July 2019: Warming Trend/Slight Chances For Rain

[srainhoutx]

Likely an Upgrade to Hurricane Barry at 10 AM

Code: Select all

AL, 02, 2019071312,   , BEST,   0, 293N,  919W,  65,  993, HU

[srainhoutx]

Interesting to see the Lake Charles 12Z sounding showing an extremely tropical airmass with PW's of 2.38 which is near the maximum moving value of 2.40

[srainhoutx]

Radar indicates the center will pass over Crowley and the Jennings over the next hour. Remember all the weather is located off to the East and South of that center.

[unome]

from MIMIC TC for Barry http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... npage.html

animated gifs
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... t24hrs.gif
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... t48hrs.gif


MIMIC TPW
good http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... anim=html5

better http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... anim=html5

best https://realearth.ssec.wisc.edu/?produc ... imate=true

[unome]

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
https://www.facebook.com/pg/NWSNHC/posts

Director Ken Graham will host a Facebook Live session on Barry at 10:25am CDT

[srainhoutx]

The center of Barry is fully onshore and wobbling along generally to the WNW. LCH Radar shows that meso vort that has been rotating within a bit broader area of low pressure for the past 24 hors. That meso vort is where RECON found the lowest pressure during its first pass.

https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.p ... h&loop=yes

[srainhoutx]

Breaking: Tropical Storm Warnings hoisted Westward from Cameron to Sabine Pass...

BULLETIN
HURRICANE BARRY ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022019
1000 AM CDT SAT JUL 13 2019

...BARRY BECOMES A HURRICANE AS IT IS MOVING ONTO THE LOUISIANA
COAST...
...DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, HEAVY RAINS, AND WIND CONDITIONS
OCCURRING ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.6N 92.0W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM S OF LAFAYETTE LOUISIANA
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM W OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE LOUISIANA COAST
FROM CAMERON TO SABINE PASS.

THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE LOUISIANA COAST EAST OF GRAND ISLE HAS
BEEN DISCONTINUED.

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE MISSISSIPPI COAST HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* INTRACOASTAL CITY TO GRAND ISLE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO GRAND ISLE
* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW
ORLEANS
* INTRACOASTAL CITY TO SABINE PASS

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* INTRACOASTAL CITY TO BILOXI
* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BILOXI TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS, CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE
DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A
DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS
LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS, PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR
LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BARRY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 29.6 NORTH, LONGITUDE 92.0 WEST. BARRY IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH (9 KM/H), AND A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT, FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH ON SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF BARRY WILL
MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN LOUISIANA TODAY, INTO CENTRAL LOUISIANA
TONIGHT, AND INTO NORTHERN LOUISIANA ON SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW NEAR 75 MPH (120 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. AS IT MOVES INLAND, BARRY IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN BELOW
HURRICANE STRENGTH IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS, AND IT IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ON SUNDAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES (75 KM) TO
THE EAST OF THE CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD
UP TO 175 MILES (280 KM) FROM THE CENTER. THE NATIONAL OCEAN
SERVICE STATION AT EUGENE ISLAND, LOUISIANA RECENTLY REPORTED
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 62 MPH AND A WIND GUST OF 82 MPH.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB (29.33 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR BARRY CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCDAT2 AND WMO HEADER WTNT42 KNHC.

STORM SURGE: THE COMBINATION OF A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND THE
TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY
RISING WATERS MOVING INLAND FROM THE SHORELINE. THE WATER COULD
REACH THE FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND SOMEWHERE IN THE INDICATED
AREAS IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

INTRACOASTAL CITY TO SHELL BEACH...3 TO 6 FT
SHELL BEACH TO BILOXI MS...3 TO 5 FT
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...3 TO 5 FT
BILOXI MS TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER...2 TO 4 FT
LAKE MAUREPAS...1 TO 3 FT

SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE
AND THE TIDAL CYCLE, AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOR
INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

RAINFALL: BARRY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
10 TO 20 INCHES OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND
SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI, WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 25 INCHES.
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY, TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES ARE EXPECTED, WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES.
THIS RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO DANGEROUS, LIFE THREATENING
FLOODING.

WIND: HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING OVER A SMALL AREA EAST OF
THE CENTER AND SHOULD PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA TODAY.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING AREA TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER AT THIS TIME. WIND GUSTS
TO TROPICAL-STORM FORCE IN SQUALLS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG PORTIONS OF
THE COASTS OF MISSISSIPPI, ALABAMA, AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE THROUGH TONIGHT.

TORNADOES: A FEW TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA, SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI, AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 100 PM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 400 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[srainhoutx]

Hurricane Barry Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022019
1000 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2019

Between 11-12Z, the National Ocean Service station at Eugene
Island, Louisiana, reported sustained winds of 62 kt and a peak
gust of 74 kt at an elevation of about 10 m. Doppler radar winds
from the Slidell WSR-88D suggested surface winds of 60-65 kt as
well. In addition, an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
reported SFMR wind estimates of 60-63 kt near Eugene Island, and
850-mb flight-level winds of 72 kt. Based on these data and the
possibility that the strongest winds were not sampled, it is
estimated that Barry became a hurricane around 11-12Z despite its
less than classical appearance in satellite imagery. It should be
noted that hurricane-force winds are limited to a small area east of
the center, and that the upgrade to a hurricane means little in
terms of the overall impacts from Barry.

Barry is now moving northwestward with an initial motion of 310/5.
The center should cross the Louisiana coast during the next few
hours, then move slowly toward the north-northwest and north through
Louisiana for the next 36 h as the cyclone moves through a weakness
in the mid-level ridge to the north. This general motion should
continue until the system dissipates. The new NHC track forecast is
nudged a little to the west of the previous one based on the initial
position and a slight westward shift in the track guidance.

Barry should quickly weaken below hurricane strength as it moves
onshore, and subsequently it is forecast to weaken below tropical
storm strength between 24-36 h and degenerate into a trough by 96 h.
The new NHC intensity forecast is basically an update of the
previous one.

Key Messages:

1. Life-threatening storm surge inundation is ongoing along the
coast of southern and southeastern Louisiana, portions of Lake
Pontchartrain, and portions of coastal Mississippi where a Storm
Surge Warning is in effect.

2. Life-threatening, significant flash flooding and river flooding
will become increasingly likely later today and tonight as Barry
moves inland, especially across portions of south-central and
southeast Louisiana into Mississippi. The slow movement of Barry
will result in a long duration heavy rainfall and flood threat from
Sunday into next week, extending from the central Gulf Coast north
across the Lower to Mid Mississippi Valley and portions of the
Tennessee Valley.

3. Hurricane conditions are occurring within portions of the
Hurricane Warning area along the Louisiana coast. Tropical storm
conditions will continue along much of the Louisiana coast and
spread inland across portions of the lower Mississippi Valley where
tropical storm warnings are in effect.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/1500Z 29.6N 92.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 14/0000Z 30.4N 92.4W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
24H 14/1200Z 31.6N 92.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
36H 15/0000Z 33.0N 93.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 15/1200Z 34.3N 93.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
72H 16/1200Z 37.5N 92.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 17/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

[stormlover]

Warnings to Sabine pass now this just keeps getting closer to tx

[davidiowx]

Warnings to Sabine pass now this just keeps getting closer to tx

We are still on the dry and hot side and will continue to be. I think those warning are primarily for winds. It is amazing that Barry kept going west when everyone (except the UKMET) kept it way east of where it actually made landfall.

[stormlover]

Yeah no doubt

[tireman4]

Keep vigilant. Be preapred. Anything can happen..until it has dissipated

[davidiowx]

Keep vigilant. Be preapred. Anything can happen..until it has dissipated

This is great advice!

[Rip76]

Interesting radar this morning, if that is the center near Lake Charles.

[TexasBreeze]

I don't think it is reforming to the south, but I do see on radar it is staying near the coast moving slowly west toward Lake Charles. I have seen rumblings of it being south of Galveston, but the circulation is inland and nothing circling south of that.

[stormlover]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... roduct=vis

[srainhoutx]

Lake Charles radar suggests the meso vort rotating within the broader area of low pressure is about to complete a cyclonic loop and pass very close to the Coast south of Jennings. I see very little movement with the broader area of surface low pressure currently. We will need to see of that meso vort tugs on the stronger convection associated with the mid/upper level circulations that are offshore.

[DoctorMu]

Warnings to Sabine pass now this just keeps getting closer to tx

We are still on the dry and hot side and will continue to be. I think those warning are primarily for winds. It is amazing that Barry kept going west when everyone (except the UKMET) kept it way east of where it actually made landfall.

Lake Charles, whether we like it or not!

[djmike]

Odd here in Beaumont. Cloudy. Few light breezes but misting. No drops. No rain. A constant mist falling.

[djmike]

When is the next cone update? I know normally at 4 pm but now that Barry is crossing the coast and hurricane status, doesn’t NHC update the cone sooner now or am i remembering wrong? Looking at models, it still looks like NHC track is east of models as it moves NW into central LA.