August 2020:
Para ensembles show a strong signal into the mid TX coast.
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tireman4
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000
FXUS64 KHGX 232158
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
458 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2020
.MARINE...
Expect a 3-5 FT swell associated with Hurricane Marco to begin
filling in across the waters later tonight and Monday...then
decrease Tuesday. Tropical Storm Laura is expected to move into
the Central Gulf of Mexico Tuesday, and is forecast to intensify
as it does. Look for another, quite possibly higher swell to move
in late Tuesday night or Wednesday and Small Craft Advisories
appear likely for parts of the Upper Texas Coast. Mariners are
urged to keep up with the latest forecasts regarding Laura. A few
changes to the track and intensity of Laura may still occur during
the next day or two. 24
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 422 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2020/
SHORT TERM [Rest of Today through Monday Afternoon]...
Shower and thunderstorm coverage today has been very spotty with
some areas developing activity over the northern portions and
southern portions. Major change to today`s forecast was increasing
the PoP coverage for our local area and add PoPs for the northern
counties. For the rest of the afternoon, additional development of
showers and thunderstorms, isolated to scattered in nature, is
expected and will dissipate this evening with the loss of diurnal
heating. Skies will gradually lift and scatter out tonight for
inland areas. Tonight into early Monday morning, passing showers and
thunderstorms will move across the Gulf waters and are expected to
occasionally affect the coastal locations and may even make it into
the southern counties. Activity will gradually increase and make it
further inland during the day Monday. At this time, most of the
rainfall is forecast to occur over the southern and eastern portions
of the CWA, but some showers may be able to move in elsewhere. Winds
will be generally in the 10-15 MPH range on Monday but some areas
over the NW quadrant could experience less and areas over the coasts
and SE quadrant could experience winds a bit higher. 24
LONG TERM [Tomorrow Night through Sunday]...
A very complicated and low confidence forecast for the long term.
Marco (or its remnants) works westward in a general direction
toward our area as we head on into Tuesday afternoon and night.
This feature should allow for some shower and thunderstorm bands
to develop mainly across parts of our waters, and activity should
expand/develop further inland. As for Laura, the latest forecast
from the National Hurricane Center keeps this system on a general
track toward the far southwest Louisiana area as a strong to
possibly major hurricane. Models continue to show some different
solutions, and local forecaster confidence is probably going to
remain on the low side until Laura finally works its way toward
western Cuba and on out into the Gulf of Mexico late Monday or
early Tuesday. For now, will follow the track forecast and show
increasing rain chances heading on into Wednesday night and
Thursday morning as Laura works inland. Obviously, depending on
Laura`s track, rainfall totals could end up being on the very low
side out west and on the very high side out east, and storm surge
and winds could become an issue.
Between Marco and Laura, the forecast has changed quite a bit over
the weekend, and would not be surprised if significant changes occur
once again.
Stay tuned!
42
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 72 96 74 96 75 / 10 10 10 20 20
Houston (IAH) 75 95 77 94 78 / 20 30 20 30 20
Galveston (GLS) 81 89 81 91 82 / 40 40 30 40 40
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
FXUS64 KHGX 232158
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
458 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2020
.MARINE...
Expect a 3-5 FT swell associated with Hurricane Marco to begin
filling in across the waters later tonight and Monday...then
decrease Tuesday. Tropical Storm Laura is expected to move into
the Central Gulf of Mexico Tuesday, and is forecast to intensify
as it does. Look for another, quite possibly higher swell to move
in late Tuesday night or Wednesday and Small Craft Advisories
appear likely for parts of the Upper Texas Coast. Mariners are
urged to keep up with the latest forecasts regarding Laura. A few
changes to the track and intensity of Laura may still occur during
the next day or two. 24
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 422 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2020/
SHORT TERM [Rest of Today through Monday Afternoon]...
Shower and thunderstorm coverage today has been very spotty with
some areas developing activity over the northern portions and
southern portions. Major change to today`s forecast was increasing
the PoP coverage for our local area and add PoPs for the northern
counties. For the rest of the afternoon, additional development of
showers and thunderstorms, isolated to scattered in nature, is
expected and will dissipate this evening with the loss of diurnal
heating. Skies will gradually lift and scatter out tonight for
inland areas. Tonight into early Monday morning, passing showers and
thunderstorms will move across the Gulf waters and are expected to
occasionally affect the coastal locations and may even make it into
the southern counties. Activity will gradually increase and make it
further inland during the day Monday. At this time, most of the
rainfall is forecast to occur over the southern and eastern portions
of the CWA, but some showers may be able to move in elsewhere. Winds
will be generally in the 10-15 MPH range on Monday but some areas
over the NW quadrant could experience less and areas over the coasts
and SE quadrant could experience winds a bit higher. 24
LONG TERM [Tomorrow Night through Sunday]...
A very complicated and low confidence forecast for the long term.
Marco (or its remnants) works westward in a general direction
toward our area as we head on into Tuesday afternoon and night.
This feature should allow for some shower and thunderstorm bands
to develop mainly across parts of our waters, and activity should
expand/develop further inland. As for Laura, the latest forecast
from the National Hurricane Center keeps this system on a general
track toward the far southwest Louisiana area as a strong to
possibly major hurricane. Models continue to show some different
solutions, and local forecaster confidence is probably going to
remain on the low side until Laura finally works its way toward
western Cuba and on out into the Gulf of Mexico late Monday or
early Tuesday. For now, will follow the track forecast and show
increasing rain chances heading on into Wednesday night and
Thursday morning as Laura works inland. Obviously, depending on
Laura`s track, rainfall totals could end up being on the very low
side out west and on the very high side out east, and storm surge
and winds could become an issue.
Between Marco and Laura, the forecast has changed quite a bit over
the weekend, and would not be surprised if significant changes occur
once again.
Stay tuned!
42
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 72 96 74 96 75 / 10 10 10 20 20
Houston (IAH) 75 95 77 94 78 / 20 30 20 30 20
Galveston (GLS) 81 89 81 91 82 / 40 40 30 40 40
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
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weatherguy425
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This is an ensemble set - best at showing trends, ranges in possibilities. No single location. Orange? Lowest pressure. This particular set has many scenarios, up and down the Texas coast.
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FWIW, HWRF should be more reliable now that we have recon data on Laura. HWRF-P follows a path similar to GEFS-Para.
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Kingwood36
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Travis herzog posted this on his fb page...anyone know what "the most sophisticated computer model" he is talking about?
This afternoon I got some inside information from my friend who works on the coding for NOAA's most sophisticated hurricane computer models. He says he is "extremely concerned about the major hurricane potential" of Laura shown by our best computer models
This afternoon I got some inside information from my friend who works on the coding for NOAA's most sophisticated hurricane computer models. He says he is "extremely concerned about the major hurricane potential" of Laura shown by our best computer models
Both hurricane models at 18z look similar to 12z.
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AtascocitaWX
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18z HMON into High Island.
18z HMON is further up the coast. Between High Island and the border.
The reason that Laura will turn north and east after landfall is because it will just be following the steering currents around the high pressure to its east.AtascocitaWX wrote: ↑Sun Aug 23, 2020 6:31 pmI think I read somewhere there is a low pressure out west that will pull Marco west.
HWRF is tracking a little further s as it begins to near Texas.
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weatherguy425
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For reference, here is the 18Z LAURA HMON & HWRF. Remember, this may (will) continue to swing a bit.
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Last edited by weatherguy425 on Sun Aug 23, 2020 6:52 pm, edited 1 time in total.
There really seems to be a strong consensus near High Island right now.
HWRF begins to quickly gain lat as it nears the coast. Should be somewhere between High Island and Holly Beach.
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weatherguy425
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