February 2021: Arctic Outbreak/Warmup Begins

[don]

12z CMC still showing an ice storm valentines weekend as it digs the trough more to our west.

[Kingwood36]

12z CMC still showing an ice storm valentines weekend as it digs the trough more to our west.

For our area?

[don]

12z CMC still showing an ice storm valentines weekend as it digs the trough more to our west.

For our area?

Yes,the GFS and ICON also shows a wintry mix in our area but there much lighter with the precip. And show more of a freezing drizzle situation.While the CMC has a full fledged ice storm at the same time. Just to reiterate at this time i am not expecting any record breaking cold,but a few days of not getting out of the 30s and a couple of hard freezes is definitely on the table with this setup. If you want a winter storm and possibly snow this setup is better for that than getting the full brunt of the arctic air.Which would probably cause too much suppression for precip.

[Cpv17]

12z CMC still showing an ice storm valentines weekend as it digs the trough more to our west.

For our area?

Yes,the GFS and ICON also shows a wintry mix in our area but there much lighter with the precip. And show more of a freezing drizzle situation.While the CMC has a full fledged ice storm at the same time. Just to reiterate at this time i am not expecting any record breaking cold,but a few days of not getting out of the 30s and a couple of hard freezes is definitely on the table with this setup. If you want a winter storm and possibly snow this setup is better for that than getting the full brunt of the arctic air.Which would probably cause too much suppression for precip.

What’s your thoughts on the SE ridge poking its head into our area?

[don]

Well the 12z EURO took a step in the right direction as it breaks down the ridging over Texas now.But its still slower and warmer with the front than the other models are. I'm not too concerned with the SE ridge for now..., but we do need to watch it, as depending on how weak or strong it is it could work in our favor or against us at the end lol.

[don]

Not too often do you see Wxman57 start to get onboard this early with the possibility of an icing event around here... The NBM model seems to be buying into the possibility also.

[Kingwood36]

Not too often do you see Wxman57 start to get onboard this early with the possibility of an icing event around here... The NBM model seems to be buying into the possibility also.

Its not making it to the coast tho..im sure it would when the actual event would take place. Just saying on that image it doesn't show it

[don]

Its a pretty good signal though this far out,as this model is an blend of several models.

[kyzsl51]

Not too often do you see Wxman57 start to get onboard this early with the possibility of an icing event around here... The NBM model seems to be buying into the possibility also.

Its not making it to the coast tho..im sure it would when the actual event would take place. Just saying on that image it doesn't show it

Do you really want there to be freezing rain? I'll take snow and super cold over that any day. There is nothing fun about freezing rain.

[don]

Yep, there's nothing fun at all about ice storms....Hopefully we can get some deeper air and get snow instead.As I remember the ice storm in January 1997 and being without power,there was alot of damage due to trees and powerlines coming down from the weight of the ice.

[Kingwood36]

I've never seen freezing rain so I figured it would be cool to see. I know it causes problems and nobody wants that..but the kid in me wants to see it...dont hate on me lol

[kyzsl51]

I've never seen freezing rain so I figured it would be cool to see. I know it causes problems and nobody wants that..but the kid in me wants to see it...dont hate on me lol

Well in that case atleast you'll never want to see it again lol

[DoctorMu]

Yes that is true, a lot of it has to do with geography, and also the Coriolis Effect.But climatology speaking southeast Texas has experienced a LOT more winter weather events than deep south Texas has.But the Coriolis Effect alters the progression of fronts and tends to pull them more southward than eastward which is why arctic fronts sometimes reach parts of south Texas before us.And then there's the Ozarks shadow, which slows down the progression of cold air advection around here when we have a northeast flow aloft.Due to the mountains blocking/slowing the progression of cold air even though i notice models tend to overdue the effect of the Ozarks shadow around here.

Ouachitas? The Ozarks are barely in NE OK. The Ozark's aren't really talk enough or even technically mountains built by crust rising. They are a plateau/escarpment that is eroding over 100s of millions of years. Just like the Hill Country (Edward plateau escarpment) doesn't block jack****. The Ouchitas are taller and are an ancient mountain range.

OK's highest altitude/point is in its panhandle.

I was referring to the Ozarks in Arkansas, which sometimes slows down the progression of arctic air over eastern Texas when high pressure is positioned northeast of us over the Midwest. But i notice the effect doesn't really happen often and models tend to overdue the effect.

Besides the Boston Mountains (which was created in a different event), the Ozarks aren't tall enough. The main Ozark plateau doesn't have an altitude over 1700 ft. Same altitude as Junction, TX. Most of South Dakota > 1700 ft and SD doesn't slow anything down.

[DoctorMu]

CMC has a major ice storm for southeast Texas.

You do realize that the CMC has us in the 20s for daytime highs on Friday, Saturday, Sunday and into Monday. That's never, ever happened before for that duration in our recorded history and no other model even comes close to that solution. The CMC is garbage and should be disregarded. Although IF it did stumble and get it right, that is an ice age for the US. It just keeps reloading with 1050-1060+ high after another. #WontHappen

Probably won't get the deep freeze because of latitude, but CMC did nail the Jan 10 storm.

[DoctorMu]

12z Euro is running a lot colder. Not frozen tundra colder, but colder.

Interesting - GFS has less warm nose than Canadian in this run. Canadian ice, snow line about College Station on latest run.

Ensembles are running colder as well. Not pipe bursting stuff yet, and the gradient between downtown Houston and College Station is pretty large - we're far more likely to see lows in the teens (true anyway), but especially so here.

We'll see.

[DoctorMu]

[Katdaddy]

This afternoon's AFD sums it up nicely regarding possible Winter precipitation late next week:

A weak cold front is moving through the area today, but the focus
of this forecast period likely remains out at the very end, with
considerable speculation about the potential for wintry precip
flying about. Of course, winter weather in this area is
climatologically infrequent, and with good reason. There is
considerable uncertainty given the wide array of plausible
scenarios in the model guidance, and there is precious little
scientific signal to dig out of the noise.

[Cpv17]

Latest GFS has teens for southeast Texas.

[Kingwood36]

Latest GFS has teens for southeast Texas.

I'm liking that! Soup making weather right there!

[TexasMetBlake]

Latest GFS has teens for southeast Texas.

I'm liking that! Soup making weather right there!

Are you sure it's the GFS? I just looked at the 18z and the lowest I could find was 25 for Houston. I mean I did see 18 degrees for Huntsville and College Station on Sunday morning but I'm not convinced. This arctic airmass just doesn't look all that to me like it once did. We'll get cold but likely nothing memorable. Could change.