February 2021: Arctic Outbreak/Warmup Begins

[biggerbyte]

NWS, Houston is just not buying into any of this "major weather event". Yes some chilly temps with a slight chance of non frozen precip. We are viewing all of these impressive looking models in this forum, but they have to be looking at something different that says not happening.

That's not true at all...the NWS is always cautious when it comes to winter precip events. They even mention the possibility of watch's or warnings next week in their discussion this afternoon.They will become more bullish once we get within 72 hours of the event. That's pretty much always how they handle winter storms around here. For example in the 2018 sleet storm they never even issued winter storm watches, and only issued a winter storm warning/advisories for most of the area the day before the storm.

Yes, I know. I'm speaking only of the current forecast. This situation would surely have to be far from certain or the forecast would already reflect it. So the outstanding question is what are they looking at that prevents them from jumping on-board. They just need to surf this forum.. LOL

[djmike]

JMO- I think we will see temps colder than what models are forecasting. We see it every time. Models have a hard time grasping cold air surges. Mets here in Beaumont are now including ice/mix on there 5 day with 24 as our lowest. Bet we see lows close to 20. Seems to always be 5 degrees colder than what is forecasted. Now forecasting publicly Ice/Mix for Saturday early next week. Theyre biting here in Beaumont.

[TexasBreeze]

@ Biggerbyte- Not sure why they took freezing rain out of the text forecast after it has been there already. A lot of times there are different thoughts between the different work shift forecasters. It is not that they "see something" we don't, but more so of this kind of weather being relatively rare for our area. They hedge their bets till the time is closer. They don't always follow any one particular model for a forecast. They write their own forecast which is really the best way to go.

[txbear]

That's not how they work at all. I know a few of the forecasters there well. They'll always steer on the side of caution when it comes to hard freezes/mix precip down this way unless it's less than 3 days out with high confidence. Always best to be conservative when making those type of forecast down here along the coast, especially with models handling this setup very poorly, as is such with a shallow arctic airmass.

Also... you sure do have a lot of accounts you login from.


IMO, chances look relatively high (>60%) for some form of winter precip on President's Day. However, likely mainly in the form of sleet/freezing rain. Snow would be much nicer though. With that said, confidence looks high there will be a pretty deep snowpack building to our north and the pattern still looks pretty volatile through the rest of the month so anymore shots of cold air won't be as modified. Though I don't put much stock into what is going on beyond 3-4 days right now.

Hell, 3-4 days is probably pushing it lol I can’t even trust most models right now 12 hours out.

I would not touch this with a 10-foot pole until I am sure if I am the NWS. Too many things can go wrong. I think we will know more by Friday/Saturday on firm numbers and conviction..

My rule of thumb is to treat the precipitation side of the equation as if I were back in grade school. Don’t get your hopes up because it’s an uncertainty until it actually falls.

My comment on 105 was purely fun speculation with a weird sense of just a small dose of lack of sarcasm. Just a note to ponder.

[don]

JMO- I think we will see temps colder than what models are forecasting. We see it every time. Models have a hard time grasping cold air surges. Mets here in Beaumont are now including ice/mix on there 5 day with 24 as our lowest. Bet we see lows close to 20. Seems to always be 5 degrees colder than what is forecasted. Now forecasting publicly Ice/Mix for Saturday early next week. Theyre biting here in Beaumont.

Yep they are here also. Khou has a 40% of mix precip, and abc13 has a 60% of mix precip on Presidents day fwiw.

[DoctorMu]

What was January 10th?

Where everything was NORTH of a certain hwy

I'm in Louisiana, so I might not get it. LOL!

In College Station we had 5-6 inches of pure, heavy snow. Did not melt completely until Wednesday. The reverse of my avatar (December 24, 2004)

[DoctorMu]

How much snow is the 18z GFS depicting for the city of Houston on Monday?

Oh, boy.

Is that 4inches?

Could be ice and sleet.

[Rip76]

Ok long day at work.
Something going on?

[Kingwood36]

Ok long day at work.
Something going on?

Nah..not really

[Kingwood36]

0z ICON is colder than the previous 12z run and it has a significant winter storm across the state on Monday.

[txsnowmaker]

0z ICON is colder than the previous 12z run and it has a significant winter storm across the state on Monday.

As to the winter storm, do you have a link and/or can you expand on what it shows for Houston?

[Cpv17]

The ICON has gone bananas with the cold again.

[Kingwood36]

0z ICON is colder than the previous 12z run and it has a significant winter storm across the state on Monday.

Do you have a link and/or can you expand on what it shows for Houston?

Here is the temps so far

[txsnowmaker]

0z ICON is colder than the previous 12z run and it has a significant winter storm across the state on Monday.

Do you have a link and/or can you expand on what it shows for Houston?

Here is the temps so far

Thanks! How about the winter storm part of it?

[walsean1]

This is my first time posting on the board. I have been following for a long time getting a lot of good information from all of the posters and Pro Mets. I live in Spring FM 2920/HWY 99 for proximity in regards to live weather observation.

[Kingwood36]

Do you have a link and/or can you expand on what it shows for Houston?

Here is the temps so far

Thanks! How about the winter storm part of it?

Waiting to get it lol

[Cpv17]

Here is the temps so far

Thanks! How about the winter storm part of it?

Waiting to get it lol

Just go on Tropical Tidbits and look for it lol

[Kingwood36]

Thanks! How about the winter storm part of it?

Waiting to get it lol

Just go on tropical tidbits and look for it lol

That's what I'm doing but my damn wifi is acting a damn fool lol

[Kingwood36]

[txsnowmaker]

Bring it!