February 2021: Arctic Outbreak/Warmup Begins

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Synoptically, models are still all over the place with the progression of the overall trough and any subsequent shortwaves. I would be cautious in buying into any one solution right now but it is looking more and more likely that some sort of freezing weather will impact the region this weekend into next week. Outside of that, everything else is pretty speculative at this point. The latest ECMWF and GFS solutions are lining up slightly better now so that is promising. The other big factor will be any frozen precipitation that does fall could artificially keep temperatures below freezing for an extended period of time.

Potential for albedo was one of the big changes in the Euro. We're still a long way out...but hoping for more congruence and less ice (more column cooling snow). Our best chance to approach or beat my avatar in 16 years.

One of the more interesting factors is cold air in place before the precip. A rare scenario that could limit the warm nose.

That's A Bingo!

[srainhoutx]

CPC Day 6 to 10 Temperature and Precipitation Outlook.

[danmaloney]

Synoptically, models are still all over the place with the progression of the overall trough and any subsequent shortwaves. I would be cautious in buying into any one solution right now but it is looking more and more likely that some sort of freezing weather will impact the region this weekend into next week. Outside of that, everything else is pretty speculative at this point. The latest ECMWF and GFS solutions are lining up slightly better now so that is promising. The other big factor will be any frozen precipitation that does fall could artificially keep temperatures below freezing for an extended period of time.

Potential for albedo was one of the big changes in the Euro. We're still a long way out...but hoping for more congruence and less ice (more column cooling snow). Our best chance to approach or beat my avatar in 16 years.

One of the more interesting factors is cold air in place before the precip. A rare scenario that could limit the warm nose.

That's A Bingo!

What is albedo? ive never seen that weather term before.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Albedo affects climate by determining how much radiation a planet absorbs. The uneven heating of Earth from albedo variations between land, ice, or ocean surfaces can drive weather.

[jasons2k]

In other words, a snowpack already in place to the north would make our downstream temperatures colder. Also, if we have any frozen precipitation on the ground here locally, it will keep temperatures colder, longer.

A snowpack on the ground is a contributing factor for historical low temperatures.

[danmaloney]

In other words, a snowpack already in place to the north would make our downstream temperatures colder. Also, if we have any frozen precipitation on the ground here locally, it will keep temperatures colder, longer.

A snowpack on the ground is a contributing factor for historical low temperatures.

I havent thought of the snowpack and frozen ground to our north. I dont think the models take that into account

[Cpv17]

In other words, a snowpack already in place to the north would make our downstream temperatures colder. Also, if we have any frozen precipitation on the ground here locally, it will keep temperatures colder, longer.

A snowpack on the ground is a contributing factor for historical low temperatures.

I havent thought of the snowpack and frozen ground to our north. I dont think the models take that into account

Where there’s a strong snowpack to the north it creates less moderation with the temps as they progress south.

[TexasMetBlake]

The Dallas AFD acknowledges the GFS regarding the biggest arctic outbreak since 1989. Good read. They're definitely not discounting the GFS completely. Waiting to see the Houston AFD. I see Houston has tanked our high for Sunday, too.

[DoctorMu]

12zeuro has snow all over texas

3.3 inch bullseye over us.

Entertaining if nothing else...

[Cpv17]

CPC Day 6 to 10 Temperature and Precipitation Outlook.

They removed the 7th shade

Darn

[DoctorMu]

CPC Day 6 to 10 Temperature and Precipitation Outlook.

I'd like to personally thank srain's Great Smokys for their effort in blocking if this scenario bears out.

[srainhoutx]

CPC Day 6 to 10 Temperature and Precipitation Outlook.

I'd like to personally thank srain's Great Smokys for their effort in blocking if this scenario bears out.

After the paste job we had Saturday night/early Sunday morning, I'll gladly let you folks take this one...

[Cromagnum]

12zeuro has snow all over texas

3.3 inch bullseye over us.

Entertaining if nothing else...

All south of 105 this time . Fair is fair.

[Kingwood36]

12zeuro has snow all over texas

3.3 inch bullseye over us.

Entertaining if nothing else...

All south of 105 this time . Fair is fair.

Amen!

[BlueJay]

Love your pictures srain! (Your dog is adorable)
But that looks too cold for me.

[danmaloney]

12zeuro has snow all over texas

3.3 inch bullseye over us.

Entertaining if nothing else...

All south of 105 this time . Fair is fair.

DONT JINX THIS. never use the word or number 1%5. always use some symbol like i did. or call it,highway lucy. the numbers 1 0 5 are forever banned

[Kingwood36]

Has houstons AFD came out yet?

[danmaloney]

https://weather.com/maps/currentdewpoint

[davidiowx]

Has houstons AFD came out yet?

Yes, they left any frozen precip mention out of the grids for now.

[Kingwood36]

Has houstons AFD came out yet?

Yes, they left any frozen precip mention out of the grids for now.

Understandable...still a week out..ik sure it will get mentioned around the Wed/thur mark