January 2019 - Active Progressive WX Pattern Ahead

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South_Texas_Storms
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There is good agreement in the latest long-range models and ensembles that our much anticipated pattern change will be arriving over the next few weeks. Canada will likely get cold in the 6-10 day frame, with potential cross polar flow bringing the cold air down into the U.S. and eventually Texas around or shortly after January 20.

My long-range coworker and I are in agreement that the January 20-February 20 time period will be filled with several threats of winter storms across the state. Just be patient...exciting times are likely coming soon!
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South_Texas_Storms wrote: Wed Jan 09, 2019 5:21 pm There is good agreement in the latest long-range models and ensembles that our much anticipated pattern change will be arriving over the next few weeks. Canada will likely get cold in the 6-10 day frame, with potential cross polar flow bringing the cold air down into the U.S. and eventually Texas around or shortly after January 20.

My long-range coworker and I are in agreement that the January 20-February 20 time period will be filled with several threats of winter storms across the state. Just be patient...exciting times are likely coming soon!
South Texas Storms glad to have you join us at the WXinfinity forum.
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CRASHWX
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South_Texas_Storms wrote: Wed Jan 09, 2019 5:21 pm There is good agreement in the latest long-range models and ensembles that our much anticipated pattern change will be arriving over the next few weeks. Canada will likely get cold in the 6-10 day frame, with potential cross polar flow bringing the cold air down into the U.S. and eventually Texas around or shortly after January 20.

My long-range coworker and I are in agreement that the January 20-February 20 time period will be filled with several threats of winter storms across the state. Just be patient...exciting times are likely coming soon!
Glad to have some company on the, “cold wintery weather is come”, brigade! Lol
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The last few frames of the 18Z FV3 GFS are really starting to look interesting. I realize, it's a long way out, but, it may give some credence to what has been discussed for weeks about the anticipated pattern change.
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0z GFS has the s word in Houston lol
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Katdaddy
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A cold morning across SE TX with temps in the 40s and a few mid 30s well inland. Increasing mid and high level clouds today ahead of the next low pressure system and front which will bring rain and a few thunderstorms possible Friday afternoon through Saturday morning. No severe weather expected with some areas picking up 1-2” rains. Clearing skies Saturday afternoon.
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Cpv17 wrote: Thu Jan 10, 2019 12:14 am 0z GFS has the s word in Houston lol
Dont.you.dare
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GEFS 16 day totals
GEFS 16 day totals
11-16 day temp
11-16 day temp
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CRASHWX
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CRASHWX wrote: Thu Jan 10, 2019 8:06 am A96B90DB-29AE-4322-8679-3D5C70EC79F5.png214A7A36-02EC-4013-AFED-26421B451A60.png
OOPS GOT THOSE ATTACHMENT TAGS REVERSED! Sorry
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srainhoutx
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Quick moving storm system Friday into Saturday may be a precursor of events to follow as we head toward mid/late January. Our fast moving storm looks to bring a decent shot of snow/wintry weather to the Carolinas, Virginia, West Virginia, Maryland, Delaware and possibly New Jersey and NYC.

Since the Sudden Stratospheric Warming Event, the Polar Vortex has split into at least 3 vortices with one strong one located near Hudson Bay/Eastern Canada. Waves of very cold air are now showing up in the Medium Range of the Global models dropping South across the Artic from Eastern Europe and Siberia. Each wave appears to pull more cold air into Canada and spilling into the United States particularly next week and beyond. There are indications that a -EPO anomaly is developing with a -AO and -NAO.

I really do not see any significant warm up ahead. The Saturday front looks to drop our high temperatures into the 40's, possibly low 50's along the Coast with night time lows in the 30's to low 40's.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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srainhoutx
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Also, El Nino chances have decreased to 65% probability by Spring and a Moderate El Nino is no longer anticipated. The most to expect is a weak El Nino and that is looking less likely. Therefore no significant impacts are expected in the Hemispheric Weather Patterns.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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srainhoutx wrote: Thu Jan 10, 2019 8:21 am Also, El Nino chances have decreased to 65% probability by Spring and a Moderate El Nino is no longer anticipated. The most to expect is a weak El Nino and that is looking less likely. Therefore no significant impacts are expected in the Hemispheric Weather Patterns.
Sooooooo...is that a good thing or a bad thing for wintery weather here?
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CRASHWX
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Well I would say according to what I have seen, if you love cold and stormy than yes if not ya might want to try hybernation. But obviously Srain or another Pro can opine on the subject with much greater efficiency than I...lol...mine is just a 2nd hand info thing.
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tireman4
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80
FXUS64 KHGX 101544
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
944 AM CST Thu Jan 10 2019

.DISCUSSION...
Some central Texas surface observations have been reporting rain this
morning with the eastward moving activity. Radar trends are showing
most of the echoes weakening as they move into our area, but have gone
ahead and added a mention of isolated showers for parts of our western
counties in case some of this holds together. Other than that, no other
changes significant have been made on the morning update. 42
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 448 AM CST Thu Jan 10 2019/

DISCUSSION...
Quiet/dry weather on tap for today with some mid/high clouds mov-
ing in from the west. High temperatures should range from the mid
to upper 50s across the area this afternoon...plus or minus a de-
gree or so depending on the thickness of the incoming cloud decks.
Regional radar is showing some weak echoes moving east across CTX
at present...but not expecting any of this to reach the ground if
it does make it into SETX today (given the dry airmass already in
place). The return of light onshore winds tonight/tomorrow should
help with slowly increasing temperatures/low-level moisture.

Models remain on track with the next round of showers/isolated TS
over our CWA for mainly Fri night/early Sat. The progged track of
the main upper low is still forecast to be north of the area, but
there should have enough moisture/lift for scattered showers/iso-
lated thunderstorms to develop along/ahead of the associated cold
front with this system. Rain totals to range from 1/2 - 1 inch on
average with isolated totals up to 2 inches possible.

Clearing and colder weather expected Sat afternoon/evening as the
activity moves east of the area. It should be a fairly quiet rest
of the weekend, but some of the models are still hinting at addi-
tional embedded weak shortwaves moving across from the west given
the flattish/zonal upper ridging in the wake of the initial trof.
(But not confident enough to add more than the occasional chicken
dimes.) Extended guidance indicating a stronger upper trof/system
perhaps by the end of next week. 41

MARINE...
Northeasterly winds 10 to 15 knots becoming east this
afternoon/evening as high pressure over North Texas slides eastward.
Onshore flow will prevail through early Saturday with winds
increasing and could see a brief period of SCEC winds Friday prior
to the frontal passage. Cold front moves through Saturday and winds
in the wake should warrant SCEC late Saturday into Sunday.
45

AVIATION...
VFR. Northeast winds becoming easterly along with an increase in
cirrus this morning and possibly some patchy altocumulus 6000-
9000ft late this afternoon.
45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 58 44 62 51 61 / 10 0 30 80 20
Houston (IAH) 60 44 64 55 67 / 0 0 10 70 40
Galveston (GLS) 57 52 62 57 66 / 0 0 10 60 40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$
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jasons2k
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It’s a little cooler outside than I’d like it to be. Not terrible for mid-January though. At least no freezes on the horizon.
Cpv17
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jasons wrote: Thu Jan 10, 2019 2:42 pm It’s a little cooler outside than I’d like it to be. Not terrible for mid-January though. At least no freezes on the horizon.
Once you start moving around outside and getting some work in and get your blood flowing, it almost begins to feel a bit warm out there lol
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South_Texas_Storms
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cperk wrote: Wed Jan 09, 2019 6:16 pm
South_Texas_Storms wrote: Wed Jan 09, 2019 5:21 pm There is good agreement in the latest long-range models and ensembles that our much anticipated pattern change will be arriving over the next few weeks. Canada will likely get cold in the 6-10 day frame, with potential cross polar flow bringing the cold air down into the U.S. and eventually Texas around or shortly after January 20.

My long-range coworker and I are in agreement that the January 20-February 20 time period will be filled with several threats of winter storms across the state. Just be patient...exciting times are likely coming soon!
South Texas Storms glad to have you join us at the WXinfinity forum.
Thanks, happy to be here!

And yeah, I'm definitely on the cold and wet train. It's looking like we're heading towards that kind of weather pattern by late January into February. We'll see...still plenty of time to monitor.
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Do you have a personal weather company, or are you an on air or behind the scenes met?
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CRASHWX
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3A67B1F5-A8FD-4FB7-9020-D77918CC07F5.png
GFS JAN 24 /25
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Last edited by CRASHWX on Thu Jan 10, 2019 8:10 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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