February 2021: Arctic Outbreak/Warmup Begins

[danmaloney]

Euro is going to be mighty interesting....

I still don’t think the Euro is going to fully jump onboard. We’ll see. I just think the reason why the models are struggling so much with this event is because of how massive it could possibly be and it’s just too much for them to figure out.

Jeff Linder and Wxman57 are running out of options to stop the cold air. Their last hope might be to use Highway 1%5 as some sort of physical barrier to prevent the cold air from moving.

[Kingwood36]

Euro is going to be mighty interesting....

I still don’t think the Euro is going to fully jump onboard. We’ll see. I just think the reason why the models are struggling so much with this event is because of how massive it could possibly be and it’s just too much for them to figure out.

Jeff Linder and Wxman57 are running out of options to stop the cold air. Their last hope might be to use Highway 1%5 as some sort of physical barrier to prevent the cold air from moving.

I dont think hwy 105 is going to be a problem this time lol

[biggerbyte]

I think Arizona is going to block the cold air from coming to Texas. LOL

[DoctorMu]

Euro is going to be mighty interesting....

What we need is to avoid ice. There might be a way out of the ice storm. First, the shortwaves. These are upper level low pressure disturbances,in other words, colder air in the upper atmosphere. That is conducive more for snow. Second, the cold air could be deeper than the models are seeing.

Right - no warm nose! Cool that column! If precip is imminent, it might as well be snow. Hoping for that La Nina Texas Twofer.

[DoctorMu]

Highway Lucy has her work cut out for her...possibly.

Lows in CLL of 19°, 14°, 7°, 3°F or below for GEFS, ICON, CMC, GFS,

[Kingwood36]

12z euro just joined the gfs and Canadian ..the cold is coming this weekend

[don]

Looks like 12z EURO is starting to get onboard now,just a little slower with the push of arctic air and still warmer than other models are. But it definitely trended colder and closer to what the other globals are showing.It also has a light wintry mix on Valentines day now.

[DoctorMu]

12z euro just joined the gfs and Canadian ..the cold is coming this weekend

Yep, EURO capitulates for now on prolonged arctic cold. Snow/ice line around Highway Lucy.

We'll see.

[don]

12z EURO now onboard for next Mondays winter storm also.

[Kingwood36]

12zeuro has snow all over texas

[Cpv17]

Well it’s nowhere near as cold as the other models. It’ll probably catch up to them at some point.

[Stormlover2020]

That’s a really good trend !!!

[Kingwood36]

When are the fronts suppose to make their way down

[danmaloney]

Highway Lucy has her work cut out for her...possibly.

Lows in CLL of 19°, 14°, 7°, 3°F or below for GEFS, ICON, CMC, GFS,

Two models showing snow in the Houston area. Trend is your friend. Snow is better than ice.

[txsnowmaker]

This is getting very exciting. Nearly every model showing snow in Houston in about a week. That GFS map is a doozy — showing at least around 4 inches of snow in the middle of metro Houston.

[Andrew]

Synoptically, models are still all over the place with the progression of the overall trough and any subsequent shortwaves. I would be cautious in buying into any one solution right now but it is looking more and more likely that some sort of freezing weather will impact the region this weekend into next week. Outside of that, everything else is pretty speculative at this point. The latest ECMWF and GFS solutions are lining up slightly better now so that is promising. The other big factor will be any frozen precipitation that does fall could artificially keep temperatures below freezing for an extended period of time.

[don]

Pretty much all of the 12Z GFS ensembles show a winter storm of some sort over the area, and most of the state.The EURO ensembles are also onboard.

[Kingwood36]

[quote=don post_id=94621 time=1612814069 user_id=67]
Pretty much all of the 12Z GFS ensembles show a winter storm of some sort over the area, and most of the state.The EURO ensembles are also onboard.
[/quote]

[DoctorMu]

Synoptically, models are still all over the place with the progression of the overall trough and any subsequent shortwaves. I would be cautious in buying into any one solution right now but it is looking more and more likely that some sort of freezing weather will impact the region this weekend into next week. Outside of that, everything else is pretty speculative at this point. The latest ECMWF and GFS solutions are lining up slightly better now so that is promising. The other big factor will be any frozen precipitation that does fall could artificially keep temperatures below freezing for an extended period of time.

Potential for albedo was one of the big changes in the Euro. We're still a long way out...but hoping for more congruence and less ice (more column cooling snow). Our best chance to approach or beat my avatar in 16 years.

One of the more interesting factors is cold air in place before the precip. A rare scenario that could limit the warm nose.

[Kingwood36]

When its the first front suppose to blow through