September 2020:

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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jasons2k
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The dewpoint here was 60 when I woke-up with a pleasant 65 degrees outside. Now it’s up to 69 and it feels a lot more humid.
Andrew
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Nice CDO now trying to develop, the key here will be if it can hold on to that convection overnight and keep the dry air to it's southeast away.
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Rip76
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What is the current heading? Due W?
davidiowx
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Rip76 wrote: Sun Sep 20, 2020 1:53 pm What is the current heading? Due W?
WNE at 5mph per the 1pm advisory from the NHC
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Rip76
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davidiowx wrote: Sun Sep 20, 2020 1:54 pm
Rip76 wrote: Sun Sep 20, 2020 1:53 pm What is the current heading? Due W?
WNE at 5mph per the 1pm advisory from the NHC
This is impossible sir.
:D
davidiowx
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Rip76 wrote: Sun Sep 20, 2020 1:57 pm
davidiowx wrote: Sun Sep 20, 2020 1:54 pm
Rip76 wrote: Sun Sep 20, 2020 1:53 pm What is the current heading? Due W?
WNE at 5mph per the 1pm advisory from the NHC
This is impossible sir.
:D
Haha!! But it’s 2020! :lol:

WNW is what it should have said :mrgreen:
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CRASHWX
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Rip76 wrote: Sun Sep 20, 2020 1:57 pm
davidiowx wrote: Sun Sep 20, 2020 1:54 pm
Rip76 wrote: Sun Sep 20, 2020 1:53 pm What is the current heading? Due W?
WNE at 5mph per the 1pm advisory from the NHC
This is impossible sir.
:D
I DO NOT KNOW IT IS 2020! :lol:
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Rip76
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Sure looks WSW to me. (At least currently)
AtascocitaWX
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Man Gulf Storms are always full of surprises
cperk
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Getting a nice downpour here in Richmond.
Andrew
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cperk wrote: Sun Sep 20, 2020 2:11 pm Getting a nice downpour here in Richmond.
Yea I've been getting a steady rain for the last hour or so in the Garden Oaks/Oak Forest area.
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Stormlover2020
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This has to be strengthening!!!
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don
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Beta right now looks the best its ever looked. Could become a hurricane if the trend continues.
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Rip76
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Sounds like some fighter jets are getting the hell out of Ellington.
vci_guy2003
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So much for the computer model forecasts for intensity :roll:
Texashawk
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So is there not any more recon scheduled? How unfortunate if so...
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CRASHWX
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If the shear relaxes and it continues to fight off the dry air...could ole’ Beta pull a rabbit out of the hat? I say its quite possible. I have seen worse organized storm come back from near death to be formidable. Still don't think its a huge deal at this point but I think if it continues you may see the warning change.
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Scott747
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So I had a quick pow wow with Josh before he decides about heading this way. As I explained to him I was having a hard time believing that with those multiple passes that recon did and with the onboard radar they have that there wasn't a mention and special advisory about a potentially building eyewall.

However if there is indeed one there is no way it won't be mentioned in the next update at 4.
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Texashawk wrote: Sun Sep 20, 2020 2:29 pm So is there not any more recon scheduled? How unfortunate if so...
Should be one this evening for the 10 pm package.
unome
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https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPRPD_last.shtml

Code: Select all

491 
NOUS42 KNHC 191749
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0150 PM EDT SAT 19 SEPTEMBER 2020
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
         VALID 20/1100Z TO 21/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2020
         TCPOD NUMBER.....20-116

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. HURRICANE TEDDY
       FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 76          FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 74
       A. 20/2330Z                   A. 21/1130Z
       B. AFXXX 0620A TEDDY          B. AFXXX 0720A TEDDY
       C. 20/2030Z                   C. 21/0800Z
       D. 30.2N 62.2W                D. 33.0N 61.6W
       E. 20/2300Z TO 21/0230Z       E. 21/1100Z TO 21/1430Z
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT           F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

    2. TROPICAL STORM BETA
       FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 73          FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 71
       A. 20/2330Z,21/0530Z          A. 21/1130Z,1730Z
       B. AFXXX 0722A BETA           B. AFXXX 0822A BETA
       C. 20/2200Z                   C. 21/1000Z
       D. 27.5N 94.7W                D. 27.8N 95.4W
       E. 20/2300Z TO 21/0530Z       E. 21/1100Z TO 21/1730Z
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT           F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

    3. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:
       A. CONTINUE 12-HRLY FIXES ON TEDDY.
       B. CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES ON BETA WHILE IT REMAINS A THREAT.
       C. POSSIBLE NOAA 43 P-3 TDR MISSION INTO BETA, DEPARTING KLAL
          AT 21/2130Z.

    4. REMARKS:
       A. TODAY'S NOAA 49 G-IV SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSION AROUND
          BETA FOR 20/0000Z WILL NOT BE FLOWN.
       B. THE TEAL 75 20/1730Z MISSION REQUIREMENT TASKED FOR TEDDY
          IN TCPOD 20-115 WAS CANCELED BY NHC AT 19/1355Z.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

$$
SEF

NNNN

Code: Select all

491 
NOUS42 KNHC 191749
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0150 PM EDT SAT 19 SEPTEMBER 2020
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
         VALID 20/1100Z TO 21/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2020
         TCPOD NUMBER.....20-116

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. HURRICANE TEDDY
       FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 76          FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 74
       A. 20/2330Z                   A. 21/1130Z
       B. AFXXX 0620A TEDDY          B. AFXXX 0720A TEDDY
       C. 20/2030Z                   C. 21/0800Z
       D. 30.2N 62.2W                D. 33.0N 61.6W
       E. 20/2300Z TO 21/0230Z       E. 21/1100Z TO 21/1430Z
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT           F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

    2. TROPICAL STORM BETA
       FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 73          FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 71
       A. 20/2330Z,21/0530Z          A. 21/1130Z,1730Z
       B. AFXXX 0722A BETA           B. AFXXX 0822A BETA
       C. 20/2200Z                   C. 21/1000Z
       D. 27.5N 94.7W                D. 27.8N 95.4W
       E. 20/2300Z TO 21/0530Z       E. 21/1100Z TO 21/1730Z
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT           F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

    3. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:
       A. CONTINUE 12-HRLY FIXES ON TEDDY.
       B. CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES ON BETA WHILE IT REMAINS A THREAT.
       C. POSSIBLE NOAA 43 P-3 TDR MISSION INTO BETA, DEPARTING KLAL
          AT 21/2130Z.

    4. REMARKS:
       A. TODAY'S NOAA 49 G-IV SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSION AROUND
          BETA FOR 20/0000Z WILL NOT BE FLOWN.
       B. THE TEAL 75 20/1730Z MISSION REQUIREMENT TASKED FOR TEDDY
          IN TCPOD 20-115 WAS CANCELED BY NHC AT 19/1355Z.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

$$
SEF

NNNN
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