I am really not sure if I am going to intercept this one. Due to it's size it's going to struggle to get stronger than a Cat 1
Hurricane Alex. 40 Miles NNE of La Pesca. 100 MPH/948MB
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Looking at the last two center fixes from Recon, I would concur with that observation. Today's Recon crew is having a heck of a time penetrating the center on the 1st pass. Saw they had to loop around and go back on both center fixes.
Put the wet stuff on the red stuff!
Okay Okay I get we aren't getting the landfalling hurricane with the eye going over us - but are we going to see any rain from Alex here in Houston? Hearing and reading so called "experts" say we won't see anything to we are going to see massive amounts of rain here in SE Texas?
Any idea?
Any idea?
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Outer rain bands are hitting the coast right now from Galveston to Corpus. I would expect rain chances to increase throughout the day. Were not talking 10-14 inch range. But given their tropical and slower moving nature; if you happen to be under one, 2-3 inches is not out of the question.ticka1 wrote:Okay Okay I get we aren't getting the landfalling hurricane with the eye going over us - but are we going to see any rain from Alex here in Houston? Hearing and reading so called "experts" say we won't see anything to we are going to see massive amounts of rain here in SE Texas?
Any idea?
Put the wet stuff on the red stuff!
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Updated 12Z five day total QPF...
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000
WTNT31 KNHC 291431
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ALEX ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010
1000 AM CDT TUE JUN 29 2010
...ALEX NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH WINDS JUST BELOW
HURRICANE STRENGTH...
SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.7N 93.1W
ABOUT 310 MI...495 KM ESE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM SE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES
WTNT31 KNHC 291431
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ALEX ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010
1000 AM CDT TUE JUN 29 2010
...ALEX NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH WINDS JUST BELOW
HURRICANE STRENGTH...
SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.7N 93.1W
ABOUT 310 MI...495 KM ESE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM SE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES
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Ed Mahmoud wrote:Seems like forum activity is dropping now
In total there are 41 users online :: 8 registered, 1 hidden and 32 guests (based on users active over the past 5 minutes)
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Code: Select all
000
FONT11 KNHC 291431
PWSAT1
TROPICAL STORM ALEX WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010
1500 UTC TUE JUN 29 2010
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALEX WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
22.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/HR.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED X X 1 4 39 NA NA
TROP DEPRESSION X 1 4 16 35 NA NA
TROPICAL STORM 48 20 28 57 21 NA NA
HURRICANE 52 79 68 22 5 NA NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 49 60 44 16 3 NA NA
HUR CAT 2 2 16 17 4 2 NA NA
HUR CAT 3 X 3 5 2 1 NA NA
HUR CAT 4 X 1 1 X X NA NA
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X NA NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 65KT 75KT 80KT 50KT 25KT NA NA
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
GFMX 280N 910W 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
GFMX 280N 930W 34 4 7(11) 3(14) 1(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16)
PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
GALVESTON TX 34 X 5( 5) 4( 9) 2(11) 2(13) X(13) X(13)
HOUSTON TX 34 X 3( 3) 4( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10)
AUSTIN TX 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
SAN ANTONIO TX 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 4(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12)
FREEPORT TX 34 X 7( 7) 6(13) 4(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18)
GFMX 280N 950W 34 3 12(15) 9(24) 3(27) 1(28) X(28) X(28)
GFMX 280N 950W 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
PORT O CONNOR 34 1 9(10) 11(21) 5(26) 2(28) X(28) X(28)
PORT O CONNOR 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
CORPUS CHRISTI 34 1 9(10) 19(29) 10(39) 3(42) X(42) X(42)
CORPUS CHRISTI 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
CORPUS CHRISTI 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
GFMX 270N 960W 34 4 31(35) 22(57) 4(61) 1(62) X(62) X(62)
GFMX 270N 960W 50 X 3( 3) 11(14) 3(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18)
GFMX 270N 960W 64 X X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
BROWNSVILLE TX 34 3 31(34) 45(79) 8(87) 1(88) X(88) X(88)
BROWNSVILLE TX 50 X 3( 3) 34(37) 14(51) 1(52) X(52) X(52)
BROWNSVILLE TX 64 X X( X) 13(13) 9(22) 1(23) X(23) X(23)
GFMX 250N 960W 34 13 72(85) 11(96) 1(97) X(97) X(97) X(97)
GFMX 250N 960W 50 1 44(45) 30(75) 2(77) 1(78) X(78) X(78)
GFMX 250N 960W 64 X 18(18) 27(45) 3(48) X(48) X(48) X(48)
LA PESCO MX 34 3 7(10) 19(29) 5(34) 3(37) X(37) X(37)
LA PESCO MX 50 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
LA PESCO MX 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
TAMPICO MX 34 2 5( 7) 4(11) 2(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14)
TUXPAN MX 34 2 4( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10)
VERACRUZ MX 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
MERIDA MX 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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This mornings shot of the Gulf: http://www.tceq.state.tx.us/assets/publ ... atest.jpeg
Put the wet stuff on the red stuff!
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Bluefalcon wrote:This mornings shot of the Gulf: http://www.tceq.state.tx.us/assets/publ ... atest.jpeg
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Alex is just so big! I looked at the satellite and this storm pretty much fills up the entire GOM......
Clouds are moving in off the bay....
Clouds are moving in off the bay....
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Recon is inbound to pickup 3rd center fix, should get a real good fix on direction and speed.
Put the wet stuff on the red stuff!
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the NHC Discussion supports this as well...SusieinLP wrote:Alex is just so big! I looked at the satellite and this storm pretty much fills up the entire GOM......
Clouds are moving in off the bay....
THE AIRCRAFT DATA SHOW THAT THE 34 KT WIND RADII HAVE EXPANDED OVER
ALL QUADRANTS EXCEPT THE SOUTHWEST. BETWEEN THIS AND THE FASTER
FORWARD MOTION...THERE IS NOW ABOUT 12 HOURS LESS TIME TO MAKE
PREPARATIONS BEFORE THE ONSET OF TROPICAL-STORM FORCE WINDS IN THE
WARNING AREA THAN COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
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Here's a pretty cool pic from G-Town Surf.com in Galveston of an outer rain band from Alex. Won't be long now before buckets of wet stuff:
http://www.g-townsurf.com/
"Weather forecast for tonight: dark. Continued dark overnight, with widely scattered light by morning." - The late/great George Carlin
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Good news!!!! After my post this morning, Alex has begun to turn some. The next thing to watch is if this trend continues, he does not stall, or he does enter, then exit and begin again like some have suggested. As far now, south Texas will feel the worse effects. Folks north of there can count on some rain. How much depends on where you are.
Cool to watch radar and see the spiraling bands come on shore and rotate around. Weather never ceases to amaze me. Even with Alex going in Mexico - we are close to 8 hours away and feeling the affects.
Thanks for the travel info ED. I am going to sit this one out and hopefully get in on what ever that it is the models have been showing in the NE gulf in 84 hrs. Models have been showing what looks to be Bonnie for about a week now on different runs.
Here are the latest model runs for Alex and they are looking better for yall
http://i508.photobucket.com/albums/s330 ... 576155.gif
Here are the latest model runs for Alex and they are looking better for yall
http://i508.photobucket.com/albums/s330 ... 576155.gif
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Recon just fixed the center. Looks a little more west than northwest from the previous fix. Speed looks to be the same. NHC will probably be adjusting the track a little more south with this afternoons update. So far I would say that the EURO has been spot on over the last 3 days.
Put the wet stuff on the red stuff!
Clouds are moving pretty fast.....not the usual puffy clouds that just hover around....
Rain is just to the south of LaPorte but not making it this far yet...
Rain is just to the south of LaPorte but not making it this far yet...