movement today could end up being critical.

[Scott747]

12z GFDL -

[biggerbyte]

Folks, you can expect a Texas to LA impact as of today's findings. I'm not sure why some are still hung up on this Mexico idea, but I would caution everyone to not assume anything.

This quote doesn't make much sense. You don't understand why folks are 'hung up' on the S of the border idea and seem to infer that it will solely by a Tx/La storm, yet cautioning everyone not to assume anything...

My apologies.. I thought it was obvious.

What I meant was, don't assume the Mexico camp is right and call it day. I don't want folks to go on their merry way thinking they do not need to watch this situation anymore.

[srainhoutx]

Latest

[Scott747]

Folks, you can expect a Texas to LA impact as of today's findings. I'm not sure why some are still hung up on this Mexico idea, but I would caution everyone to not assume anything.

This quote doesn't make much sense. You don't understand why folks are 'hung up' on the S of the border idea and seem to infer that it will solely by a Tx/La storm, yet cautioning everyone not to assume anything...

My apologies.. I thought it was obvious.

What I meant was, don't assume the Mexico camp is right and call it day. I don't want folks to go on their merry way thinking they do not need to watch this situation anymore.

Ahh.

For the most part everyone seems to be definitely keeping a eye on it and remaining cautious about any potential change in track and ready to act if warranted. To be honest I'm quite impressed with our local board as opposed to the other big tropical boards.

Even the guests are well behaved.