October 2020

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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tireman4
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I am almost hesitant to start this...I do wonder what the tropics will have in store for us this month.
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MontgomeryCoWx
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First October ice storm in Houston Metro history. Book it!
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Ptarmigan
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October produce some really strong hurricanes. Some of the most intense tropical cyclones have occurred in October.
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sambucol
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I hope we have no tropical systems this month, but it is 2020 after all.
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srainhoutx
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October is looking like a significant cool down for the Eastern half of the Country.
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Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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DoctorMu
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Monday's Cold Front should put a damper on tropical development in the GoM for awhile. *Maybe* for the season.

However, it is indeed 2020. Never say never! Be prepared.
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tireman4
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000
FXUS64 KHGX 011004
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
504 AM CDT Thu Oct 1 2020


.SHORT TERM [Today Through Saturday Night]...
Weak ridging extends from S TX up the coast to Galveston and then
up into SRN LA. A cold front was moving into the Dallas/Fort
Worth area around 4 am and should march south today with dry
northwesterly flow aloft nudging it on. The front should move
through the areas generally north of Huntsville before 1 pm and
then into the Houston Metro mid afternoon and off the coast this
evening. Not much noticeable change with it initially other than a
slight increase in winds becoming northerly. Temperatures today
should climb (thanks in large part to the very dry air over the
region) into the 85-91 degree range. The push of cooler and drier
air arrives toward morning Friday and will be looking for lows in
the lower 50s north to near 60 coastal counties and upper 60s
coast. High pressure keeps the dry air coming in Friday and early
Saturday before slipping away to the east and return flow starts
though hampered by the off the continent trajectory. Will be
watching the potential for some tropical development late Saturday
along the big cold front that is stalled out near Yucatan Straits.
45
&&




.LONG TERM [Sunday Through Thursday]...

While it`ll be more of a backdoor cold front on Sun, the reinforcing
shot of cool/dry air should help to keep the rather quiet pattern in
place across SE TX through the start of the week. Still not seeing a
lot of chances for rain with FROPA (such as it is), but things could
become slightly more favorable by late Weds on through until the end
of the week. Global models are continuing to hint at the possible de-
velopment of various tropical systems forming/moving across the Gulf
during this time frame. Canadian/GFS remain the more aggressive ones
with this pattern. However, it will be very unlikely that we`ll have
any impacts on the TX coast (save for perhaps some increased swells/
seas over our offshore waters) with any of these systems. The persist-
ent upper ridge that has been holding steady over the Rockies during
this past week (and hold through the upcoming weekend) is progged to
slowly flatten and shift east starting the middle of next week. While
this should help with warming temperatures and slowly increasing low-
level moisture for the middle/latter parts of next week, still not a
lot to hang our hat on for significant POPs of the CWFA until late in
the week or even next weekend if these extended runs are anything to
go by. 41

&&

.AVIATION [06Z TAF Issuance]...
VFR. Light westerly winds becoming north and northeast with the
passage of a cold front today. Windspeed of less than 6 knots
this morning then after FROPA increasing to 6-12 knots briefly.
45
&&

.MARINE...
With the next cold front forecast to move into the coastal waters by
this evening, the strong/gusty NE winds in its wake could prompt the
issuance of SCEC flags for our near/offshore waters for late tonight
through early Fri morning. Surface high pressure quickly moving into
and across the area will allow for these winds to decrease Fri...and
then become more easterly by the afternoon. A light/moderate SE flow
should prevail across the marine waters by Sat night...just ahead of
another next weak cold front progged to move into the coastal waters
late Sun afternoon/evening. This should produce another brief period
of SCEC conditions across the Gulf waters behind the front.

While there is still a great deal of uncertainty with the long range
forecasts of tropical system(s) developing in the Gulf next week, at
this time, we`re not expecting any significant impacts for our marine
waters...except for the possibility of increased swells/wave heights
across the offshore waters from the middle to the end of next week. 41

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 88 55 79 56 83 / 0 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 89 60 80 55 80 / 0 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 85 68 79 67 79 / 0 0 0 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...41
NEAR TERM...45
SHORT TERM...45
LONG TERM...41
AVIATION...45
MARINE...45
FIRE WEATHER...41
HYDROLOGY...
TROPICAL...
CLIMATE...41
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tireman4
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MontgomeryCoWx wrote: Mon Sep 21, 2020 7:56 pm First October ice storm in Houston Metro history. Book it!
That would be so 2020...LOL
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tireman4
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072
FXUS64 KHGX 011754
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1254 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2020

.AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]...

VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Northerly winds
this afternoon will become northeasterly tonight after a weak
boundary pushes through. GLS may see some gusts up to 20 to 20mph
overnight tonight.

Fowler

&&
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MontgomeryCoWx
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tireman4 wrote: Thu Oct 01, 2020 10:42 am
MontgomeryCoWx wrote: Mon Sep 21, 2020 7:56 pm First October ice storm in Houston Metro history. Book it!
That would be so 2020...LOL
Why I made the post :lol:
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jasons2k
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All I can say about the weather this week: magnificent!!

Love this!!!

It’s hard to believe that our last measurable rainfall came from a tropical cyclone.
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Can't believe I'm saying this (though it is 2020) but the lower Texas coast may need to keep an eye out for 91l. GFS for a couple of runs brings a major hurricane just s of the border near Matamoros.

It remains in the very long range but it has some support from the Euro which has a system in the southern gulf, though it seems to be showing the system behind 91l.
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tireman4
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FXUS64 KHGX 021056
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
556 AM CDT Fri Oct 2 2020

.AVIATION [12Z TAF ISSUANCE]...

VFR conditions expected as high pressure expands across the CWA.
North winds at 5-10 KTS becoming light and VRB tonight. Winds will
turn E and then SE Saturday as high pressure moves eastward. 24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 438 AM CDT Fri Oct 2 2020/

SHORT TERM [Today through Saturday]...

A cool and crisp feel to the air this morning as yesterday`s weak
cold front brought another surge of drier and colder air mass in
it`s wake. North to northeasterly winds will prevail today with
sunny skies and high temperatures several degrees cooler, at around
80-83 degrees F. The drier air will linger across SE Texas
throughout the day, decreasing dewpoints into the 40s and 50s this
afternoon through early Saturday morning. Overall, another very
pleasant day for SE Texas. Clear skies will allow for temperatures
to dip a few degrees more than last night.

A similar weather pattern can be expected Saturday with sunny skies
continuing. Winds turning east and then southeast along with plenty
of sunshine will allow for temperatures in the low to mid 80s
Saturday afternoon. 24

LONG TERM [Saturday Night Through Friday]...
Surface ridging over SE US extending back into SETX and STX with
a cold front sagging south across the Red River Saturday evening.
NHC currently progging an 80 percent chance of tropical
development of a persistent wave tucked in over the Western
Caribbean/Yucatan region later today or Saturday. And this feature
should be a slow mover. Ensembles more or less confine it to the
Yucatan region through Tuesday...possibly the east side or
slipping over to the west side. SETX should remain under the
influence of the ridging and the aforementioned cold front should
move through SETX Sunday during the day with an increase in cloud
cover and possibly a sprinkle but the column looks dry enough to
limit rain chance to areas well east of the region. Reinforcing
cool dry Canadian airmass settles in for Monday. Followed by
another weaker Canadian cold front Thursday. The subtropical
jetstream does start to strengthen coming up across Mexico and
overhead by Thursday and this should bring an increase in at least
high cloudiness. Winds over the Gulf will be strengthening Monday
and remain fairly stout through late week which should lead to an
increase in tide levels and stronger rip currents. Rain chances
look to be low to very low through Thursday. The focus is likely
be on the tropics with the potential for a large system (not
necessarily strong) to be parked over the Southern Gulf/Bay of
Campeche next week.
45

MARINE...
Moderate northeasterly winds this morning building seas in the
wake of the front now with this arrival of cooler and drier air.
SCEC flags hoisted for 15-20 knot winds and seas building to 3-5
feet this morning. Winds should relax mid afternoon and expect
SCEC conditions to end. Persistent east and northeast winds on tap
with high pressure to the northeast and eventually another reinforcing
cold front. Area of low pressure potentially tropical over the
Southern Gulf/Bay of Campeche next week will lead to a further
increase in swells and possibly rain chances as surge of tropical
moisture sweeps around it and possibly into the coastal waters
Tuesday or Wednesday. Mariners will want to keep up with the
latest forecasts for next week.
45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 81 55 83 57 85 / 0 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 83 57 83 60 86 / 0 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 79 70 78 71 82 / 0 0 0 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$
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srainhoutx
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The NHC will begin Advisories for Tropical Depression 25 in the NW Caribbean Sea at 10 AM CDT.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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Scott747 wrote: Fri Oct 02, 2020 6:11 am Can't believe I'm saying this (though it is 2020) but the lower Texas coast may need to keep an eye out for 91l. GFS for a couple of runs brings a major hurricane just s of the border near Matamoros.

It remains in the very long range but it has some support from the Euro which has a system in the southern gulf, though it seems to be showing the system behind 91l.
Yep, and my concern is that this ends up kinda like Beta as far as track goes. As there is a greater chance of having a stronger weakness from cold fronts this time of year.And could allow the storm to move further up the coast as some of the GFS ensembles show.
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jasons2k
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I saw this was written a couple of days ago, but I enjoyed the read. Pretty much how I feel - haha.
Houston's cold front makes me miss the heat already
Jay R. Jordan, Chron.com
Updated: Sep. 28, 2020 12:02 p.m.

Jay R. Jordan
I miss the heat already.

I’m down with a reprieve from triple-digit temperatures. I’m a sucker for hoodie weather, and a cool Halloween night is my idea of the perfect holiday.

Like all other Houstonians, I was elated to hear that a cold front would bring our first bout of fall temperatures this week. The overnight low tonight is predicted to be in the 50s, the perfect night to sleep with the windows open, snuggled under some blankets.

But when I stepped outside and felt a chill on the breeze this morning, I remembered what I least liked about the mild winters we have in Houston.

Thirty-five-degree Friday nights in late fall playing stand tunes with my high school band, with sleet slapping my face while I pretended to enjoy myself. Cars spinning out on the smallest patch of ice all over Houston when we have one of a handful of hard freezes.

Wearing sweaters in the mornings and T-shirts in the afternoon.

Let's face it, Houston. When it snows, it only sticks to the bridges.

What sense does a Houston winter make? We can’t get our hopes up for snow each year. What we can expect is shivering at a bus stop in the most humid 45-degree weather you could imagine.

We should enjoy this weather while we can.

But once the honeymoon phase of cooler temperatures is over, I will go back to wishing for warmer weather. I give it until November.

What's your idea of an ideal Houston winter? Send your thoughts to me on Twitter (@JayRJordan) or email me.
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CPC 6-10 day and 8-14 day precipitation forecast issued today suggest rain will return.
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tireman4
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319
FXUS64 KHGX 022033
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
333 PM CDT Fri Oct 2 2020

.SHORT TERM [Through Saturday Night]...

High pressure will continue to dominate the short term forecast.
Mostly clear skies, dry conditions, and light winds will continue
through Saturday night. The winds will be veering beginning
tonight and through the day on Saturday turning from a
northeasterly direction today, a easterly wind tonight, then
becoming southeasterly on Saturday. Temperatures tonight will dip
down into the 50s across most of the area, but temperatures in the
Bayou City and along the coast will probably stay in the low to
mid 60s. High temperatures during the day on Saturday will across
climb into the low 80s across the region. The more southeasterly
flow Saturday night will keep the temperatures about five degrees
warmer than tonight.

Fowler

.LONG TERM [Sunday Through Friday]...

A weak upper level low will pass to the north on Sunday. We won`t
really notice it other than some partly cloudy skies to the north.
It will usher in a reinforcing cold front Sunday night into Monday
morning continuing our stretch absolutely beautiful weather through
Tuesday with high temperatures in the mid 80s and low temperatures
in the low 60s. The forecast begins to get a little more messy by
the middle of next week as Tropical Depression 25 (or Tropical Storm
Gamma at that point) meanders around the Bay of Campeche. If it
able to wobble more to the north, some of the outer rainbands may
reach our far Gulf Waters by Thursday, with some high level
clouds streaming across the rest of the region. More info on TD 25
can be found in the tropical section below. One of the things
working in our favor is that there will be another cold front
(albeit very weak) moving into the region on Thursday that will
help keep some of the tropical moisture away from SE Texas.

Fowler

&&

.MARINE...

East to northeast winds gusting to 20 knots will gradually decrease
early this evening as pressure gradient relaxes. The region will be
dominated by a surface high pressure to our northeast, keeping light
to moderate onshore flow into Sunday. Seas up to 5 ft and gusty
winds from 20 to 25 knots will again be possible on Monday as
another cold front crosses the region.

We continue to monitor marine conditions for next week as a couple
of tropical systems move over/near the Gulf of Mexico. The first
system we are monitoring is the Tropical Depression 25, which is
currently near Yucatan/Bay Campeche and is expected to move across
the southern Gulf of Mexico over the next several days. This
Tropical Depression could potentially bring high swells/wave heights
and rain chances over our Gulf waters late next week. Marine
interest should continue to keep up with the latest forecast
information as these systems evolve. 05

&&

.TROPICAL...

Well, the quiet tropics was nice while it lasted. Tropical
Depression Twenty Five formed in the SW Caribbean this morning. It
is expected to move northwestward toward the Yucatan Peninsula in
the next couple of days. It is expected to reach tropical storm
strength Saturday morning, thus becoming Gamma. There is not much
steering flow over the southern Gulf right now, so 25/Gamma is
expected to just meander around the Yucatan and the Bay of Campeche
into the start of next week. There is still pretty large uncertainty
in the long term track because of the slow/meandering nature of the
system. It does not pose an immediate threat to SE Texas at this
time, but mariners should continue to follow the latest forecast
information as wave heights may remain elevated in the Gulf through
most of next week with TD25 meandering around. Rip current

There is another tropical wave that the NHC is monitoring for
development in the coming days in the eastern Caribbean. This
system has a 10 percent chance (low) of forming in the next two
days, and a 40 percent (medium) chance of development within the
next five days.

Fowler

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 1216 PM CDT Fri Oct 2 2020/...

.AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]...
VFR conditions are expected through the period. Breezy north
winds will gradually decrease early this evening, becoming light
and variable through the night. A shift to the east-southeast is
expected after 06Z Saturday as a high pressure moves east. 05

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 55 84 58 85 59 / 0 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 57 84 60 86 62 / 0 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 71 79 71 82 70 / 0 0 0 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$
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Katdaddy
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Another beautiful awesome SE TX weather evening on the way. TD 25 is looking good on satellite and will be interesting to watch through next week.
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DoctorMu
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jasons2k wrote: Fri Oct 02, 2020 2:20 pm I saw this was written a couple of days ago, but I enjoyed the read. Pretty much how I feel - haha.
Houston's cold front makes me miss the heat already
Jay R. Jordan, Chron.com
Updated: Sep. 28, 2020 12:02 p.m.

Jay R. Jordan
I miss the heat already.

I’m down with a reprieve from triple-digit temperatures. I’m a sucker for hoodie weather, and a cool Halloween night is my idea of the perfect holiday.

Like all other Houstonians, I was elated to hear that a cold front would bring our first bout of fall temperatures this week. The overnight low tonight is predicted to be in the 50s, the perfect night to sleep with the windows open, snuggled under some blankets.

But when I stepped outside and felt a chill on the breeze this morning, I remembered what I least liked about the mild winters we have in Houston.

Thirty-five-degree Friday nights in late fall playing stand tunes with my high school band, with sleet slapping my face while I pretended to enjoy myself. Cars spinning out on the smallest patch of ice all over Houston when we have one of a handful of hard freezes.

Wearing sweaters in the mornings and T-shirts in the afternoon.

Let's face it, Houston. When it snows, it only sticks to the bridges.

What sense does a Houston winter make? We can’t get our hopes up for snow each year. What we can expect is shivering at a bus stop in the most humid 45-degree weather you could imagine.

We should enjoy this weather while we can.

But once the honeymoon phase of cooler temperatures is over, I will go back to wishing for warmer weather. I give it until November.

What's your idea of an ideal Houston winter? Send your thoughts to me on Twitter (@JayRJordan) or email me.

Great. I'll send him my A/C bill next summer.

One of the problems for us up in the Brazos Valley is a LOT less cloud cover in the summer than Houston. The sun beats mercilessly down.

Never really had trouble with cold around here, especially during the day. Layering is an amazing thing!
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