August 2020:

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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tireman4
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000
FXUS64 KHGX 282035
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
335 PM CDT Fri Aug 28 2020


.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Tomorrow]...

A trough of low pressure persists across SE TX and this feature
coupled with high PW air has allowed for scattered showers and
thunderstorms to develop this afternoon. The GFS and HRRR continue
to be aggressive with shra/tsra this afternoon into the evening
while other models are more benign. The ingredients are in place so
will maintain chance PoPs through 01z and keep slt chance going over
the W-NW zones through 03z. Activity should begin to wane once
heating ends after sunset. Speaking of heat, 850 mb temps were very
warm and cloud cover/winds last night blunted any cooling and the
warm start has allowed temperature to reach the upper 90s by 1 PM.
Dew points are not mixing out and the heat/humidity combo is
producing oppressive and dangerous heat index values. Galveston
reached a heat index value of 110 degrees by 10 AM and 114 degrees
at 2 PM. Sugar Land reached a HI of 112 degrees by 2 PM and Angleton
reached 110. Will maintain the Heat Advisory through 10 PM but the
area should fall below criteria by around 800 PM.

There should be some clearing by mid evening but more clouds will
develop prior to sunrise and this coupled with winds not fully
decoupling will yield another night of very warm temperatures. It
will probably only cool into the upper 70`s inland and lower/mid 80s
toward the coast.

On Saturday, another warm start to the day and very warm
temperatures aloft will translate to another day with oppressive
heat. Have issued a Heat Advisory for Saturday as conditions look
rather similar to today with dew points struggling to mix out
coupled with warm daytime temperatures. Max Heat Index values will
again exceed 108 degrees by late morning at the coast and by early
afternoon further inland. Max Heat Index will range from 105 to 113
degrees. PW values drop considerably but briefly peak near 2.00
inches on Saturday afternoon. Could get a few showers and storms
late but most of the area will probably remain dry. 43


.LONG TERM [Tomorrow Night Through Friday]...

The forecast trend through the remainder of the weekend and into
the beginning of next week will continue to be characterized by
hot and humid conditions with potentially dangerous heat indices
along with scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms. Upper
ridge will continue to build into the central CONUS by late
Saturday, while broad surface high pressure across the Gulf and
low pressures over the Rockies will promote low-level moisture
advection. Global models continue to indicate a surge of higher
(1.75-2.0+ in) PWs by Sunday evening, although ECMWF solution is
more aggressive than other sources. Regardless, values should
approach 90th percentile of observed climatology for nearby
sounding sites, particularly surrounding Galveston Bay. With
daytime highs expected to approach forecast sounding convective
temps across the area, conditions will remain favorable for the
development of diurnal showers and thunderstorms into the early
part of the week. With the surge of moisture expected to peak on
Monday, have included 40-50% PoPs. Daily activity should diminish
upon the loss of daytime heating.

We`re likely going to need to continue the Heat Advisories through
the weekend, with daytime highs not expected to budge from the mid
to upper 90s and maximum heat indicies remaining around 110
through Monday. Low temperatures, particularly along the coast,
will not exceed the low to mid 80s, near daily record values.
Given that these elevated nighttime low temperatures can
exacerbate heat stress experienced during the day, it will remain
imperative to take heat precautions in the coming days.

ECMWF/GFS have come into better agreement regarding the departure
of the prevailing ridge axis and approach of an upper trough as we
head into the middle of next week with GFS now favoring the
slower EC solution. A cold front extending from the associated
surface cyclone remains on track to approach the CWA on late
Tuesday/early Wednesday. Both solutions now show the surface
boundary pushing into the northern counties, though a prolonged
wind shift/temperature drop is not anticipated. Showers and
thunderstorms associated with the approaching front could impact
areas north of I-10 through Thursday. Have maintained slight-
chance PoPs for now given current uncertainty.

Cady

&&

.AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]...

Scattered showers and storms along the coast will expand inland
with heating. Will carry a VCTS for inland TAF sites through the
aftn. Conditions will settle down with the loss of heating after
sunset. NAM fcst soundings show some potential for MVFR cigs after
09z. Not terribly confident and went with scattered decks for now.
Looks considerably drier on Saturday with only isolated PoPs in
the afternoon but probabilities look too low to mention in TAFs.
Moderate SSW winds will become south and decrease later tonight
and should be lighter on Saturday. 43

&&

.MARINE...

Falling pressures in the lee of the Rockies and building surface
high pressure over the eastern Gulf of Mexico will allow for a
moderate onshore flow tonight. The flow will slacken early Saturday
and veer to the SW as low pressure scoots across the southern
plains. Winds will back to the SE as a weak sea breeze moves inland.
The pressure gradient tightens again Saturday night into Sunday with
onshore winds strengthening. A moderate to occasionally light
onshore flow will persist through Wednesday with a lighter winds
expected Thu/Fri as weak high pressure settles over the northern
Gulf of Mexico.

Re-issued a Coastal Flood Advisory for the bay facing shores of the
Bolivar peninsula. Water was reported on a few roads in Crystal
Beach. Overall, tides have returned to within a 1/2 foot of normal
values along the coast. 43

&&

.CLIMATE...

The day is not complete yet so this discussion is preliminary and
subject to change but the low temperature at GLS this morning was
only 86 degrees and this would tie for the all time warmest
overnight low temperature for this site (08/12/2020 and others). The
city of Houston recorded a low temperature of 83 degrees and this
would also tie for the warmest overnight low temperature for this
location (6/23/2019 and others). Late afternoon storms could bring
some rain cooled air so the low temps could change before the end of
the day. 43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 77 101 77 100 79 / 20 10 0 10 0
Houston (IAH) 80 98 79 97 80 / 20 10 0 30 10
Galveston (GLS) 84 93 83 93 84 / 10 20 20 40 20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...Heat Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for the following
zones: Austin...Brazoria
Islands...Brazos...Burleson...Chambers...Coastal
Brazoria...Coastal Galveston...Coastal Harris...Coastal
Jackson...Coastal Matagorda...Colorado...Fort
Bend...Galveston Island and Bolivar
Peninsula...Grimes...Houston...Inland Brazoria...Inland
Galveston...Inland Harris...Inland Jackson...Inland
Matagorda...Madison...Matagorda
Islands...Montgomery...Northern Liberty...Polk...San
Jacinto...Southern
Liberty...Trinity...Walker...Waller...Washington...Wharton.

Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 9 PM CDT Saturday for the following
zones: Austin...Brazoria
Islands...Brazos...Burleson...Chambers...Coastal
Brazoria...Coastal Galveston...Coastal Harris...Coastal
Jackson...Coastal Matagorda...Colorado...Fort
Bend...Galveston Island and Bolivar
Peninsula...Grimes...Houston...Inland Brazoria...Inland
Galveston...Inland Harris...Inland Jackson...Inland
Matagorda...Madison...Matagorda
Islands...Montgomery...Northern Liberty...Polk...San
Jacinto...Southern
Liberty...Trinity...Walker...Waller...Washington...Wharton.

Coastal Flood Advisory until midnight CDT tonight for the
following zones: Galveston Island and Bolivar Peninsula.

GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 4 PM CDT this
afternoon for the following zones: Coastal waters from
Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal
waters from High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Waters
from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60
NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60
NM.


&&

$$

SHORT TERM...43
LONG TERM...Cady
AVIATION...43
MARINE...43
jabcwb2
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Getting absolutely soaked in Tomball with rain and spinning winds. Looks so prett!!!
Cromagnum
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Teased all day. Storms this morning missed south, then blew up just east. This evening everything to the north and passed south. Havent had a meaningful rain n weeks besides a quick quarter inch a couple weeks ago.
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jasons2k
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I got about 2 inches of rain today in a surprise storm. I needed it badly!
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tireman4
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I got nuffin...LOL
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tireman4
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000
FXUS64 KHGX 282354
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
654 PM CDT Fri Aug 28 2020

.AVIATION [00Z TAF Issuance]...

Some evening showers and thunderstorms scattered across the inland
flying areas are dissipating out now. By 01-02z, thunderstorms
activity may transition to some showers for a bit, but VFR
conditions will return across the TAF sites by 02z. Tonight may
bring in some lower ceilings but mostly looking borderline and
drier. Tomorrow will be VFR through the day with some chances of
afternoon convection but much lower chances than today. 35

&&

.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Tomorrow]...

A trough of low pressure persists across SE TX and this feature
coupled with high PW air has allowed for scattered showers and
thunderstorms to develop this afternoon. The GFS and HRRR continue
to be aggressive with shra/tsra this afternoon into the evening
while other models are more benign. The ingredients are in place so
will maintain chance PoPs through 01z and keep slt chance going over
the W-NW zones through 03z. Activity should begin to wane once
heating ends after sunset. Speaking of heat, 850 mb temps were very
warm and cloud cover/winds last night blunted any cooling and the
warm start has allowed temperature to reach the upper 90s by 1 PM.
Dew points are not mixing out and the heat/humidity combo is
producing oppressive and dangerous heat index values. Galveston
reached a heat index value of 110 degrees by 10 AM and 114 degrees
at 2 PM. Sugar Land reached a HI of 112 degrees by 2 PM and Angleton
reached 110. Will maintain the Heat Advisory through 10 PM but the
area should fall below criteria by around 800 PM.

There should be some clearing by mid evening but more clouds will
develop prior to sunrise and this coupled with winds not fully
decoupling will yield another night of very warm temperatures. It
will probably only cool into the upper 70`s inland and lower/mid 80s
toward the coast.

On Saturday, another warm start to the day and very warm
temperatures aloft will translate to another day with oppressive
heat. Have issued a Heat Advisory for Saturday as conditions look
rather similar to today with dew points struggling to mix out
coupled with warm daytime temperatures. Max Heat Index values will
again exceed 108 degrees by late morning at the coast and by early
afternoon further inland. Max Heat Index will range from 105 to 113
degrees. PW values drop considerably but briefly peak near 2.00
inches on Saturday afternoon. Could get a few showers and storms
late but most of the area will probably remain dry. 43


.LONG TERM [Tomorrow Night Through Friday]...

The forecast trend through the remainder of the weekend and into
the beginning of next week will continue to be characterized by
hot and humid conditions with potentially dangerous heat indices
along with scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms. Upper
ridge will continue to build into the central CONUS by late
Saturday, while broad surface high pressure across the Gulf and
low pressures over the Rockies will promote low-level moisture
advection. Global models continue to indicate a surge of higher
(1.75-2.0+ in) PWs by Sunday evening, although ECMWF solution is
more aggressive than other sources. Regardless, values should
approach 90th percentile of observed climatology for nearby
sounding sites, particularly surrounding Galveston Bay. With
daytime highs expected to approach forecast sounding convective
temps across the area, conditions will remain favorable for the
development of diurnal showers and thunderstorms into the early
part of the week. With the surge of moisture expected to peak on
Monday, have included 40-50% PoPs. Daily activity should diminish
upon the loss of daytime heating.

We`re likely going to need to continue the Heat Advisories through
the weekend, with daytime highs not expected to budge from the mid
to upper 90s and maximum heat indicies remaining around 110
through Monday. Low temperatures, particularly along the coast,
will not exceed the low to mid 80s, near daily record values.
Given that these elevated nighttime low temperatures can
exacerbate heat stress experienced during the day, it will remain
imperative to take heat precautions in the coming days.

ECMWF/GFS have come into better agreement regarding the departure
of the prevailing ridge axis and approach of an upper trough as we
head into the middle of next week with GFS now favoring the
slower EC solution. A cold front extending from the associated
surface cyclone remains on track to approach the CWA on late
Tuesday/early Wednesday. Both solutions now show the surface
boundary pushing into the northern counties, though a prolonged
wind shift/temperature drop is not anticipated. Showers and
thunderstorms associated with the approaching front could impact
areas north of I-10 through Thursday. Have maintained slight-
chance PoPs for now given current uncertainty.

Cady


.MARINE...

Falling pressures in the lee of the Rockies and building surface
high pressure over the eastern Gulf of Mexico will allow for a
moderate onshore flow tonight. The flow will slacken early Saturday
and veer to the SW as low pressure scoots across the southern
plains. Winds will back to the SE as a weak sea breeze moves inland.
The pressure gradient tightens again Saturday night into Sunday with
onshore winds strengthening. A moderate to occasionally light
onshore flow will persist through Wednesday with a lighter winds
expected Thu/Fri as weak high pressure settles over the northern
Gulf of Mexico.

Re-issued a Coastal Flood Advisory for the bay facing shores of the
Bolivar peninsula. Water was reported on a few roads in Crystal
Beach. Overall, tides have returned to within a 1/2 foot of normal
values along the coast. 43


.CLIMATE...

The day is not complete yet so this discussion is preliminary and
subject to change but the low temperature at GLS this morning was
only 86 degrees and this would tie for the all time warmest
overnight low temperature for this site (08/12/2020 and others). The
city of Houston recorded a low temperature of 83 degrees and this
would also tie for the warmest overnight low temperature for this
location (6/23/2019 and others). Late afternoon storms could bring
some rain cooled air so the low temps could change before the end of
the day. 43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 77 101 77 100 79 / 20 10 0 10 0
Houston (IAH) 80 98 79 97 80 / 20 10 0 30 10
Galveston (GLS) 84 93 83 93 84 / 10 20 20 40 20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...Heat Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for the following
zones: Austin...Brazoria
Islands...Brazos...Burleson...Chambers...Coastal
Brazoria...Coastal Galveston...Coastal Harris...Coastal
Jackson...Coastal Matagorda...Colorado...Fort
Bend...Galveston Island and Bolivar
Peninsula...Grimes...Houston...Inland Brazoria...Inland
Galveston...Inland Harris...Inland Jackson...Inland
Matagorda...Madison...Matagorda
Islands...Montgomery...Northern Liberty...Polk...San
Jacinto...Southern
Liberty...Trinity...Walker...Waller...Washington...Wharton.

Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 9 PM CDT Saturday for the following
zones: Austin...Brazoria
Islands...Brazos...Burleson...Chambers...Coastal
Brazoria...Coastal Galveston...Coastal Harris...Coastal
Jackson...Coastal Matagorda...Colorado...Fort
Bend...Galveston Island and Bolivar
Peninsula...Grimes...Houston...Inland Brazoria...Inland
Galveston...Inland Harris...Inland Jackson...Inland
Matagorda...Madison...Matagorda
Islands...Montgomery...Northern Liberty...Polk...San
Jacinto...Southern
Liberty...Trinity...Walker...Waller...Washington...Wharton.

Coastal Flood Advisory until midnight CDT tonight for the
following zones: Galveston Island and Bolivar Peninsula.

GM...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...43
LONG TERM...Cady
AVIATION...35
MARINE...43
Cpv17
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I got nothing here. Haven’t had anything in a month now.
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tireman4
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000
FXUS64 KHGX 291210
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
710 AM CDT Sat Aug 29 2020

.AVIATION [12Z TAF ISSUANCE]...

Areas of patchy fog has develop across parts of the northern
counties early this morning, resulting in periods of MVFR-IFR
conditions. Fog is expected to lift and clear out by 15Z. S winds
will increase after 15Z to around 5-10 KTS and turn a little more
S-SE in the afternoon. Isolated to scattered showers may develop
along the local waters and coastal sectors this morning,
expanding northward into the central sectors in the afternoon.
MaxT will be in the mid 90s to low 100s and heat indicies look to
be around 108-114 deg F today. Activity is to dissipate in the
evening, and skies will lift and clear out tonight. Surge of
moisture along the waters may lead to periods of passing SH/TS and
could affect GLS/LBX from time to time early Sunday morning.
Activity is then expected to move northward and further inland
during the rest of the morning and afternoon hours. 24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 613 AM CDT Sat Aug 29 2020/

SHORT TERM [Today through Sunday Afternoon]...

Chance for shower and thunderstorm development will be on the rise
this weekend, as a mid to upper level trough remains over LA region
and combines will a moist and unstable airmass along the surface.
Strong thunderstorms will be capable of producing frequent
lightning, gusty winds, and brief periods of heavy downpours.

For today, onshore flow transporting tropical moisture moving from
the Gulf will bump up the PWs into the 1.7 to 2.1 inch range. Expect
a few showers across the local Gulf waters to move into the coastal
regions from time to time early this morning. As the moisture
trickles north, showers and thunderstorms will transition into the
southern portions of the CWA and then expand a bit further into the
central portions by the afternoon hours. The highest PWs look to be
residing along the eastern half of the CWA...and this is where the
highest PoPs are currently. The moisture combined with temperatures
in the mid 90s to low 100s will lead to another day with heat
indicies of around 108-114 deg F. A Heat Advisory will be in effect
from 10 AM CDT to 9 PM CDT today. It is HIGHLY recommended to
practice Heat Safety if you plan to spend time in the outdoors
and/or in areas with poor ventilation. Dont forget your pets!
Surface temperatures could be well above these temperatures on
their tender paws.

Rain chances decrease during the evening and night hours as diurnal
heating decreases...but an even more impressive surge of tropical
moisture will make its way into the Gulf waters early Sunday
morning. This surge will slowly make its way across the coastal
locations during the morning hours and further northward during the
afternoon and will possibly tap into SB and MU CAPE of a little over
3,000 J/kg at around 21Z. Moreover, the upper level trough scoots a
bit further into the local area during the morning hours. Thus,
coverage of showers and thunderstorms is expected to be higher on
Sunday, and have thus added a little more PoPs for the day.
24

LONG TERM [Sunday Night Through Saturday]...
The deeper tropical moisture will spread further inland Sunday
night through Monday and 2-2.3" PW will be possible Monday so
expecting early morning showers in the Gulf and probably into the
coastal counties before sunrise...then expanding inland in the
morning and afternoon hours. Low level flow is stronger on Monday
and the seabreeze should penetrate well inland. Storms will again
be capable of brief heavy downpours, frequent lightning and gusty
winds. Tuesday should have a little less coverage as an upper
trough drops through the southern plains and the column warms and
dries out. The upper trough sets the stage for a cold front
Wednesday to push through North Texas and start to slow as it
nears SETX...greater rain chances should be over the NW portions
of the area with the GFS/ECMWF showing some nice bullseyes of
precipitation in the area or just northwest of the area. The front
or outflow looks to push south into the area Thursday night/Friday
and rain chances look greater as upper troughing rotates by to the
northeast. Having been burned on this a few times will be keeping
pops less than 50 percent even though some of the guidance is
higher.

Temperatures should start the period in the hot range and cool
down somewhat Tuesday into Wednesday with an increase in high
clouds along with the chance for showers and thunderstorms to
bring some relief as well. Temperatures could be below climo by
Friday or Saturday!
45

MARINE...

High pressure over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and low pressure in
the lee of the Rockies will maintain a moderate onshore flow through
the weekend. Moreover, shower and thunderstorm chances will be on
the rise this weekend, particularly Sunday, as deep tropical
moisture moves across the local Gulf waters. Moderate to
occasionally strong onshore winds is expected early next week
through mid week and will elevate seas to around 4-6 FT...Caution
Flags will likely be needed. Winds relax and seas decrease mid week
into the upcoming weekend. 24

CLIMATE...
Record high minimum temperature was set yesterday at
Galveston...85 degrees surpassing the 84 degree 1951 record.

Although it was hot across the area with CLL hitting the 103 mark
2011 was a scorcher on this date so the temperatures fell well
short of the records.

Today the record high minimum at Galveston in 84 degrees (1983)
may be in jeopardy.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 103 77 102 79 99 / 10 10 10 0 30
Houston (IAH) 99 80 97 81 95 / 30 20 30 10 40
Galveston (GLS) 93 83 94 84 92 / 30 30 40 20 20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 9 PM CDT this evening
for the following zones: Austin...Brazoria Islands...
Brazos...Burleson...Chambers...Coastal Brazoria...Coastal
Galveston...Coastal Harris...Coastal Jackson...Coastal
Matagorda...Colorado...Fort Bend...Galveston Island and
Bolivar Peninsula...Grimes...Houston...Inland Brazoria...
Inland Galveston...Inland Harris...Inland Jackson...Inland
Matagorda...Madison...Matagorda Islands...Montgomery...
Northern Liberty...Polk...San Jacinto...Southern Liberty...
Trinity...Walker...Waller...Washington...Wharton.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$
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DoctorMu
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jasons2k wrote: Fri Aug 28, 2020 9:14 pm I got about 2 inches of rain today in a surprise storm. I needed it badly!
Got Lucy and footballed here. At least temperatures dropped 25 degrees from 103°F to 78°F! Today looks brutal.
Cromagnum
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Hot is an understatement today
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Katdaddy
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Hoping one of the these tropical cumulus clouds give me yard a shower
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tireman4
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At 73 degrees, with a 97 degree temperature, that dewpoint is brutal at IAH

00
FXUS64 KHGX 291737
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1237 PM CDT Sat Aug 29 2020

.AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]...

Latest radar imagery showing the development of scattered
SHRA/TSRA along the coast, with high-resolution forecast guidance
indicating that this activity should expand further inland over
the next couple of hours. Scattered storms may approach coastal
and Houston metro terminals through approximately 00Z, though
conditions should remain within VFR thresholds aside from any
brief visibility reductions from these storms. Look for
S-SW winds of around 10 knots to continue through the afternoon,
becoming light and variable overnight. Could once again see a
drop to MVFR to IFR cigs late this evening into the early parts of
next morning, mainly at locations north of I-10. Another round of
scattered convection driven by increasing low-level moisture
should develop along the coast tomorrow morning and push inland
during the day.

Cady

&&
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tireman4
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000
FXUS64 KHGX 292042
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
342 PM CDT Sat Aug 29 2020

.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Sunday Night]...

A few isolated showers and thunderstorms showing up on radar this
afternoon, although coverage thus far has remained minimal.
Despite this, sufficient instability (3000+ J/kg SBCAPE) and
ample low-level moisture should prove favorable for the formation
of some additional storms over the next couple of hours before
activity diminishes upon the loss of daytime heating. Development
should be limited to airmass thunderstorms given the lack of
effective wind shear.

Hot and humid conditions otherwise remain the main weather story
through the remainder of the weekend. Look for similar conditions
on Sunday to what has been observed thus far today, with onshore
flow continuing to provide a steady supply of Gulf moisture to the
area. This should keep heat index values in the hazardous range,
potentially reaching as high as the low 110s as we`ve seen over
the past couple of days. This may require another Heat Advisory
tomorrow, although that decision will come with the overnight
forecast package. Global models continue to indicate a stronger
surge of moisture beginning tomorrow, with both the NAM & GFS
solutions indicating a rise in PW values above 2.0 in across the
southern half of the CWA with the greatest moisture availability
around Galveston Bay. Have maintained PoPs in the 30-40% range
with the highest numbers remaining in the southeastern portion of
the area. Development is likely to mirror the activity of the past
few days, with showers and storms developing offshore in the
morning and pushing inland throughout the day.

For those looking to enjoy some time on the beach this weekend,
the risk for strong rip currents will continue given the
persistent onshore flow. If you do enter the water, remember to
only do so near a trained lifeguard and know the steps to take
should you become caught in a rip current.

Cady

.LONG TERM [Monday Through Saturday]...

Expect shortwave to travel south across the Rockies and carve out a
trof across central parts of the country by midweek. Model solutions
vary somewhat on its evolution beyond then...whether a part of the
trof separates and travels under the western ridge, and/or weakens
and travels north and east of the ridge stretching from the Atlantic
across the northern Gulf Coast. Probably won`t impact wx all that
much locally regardless considering lack of support for a continued
southward push into the area with its associated frontal boundary.
Better rain chances look to be to our north closer to the weakening
front. Otherwise, typical late Aug wx anticipated across the area
with iso/sct diurnally driven precip this week. 47

&&

.AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]...

Latest radar imagery showing the development of scattered
SHRA/TSRA along the coast, with high-resolution forecast guidance
indicating that this activity should expand further inland over
the next couple of hours. Scattered storms may approach coastal
and Houston metro terminals through approximately 00Z, though
conditions should remain within VFR thresholds aside from any
brief visibility reductions from these storms. Look for
S-SW winds of around 10 knots to continue through the afternoon,
becoming light and variable overnight. Could once again see a
drop to MVFR to IFR cigs late this evening into the early parts of
next morning, mainly at locations north of I-10. Another round of
scattered convection driven by increasing low-level moisture
should develop along the coast tomorrow morning and push inland
during the day.

Cady

&&

.MARINE...

Look for a tightening pressure gradient has we head into the early-
mid parts of next week. Expect southerly winds to increase and
building seas as this occurs. May need some caution flags at times.
Speeds should be highest at night in the Gulf and during the day in
the bays. Winds/seas should then be on a downward trend during the
second half of the work week as a weak front sags into Texas and
becomes diffuse. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 78 100 79 98 80 / 0 10 0 20 10
Houston (IAH) 79 97 81 95 81 / 10 30 10 30 10
Galveston (GLS) 83 93 85 92 84 / 30 40 20 20 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for the following
zones: Austin...Brazoria
Islands...Brazos...Burleson...Chambers...Coastal
Brazoria...Coastal Galveston...Coastal Harris...Coastal
Jackson...Coastal Matagorda...Colorado...Fort
Bend...Galveston Island and Bolivar
Peninsula...Grimes...Houston...Inland Brazoria...Inland
Galveston...Inland Harris...Inland Jackson...Inland
Matagorda...Madison...Matagorda
Islands...Montgomery...Northern Liberty...Polk...San
Jacinto...Southern
Liberty...Trinity...Walker...Waller...Washington...Wharton.

High Rip Current Risk until 9 PM CDT this evening for the
following zones: Brazoria Islands...Galveston Island and
Bolivar Peninsula...Matagorda Islands.

GM...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cady
LONG TERM...47
AVIATION...Cady
MARINE...47
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DoctorMu
Posts: 5648
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Location: College Station
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Yep - another 110°F heat index day around here.
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tireman4
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Location: Humble, Texas
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000
FXUS64 KHGX 292338
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
638 PM CDT Sat Aug 29 2020

.AVIATION [00Z TAF Issuance]...

Some evening showers and thunderstorms in the area but not in the
TAF sites. Most are in a broken line from the Hunters Creek area to
the southwest around El Campo and continuing to move northeasterly
and dissipate as the sunsets. After that, VFR conditions prevail
until the early morning hours with some MVFR ceilings through mid
morning. By 15z the lower stratus will scatter out with the heating
and some fair weather cu will prevail through the day. Afternoon and
evening showers and coastal thunderstorms are possible tomorrow as
well. Most will be short lived and move out by sunset. 35

&&

.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Sunday Night]...

A few isolated showers and thunderstorms showing up on radar this
afternoon, although coverage thus far has remained minimal.
Despite this, sufficient instability (3000+ J/kg SBCAPE) and
ample low-level moisture should prove favorable for the formation
of some additional storms over the next couple of hours before
activity diminishes upon the loss of daytime heating. Development
should be limited to airmass thunderstorms given the lack of
effective wind shear.

Hot and humid conditions otherwise remain the main weather story
through the remainder of the weekend. Look for similar conditions
on Sunday to what has been observed thus far today, with onshore
flow continuing to provide a steady supply of Gulf moisture to the
area. This should keep heat index values in the hazardous range,
potentially reaching as high as the low 110s as we`ve seen over
the past couple of days. This may require another Heat Advisory
tomorrow, although that decision will come with the overnight
forecast package. Global models continue to indicate a stronger
surge of moisture beginning tomorrow, with both the NAM & GFS
solutions indicating a rise in PW values above 2.0 in across the
southern half of the CWA with the greatest moisture availability
around Galveston Bay. Have maintained PoPs in the 30-40% range
with the highest numbers remaining in the southeastern portion of
the area. Development is likely to mirror the activity of the past
few days, with showers and storms developing offshore in the
morning and pushing inland throughout the day.

For those looking to enjoy some time on the beach this weekend,
the risk for strong rip currents will continue given the
persistent onshore flow. If you do enter the water, remember to
only do so near a trained lifeguard and know the steps to take
should you become caught in a rip current.

Cady


.LONG TERM [Monday Through Saturday]...

Expect shortwave to travel south across the Rockies and carve out a
trof across central parts of the country by midweek. Model solutions
vary somewhat on its evolution beyond then...whether a part of the
trof separates and travels under the western ridge, and/or weakens
and travels north and east of the ridge stretching from the Atlantic
across the northern Gulf Coast. Probably won`t impact wx all that
much locally regardless considering lack of support for a continued
southward push into the area with its associated frontal boundary.
Better rain chances look to be to our north closer to the weakening
front. Otherwise, typical late Aug wx anticipated across the area
with iso/sct diurnally driven precip this week. 47


.MARINE...

Look for a tightening pressure gradient has we head into the early-
mid parts of next week. Expect southerly winds to increase and
building seas as this occurs. May need some caution flags at times.
Speeds should be highest at night in the Gulf and during the day in
the bays. Winds/seas should then be on a downward trend during the
second half of the work week as a weak front sags into Texas and
becomes diffuse. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 78 100 79 98 80 / 0 10 0 20 10
Houston (IAH) 79 97 81 95 81 / 10 30 10 30 10
Galveston (GLS) 83 93 85 92 84 / 30 40 20 20 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for the following
zones: Austin...Brazoria
Islands...Brazos...Burleson...Chambers...Coastal
Brazoria...Coastal Galveston...Coastal Harris...Coastal
Jackson...Coastal Matagorda...Colorado...Fort
Bend...Galveston Island and Bolivar
Peninsula...Grimes...Houston...Inland Brazoria...Inland
Galveston...Inland Harris...Inland Jackson...Inland
Matagorda...Madison...Matagorda
Islands...Montgomery...Northern Liberty...Polk...San
Jacinto...Southern
Liberty...Trinity...Walker...Waller...Washington...Wharton.

High Rip Current Risk until 9 PM CDT this evening for the
following zones: Brazoria Islands...Galveston Island and
Bolivar Peninsula...Matagorda Islands.

GM...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cady
LONG TERM...47
AVIATION...35
MARINE...47
Pas_Bon
Posts: 288
Joined: Tue Sep 11, 2018 7:58 am
Location: League City, TX
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Am I seeing things? Am I really seeing forecast highs in the 80’s over the next 10 days ? :)
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tireman4
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Location: Humble, Texas
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00
FXUS64 KHGX 301050
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
550 AM CDT Sun Aug 30 2020

.SHORT TERM [Today through Monday Afternoon]...

An upper level trough will remain over the LA region this morning
and gradually shift east during the day. Surface analysis shows
that the higher moisture surge that was expected for today does
not make it into the local area until late tonight and Monday.
Some moisture does move into the local waters this morning from
the Gulf, but it is expected to only expand subtly into the
southern and central portions of SE Texas this afternoon and
evening. With the presence of upper level trough aloft, we will
likely see activity starting up along the waters and coastal
regions this morning. Once the seabreeze develops, we can expect
showers and thunderstorms to build further inland during the late
morning and afternoon hours. This activity will dissipate during
the evening and early night hours. The stronger surge of moisture
is expected to be across the southern half of the CWA by early
Monday morning and across most of local area by mid morning.
Models show PWs of around 1.8 to 2.2 inches across SE Texas by
around 10 AM CDT and with an unstable air mass in place, it will
not take much for showers to develop across portions of local area
Monday morning and Monday afternoon.

HEAT [TODAY]:

High temperatures today will likely reach the mid 90s to low 100s
this afternoon. Portions of SE Texas will be able to obtain heat
indicies in the 108-114 degrees F range once again today. A Heat
Advisory has been issued and will be in effect from 10 AM CDT to 8
PM CDT today. It is HIGHLY recommended to practice Heat Safety if
you plan to spend time in the outdoors and/or in areas with poor
ventilation. Dont forget your pets! Surface temperatures could be
well above these temperatures on their tender paws.

24

&&

.LONG TERM...[Monday Night through Saturday]
The surge of deeper tropical moisture (though not as rich as
previously indicated by model runs 2-4 days ago) should be over the
northern counties and Monday night as a shot of drier air and
arrives from the southwest on the increasing LLJ. Storms should be
waning in the evening. Expecting seasonal temperatures Tuesday for
the first day of September and mostly rainfree. While Wednesday will
be something of a transition day with an upper trough moving through
OK/NTX with a trailing cold front sagging southeast through the
state and potentially getting close to the CWA. The GFS/ECMWF have
very different takes on how this plays out. GFS get the frontal
boundary near SETX and convection takes over and pushes southward
with storms Thursday over the area eventually the upper trough dips
all the way down near CRP and the boundary remains active Friday and
the front surges into the coastal areas by late Saturday with more
storms. The ECMWF on the other hand stalls the front much further
northwest and instead of swinging the upper trough through it starts
to cutoff and dip southwest with enough ridging over SETX to remain
mostly dry Wednesday-Friday. Sadly both are consistent with their
prior runs so not much help there. At this point will favor the
ECMWF as the GFS seems too energetic and fast with the upper
trough...it is still late summer. So will go with warmer and drier
conditions in the Wed-Fri period and carry some low chances for
rainfall.

45

&&

.TROPICS...
As for the tropics the much advertised CPC heating up of the
tropical season has certainly occurred and the latest advisory is
pinging on 3 systems with middling chances for development through 5
days. The system moving off of Africa in a few days looks to have
good chances for development as well with the ECMWF ensemble and
deterministic pinging it hard. For now the systems moving through
the MDR look to be stuck in a pattern of fairly fast moving
westerly movements trapped under large Atlantic ridge.

45

&&

.CLIMATE...

Galveston bottomed out yesterday at 86 which now ties the record for
the warmest record high minimum in August. This is now the latest in
the year to occur. Interestingly the 86 degree readings have only
taken place since 2019...August for that matter now has just 8 days
with recent record high mins that still stand prior 2000 the
remaining 23 days record high minimum temperatures are held by years
from 2000 to the present.

45

&&

.AVIATION [12Z TAF ISSUANCE]...

The northern sites will have periods of MVFR conditions through
around 15Z. Thereafter, VFR conditions expected for all sites.
S winds will be at 5-10 KTS today..up to 15 KTS along the coastal
sites. Iso-Sct SH/TS are expected to develop today along the
seabreeze boundaries and could occasionally affect sites IAH and
southward. Activity will dissipate in the evening. Winds will
decrease to around 5 KTS tonight.

24

&&

.MARINE...

Moderate onshore flow is expected to continue today. Showers and
thunderstorms will continue to develop this morning over the
coastal waters, as moisture moves into the local waters from the
Gulf. Winds will strengthen early next week into mid week as the
pressure gradient tightens. In response, seas will build to
around 4-6 FT. Caution Flags will likely be needed at times. Winds
relax and seas decrease during the second half of the work week.

24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 102 79 99 80 99 / 10 10 20 10 10
Houston (IAH) 99 81 97 81 96 / 40 20 30 10 10
Galveston (GLS) 94 85 93 84 91 / 40 20 20 10 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening
for the following zones: Austin...Brazoria Islands...
Brazos...Burleson...Chambers...Coastal Brazoria...Coastal
Galveston...Coastal Harris...Coastal Jackson...Coastal
Matagorda...Colorado...Fort Bend...Galveston Island and
Bolivar Peninsula...Grimes...Houston...Inland Brazoria...
Inland Galveston...Inland Harris...Inland Jackson...Inland
Matagorda...Madison...Matagorda Islands...Montgomery...
Northern Liberty...Polk...San Jacinto...Southern Liberty...
Trinity...Walker...Waller...Washington...Wharton.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$
Cromagnum
Posts: 2592
Joined: Thu Feb 03, 2011 10:42 pm
Contact:

These little popcorn showers are everywhere buy my area. Would welcome anything after dragging the hose over my yard for 10 hours yesterday
BlueJay
Posts: 938
Joined: Tue Mar 04, 2014 10:47 am
Location: Alden Bridge-The Woodlands, Texas
Contact:

It is oven-y outside.
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djmike
Posts: 1702
Joined: Fri Jan 07, 2011 12:19 pm
Location: BEAUMONT, TX
Contact:

Im back!!! Just got power back in Beaumont. This has been a brutal 7 days with Laura and no power and this heat. Evacuated Tuesday last week and home now. Little damage to home but nothing that cant be fixed. Biggest issue around PA and Beaumont is power and trees/limbs down and damage by falling trees and wires. Evacuated 4 people and 14 dogs into a hotel in Baton Rouge. Coming home, LaFayette westward is just complete devastation. Damage stops out west of Beaumont. Anyway. Were back. Alive. Safe. Exhausted. Now for some sense of normalcy. ...now, wheres that cold front again? Lol
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
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