Hurricane Alex. 40 Miles NNE of La Pesca. 100 MPH/948MB

[Hardcoreweather]

[biggerbyte]

Don't pay any attention to the models today, folks. Alex is still moving n to nnw, and there is nothing right now to indicate any change to that. There are "supposed" to be some things occur later on that add a little more westerly swing, but I'm not holding my breath. We'll see how things look this evening. In the meantime, I'm looking forward to hearing from Doc today. You guys should really get your supplies in check if you have not already. Don't let the models fool you, as they are currently not to
be trusted.

[Houstonkid]

Don't pay any attention to the models today, folks. Alex is still moving n to nnw, and there is nothing right now to indicate any change to that. There are "supposed" to be some things occur later on that add a little more westerly swing, but I'm not holding my breath. We'll see how things look this evening. In the meantime, I'm looking forward to hearing from Doc today. You guys should really get your supplies in check if you have not already. Don't let the models fool you, as they are currently not to
be trusted.

I certainly understand about not letting our guard down because anything can happen, but to say don't pay attention to the models is silly. It seems every single post you make here has the tone of the sky is falling. I believe 99.9% of the people on this forum understand the seriousness of the situation.

[srainhoutx]

Good morning. I see the night crew was active. Regardless of where Alex eventually heads for landfall, there will likely be some stormy and perhaps windy weather in our area. We have been following this disturbance since June 18th when 'guidance' started sniffing out development and TX NWS offices started mentioning the potential for tropical trouble along the Gulf. This is where we find ourselves today with a cyclone very near Hurricane status to our S...

000
WTNT31 KNHC 291153
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ALEX INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 15A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010
700 AM CDT TUE JUN 29 2010

...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS ALEX MOVING FASTER TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.5N 92.7W
ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM ESE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
ABOUT 380 MI...610 KM SE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES

[JulesC]

[ I certainly understand about not letting our guard down because anything can happen, but to say don't pay attention to the models is silly. It seems every single post you make here has the tone of the sky is falling. I believe 99.9% of the people on this forum understand the seriousness of the situation.

I agree. Nobody really knows what this thing is going to do and we are all concerned about it or we wouldn't be reading this forum. We are right to have a healthy concern over this storm, but to have the attitude that "the sky is falling" creates anxiety that isn't warranted at this time in the game. Just my opinion.....


Julie

[Hardcoreweather]

lowest pressure now 982.7

[srainhoutx]

Shear has relaxed...

[srainhoutx]

Sunrise over the Gulf...

[biggerbyte]

[ I certainly understand about not letting our guard down because anything can happen, but to say don't pay attention to the models is silly. It seems every single post you make here has the tone of the sky is falling. I believe 99.9% of the people on this forum understand the seriousness of the situation.

I agree. Nobody really knows what this thing is going to do and we are all concerned about it or we wouldn't be reading this forum. We are right to have a healthy concern over this storm, but to have the attitude that "the sky is falling" creates anxiety that isn't warranted at this time in the game. Just my opinion.....


Julie

Oh that's right. Beat up on old BB day. I've been up all night watching this for you people. The fact of the matter is, the models have been wrong about Alex all along, they continue to be wrong today, and they will not catch up on the reality of things until the final day or two. It is classic behavior. I have the experience and the history with this sort of thing, and I've been a member of this forum for years. I'm glad you all have become much more worthy than I, hence the lack of appreciation for what I'm trying to do for you. Just don't get upset when you did not prepare because you just didn't think you needed to.

Lastly, I never said the "sky was falling". You got a dose of what Alex is doing this morning, vs. what you were told he would be doing when you all went to bed last night. Your lack of appeciation is astonishing. All of you.

I'm done. You "professionals" can have it. Offended isn't even the word for it.

[updraft]

Here's 2 graphics comparing the 2 "latest" visible sat images. I thought it was pretty cool to see Alex gaining strength: note the storms firing up in the NE quadrant and the "tightening" of the bands filling in to the WNW.

Picture1.jpg

Picture3.jpg

[singlemom]

Somewhat off topic but a valid question:

I'm volunteering for Cub Scout Day Camp this week in NW Houston. We were hit by a pretty intense (and rapid intensification) storm yesterday while the kids were outside. I know there's a little concern and associated need to plan amongst the Camp staff about Alex. I'm hearing bits and pieces that this system will be a significant rain maker later in the week for us, but it seems to be lost in the shuffle sometimes.

So, how much of a significant player will Alex be for storms as the week goes on? And, secondly (cause I'm just curious) if Alex heads around Corpus, would we be on the dirty side of the storm?

Thanks, guys (and thanks Byte for everything you've done over the years)

[HereInKaty]

Hey Biggerbyte don't you stop posting!!! I've been appreciating you, Mr. T, Srainhoutx, and countless others for 4 years now. It is so comforting to see EVERYONES opinion on the board...
AND I was one of the ones that stayed online several nights every summer and read all the "chasers" posts when there were landfalls. (any gulf landfall).

All of you "all nighters"; I listen to every word you say, click on all of your links and decide for myself what the storm is going to do.

I appreciate all of you and ya'll are the BOMB!

Catherine

[ticka1]

[ I certainly understand about not letting our guard down because anything can happen, but to say don't pay attention to the models is silly. It seems every single post you make here has the tone of the sky is falling. I believe 99.9% of the people on this forum understand the seriousness of the situation.

I agree. Nobody really knows what this thing is going to do and we are all concerned about it or we wouldn't be reading this forum. We are right to have a healthy concern over this storm, but to have the attitude that "the sky is falling" creates anxiety that isn't warranted at this time in the game. Just my opinion.....


Julie

Oh that's right. Beat up on old BB day. I've been up all night watching this for you people. The fact of the matter is, the models have been wrong about Alex all along, they continue to be wrong today, and they will not catch up on the reality of things until the final day or two. It is classic behavior. I have the experience and the history with this sort of thing, and I've been a member of this forum for years. I'm glad you all have become much more worthy than I, hence the lack of appreciation for what I'm trying to do for you. Just don't get upset when you did not prepare because you just didn't think you needed to.

Lastly, I never said the "sky was falling". You got a dose of what Alex is doing this morning, vs. what you were told he would be doing when you all went to bed last night. Your lack of appeciation is astonishing. All of you.

I'm done. You "professionals" can have it. Offended isn't even the word for it.

Please don't leave you are a veteran to this board. These others are fly by night posters. We need folks like you that give us straight shooting information even if it goes against everything the experts, pros, naysayers are saying....more times then not I'm sitting here reading and nodding my head in agreement.

I was up all night Sunday and was in a difficult mood yesterday - I didn't pull another allnighter. Go get some sleep. Alex will still be here when you wake up and start posting again!

[srainhoutx]

Many of us have learned throughout the years the importance of rest prior to any threat. I will state again that often the most stressful period is the days leading up to a landfall particularly the closer folks are to the landfall areas. Emotions can run a bit high and we all deal with stress differently. We have a great group of folks that do strive to provide good and factual information. This is what makes our Forum so popular when any weather event threatens our area as well as our neighbors throughout the region. Back to discussing Alex.

[sau27]

Alex seems to be moving in almost an amoeba like fashion. There is a blow up of convection, then it dies down, then it blows up again to the NNW. There just doesnt seem to be a smooth movement of the center. Personally its making it a little difficult to keep track of. However he does need to start making more of a turn to the west if he is going to stay on course. I would guess if he strengthens today it will quit making these seeming jumps on the satellite.

In my personal opinion I wouldnt be surprised to see it go between Brownsville and Corpus if it doesn't hang a left very soon.

[tireman4]

[ I certainly understand about not letting our guard down because anything can happen, but to say don't pay attention to the models is silly. It seems every single post you make here has the tone of the sky is falling. I believe 99.9% of the people on this forum understand the seriousness of the situation.

Oh that's right. Beat up on old BB day. I've been up all night watching this for you people. The fact of the matter is, the models have been wrong about Alex all along, they continue to be wrong today, and they will not catch up on the reality of things until the final day or two. It is classic behavior. I have the experience and the history with this sort of thing, and I've been a member of this forum for years. I'm glad you all have become much more worthy than I, hence the lack of appreciation for what I'm trying to do for you. Just don't get upset when you did not prepare because you just didn't think you needed to.

Lastly, I never said the "sky was falling". You got a dose of what Alex is doing this morning, vs. what you were told he would be doing when you all went to bed last night. Your lack of appeciation is astonishing. All of you.

I'm done. You "professionals" can have it. Offended isn't even the word for it.

Stay BB. We love ya. I agree with you, you cannot always trust the models. I do remember on Storm 2k that the "old timers" at the Brownsville NWS office could sniff things out before the models and most of the time, were right. I am not flaming Julie and Houston Kid, but BB may have a point. Alex has not been behaving since the day he was born.

[srainhoutx]

Somewhat off topic but a valid question:

I'm volunteering for Cub Scout Day Camp this week in NW Houston. We were hit by a pretty intense (and rapid intensification) storm yesterday while the kids were outside. I know there's a little concern and associated need to plan amongst the Camp staff about Alex. I'm hearing bits and pieces that this system will be a significant rain maker later in the week for us, but it seems to be lost in the shuffle sometimes.

So, how much of a significant player will Alex be for storms as the week goes on? And, secondly (cause I'm just curious) if Alex heads around Corpus, would we be on the dirty side of the storm?

Thanks, guys (and thanks Byte for everything you've done over the years)

Thanks again for bringing up the heavy rainfall concern singlemom. We appear to be on the dirty side of Alex with landfall expected to our S and W. The NE quadrant usually will contains a tremendous amount of tropical moisture that can feed into the area E of where landfall occurs. That can persist for several days as the moisture feed off the Gulf continues and relaxes. I suspect that even a N MX landfall will allow for a chance of tropical showers and storms throughout the weekend. If Alex tracks closer to our area, that opens the door to many other issues. Needless to say we need to keep an eye on the situation as it unfolds.

[tireman4]

Bill Read was on KTRH 740 this morning and was comparing this to Claudette in 2003. He said the same issues were there in regards to when it was going to turn.

Hmmmm.

From Air Force Met at Storm 2K, one of the pro mets whom we respect a ton. I agree with Srain, always keep a watchful eye for anything and be prepared. Not trying to sound an alarm, just saying, be prepared.

http://www.wunderground.com/data/dhc_ar ... 200303.gif

[Scott747]

This may have been missed earlier...

In the 4 am disco the NHC forecaster (Stacy Stewart) brought up the fact that, yes in the short-term the movement of Alex was to the right of the consensus models and based on real time sat images the upper level flow pattern was oriented from north to south and was reason to expect this continued motion for six to twelve hours eventually resulting in a definitive turn like the models indicated. So instead of changing the track further down the coast he went against the models and used the real time date to keep the track as it was and noted that the foretasted track was well right of the guidance.

So what we have here is proof that the NHC went against the consensus of the models and went with what the storm was showing and using that as their projected track. While there is plenty of hearty pros vs. cons on the use of models, be it amateurs or pro forecasters, we know that the NHC doesn't use them as the only tool.

Now we are close to six hours since the last NHC advisory and if there still appears to be no indication of a more pronounced turn to the NW/WNW then we should see some mention of this and could even see a slight adjustment to the track.

The next advisory should be out in a hour....

[SusieinLP]

Hey biggerbyte don't stop posting. Take a step away, have a nap and some coffee and come back. Forum would not be the same without you....


Back to Alex.....Still waiting for the turn....

Edited out question already asked...