Rip76 wrote: ↑Sun Jul 19, 2020 3:27 pm
Very interesting out there.
Incoming tropical surge of moisture. Maybe a wave.
FXUS64 KHGX 192043
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
343 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2020
.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Monday]...
This afternoon has mirrored yesterday`s fairly closely thus far,
with radar imagery showing scattered showers and thunderstorms
confined mainly around and south of the I-10 corridor. As we saw
last night, coverage should continue to push further inland over
the next several hours and subsequently dissipate in the early
evening. Southeast winds should become light and variable
overnight, which could prove favorable for the development of some
brief patchy fog in some areas given the strong near-surface
moisture in place. Nonetheless, this activity should neither be
long-lasting nor widespread.
Precipitation coverage should increase tomorrow as a stronger
surge of moisture should arrive onshore, pushing PW values across
the area above 2.0 in. While the overall pattern of convective
development should remain similar with initial activity developing
offshore in the morning and expanding inland by the early
afternoon, showers and thunderstorms should be more widespread
than what has been observed in the past few days with this
increase in near-surface moisture. Some brief but locally heavy
downpours could be possible with any developing storms.
Tomorrow should be one of the cooler days of the month across the
area, with most coastal locations seeing highs in the upper 80s
and inland areas just creeping into the 90s. Overnight lows remain
elevated, however, with values in the upper 70s still exceeding
climatological normals by approximately 3-5 degrees.
Cady
.LONG TERM [Monday Night Through Sunday]...
Elevated shower and thunderstorm chances will remain in the forecast
Monday night and Tuesday with two inch precipitable water values
lingering across the area. Wednesday could end up being the less active
day of the week as weak ridging builds into the area. The influence of
a tropical wave moving westward across the Gulf of Mexico and toward
the Texas coast looks to begin Thursday afternoon but more likely
Thursday night and Friday. This system will bring increasing shower and
thunderstorm chances back to the area, and locally heavy rainfall might
be possible if precipitable water values approach 2.5 inches as some
models are forecasting. It is still too early to tell where the
heaviest rainfall potential could set up, and it will likely end up
depending on the location and intensity of this system. This
afternoon`s Tropical Weather Outlook from the National Hurricane Center
has low formation chances (20%) over the next five days, and we will
continue to monitor the progress of this system as the upcoming week
progresses. Our forecast has rain chances persisting into the weekend.
Lower afternoon high temperatures can be expected for much of the
period due to the increase in cloud cover and rain. 42
&&
.AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]...
Scattered SHRA/TSRA developing across the area once again this
afternoon, with coverage expected to expand inward over the next
several hours. Given the expected scattered nature of developing
storms, have continued with VCTS wording at most locations for the
time being. The addition of TEMPO groups may be needed as the
afternoon moves forward.
Today`s southeasterly winds become light and variable after
sunset, developing a more easterly component by morning. As we`ve
seen the past couple of nights, some brief patchy fog is possible
with light winds and ample moisture remaining in place. While cigs
could also drop briefly below MVFR levels during this time,
conditions should largely remain VFR through the duration of the
current TAF period. SHRA/TSRA activity will pick back up tomorrow
morning along the coast, and have maintained VCSH/VCTS wording at
metro and coastal terminals as a result.
Cady
&&
.MARINE...
Light to moderate east and southeast winds can be expected
tonight. A more northeast to east wind direction is anticipated
on Monday as a wave moves westward across the area. Light to
moderate mainly east to southeast winds will return to the area
Monday night and Tuesday and will then persist for the remainder
of the week and on into the weekend. Shower and thunderstorm
coverage is expected to increase tonight and Monday. The potential
for more widespread showers and thunderstorms could increase
Thursday night through Saturday with the approach and passage of a
tropical wave. Increasing winds and waves are possible with this
system. 42
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 75 94 76 91 76 / 10 40 20 50 10
Houston (IAH) 77 90 78 91 78 / 20 60 40 70 10
Galveston (GLS) 81 88 81 88 83 / 40 60 60 60 30
