February 2021: Arctic Outbreak/Warmup Begins
-
txsnowmaker
- Posts: 632
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 4:07 pm
- Location: SW Houston (Galleria area)
- Contact:
The Euro has been trash. Ukmet looks good for Houston if you like snow.
-
srainhoutx
- Site Admin
- Posts: 19616
- Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
- Location: Maggie Valley, NC
- Contact:
Keep an eye on early Saturday morning for the potential of some light freezing rain around SE Texas.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
-
srainhoutx
- Site Admin
- Posts: 19616
- Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
- Location: Maggie Valley, NC
- Contact:
Thursday morning weather briefing from Jeff:
A memorable arctic outbreak that may rival some of the historic cold air outbreaks in TX history is increasingly likely.
Very cold temperatures and several rounds of winter precipitation will result in prolonged hazards and challenges for the region and state.
Maximum cold weather preparations and precautions should be underway to mitigate property damage.
Surface boundary of modified arctic air has now progressed to the coast bringing much of SE TX into the 40’s Freezing line is close to the Brazos valley area and freezing rain has been in progress this morning over portions of central and north Texas right up to our northwest counties where temperatures are running 32-34 degrees. Think any freezing rain will remain just outside our counties, but will need to watch trends closely. TXDOT and DPS is report significant ice on roadways on both I-45, I-35, and HWY 6 just north of our area making travel to those areas difficult.
With lift increasing over the area today expect several rounds of showers and thunderstorms as an upper level trough approaches from the west. Temperatures will hold steady in the mid 40’s. Rain will continue into the evening and overnight and maybe even into Friday south of I-10 where drizzle and light rain could linger as the dry air has a hard time moving in. Temperatures through Saturday will be in the 30’s and 40’s and largely above freezing over much of the area. Air mass should dry out in the low level Friday afternoon and night.
Saturday:
A quick moving disturbance will move across SE TX and models are generating some light QPF. Think some of this may fall has a mix of light rain and sleet. Most of the area will be above freezing, so not expecting any impacts, but will need to watch these trends closely for any wet bulb effects or evaporative cooling that could cool the low level air mass.
Sunday:
Massive 1050mb+ arctic high builds southward into the Midwest and central plains pushing a strong “true” arctic air mass into the region. Upstream air mass in western Canada and Montana is in the -30’s and much of this air is coming down the plains. Arctic boundary should move off the coast late Sunday and the entire area will likely fall below freezing Sunday night with dangerous wind chills in the 10’s and 20’s. Expect 0 degree line to move into NW and NC TX on Monday with core of the arctic high over the Midwest and upstream temperatures into the -10’s and maybe even -20’s into OK…this is about as cold as one will ever see in the southern plains.
Monday:
Confidence is increasing that an upstream disturbance over the western US will move across TX. This disturbance will result in the formation of a coastal surface low that will bring moisture northward into the very cold air mass. Profiles continue to point toward a freezing rain and sleet event for all areas on Monday, even the coastal areas and down into portions of SC and S TX. Still a bit early to talk accumulations, but confidence is there that we will see accumulating ice from freezing rain and temperatures in the 20’s. Ground will be preconditioned by ongoing cold ahead of the precipitation onset and expect a rapid deterioration of travel conditions to the point of extreme difficulty during the day.
Tuesday:
Models have come into better agreement that extreme cold lingers into Tuesday and Tuesday AM may result in rare temperatures in this area. GFS and ECMWF have narrowed their wide spread and are starting to converge toward a low in the low 10’s as far south as I-10 and 1’s north of HWY 105 with near 20-25 all the way to the beaches…this will be a devastating cold not experienced in SE TX since December 1989. Ice and snow covered grounds will linger into Tuesday with likely significant travel impacts.
Wednesday:
Very cold air remains locked into place and another upper level disturbance looks to move across the area resulting in additional precipitation.
The prolonged nature of the very cold conditions combined with the winter precipitation is going to result in significant hazards across not only SE TX but the entire state. Property and economic losses have the potential to be substantial and widespread.
Preparations:
To be clear…this is not our “normal” freeze and maximum preparations and precautions will be required for this outbreak.
Protect all and any exposed pipes, shut off and drain sprinkler systems. Open cabinet doors and closet doors to get as much heat against outside facing wall pipes as possible starting Sunday night. In some cases the best course of action may be to shut off water to a structure and drain pipes overnight when water usage is low to avoid pipes freezing and bursting.
Heavily cover and protect any tropical vegetation, citrus, or vulnerable plants. Given the intensity and depth of the freezing conditions this will likely be a killing freeze for much of the tropical landscape of this region.
Pets and livestock should have proper shelter, feed, and water. Normal water supplies will likely freeze over including stock ponds and lakes.
Persons should plan to limit outdoor exposure Monday and Tuesday as wind chills will be dangerously cold for our region. Prolonged exposure could result in frostbite and hypothermia.
Detailed Forecast for Harris County:
Today: Cloudy with an 80% chance of showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures steady in the mid 40’s. N wind 10-15mph
Friday: Cloudy with a 30% chance of drizzle and light rain (especially in the morning). Low in the mid to upper 30’s and high in the mid 40’s. N wind 10-15mph
Saturday: Cloudy with a 20% chance of light rain or sleet. Low in the mid 30’s and high in the mid 40’s. N wind 10-15mph
Sunday: Cloudy with a 30% of rain, freezing rain, sleet or snow by evening. Temperatures falling into the 20’s by evening. N wind 10-20mph. Wind chills in the 10’s and 20’s.
Monday: Cloudy with a 70% chance of freezing rain, sleet and snow. Ice and snow accumulation is likely. Temperatures steady in the mid to upper 20’s. N wind 10-20mph. Wind chills 10’s.
Tuesday: Cloudy and very cold with near record lows. Low in the low to mid 10’s and high in the upper 20’s. N wind 5-10mph. Wind chill in the 1’s.
Wednesday: Cloudy with a 50% chance of precipitation. Low near 25 and high in the low 30’s. NE wind 5-10mph. Wind chill in the 1’s and 10’s.
A memorable arctic outbreak that may rival some of the historic cold air outbreaks in TX history is increasingly likely.
Very cold temperatures and several rounds of winter precipitation will result in prolonged hazards and challenges for the region and state.
Maximum cold weather preparations and precautions should be underway to mitigate property damage.
Surface boundary of modified arctic air has now progressed to the coast bringing much of SE TX into the 40’s Freezing line is close to the Brazos valley area and freezing rain has been in progress this morning over portions of central and north Texas right up to our northwest counties where temperatures are running 32-34 degrees. Think any freezing rain will remain just outside our counties, but will need to watch trends closely. TXDOT and DPS is report significant ice on roadways on both I-45, I-35, and HWY 6 just north of our area making travel to those areas difficult.
With lift increasing over the area today expect several rounds of showers and thunderstorms as an upper level trough approaches from the west. Temperatures will hold steady in the mid 40’s. Rain will continue into the evening and overnight and maybe even into Friday south of I-10 where drizzle and light rain could linger as the dry air has a hard time moving in. Temperatures through Saturday will be in the 30’s and 40’s and largely above freezing over much of the area. Air mass should dry out in the low level Friday afternoon and night.
Saturday:
A quick moving disturbance will move across SE TX and models are generating some light QPF. Think some of this may fall has a mix of light rain and sleet. Most of the area will be above freezing, so not expecting any impacts, but will need to watch these trends closely for any wet bulb effects or evaporative cooling that could cool the low level air mass.
Sunday:
Massive 1050mb+ arctic high builds southward into the Midwest and central plains pushing a strong “true” arctic air mass into the region. Upstream air mass in western Canada and Montana is in the -30’s and much of this air is coming down the plains. Arctic boundary should move off the coast late Sunday and the entire area will likely fall below freezing Sunday night with dangerous wind chills in the 10’s and 20’s. Expect 0 degree line to move into NW and NC TX on Monday with core of the arctic high over the Midwest and upstream temperatures into the -10’s and maybe even -20’s into OK…this is about as cold as one will ever see in the southern plains.
Monday:
Confidence is increasing that an upstream disturbance over the western US will move across TX. This disturbance will result in the formation of a coastal surface low that will bring moisture northward into the very cold air mass. Profiles continue to point toward a freezing rain and sleet event for all areas on Monday, even the coastal areas and down into portions of SC and S TX. Still a bit early to talk accumulations, but confidence is there that we will see accumulating ice from freezing rain and temperatures in the 20’s. Ground will be preconditioned by ongoing cold ahead of the precipitation onset and expect a rapid deterioration of travel conditions to the point of extreme difficulty during the day.
Tuesday:
Models have come into better agreement that extreme cold lingers into Tuesday and Tuesday AM may result in rare temperatures in this area. GFS and ECMWF have narrowed their wide spread and are starting to converge toward a low in the low 10’s as far south as I-10 and 1’s north of HWY 105 with near 20-25 all the way to the beaches…this will be a devastating cold not experienced in SE TX since December 1989. Ice and snow covered grounds will linger into Tuesday with likely significant travel impacts.
Wednesday:
Very cold air remains locked into place and another upper level disturbance looks to move across the area resulting in additional precipitation.
The prolonged nature of the very cold conditions combined with the winter precipitation is going to result in significant hazards across not only SE TX but the entire state. Property and economic losses have the potential to be substantial and widespread.
Preparations:
To be clear…this is not our “normal” freeze and maximum preparations and precautions will be required for this outbreak.
Protect all and any exposed pipes, shut off and drain sprinkler systems. Open cabinet doors and closet doors to get as much heat against outside facing wall pipes as possible starting Sunday night. In some cases the best course of action may be to shut off water to a structure and drain pipes overnight when water usage is low to avoid pipes freezing and bursting.
Heavily cover and protect any tropical vegetation, citrus, or vulnerable plants. Given the intensity and depth of the freezing conditions this will likely be a killing freeze for much of the tropical landscape of this region.
Pets and livestock should have proper shelter, feed, and water. Normal water supplies will likely freeze over including stock ponds and lakes.
Persons should plan to limit outdoor exposure Monday and Tuesday as wind chills will be dangerously cold for our region. Prolonged exposure could result in frostbite and hypothermia.
Detailed Forecast for Harris County:
Today: Cloudy with an 80% chance of showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures steady in the mid 40’s. N wind 10-15mph
Friday: Cloudy with a 30% chance of drizzle and light rain (especially in the morning). Low in the mid to upper 30’s and high in the mid 40’s. N wind 10-15mph
Saturday: Cloudy with a 20% chance of light rain or sleet. Low in the mid 30’s and high in the mid 40’s. N wind 10-15mph
Sunday: Cloudy with a 30% of rain, freezing rain, sleet or snow by evening. Temperatures falling into the 20’s by evening. N wind 10-20mph. Wind chills in the 10’s and 20’s.
Monday: Cloudy with a 70% chance of freezing rain, sleet and snow. Ice and snow accumulation is likely. Temperatures steady in the mid to upper 20’s. N wind 10-20mph. Wind chills 10’s.
Tuesday: Cloudy and very cold with near record lows. Low in the low to mid 10’s and high in the upper 20’s. N wind 5-10mph. Wind chill in the 1’s.
Wednesday: Cloudy with a 50% chance of precipitation. Low near 25 and high in the low 30’s. NE wind 5-10mph. Wind chill in the 1’s and 10’s.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 4495
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
XUS64 KHGX 111036
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
436 AM CST Thu Feb 11 2021
.SHORT TERM [Through Friday Night]...
**If traveling across northern parts of the Brazos Valley today
andtonight, be careful on bridges. There may be a few slick
spots should temperatures fall another couple degrees today**
Enhanced lift in association of upper trof over northern Mexico,
upper disturbances in the swly flow aloft and a moist srly flow
over the cold airmass at the sfc will aid in increasing precip
development today and tonight. There`s some instability aloft so
there will probably be some elevated tstms mixed in as well. Best
lift should be realized across the northern half of the CWA
between now and early evening closer the RRQ of upper jet and
convergent zone near H85. We will be closely monitoring temps in
the Brazos Valley today. Currently they`re in the 33-36F range and
doubt they`ll see much if any of a warm-up. Some guidance drops
the temps another few degrees. Should this occur, can`t rule out
some patches of ice on elevated bridges and surfaces. Think best
chances of this occurring will be just n/nw of our CWA, but too
close for comfort. Depending on trends, the dayshift may need to
evaluate the need for a winter wx advisory. Precip should mostly
taper off there early in the evening as it heads toward the
US59/I-69 corridor and eastward into the overnight hours. Bulk of
precip should end slightly after midnight, though fcst soundings
remain saturated in the llvls so would anticipate some areas of
drizzle continuing into Fri morning. Again...will need to keep a
close eye on this across the Brazos Valley as readings remain near
the freezing mark.
Sct areas of -ra/dz will probably persist into Friday across
southern parts of the region closer to the coast with continued
isentropic lift. Otherwise, cloudy and continued cold heading into
the weekend and into next week when the fun really begins... 47
.LONG TERM [Saturday through Wednesday Night]...
The main focus in the long term continues to be a prolonged
period of well-below temperatures and multiple chances for mixed
precipitation.
The Arctic blast is on the way with the coldest readings expected
after Sunday. Latest forecast guidance keeps the strong surface
high building over west/central Canada through Saturday, shifting
southward into the Plains Sunday through much of next week.
Temperatures were adjusted a few degrees colder than NBM guidance
and went fairly close to the 10th-25th percentile through the
period.
There are multiple rounds of precipitation during the period. The
first mid-upper level wave arrives Saturday into early Sunday.
While dynamics largely remain west and north of the area in terms
of legitimate precipitation, the system will drive a decent PV
anomaly enough to produce precipitation. At the moment, thermal
profiles would support rain as the primary p-type. While
confidence is low, a brief window of patchy freezing drizzle will
be possible across our far northwestern counties early Saturday
morning and early Sunday.
Attention then turns to a more potent system tracking across the
Rockies from the Pacific Northwest on Sunday. Latest guidance
suggests a slightly weaker system compared to previous runs;
however, models are in good agreement on its phase/timing. In
fact, models are now bringing a more progressive low, bringing
precipitation as early as Sunday night, moving out of our region
by early Monday evening. There is still a lot of uncertainty with
this system, though this storm has the potential to bring an
assortment of hazards, including rain, freezing rain, sleet, snow
and wind. Given warm air aloft, a wintry mix looks possible,
mainly across our half southern counties (mainly south of I-10).
Timing will be very important! If precipitation moves quick enough
to make it across southern/coastal areas before temps cool
near/below freezing, then rain/freezing rain/sleet will be
favored. Will continue to monitor different factors such as wet
bulb temperatures, lifting aloft and timing of stronger CAA
filtering in behind the system. Strong lift could result in
stronger cooling and a more rapid changeover to snow. No matter
the type of precipitation, a hazardous morning commute looks
possible.
Beyond Monday...models show another system with a potential for
winter weather conditions on Wednesday, but there is too much
uncertainty this far out.
Key Messages:
1) An extended period of well-below normal temperatures is
expected this week into next week. Wind chill values may drop into
the teens and single digits at times.
2) Precipitation chances continue to increase now from Sunday
into early next week with a potential for a wintry mix. Confidence
remains low on the type of precipitation.
3) Stay weather aware and prepared. We encourage you to begin
preparing for these conditions including winterizing your homes.
Continue to monitor the forecast over the next days for the latest
information and/or possible headlines.
05
&&
.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...
Not anticipating a whole lot of change in regards to flying
conditions for the next 24+ hours with IFR to LIFR conditions
prevailing thru the period. Areas of rain and embedded tstms
will be increasing in coverage today and tonight. 47
&&
.MARINE...
Issued a SCA for the waters as northerly winds increase and seas
build today and tonight. Suspect a combination of SCECs/SCAs will
be needed thru the weekend. Increased winds and lower dewpoints
have allowed for improvement in visibilities. Still anticipate
some 2-6nm vsbys thru the day, but the threat of the dense variety
is mostly gone and allow for ship commerce to resume in the near
future.
Unsettled weather will persist into next week with moderate to
strong north and northeast winds, elevated seas, periods of
precipitation...some of which cold be in the form of a wintery mix
Sunday night and Monday. Gale conditions are looking increasingly
probable at that time as well. Expect temperatures to be on a
steady decline into mid next week with bitterly cold conditions
prevailing. 47
&&
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 36 33 40 33 38 / 80 70 20 10 20
Houston (IAH) 46 39 45 36 43 / 70 70 40 20 20
Galveston (GLS) 52 44 47 39 47 / 60 80 50 30 20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 3 PM CST this
afternoon for the following zones: Galveston
Bay...Matagorda Bay.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM CST Friday for the following
zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship
Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island to
Freeport TX out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport to Matagorda
Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island
to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...47
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...47
MARINE...47
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
436 AM CST Thu Feb 11 2021
.SHORT TERM [Through Friday Night]...
**If traveling across northern parts of the Brazos Valley today
andtonight, be careful on bridges. There may be a few slick
spots should temperatures fall another couple degrees today**
Enhanced lift in association of upper trof over northern Mexico,
upper disturbances in the swly flow aloft and a moist srly flow
over the cold airmass at the sfc will aid in increasing precip
development today and tonight. There`s some instability aloft so
there will probably be some elevated tstms mixed in as well. Best
lift should be realized across the northern half of the CWA
between now and early evening closer the RRQ of upper jet and
convergent zone near H85. We will be closely monitoring temps in
the Brazos Valley today. Currently they`re in the 33-36F range and
doubt they`ll see much if any of a warm-up. Some guidance drops
the temps another few degrees. Should this occur, can`t rule out
some patches of ice on elevated bridges and surfaces. Think best
chances of this occurring will be just n/nw of our CWA, but too
close for comfort. Depending on trends, the dayshift may need to
evaluate the need for a winter wx advisory. Precip should mostly
taper off there early in the evening as it heads toward the
US59/I-69 corridor and eastward into the overnight hours. Bulk of
precip should end slightly after midnight, though fcst soundings
remain saturated in the llvls so would anticipate some areas of
drizzle continuing into Fri morning. Again...will need to keep a
close eye on this across the Brazos Valley as readings remain near
the freezing mark.
Sct areas of -ra/dz will probably persist into Friday across
southern parts of the region closer to the coast with continued
isentropic lift. Otherwise, cloudy and continued cold heading into
the weekend and into next week when the fun really begins... 47
.LONG TERM [Saturday through Wednesday Night]...
The main focus in the long term continues to be a prolonged
period of well-below temperatures and multiple chances for mixed
precipitation.
The Arctic blast is on the way with the coldest readings expected
after Sunday. Latest forecast guidance keeps the strong surface
high building over west/central Canada through Saturday, shifting
southward into the Plains Sunday through much of next week.
Temperatures were adjusted a few degrees colder than NBM guidance
and went fairly close to the 10th-25th percentile through the
period.
There are multiple rounds of precipitation during the period. The
first mid-upper level wave arrives Saturday into early Sunday.
While dynamics largely remain west and north of the area in terms
of legitimate precipitation, the system will drive a decent PV
anomaly enough to produce precipitation. At the moment, thermal
profiles would support rain as the primary p-type. While
confidence is low, a brief window of patchy freezing drizzle will
be possible across our far northwestern counties early Saturday
morning and early Sunday.
Attention then turns to a more potent system tracking across the
Rockies from the Pacific Northwest on Sunday. Latest guidance
suggests a slightly weaker system compared to previous runs;
however, models are in good agreement on its phase/timing. In
fact, models are now bringing a more progressive low, bringing
precipitation as early as Sunday night, moving out of our region
by early Monday evening. There is still a lot of uncertainty with
this system, though this storm has the potential to bring an
assortment of hazards, including rain, freezing rain, sleet, snow
and wind. Given warm air aloft, a wintry mix looks possible,
mainly across our half southern counties (mainly south of I-10).
Timing will be very important! If precipitation moves quick enough
to make it across southern/coastal areas before temps cool
near/below freezing, then rain/freezing rain/sleet will be
favored. Will continue to monitor different factors such as wet
bulb temperatures, lifting aloft and timing of stronger CAA
filtering in behind the system. Strong lift could result in
stronger cooling and a more rapid changeover to snow. No matter
the type of precipitation, a hazardous morning commute looks
possible.
Beyond Monday...models show another system with a potential for
winter weather conditions on Wednesday, but there is too much
uncertainty this far out.
Key Messages:
1) An extended period of well-below normal temperatures is
expected this week into next week. Wind chill values may drop into
the teens and single digits at times.
2) Precipitation chances continue to increase now from Sunday
into early next week with a potential for a wintry mix. Confidence
remains low on the type of precipitation.
3) Stay weather aware and prepared. We encourage you to begin
preparing for these conditions including winterizing your homes.
Continue to monitor the forecast over the next days for the latest
information and/or possible headlines.
05
&&
.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...
Not anticipating a whole lot of change in regards to flying
conditions for the next 24+ hours with IFR to LIFR conditions
prevailing thru the period. Areas of rain and embedded tstms
will be increasing in coverage today and tonight. 47
&&
.MARINE...
Issued a SCA for the waters as northerly winds increase and seas
build today and tonight. Suspect a combination of SCECs/SCAs will
be needed thru the weekend. Increased winds and lower dewpoints
have allowed for improvement in visibilities. Still anticipate
some 2-6nm vsbys thru the day, but the threat of the dense variety
is mostly gone and allow for ship commerce to resume in the near
future.
Unsettled weather will persist into next week with moderate to
strong north and northeast winds, elevated seas, periods of
precipitation...some of which cold be in the form of a wintery mix
Sunday night and Monday. Gale conditions are looking increasingly
probable at that time as well. Expect temperatures to be on a
steady decline into mid next week with bitterly cold conditions
prevailing. 47
&&
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 36 33 40 33 38 / 80 70 20 10 20
Houston (IAH) 46 39 45 36 43 / 70 70 40 20 20
Galveston (GLS) 52 44 47 39 47 / 60 80 50 30 20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 3 PM CST this
afternoon for the following zones: Galveston
Bay...Matagorda Bay.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM CST Friday for the following
zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship
Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island to
Freeport TX out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport to Matagorda
Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island
to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...47
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...47
MARINE...47
-
MontgomeryCoWx
- Posts: 2356
- Joined: Wed Dec 14, 2011 4:31 pm
- Location: Weimar, TX
- Contact:
I wasn't supposed to be at 34 this morning.. That was close to a surprise this morning.
Team #NeverSummer
Already down to 36 degrees here in central Wharton County. Feels like 25.
Checking-in just north of H-town.
I've noticed the wind has picked-up compared to yesterday. Models haven't changed much except the Euro is coming in-line with the GFS and the system is a little more progressive. It's something to watch because if we clear-out and calm down overnight Monday into Tue AM, those lows on the models may still be a touch too warm.
At this point, I'm rooting for the mother lode to come down. If I'm going to lose my garden, might as well make it worth it for the cold lovers. Plus, we were planning to finally put in the "Pool 2.0" this summer and totally landscape the back after five years of waiting. I don't have much to lose yet back there. I say let's get the cold blast of the century over with now and reset
It's going to be really sad when this is over though. The tropical plant/citrus/palm tree destruction is going to change the landscape, for sure here in Southeast Texas. It will take decades to recover. Just a reminder this is Southeast Texas, and not South Florida.
For that matter, areas to our north and west will be impacted too. Those brave souls who have planted Mexican Fan palms, etc., all up the I-35 corridor from San Antonio to Denton and the I-45/US-75 corridor from Houston to McKinney....you can kiss them goodbye unfortunately. The tropicals had a good run for 30+ years and it was fun to watch while it lasted.
PS: for those who are curious - this kind of cold is going to roast all the queen and pygmy date palms. Mexican fan palms, dates, Canary Island dates (aka "Pineapple palms"), and sago palms are definitely at risk, too. Even pindo palms and other "cold hardy" palms are at risk. The only ones making north of I-10 may be sabal palms, windmill palms, European fan palms, and scrub/saw palmetto.
This is a good chart: https://realpalmtrees.com/knowledge-bas ... alm-trees/
I've noticed the wind has picked-up compared to yesterday. Models haven't changed much except the Euro is coming in-line with the GFS and the system is a little more progressive. It's something to watch because if we clear-out and calm down overnight Monday into Tue AM, those lows on the models may still be a touch too warm.
At this point, I'm rooting for the mother lode to come down. If I'm going to lose my garden, might as well make it worth it for the cold lovers. Plus, we were planning to finally put in the "Pool 2.0" this summer and totally landscape the back after five years of waiting. I don't have much to lose yet back there. I say let's get the cold blast of the century over with now and reset
It's going to be really sad when this is over though. The tropical plant/citrus/palm tree destruction is going to change the landscape, for sure here in Southeast Texas. It will take decades to recover. Just a reminder this is Southeast Texas, and not South Florida.
For that matter, areas to our north and west will be impacted too. Those brave souls who have planted Mexican Fan palms, etc., all up the I-35 corridor from San Antonio to Denton and the I-45/US-75 corridor from Houston to McKinney....you can kiss them goodbye unfortunately. The tropicals had a good run for 30+ years and it was fun to watch while it lasted.
PS: for those who are curious - this kind of cold is going to roast all the queen and pygmy date palms. Mexican fan palms, dates, Canary Island dates (aka "Pineapple palms"), and sago palms are definitely at risk, too. Even pindo palms and other "cold hardy" palms are at risk. The only ones making north of I-10 may be sabal palms, windmill palms, European fan palms, and scrub/saw palmetto.
This is a good chart: https://realpalmtrees.com/knowledge-bas ... alm-trees/
Last edited by jasons2k on Thu Feb 11, 2021 8:35 am, edited 4 times in total.
-
Kingwood36
- Posts: 1592
- Joined: Sat Dec 29, 2018 10:29 am
- Location: Freeport
- Contact:
Looks like Austin and CS are getting in on some snow at the moment on radar..was that forecast to happen so early?
There goes the rain we need to get plant roots in order before we bundle everything up in a couple days.
-
srainhoutx
- Site Admin
- Posts: 19616
- Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
- Location: Maggie Valley, NC
- Contact:
I have seen a couple of reports just NW of Austin for sleet/snow, but the reports just N of BCS is light freezing rain. I suspect we will see reports inch closer to SE Texas the next couple of days as disturbances ripple along the SW flow aloft ahead of the big surge of Arctic air Saturday.Kingwood36 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 11, 2021 8:07 am Looks like Austin and CS are getting in on some snow at the moment on radar..was that forecast to happen so early?
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
I wonder how many screen names that guy can create? I guess he thinks we are stupid. lol
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biggerbyte
- Posts: 1142
- Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 12:15 am
- Location: Porter, Texas. (Montgomery County)
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NWS has completely removed any mention what so ever of frozen precipitation for the next few day, including Monday. It just says showers. What in the hurl?
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Kingwood36
- Posts: 1592
- Joined: Sat Dec 29, 2018 10:29 am
- Location: Freeport
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Still there for mebiggerbyte wrote: ↑Thu Feb 11, 2021 8:36 am NWS has completely removed any mention what so ever of frozen precipitation for the next few day, including Monday. It just says showers. What in the hurl?
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txsnowmaker
- Posts: 632
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 4:07 pm
- Location: SW Houston (Galleria area)
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Love Jeff’s forecast for likely accumulating snow next week for Harris County. It’s happening!
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Kingwood36
- Posts: 1592
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- Location: Freeport
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He said ice not snow..txsnowmaker wrote: ↑Thu Feb 11, 2021 8:42 am Love Jeff’s forecast for likely accumulating snow next week for Harris County. It’s happening!
"but confidence is there that we will see accumulating ice from freezing rain and temperatures in the 20’s"
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txsnowmaker
- Posts: 632
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 4:07 pm
- Location: SW Houston (Galleria area)
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Actually he forecasted accumulating snow...Kingwood36 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 11, 2021 8:44 amHe said ice not snow..txsnowmaker wrote: ↑Thu Feb 11, 2021 8:42 am Love Jeff’s forecast for likely accumulating snow next week for Harris County. It’s happening!
"but confidence is there that we will see accumulating ice from freezing rain and temperatures in the 20’s"
“ Monday: Cloudy with a 70% chance of freezing rain, sleet and snow. Ice and snow accumulation is likely. Temperatures steady in the mid to upper 20’s. N wind 10-20mph. Wind chills 10’s.”
He separately said the following:
“ice and snow covered grounds will linger into Tuesday with likely significant travel impacts.”
And with this forecast for Wednesday likely even more if it comes to pass:
“Wednesday: Cloudy with a 50% chance of precipitation. Low near 25 and high in the low 30’s. NE wind 5-10mph. Wind chill in the 1’s and 10’s.”
Temps continue to come in colder than the models are forecasting. If that keeps happening then there will be a better chance for snow for us. At least that’s how I think it’ll work.