August 2020:

[weatherguy425]

18Z GEFSV2 Tracks

[srainhoutx]

Levi makes good points regarding the strength of the Bermuda Ridge. If in fact it is stronger and further East than currently modeled, that does not bode well for the Texas Coast. Unfortunately it looks like the G-IV synoptic mission wrapping up may have missed sampling due to the pre scheduled mission plan. Regardless, we'll have that data for the 00Z suite of models.

[jabcwb2]

Levi makes good points regarding the strength of the Bermuda Ridge. If in fact it is stronger and further East than currently modeled, that does not bode well for the Texas Coast. Unfortunately it looks like the G-IV synoptic mission wrapping up may have missed sampling due to the pre scheduled mission plan. Regardless, we'll have that data for the 00Z suite of models.

Gosh, what does that mean for us lurkers?

thank you for all you do!

[weatherguy425]

Some early 00z track guidance. While just a nudge west, we don’t have too much room to play with here.

[txbear]

I have a sneaking suspicion that the ensembles are on to something with the strength of the ridge, and Laura's landfall. The Euro and GFS ensembles seem to be in decent agreement that she will end up at least on the left side of the current cone. At least to my amateur eyes. It's really baffling that we're this close to landfall, and we're still going back and forth on which model is showing this or that over such a large margin of error, relatively speaking.

Watching for the turn is going to be something else.

[srainhoutx]

Levi makes good points regarding the strength of the Bermuda Ridge. If in fact it is stronger and further East than currently modeled, that does not bode well for the Texas Coast. Unfortunately it looks like the G-IV synoptic mission wrapping up may have missed sampling due to the pre scheduled mission plan. Regardless, we'll have that data for the 00Z suite of models.

Gosh, what does that mean for us lurkers?

thank you for all you do!

We will see benefits of the data from the high altitude mission that sampled the atmosphere around 45000 ft. That data will assist in track and intensity potential. We will just have to wait and see about the big old Bermuda Ridge. It's currently building W across the Florida Peninsula.

[Rip76]

Ok, Just a question.
If I were to leave (Friendswood), it would be with me and my son. Sadly do to my line of work, I could not leave here until about 12 noon tomorrow.

We have a place to stay on Padre Island with my cousin.

My question is, if i wanted to head out from Friendswood, down 35 and come up on 59, would noon be too late?

TIA

[jabcwb2]

So, does this mean a possible bigger impact for Harris County and if so, how far out? To Conroe and Tomball? I apologize in advance for bugging such a busy time for you.

[jabcwb2]

So, does this mean a possible bigger impact for Harris County and if so, how far out? To Conroe, Montgomery County and Tomball? I apologize in advance for bugging such a busy time for you.

[srainhoutx]

Ok, Just a question.
If I were to leave (Friendswood), it would be with me and my son. Sadly do to my line of work, I could not leave here until about 12 noon tomorrow.

We have a place to stay on Padre Island with my cousin.

My question is, if i wanted to head out from Friendswood, down 35 and come up on 59, would noon be too late?

TIA

Leaving tomorrow heading to S Padre should be just fine!

[Tx2005]

Well let’s see what the 0z models show.,,,

I don’t have a great feeling.

[Kingwood36]

I think im going to stick it out here in freeport...i think will be ok..hopefully lol

[weatherguy425]

18Z EPS - Still favors Texas.

[Rip76]

[/quote]
Leaving tomorrow heading to S Padre should be just fine!
[/quote]

On 35?

[vci_guy2003]

Tx2005- not a good feeling meaning it's inching closer to Houston?

[Tx2005]

Tx2005- not a good feeling meaning it's inching closer to Houston?

I’m not a pro or anything like that, just that it seems like there are some variables (the ensembles, talk about the ridge being weaker on the model runs etc..) that pro Mets on here and Twitter talk about that make me a little concerned that Houston may be more at risk.

The back and forth is killing me.

[Stormlover2020]

Srain, u think nhc nudges west?

[snowman65]

If anyone here is interested, we are selling our house in beautiful Orange, Tx....will pay for closing but must close by Wednesday...

[Kingwood36]

Srain, u think nhc nudges west?

I think if they do they will wait till tomorrow

[Kingwood36]

If anyone here is interested, we are selling our house in beautiful Orange, Tx....will pay for closing but must close by Wednesday...

does it come with flood insurance