Belmer wrote: ↑Thu Jan 17, 2019 8:35 am
I'd also like to take the time to note that be cautious on getting your information from other forums (i.e. Storm2k). While there are many great users and discussions that are discussed over there... many can be hype base with many members hugging every model run. During times like this we can give others a false sense of probability (or hope) when models sway back and forth. It is always wise to follow the upper-level and synoptic pattern to get a sense of what our weather could be rather than 300+ hour 2m-Temps or snowfall maps.
I think many on here would love nothing more than a SETX snowstorm but that is very rare down here and most winters are very unlikely to produce such an event. It has been mentioned by others several times that a pattern change was occurring after the New Year into February. Has that changed? Not at all. Back when the Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) was beginning to show up in December it was mentioned that it would take 3 or so weeks before models starting picking up on it. What we didn't know was the trajectory of that cold air once it would begin to build in northern Canada.
Generally, models have been showing the severity of the cold to our north and east of us. The frustration I have been reading from members (mainly on S2k) is one will post a model indicating one thing when a couple model runs later it has something completely different. The discussion is great to have on a 'what if' basis, but can become very blurred for those that use the sites for planning purposes. With that said, the pattern does indicate - as Andrew stated - an average to below average for the remainder of the winter. But extreme cold was never really looking promising to begin with this far south, just potentially cold enough for some frozen precipitation with an active Subtropical Jet Stream that has been cranking in the Pacific since late October and early November that brought our first excitement of snow/sleet on November 13th.
As I mentioned before, until we get a solid, sustained snowpack to our north then it's going to be difficult to get very cold temperatures down this way. A few days ago I think models were indicating a stronger snowpack to our north that fell last weekend in parts of the Central Plains, but much of that snow has started to melt, thus temperatures have come in a bit warmer for this weekend. In addition, not much of the 'arctic' air is getting displaced from the source region into southern/southwestern Canada as first thought. Despite the recent model runs showing a much 'warmer' end to January and start of February than once thought, models are still behaving chaotic and are having a difficult time trying to piece together what is going on long-term. They are probably a bit too warm if I had to say.
I for one am ready for baseball to start... which means I am ready to welcome Spring with arms wide open.
Thank you for this post. It is an excellent reminder that we should always be cautious when looking at models and posts from social media.
I would kindly ask that you refrain from singling-out Storm2k as the “main” culprit for publicly posting long-range model runs and then ‘hyping’ these extreme outcomes one way or another.
I am extremely proud to call Storm2k the world’s largest online community of weather enthusiasts. We certainly have our own set of rules and guidelines that prohibit members from posting false or innacurate information. Even though we have a fantastic staff of Moderators, we can’t catch everything. Most items get flagged - and flagged quickly - for a Mod to address. We do our best.
But to be clear - we don’t allow false information to be posted and we address those cases very quickly. And to further clarify - posting a model run 10 days out showing snow down to Brownsville is not posting false information.
That said, Storm2k has always been a very open forum for amateurs and Pro Mets alike. It’s a place meant for people to learn. Unlike some boards, we really encourage questions from amateurs and for folks to speak-up if they are unsure about something.
Every board has its own unique audience and its place.
Regarding posts of model runs and the accompanying commentary to stir the pot and hype things up - I would have to say Twitter and Facebook are far more pervasive than Storm2k ever was, or any decent weather board for that matter.
I surmise a lot more people retweet Joe Bastardi than random posts on Storm2k.
In addition, although the post volume here on WxInfinity is a lot less than Storm2k, there is just as much ‘speculation’ in the threads on this very forum as there is over there.
So again, please don’t single out Storm2k as being the primary culprit for stirring-up us weather nerds about potential extreme weather. It’s just not true. Twitter alone does enough to compensate for Storm2k many times over and then some.
Thank you,
Jasons
Executive Director of Storm2k and humble contributor to WxInfinity.
CRASHWX 