February 2021: Arctic Outbreak/Warmup Begins

[Kingwood36]

So when is the first push of cold air suppose to make it here? I know its weather bug but it has a 60% chance of wintery mix here on monday..so will see what happens

[DoctorMu]

My goodness, the 12z ICON model is insane with the cold.

GFS, ICON went mega colder, Canadian went warmer, one of the Ensembles is colder. Euro warmer. Unresolved.

Euro actually went colder compared to 0z and it’s ensemble has below average temps now too.

Canadian flipped again, back to the COLD.

[DoctorMu]

Icon isn't playing

lol Neither is CMC

[Kingwood36]

Gotta love that icon

[don]

Lol yep the ICON now has a major winter storm also on the 15th we'll see...

[Stormlover2020]

Gfs major ice storm

[Kingwood36]

Gfs major ice storm

Ya all the way to the coast...its nasty

[srainhoutx]

Ridiculous cold on the GFS for Sunday.

[Kingwood36]

Is this starting to become real to anyone else or is it just me?

[don]

Its getting close as we are almost within 120 hours of the event. I'll like to see another day or two of models before I'm fully on-board though. But the GFS bringing back the ice storm this Saturday does raise an eyebrow.

[Kingwood36]

Its getting close as we are almost within 120 hours of the event. I'll like to see another day or two of models before I'm fully on-board though. But the GFS bringing back the ice storm this Saturday does raise an eyebrow.

So the ice storm has moved up from Monday of next week to this saturday?

[davidiowx]

I am doing everything I can to not get excited about this, but it is looking promising per models. Obviously this is tricky and a lot can and will change, but if we continue to see these model outputs come Wed/Thursday, then this is going to get even more interesting!

[don]

So the ice storm has moved up from Monday of next week to this saturday?

Models actually show two potential storms the first one next Saturday/Valentines day as the first shortwave moves through. Then next Monday/Tuesday as another shortwave moves through that causes more frozen precip to breakout. We could be looking at a multi day winter storm. BTW the CMC also is onboard with a winter storm this weekend.

[danmaloney]

06 euro little warmer

I am detecting negativity from stormlover2020.

[TexasMetBlake]

Man, if the GFS/CMC are correct, that would be a 1989 type freeze with a 1983 duration. The "best" of both worlds. That would spell disaster for Texas with crops and pipes. I'm still not ready to bite on such extreme solutions but man, this is incredible.

[danmaloney]

You folks should start monitoring the NAM regarding the first front on Wednesday. The NAM does a good job regarding shallow airmasses and may assist in just how cold the first push will be.

Below is the actual temperatures across the Central US. -30F North Dakota with -50F windchill readings stretching from the Yukon Territories to the Northern Plains.

This is what I like. SRAIN is being positive. Hopefully, there will be enough of a ridge over florida/georgia to block the cold from going east. We all need to pray.

[danmaloney]

Its getting close as we are almost within 120 hours of the event. I'll like to see another day or two of models before I'm fully on-board though. But the GFS bringing back the ice storm this Saturday does raise an eyebrow.

So the ice storm has moved up from Monday of next week to this saturday?

We dont need ice. We need sleet and mostly snow.

[Kingwood36]

Euro is going to be mighty interesting....

[danmaloney]

Euro is going to be mighty interesting....

What we need is to avoid ice. There might be a way out of the ice storm. First, the shortwaves. These are upper level low pressure disturbances,in other words, colder air in the upper atmosphere. That is conducive more for snow. Second, the cold air could be deeper than the models are seeing.

[Cpv17]

Euro is going to be mighty interesting....

I still don’t think the Euro is going to fully jump onboard. We’ll see. I just think the reason why the models are struggling so much with this event is because of how massive it could possibly be and it’s just too much for them to figure out.