July 2020

[txbear]

edit: sorry for the double post.

[Cpv17]

How we feeling about the overnight hours with this little wave? As it’s been pointed out, most of the activity has died out for the evening. HRRR looks like it wants to bring in another round tomorrow morning (if I remember the Zulu time correctly).

Seems like the dry air/cap has been roughly between the beltway and 99, which hopefully will resolve as the wave pushes further west, perhaps?

We need to get on the east side of the low for widespread precip.

[sau27]

Past couple of HRRR runs show some training bands over the area tomorrow morning. It’s not showing crazy accumulation, but you never know when storms start to train in this type of airmass. Let’s see if it keeps up that trend or if it drops it.

[Kingwood36]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 2100&fh=43

[Cpv17]

Yeah the NAM has a pretty good storm headed our way but I wouldn’t use the NAM regarding the tropics.

[Ptarmigan]

Past couple of HRRR runs show some training bands over the area tomorrow morning. It’s not showing crazy accumulation, but you never know when storms start to train in this type of airmass. Let’s see if it keeps up that trend or if it drops it.

Tropical events are hard to predict, especially heavy rain and training.

[Cpv17]

The 0z GFS is right on the cusp of a depression Friday evening near Freeport, but it really doesn’t come in with much precip. You’d expect more from a strong tropical wave or depression/ts.

[Rip76]

The 0z GFS is right on the cusp of a depression Friday evening near Freeport, but it really doesn’t come in with much precip. You’d expect more from a strong tropical wave or depression/ts.

Must be some dry air issues.

[Cpv17]

The 0z GFS is right on the cusp of a depression Friday evening near Freeport, but it really doesn’t come in with much precip. You’d expect more from a strong tropical wave or depression/ts.

Must be some dry air issues.

Literally the GFS is only showing anywhere from like 0.50”-3” that’s it. The Euro on the other hand is showing double or triple that especially south of I-10.

[Rip76]

Lots of rain pushing in now. Tons of lightning as well.

[Kingwood36]

man the thunder is banging hard this morning

[Katdaddy]

2.24" so far this morning and not much sleep since 2:30AM with lots of lightning at close range followed by very loud thunder.

[Cromagnum]

Zapping and booming since about 3 AM on the south side. About to get another dose.

[don]

The radar looks nice this morning btw looking at last night's EURO it also now develops the Bahamas system into a depression or weak storm.

[TexasBreeze]

7AM 7/21/2020

A tropical wave is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over western Cuba, the northwestern Bahamas, southern Florida, and the adjacent Atlantic and Caribbean waters. Gradual development of this system is possible while it moves west-northwestward during the next few days. This system is expected to move over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico later today, the central Gulf on Wednesday, and the northwestern Gulf on Thursday and Friday. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system this afternoon, if necessary.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

[don]

Raised to 40%

[sau27]

I see the Euro goes with the classics west Texas strengthening tropical cyclone

[srainhoutx]

Tuesday morning weather briefing from Jeff:

90L:
Tropical wave and associated 1009mb area of low pressure over Jackson County, TX is resulting in a favorable low level convergence zone across SE TX this morning with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms mainly along and south of I-10. Given a saturated air column rainfall rates of 1-3 inches have been recorded over portions of Galveston and Brazoria Counties with this activity. Expect bands and waves of showers and thunderstorms to continue to move inland from the Gulf of Mexico through much of the morning and then a decrease in coverage this afternoon. Some heavy rainfall can be expected, but storm motions have been fast this morning. Main threat will be street flooding in any areas of sustained training or banding.

Tropical Wave (central Cuba)
A tropical wave axis located from southern FL southward to central Cuba is moving WNW with disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Radar data from Key West indicates a broad low or mid level feature within this wave axis. This wave will move into the SE Gulf of Mexico late today and then across the central Gulf on Wednesday and into the NW Gulf Thursday. Conditions across the central and NW Gulf of Mexico appear favorable for some weak development of this wave as it nears the TX coast on Friday. Model guidance has shown an increasing trend for the formation of a weak low level circulation to develop with this wave and move generally toward the middle TX coast on Friday.

Regardless of development, widespread showers and thunderstorms will begin to impact the upper TX coast as early as late Thursday evening and more likely into Friday and lasting into Saturday. Some of this rainfall will be heavy. Winds will back to the NE over the coastal waters on Thursday and increase into the 15-25kt range with seas building to 3-5 feet by late Thursday and likely higher on Friday. NE surface winds and increasing seas will result in increasing tides along the upper TX coast late Thursday into Friday. Changes to the forecast are likely for the end of the week depending on any additional development of this feature.

NHC currently gives the system a 40% chance of development.


99L:
A tropical wave with a well defined low to mid level circulation and scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms is located midway between Africa and the Caribbean Sea and is moving westward at 10-15mph. Conditions are favorable for this wave to develop over the next 2-3 days before the feature encounters unfavorable conditions by late this week and this weekend.

NHC currently gives this system a 60% chance of development.

[jasons2k]

Everything dissipates as it gets close to me. I had a few drops yesterday, but the line split upon arrival.

[txbear]

Everything dissipates as it gets close to me. I had a few drops yesterday, but the line split just as it got close to me.

That's no joke. Dry air mixed in basically along 59, or lack of lift? Happy with any rain that'll find its way to ground-level, but yeah interesting that it seems there's a lid out there shutting the door on further spread inland.