December 2020

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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don
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No its not..., heavy rain is on the way moving in from the south.
Cromagnum
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Tornado watch likely closer to our area. This mess is moving east now.
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tropiKal wrote: Thu Dec 31, 2020 7:35 am Total non-event for Houston, just like I predicted.
You are absolutely wrong. Mesoscale discussions show its going to be a rough day for Houston starting later this morning. Stop trolling, or better yet, educate yourself and talk to the pros in here before posting false information.
Last edited by Cromagnum on Thu Dec 31, 2020 9:11 am, edited 1 time in total.
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don
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Mesoscale Discussion 1893
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0710 AM CST Thu Dec 31 2020

Areas affected...Portions of the upper TX Coast and far southwestern
LA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 311310Z - 311445Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...The threat for isolated tornadoes and damaging
straight-line winds should increase this morning. Watch issuance may
be needed.

DISCUSSION...Convection has gradually increased in coverage this
morning across the western Gulf of Mexico and near Matagorda Bay
along the TX Coast, as forcing for ascent preceding an upper low
over northern Mexico overspreads this region. As a surface low
develops northward along/near the upper TX Coast this morning,
thunderstorms should focus along an eastward-moving cold front.
Although the warm sector is not forecast to make much northward
progress across southeast TX and southwestern LA this morning, the
presence of mid 60s surface dewpoints should support modest
boundary-layer instability (MLCAPE 500-1000 J/kg). Both the low and
mid-level flow fields are expected to strengthen over the next few
hours as the upper low moves slowly northeastward, with a
corresponding increase in effective bulk shear to 45-60 kt likely. A
mix of supercells and short line segments should develop along/ahead
of the front. Given the veering/strengthening low-level wind profile
will support updraft rotation, isolated tornadoes appear possible.
Damaging straight-line winds and marginally severe hail may also
occur. A tornado watch may be needed for some portion of the upper
TX Coast vicinity this morning to account for this increasing severe
risk.

..Gleason/Thompson.. 12/31/2020
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Katdaddy
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URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 520
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
740 AM CST Thu Dec 31 2020

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of
The upper Texas coastal plain
Coastal Waters

* Effective this Thursday morning and afternoon from 740 AM until
300 PM CST.

* Primary threats include...
A few tornadoes possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will increase in coverage and intensity
through the morning while spreading inland across the upper Texas
coast. The storm environment will gradually become more favorable
for supercells inland, with an attendant threat for a few tornadoes
and damaging winds through early to mid afternoon.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 40 statute miles
north and south of a line from 25 miles west southwest of Angleton
TX to 20 miles north northeast of Port Arthur TX.
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tireman4
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Cromagnum wrote: Thu Dec 31, 2020 7:50 am
tropiKal wrote: Thu Dec 31, 2020 7:35 am Total non-event for Houston, just like I predicted.
Tropikal,

Please watch how you phrase items. We have nonregulars ( and regulars) who come into our little world and want to see weather updates. This will be an event, ( as per the HGX NWS) and we must all be weather aware. To say statements such as " This is a non-event for Houston, just like I predicted" is hindering this reasoning for this board, information transferrence. Please be weather aware. Thank you in advance.
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tireman4
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HGX Weather Watches...
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tireman4
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Risk of Storms Today
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tireman4
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To those who are thinking this is not going to be an event, please read the first sentence. Please be weather aware..


000
FXUS64 KHGX 311014
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
414 AM CST Thu Dec 31 2020

.SHORT TERM [Today through Friday]...

Although there has been a lull in the locally heavy rainfall and training
of activity early this morning, the threat does persist for additional
shower and thunderstorm development today as the northeast to southwest
oriented front remains nearly stationary across the area (4 AM temperatures
in the 40s/50s behind the boundary and in the 60s to around 70 ahead
of the boundary - IAH at 56 degrees and HOU at 70 degrees) and low pressure
develops and moves across the area. The greatest threat for flash flooding
looks to be mainly in/around those spots that received the 2 to 5 inch
totals yesterday, generally from the western Montgomery County area
to the Wharton County-Jackson County area. By the time the line of showers
and thunderstorms develops and moves east of yesterday`s impacted locations,
it is looking like enough eastward motion should set up to keep the
flash flooding threat on the low side. However, if the surface low moves
across the area slower than expected, then the risk for flooding will
increase.

In addition to the heavy rainfall threat, there will be an increasing
risk of strong/severe thunderstorm development as the low approaches
and moves across the area. Expecting the highest helicities and strongest
shear to eventually set up mainly to the east of the Highway 59 corridor
with the higher risk from the Galveston Bay area eastward on into Louisiana.

As the low moves to the north and out of the area later this afternoon
and tonight, rains will come to an end and we`ll only be dealing with
some wind issues near the coast and marine issues in the bays and coastal
waters.

The first day of the new year will be cool and quiet. 42

&&

.LONG TERM [Friday Night through Thursday]...

Our first night of the year 2021 should be quite pleasant. With
surface low pressure having long since departed to the northeast,
the upcoming weekend will be characterized by generally benign
weather across SE TX. Light to moderate northwesterly winds will
allow for cooler and drier air to filter into the area, with
overnight lows on Friday expected to remain in the upper 30s to low
40s across most of the area. While some lingering moisture in the
wake of the departing system will prove favorable for a cloudy day
on Friday, cloud cover should begin to diminish overnight with
widespread clearing expected on Saturday. The remainder of the
weekend should be clear and crisp as surface high pressure remains
the dominant synoptic feature over the south central CONUS. Highs on
Saturday and Sunday will range from the upper 50s to low 60s, with
overnight lows remaining in the 30s to low 40s but not below
freezing.

A pattern shift comes by Monday as the surface high pressure drifts
into the Central Gulf, allowing for a redevelopment of southerly
winds and increased moisture transport/WAA to SE TX. Temperatures
should be on a warming trend during the beginning of the week with a
return to daytime highs in the 70s anticipated on Tuesday afternoon.
Our next shot at precipitation comes on Wednesday as a 300mb
longwave trough digging into the Rockies induces lee cyclogenesis in
eastern CO, with the developing surface low moving into the Central
Plains. A cold front extending from this feature will approach the
area on Wednesday, bringing with it a chance of showers and storms.
Rainfall looks progged to end by Thursday with another period of
cool and dry weather in store as surface high pressure settles
behind the departing front.

Cady

&&

.AVIATION...

Early this morning, a mix of IFR/LIFR ceilings/visibilities can
be found behind the stationary front inland and mainly MVFR ceilings
ahead of the front closer to the coast. A mix of similar ceiling
are anticipated this morning through early this afternoon with a
continued SHRA/TSRA risk. Improving conditions are expected generally
from the south to the north as the afternoon progresses, but parts
of the area could be dealing with MVFR ceilings into the overnight
hours and might not become VFR until Friday. 42

&&

.MARINE...

Increasing winds and building seas can be expected both ahead of and
behind the storm system that will be moving across the area today.
Shower and thunderstorm coverage will be on the increase as a low
pressure system and associated cold front move through the area.
Strong west and northwest winds and elevated seas are expected in
the wake of the departing system with low water levels in and around
the bays possible. A Gale Warning is in effect for the Gulf waters
this afternoon through early Friday morning due to the possibility
of frequent gusts near 40 knots. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect
for the Bays at the same time. Marine conditions should begin to improve
on Friday with gradually weakening north to northwest winds and lowering
seas. An onshore flow should return to the area at the end of the
weekend or the start of next week. 42

&&

.CLIMATE...

Galveston tied their record high of 75 degrees yesterday (December 30th).
The old record of 75 degrees was set in 1971.

Rainfall records for today are...
2.30 inches (set in 1892) for the City of College Station area
3.35 inches (set in 1896) for the City of Houston area
1.30 inches (set in 1941) for Houston Hobby
1.76 inches (set in 1949) for the City of Galveston area.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 56 38 54 35 56 / 100 20 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 67 41 58 39 55 / 100 10 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 69 44 58 44 54 / 100 10 0 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Flash Flood Watch until 3 PM CST this afternoon for the
following zones: Austin...Brazoria Islands...Brazos...
Burleson...Coastal Brazoria...Coastal Jackson...Coastal
Matagorda...Colorado...Fort Bend...Grimes...Houston...
Inland Brazoria...Inland Harris...Inland Jackson...Inland
Matagorda...Madison...Matagorda Islands...Montgomery...
Polk...San Jacinto...Trinity...Walker...Waller...
Washington...Wharton.

High Rip Current Risk until noon CST today for the following
zones: Brazoria Islands...Galveston Island and Bolivar
Peninsula...Matagorda Islands.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 6 AM CST Friday for the
following zones: Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay.

Small Craft Advisory until noon CST today for the following
zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship
Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island to
Freeport TX out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport to Matagorda
Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island
to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.

Gale Warning from noon today to 6 AM CST Friday for the
following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda
Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island
to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport to
Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from
High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$
davidiowx
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It’s 41 in Laredo... 18 degrees colder than my house at the moment..
Cpv17
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Up to 7.5” now. Still some more to come from the looks of the radar.
tropiKal
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Cromagnum wrote: Thu Dec 31, 2020 7:50 amYou are absolutely wrong. Mesoscale discussions show its going to be a rough day for Houston starting later this morning.
Meh, just your basic brief stormy weather that will clear on out later the afternoon/evening. Nothing real noteworthy.
Stop trolling
no u
or better yet, educate yourself and talk to the pros in here before posting false information.
I'm already a pro.
tropiKal
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tireman4 wrote: Thu Dec 31, 2020 9:05 amTropikal,

Please watch how you phrase items. We have nonregulars ( and regulars) who come into our little world and want to see weather updates. This will be an event, ( as per the HGX NWS) and we must all be weather aware. To say statements such as " This is a non-event for Houston, just like I predicted" is hindering this reasoning for this board, information transferrence. Please be weather aware. Thank you in advance.
Fair enough.
Last edited by tropiKal on Thu Dec 31, 2020 11:57 am, edited 1 time in total.
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tireman4
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tropiKal wrote: Thu Dec 31, 2020 9:55 am
Cromagnum wrote: Thu Dec 31, 2020 7:50 amYou are absolutely wrong. Mesoscale discussions show its going to be a rough day for Houston starting later this morning.
Meh, just your basic brief stormy weather that will clear on out later the afternoon/evening. Nothing real noteworthy.
Stop trolling
no u
or better yet, educate yourself and talk to the pros in here before posting false information.
I'm already a pro.
If you are a professional met, please contact Srain so he can receive your credentials and designate you as such ( Andrew, Black, McCheer, Brooks, Jeff....and others have that designation).
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Katdaddy
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...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1045 AM CST
FOR SOUTHEASTERN BRAZORIA COUNTY...

At 1017 AM CST, a severe thunderstorm was located near Oyster Creek,
or near Surfside Beach, moving north at 30 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Surfside Beach, Danbury and Oyster Creek.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 300 PM CST for southeastern
Texas.

Remain alert for a possible tornado! Tornadoes can develop quickly
from severe thunderstorms. If you spot a tornado go at once into the
basement or small central room in a sturdy structure.

To report severe weather contact your nearest law enforcement agency.
They will send your report to the National Weather Service office in
League City.

Heavy rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to flash
flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.
Cromagnum
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Looks like I'll be using the ignore feature for probably the first time ever on here.
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djmike
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Beaumonts turn!

Not a drop of rain till just now. Flood watch. Tornado watch. Hail and winds possibly. Its gonna be a looooong last day of the year for us here. Prayers we all get some beneficial rains and no damage. Stay weather aware extreme SETX. Happy New Years!!!
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
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djmike
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Cromagnum wrote: Thu Dec 31, 2020 10:45 am Looks like I'll be using the ignore feature for probably the first time ever on here.
Already have. Someone is just trying to ruffle feathers. Smh
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Cromagnum wrote: Thu Dec 31, 2020 10:45 am Looks like I'll be using the ignore feature for probably the first time ever on here.
I tried finding this option but didn’t see it. The trolling is obvious. It makes the forum almost unreadable.
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don
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Strong inflow is pulling training storms along the I-45 corridor,which has me a little concern there may start to be some flood issues soon.
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