Hurricane Alex. 40 Miles NNE of La Pesca. 100 MPH/948MB

[redfish1]

i am not completely sold on the south texas landfall just yet i think the speed right now and the incoming front and the general direction of alex is giving the models a hard time. thats just my opinion.

[wxman57]

Regardless of how far north he comes in, upper TX coast is in for some coastal flooding. 15' swell's ... (this is NOT wave height or storm surge)

Picture3.png

What model was used to generate this graphic?

[Mr. T]

Alex's current slow movement is why models have trending back S early this afternoon.

One thing is for sure, though... We are going to get a lot of rain this week regardless.

[Rip76]

Some real tropical cloud decking around the Houston area today..

[srainhoutx]

Some real tropical cloud decking around the Houston area today..

Law enforcement reported a tornado just NW of Wharton a bit earlier.

[srainhoutx]

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 281809
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1809 UTC MON JUN 28 2010

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE ALEX (AL012010) 20100628 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100628 1800 100629 0600 100629 1800 100630 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 20.3N 91.7W 21.3N 92.7W 22.5N 93.9W 23.4N 95.1W
BAMD 20.3N 91.7W 20.9N 92.5W 21.6N 93.8W 22.3N 95.2W
BAMM 20.3N 91.7W 21.2N 92.6W 22.3N 93.8W 23.2N 95.0W
LBAR 20.3N 91.7W 21.3N 92.4W 22.8N 93.8W 24.5N 95.4W
SHIP 50KTS 58KTS 66KTS 72KTS
DSHP 50KTS 58KTS 66KTS 72KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100630 1800 100701 1800 100702 1800 100703 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 24.1N 96.4W 25.0N 99.1W 25.8N 102.4W 26.2N 104.4W
BAMD 23.0N 96.7W 23.9N 99.6W 24.5N 102.6W 25.1N 105.1W
BAMM 24.0N 96.4W 25.1N 99.2W 25.9N 102.3W 26.7N 104.5W
LBAR 26.2N 96.6W 29.5N 98.0W 31.5N 97.4W 32.8N 95.8W
SHIP 77KTS 81KTS 73KTS 59KTS
DSHP 77KTS 57KTS 30KTS 27KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 20.3N LONCUR = 91.7W DIRCUR = 335DEG SPDCUR = 4KT
LATM12 = 19.5N LONM12 = 91.4W DIRM12 = 332DEG SPDM12 = 5KT
LATM24 = 18.9N LONM24 = 90.7W
WNDCUR = 50KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 40KT
CENPRS = 990MB OUTPRS = 1006MB OUTRAD = 225NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 60NM RD34SE = 30NM RD34SW = 30NM RD34NW 

[updraft]

Regardless of how far north he comes in, upper TX coast is in for some coastal flooding. 15' swell's ... (this is NOT wave height or storm surge)

Picture3.png

What model was used to generate this graphic?

Uh oh, did I post something that I shouldn't have? It's the South Texas Regional Swell model from surfline.com. Here's the link http://www.surfline.com/swell-forecast/ ... texas_3307.

Here's Surfline.com's description on their website:

in 2001, Surfline launched LOLA, a revolutionary, global computer model that creates sophisticated wind and swell data used to power all of Surfline forecasts. More than a year in the making, LOLA incorporates the most advanced meteorological software available, which has been combined with proprietary knowledge gained from over 30 years of worldwide surf forecasting experience. Since its launch, LOLA has delivered the most trustworthy wind, swell and surf information available anywhere.

Here's a more detailed description of the model validation http://www.surfline.com/surfline/foreca ... m?id=27832 .

I know it's not "official" data or even "credible" data (with regards to Pro Met's data) - but it does an OK job at a graphical representation ....

[Hardcoreweather]

[wxman57]

Regardless of how far north he comes in, upper TX coast is in for some coastal flooding. 15' swell's ... (this is NOT wave height or storm surge)

What model was used to generate this graphic?

Uh oh, did I post something that I shouldn't have? It's the South Texas Regional Swell model from surfline.com. Here's the link http://www.surfline.com/swell-forecast/ ... texas_3307.

Here's Surfline.com's description on their website:

in 2001, Surfline launched LOLA, a revolutionary, global computer model that creates sophisticated wind and swell data used to power all of Surfline forecasts. More than a year in the making, LOLA incorporates the most advanced meteorological software available, which has been combined with proprietary knowledge gained from over 30 years of worldwide surf forecasting experience. Since its launch, LOLA has delivered the most trustworthy wind, swell and surf information available anywhere.

Here's a more detailed description of the model validation http://www.surfline.com/surfline/foreca ... m?id=27832 .

I know it's not "official" data or even "credible" data (with regards to Pro Met's data) - but it does an OK job at a graphical representation ....

No, that's not a problem. Just wondering what model was used to generate the graphic.

[Portastorm]

It appears ALEX is not in a hurry to go anywhere ... so with the prospects of a re-building ridge of high pressure ... unless Mr. A gets some legs, he's Mexico bound again.

[SusieinLP]

Yeah...Alex is taking his sweet time...Lets hope the ridge builds before Alex gets moving again...

[Mr. T]

18z NAM shifts a smudge north to the Brownsville area

[Hardcoreweather]

[Portastorm]

I'm not sure I buy into the whole upwelling argument at least with ALEX. If he was a well-developed storm with a strong core, I could see how you could make that argument ... but the last 12-18 hours, he hasn't been. So while he may have been sitting over the same water for the last 12 hours, he's not that well developed ... so how much warm water has really been used? I don't buy it.

Sheer looks like it's starting to relax. I expect ALEX to start getting stronger.

[srainhoutx]

Here is the discussion from NHC...

TROPICAL STORM ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010
400 PM CDT MON JUN 28 2010

DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT SUGGEST
THAT THE INTENSITY OF ALEX HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS. THE LAST PRESSURE MEASURED WAS 990 MB...UP JUST A BIT FROM
THIS MORNING. DATA FROM THE SFMR ON THE AIRCRAFT SUPPORT
MAINTAINING THE INTENSITY AT 50 KT. ALEX IS EXPERIENCING NORTHERLY
WIND SHEAR OF ABOUT 10 TO 15 KNOTS ACCORDING TO THE SHIPS MODEL AND
ANALYSES FROM UW-CIMSS. THE SHEAR IN COMBINATION WITH SOME DRY AIR
IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CIRCULATION HAVE LIKELY BEEN
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SPOTTY NATURE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE
CENTER OF ALEX TODAY. ALSO...SINCE ALEX HAS BEEN SITUATED OVER THE
SHALLOW SHELF WATERS WEST OF THE YUCATAN ALL DAY...SOME UPWELLING
OF COOL WATER COULD BE HINDERING DEVELOPMENT FOR THE TIME BEING.

ONCE THE MID TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO
MOVES AWAY FROM ALEX...THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BECOME MORE FAVORABLE
FOR INTENSIFICATION AS THE SHEAR DECREASES AND ALEX MOVES TOWARD A
WARM EDDY IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF. THE OFFICIAL NHC INTENSITY
FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...AND IS CLOSE TO A
BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS...WHICH ARE THE STRONGEST OF THE
INTENSITY MODELS. ALSO...ALEX COULD STRENGTHEN A LITTLE MORE BEFORE
LANDFALL BEYOND WHAT IS SHOWN IN THE 48-HOUR FORECAST...BUT NONE OF
THE GUIDANCE SHOWS ALEX REACHING MAJOR HURRICANE INTENSITY AT THIS
TIME.

ALEX HAS MOVED LITTLE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT THE BEST
LONG-TERM INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST...
330 DEGREES...AT 4 KNOTS. AFTER THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF MOVES EAST...THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE NOW IN GENERALLY
GOOD AGREEMENT IN BUILDING A RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF ALEX. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND THEN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH AN INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED. COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN
BETTER AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO AND HAS GENERALLY TRENDED
SOUTHWARD AND FASTER WITH THE FORWARD SPEED. ACCORDINGLY...THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO THE LEFT AND SHOWS AN
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...BUT NOW LIES TO THE RIGHT OF MOST OF
THE DYNAMICAL MODELS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE HURRICANE
WATCH AREA TONIGHT.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 28/2100Z 20.5N 91.8W 50 KT
12HR VT 29/0600Z 21.5N 92.4W 60 KT
24HR VT 29/1800Z 22.9N 93.7W 65 KT
36HR VT 30/0600Z 23.8N 95.1W 75 KT
48HR VT 30/1800Z 24.5N 96.4W 80 KT
72HR VT 01/1800Z 25.5N 99.5W 60 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 02/1800Z 26.0N 101.0W 25 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 03/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[weatherguy425]

Even though Alex probably wont make landfall in our area, it looks like we"ll still be effected.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
356 PM CDT MON JUN 28 2010

...TS ALEX MOVING TOWARDS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...

.DISCUSSION...
ALL EYES ARE ON TS ALEX AS IT SLOWLY MOVES NW. DEEPER TROPICAL
MOISTURE HAS MOVED INTO SE TX WELL AHEAD OF ALEX CONTRIBUTING TO
SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. GOES SOUNDER PRECIP WATER
IMAGERY SHOWS ABOUT 2-2.3 INCHES OF PRECIP WATER WHICH GPS
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT AS WELL. JUST OFF THE COAST IT LOOKS LIKE
MOISTURE DROPS OFF SOME SO THERE MAY BE A LULL IN SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TONIGHT. BOTH THE 12Z NAM/GFS HINT AT THIS
HAPPENING AS WELL AS HIGHER MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE UPPER TX
COASTAL AREAS BY LATE TUE AFTERNOON. BOTH MODELS SHOW 2.5 INCHES
OF PRECIP WATER MOVING INTO THE REGION WHICH WOULD AGAIN SUPPORT
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. POPS ARE NUDGED UP SOME FOR
TUE WITH 50 PERCENT INLAND AND 60 POPS ALONG THE COAST. WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED TO GET SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL GIVEN THE
MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE ATMOSPHERE. AT THIS TIME A FLOOD WATCH IS
NOT NEEDED...BUT COULD BE ISSUED TOMORROW OR WEDNESDAY DEPENDING
ON HOW MUCH RAINFALL OCCURS BETWEEN NOW AND THEN.

THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS HAD BEEN THE
TRACK OF TS ALEX. ECMWF/NAM SOLUTIONS WERE COMPLETELY DIFFERENT
FROM THE GFS/CANADIAN WHICH HAD A MORE NORTHWARD TRACK. THE
GFS/CANADIAN HAVE NOW JOINED THE ECMWF/NAM SOLUTIONS. EVEN MODEL
GUIDANCE FORM THE TROPICAL MODELS ARE IN MORE AGREEMENT. THE
MODELS ARE FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE NHC TRACK AND SEE NO REASON TO
DEVIATE FROM THAT SCENARIO. MODELS ARE AGREEING THAT AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE PLAINS BEHIND THE EASTERN TROUGH
TUE INTO WED. THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY PUSH ALEX MORE TO THE WNW
HEADED FOR NORTHERN MEXICO. SO WITH THIS TRACK IN MIND...POPS
HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO 50/60 PERCENT FOR MUCH OF SE TX WED/THU
WITH SOME HEAVY RAINFALL. LANDFALL OF ALEX IS EXPECTED LATE IN
THE DAY WED WHICH WILL KEEP A MOISTURE LADEN ATMOSPHERE OVER SE
TX. EXPECT POSSIBLY SOME RAINBANDS TO PUSH INTO THE AREA BUT
THESE WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON THE TRACK OF ALEX. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS TROPICAL MOISTURE
REMAINS OVER THE REGION. WITH LOWER RAIN CHANCES...HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY CREEP BACK INTO THE LOW/MID 90S. THIS
AGAIN WILL PUSH HEAT INDEX VALUES HIGHER.

AS FAR AS IMPACTS FROM ALEX...MAIN ISSUES WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL
ALONG THE COAST. INLAND AREAS CAN STILL EXPECT AS MUCH AS 1 TO 3
INCHES OF RAINFALL. STRONG EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
HIGHER SEAS AS WELL AS HIGHER TIDES. TIDES WILL BE CLOSE TO
CAUSING COASTAL FLOODING PROBLEMS ESPECIALLY FOR GALVESTON AND
BRAZORIA COUNTIES. TIDES WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE COASTAL
FLOOD WATCH SHOULD IT LOOK LIKE TIDE LEVELS WILL BE HIGHER. A
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT AND TIDE PRODUCT WILL HIGHLIGHT MORE
INFORMATION.

[srainhoutx]

Just a reminder that new data is being gathered from Special balloon launches that occurred at 18Z along with a G-IV mission (high altitude) underway at this time. Also Hurricane Hunter aircraft has just departed Keesler AFB for another mission to Alex. I suspect some new data will be ingested in time for the 00Z runs. Should make for an interesting night.

[srainhoutx]

Looking at the HDOB, I wonder if the Hurricane Hunters have binoculars so as to look down on the oil spill and all the ships and rigs nearby. They should be almost right over it now.

You realize they (Hurricane Hunters) have ongoing missions supporting the efforts of the spill.

18Z GFS @ 66 hours...

[SusieinLP]

Gene Norman seems to think the cone will more more to the right. He has not explained yet why but that is what he put out there....

[Scott747]

18z op takes it right around Corpus and up towards SAT. Somewhat N of the 12z runs. Don't think it's much to make unless any of the NOAA data was ingested in time which I doubt. Those will most likely be in the 0z runs.