February 2021: Arctic Outbreak/Warmup Begins

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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DoctorMu
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sambucol wrote: Thu Feb 18, 2021 12:39 pm
DoctorMu wrote: Thu Feb 18, 2021 12:01 pm
sambucol wrote: Thu Feb 18, 2021 11:55 am
I bought a Generac 22KW standby generator with an auto transition switch last March. Runs on natural gas. Ran the entire house through this ordeal.first outage was 24 hours. Then they were several hours. Several outages. Worth every penny.
Crunched the numbers again - need a 36W - 11K without installation.
I’m thinking you meant a 36kw generator. 22KW is the largest in the residential line, but they do have commercial ones that would most likely meet your need.

Right. 36kW. I'm finally off my phone. I saw a number of Generacs at that power level.


Snow on the radar. Mostly verga on the ground in College Station. I saw a few flakes an hour ago.
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nlosrgr8
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We have the big Generac whole House ...ran like a champ! It has provided us with a lot of peace of mind. If peace of mind is worth the price to you then you should invest. Be sure you keep up with the maintenance.
Wherever you go, no matter what the weather, always bring your own sunshine.
Anthony J. D'Angelo
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jasons2k
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BlueJay wrote: Thu Feb 18, 2021 10:33 am Thanks for this post Jason! Your story about your son's Yahtzee success made me smile! :)
Yeah, best part of the whole ordeal. Hehe. That and our little snowman.

Glad you made it through!
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tireman4
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000
FXUS64 KHGX 182338
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
538 PM CST Thu Feb 18 2021

.AVIATION [00Z TAF Issuance]...

Skies have scattered out IAH southward bringing VFR conditions
that will prevail for these sites through the rest of the period.
A band of clouds extends CXO northward continuing the MVFR
conditions there with CIGs around 1500-2000ft. However, these
clouds will erode through the night bringing VFR conditions to the
entire area by midnight. Tonight will be another very cold night
across the region, so icing will be a concern from any lingering
moisture. Northerly winds will prevail through the period with
sustained winds 15-20kts through sunset, then decreasing below
10kts by midnight for all sites but GLS which will have the
moderate flow through tomorrow. High pressure building over the
area tomorrow will mean the clearing skies and VFR conditions will
continue.

Fowler

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 343 PM CST Thu Feb 18 2021/...

.SHORT TERM [Friday Through Saturday Night]...

Snow flurries developed across the northern half of the area today
and these will end as drier air moves into the region from the NW.
With the drier air, skies will also begin to clear and once skies
clear and winds decouple, temperatures are going to take a tumble.
High pressure will build into West Texas and drift toward
east Texas toward morning. The cold air mass associated with the
high will once again settle over SE TX with MiNT values falling into
the teens over the north, low/mid 20`s central and south and low
30`s along the coast. A Hard Freeze Warning will remain in effect
tonight for most of SE TX with 6 to 8 hours of temperatures at or
below 25 degrees. A Wind Chill Advisory has also been issued
over the NW-W zones with WC values falling into the single digits
later tonight.

Friday will trend slightly warmer, or maybe it`ll just feel a bit
better with sunny skies and less wind. Surface high pressure will
settle directly over SE TX by Fri afternoon with MaxT values ranging
from the mid 30`s far NW zones to the mid 40`s far southern zones
and coast.

Another night of very cold temperatures is expected Fri Night into
Sat morning as the surface high drifts east. Clear skies, light
winds and dry air will allow ideal radiational cooling to commence
and produce MinT values near 20 degrees far NW zones and mid/upper
20`s elsewhere. A Hard freeze Watch is in effect for the NW zones
for tomorrow night. 43


.LONG TERM [Saturday Through Thursday]...

In what will be a welcomed change for SE TX, a warming trend is
expected heading into the weekend with an end to subfreezing
temperatures now in sight. As high pressure departs eastward and a
return to onshore winds allows for enhanced WAA, we should finally
break into the 50s on Saturday. While lows overnight will remain
below normal, it`ll be the first time in quite a while where no
subfreezing temperatures are anticipated across the entirety of SE
TX. The warming trend continues on Sunday with temperatures
pushing closer to near-seasonable values- the upper 50s across the
northern counties and low to mid 60s along the coast and in the
Houston metro.

The approach of a surface cold front on Sunday night/early Monday
morning will bring a slight cool-down to the area, though the
magnitude of this boundary passage will not come close to
approaching what we have seen over the past several days. Lows on
Sunday night dip back into the 30s/40s, though I have continued
not to carry any subfreezing temperatures in the forecast (though
CLL and surrounding areas will get close). Global models remain
bearish regarding the possibility of showers to encounter the
front, with the NAM/EC/GFS all indicating marginal QPF. Have
maintained slight chance PoPs as a result.

High pressure briefly enters the picture on Monday with offshore
winds providing CAA and allowing for daytime highs to return to
the 50s. However, this surface feature should depart quickly and a
return to southerlies can be expected on Tuesday afternoon.
Warming will continue into mid week with most locations seeing the
70s by Wednesday. A deepening lee cyclone may drag our next cold
front into SE TX on Thursday, though the timing of this feature
and magnitude of any associated precipitation looks more uncertain
for the time being.

Cady


.MARINE...

With a tight surface pressure gradient continuing to produce winds
of around 20 to 25 knots across the bays and coastal waters, the
Small Craft Advisories previously set to expire this afternoon
have been extended into the evening. Both winds and seas will be
on a downward trend tomorrow, decreasing below caution criteria
during the afternoon. Calmer conditions are expected through the
weekend as departing high pressure loosens the surface gradient
and an onshore flow pattern develops.

We are monitoring the potential for marine fog on Saturday evening
into Sunday. While probabilistic guidance does not indicate
reduced visibilities during this time, water temperatures are
currently low (46 degF at the Galveston Bay Entrance) which will
lend favorable to fog development if sufficient warming does not
occur prior to the development of onshore winds over the weekend.

A second but weaker surface cold front will approach the coastal
waters on Monday, after which winds and seas may increase as the
boundary departs. That being said, moderate offshore winds are
unlikely to persist for very long and any caution/advisory level
conditions should be short-lived.

Cady


.CLIMATE...

It`s been cold, really cold over the last seven days, but how does
it rank historically? Here is the average temperature for the four
first order climate sites over the last seven days (Feb 11 - Feb 17)

City of Houston

29.7 1895
30.1 1899
32.5 2021
38.6 1905
41.6 1958

City of Galveston

31.3 1895
37.6 1899
39.7 2021
40.1 1905
43.3 1958

College Station

24.6 1899
25.9 2021
29.1 1895
39.4 1958
41.9 2010

Houston Hobby

34.3 2021
41.6 1958
43.7 1963
44.5 2010
45.6 1981

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 17 35 20 48 38 / 0 0 0 0 10
Houston (IAH) 24 44 27 55 44 / 0 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 33 46 40 56 53 / 0 0 0 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...Hard Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CST Friday for
the following zones: Austin...Brazos...Burleson...Coastal
Brazoria...Coastal Jackson...Coastal
Matagorda...Colorado...Fort
Bend...Grimes...Houston...Inland Brazoria...Inland
Harris...Inland Jackson...Inland
Matagorda...Madison...Montgomery...Northern
Liberty...Polk...San
Jacinto...Trinity...Walker...Waller...Washington...Wharton.

Hard Freeze Watch from Friday evening through Saturday morning
for the following zones:
Austin...Brazos...Burleson...Colorado...Grimes...Houston...Madison...Trinity...Walker...Waller...Washington.

Wind Chill Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM CST Friday for
the following zones:
Austin...Brazos...Burleson...Colorado...Grimes...Houston...Madison...Montgomery...Trinity...Walker...Waller...Washington.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for the
following zones: Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay.

SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION through late tonight for the
following zones: Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Friday for the following
zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship
Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island to
Freeport TX out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport to Matagorda
Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island
to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.
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jasons2k
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Down to 29. I'm glad I drained my pipes again for tonight.
unome
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this thread, exactly: https://twitter.com/BillyForney3/status ... 0332223489

his is one of the most uplifting, always positive, community-oriented, weather-related Twitter feeds I read on a regular basis and he nailed how I feel in this situation perfectly.

Sometimes it helps to share/know others share your feelings of distress,. It seems to lighten the load, lessen the tightness in your chest, help unclench your jaw. There are millions of our fellow Texans feeling the same stress, I hope all our weather board posters and readers are making it through to the other side of this disaster - I wish you all well

Be Safe
Be Kind
Be Strong
CrashTestDummy
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cperk wrote: Thu Feb 18, 2021 11:18 am
TxLady wrote: Thu Feb 18, 2021 11:01 am
What brand is your generator?
I have a 20Kw Generac Brand.
If i had gas in my subdivision i would own one unfortunately we are all electric.
Are you sure you don't? We're all electric, and wanted to get a stand-by primarily for after hurricane outages. I discovered we had a gas line running across our front yard. Our installer managed getting the gas run to the house for the generator install. 100% turn-key. We got a 20Kw Kohler unit, and paid for the extended maintenance. I wanted the Easy Button while we could afford it.

We lost power Wednesday morning, and it was out until Wednesday night. Saw a couple of other neighbors bring portable generators in and set them up. One of our immdiate neighbors has a big water-cooled unit on their compound. Those are nice because they're so quiet.

Having that thing start right after our UPS started beeping, indicating our power had gone, was so nice to hear! As others say, it provided great peace of mind. It was something less to worry about through all this. We got ours installed now, since we're both still working, and could afford it. We discovered after Ike, that we could do without a lot of stuff, but water was not one of them, and the daily water/gas fetch process got old in a hurry. We have a well, so with power, we have water, and that's of primary importance.
Gene Beaird,
Pearland, Texas

"You can learn a lot from a Dummy."
BlueJay
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unome wrote: Fri Feb 19, 2021 5:20 am this thread, exactly: https://twitter.com/BillyForney3/status ... 0332223489

his is one of the most uplifting, always positive, community-oriented, weather-related Twitter feeds I read on a regular basis and he nailed how I feel in this situation perfectly.

Sometimes it helps to share/know others share your feelings of distress,. It seems to lighten the load, lessen the tightness in your chest, help unclench your jaw. There are millions of our fellow Texans feeling the same stress, I hope all our weather board posters and readers are making it through to the other side of this disaster - I wish you all well

Be Safe
Be Kind
Be Strong
Thanks unome. Well said.
btw, glad you're back in the forum.

Enjoy the SUNSHINE y'all! 8-)
redneckweather
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Kohler unit here at the house as well. It was recommended over the generac. Definitely a must if you can afford it.

The great thaw of 2021 begins today. Enjoy the sunshine everyone.
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jasons2k
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24.4 here this morning. Our friends in Austin still don’t have water. I’m glad things begin to warm up today. I’ve never been so ready for spring!!
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jasons2k
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It’s colder on Galveston island than it is in city (cold bay waters) - very unusual
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TxLady
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Fingers crossed this will be the last "Hard Freeze" of this event. I've got just about 1 more night's worth of energy to get up and run faucets, every few hours. I feel like I have a newborn baby, without the cuddles of having a newborn baby...This Grandma is getting too old for this! :D
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tireman4
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jasons2k wrote: Fri Feb 19, 2021 9:39 am 24.4 here this morning. Our friends in Austin still don’t have water. I’m glad things begin to warm up today. I’ve never been so ready for spring!!
Yeah, Porta is suffering terribly ( as well as other Austinites...Dan Rather says he is ok..)
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tireman4
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000
FXUS64 KHGX 192103
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
303 PM CST Fri Feb 19 2021

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday Night)

Although still chilly, conditions have begun to moderate with the
help of abundant sunshine this afternoon. One more night of
freezing temperatures is expected as high pressure settles over SE
TX. Will maintain the Hard Freeze Warning for the N-NW zones but
models have trended a bit warmer for tonight. The rest of SE
Texas will endure a short period of freezing temperatures tonight.
Not real confident with regard to some patchy ground fog that
could develop but the ECMWF, NAM soundings and SREF data support
some freezing fog toward Saturday morning. The T/Td gap narrows
considerably tonight and felt it was best to at least mention some
potential for freezing fog over the northern half of the CWA in
the weather grids.

The surface high will shift east of the region on Saturday with an
onshore flow developing. This will lead to warmer temperatures and
a slight increase in moisture. Should start to see an increase in
clouds by afternoon as the moisture deepens. MaxT values will warm
into the upper 50`s central and south and we have not been that
warm since February 10th. The northern zones will probably remain
in the 40`s. Warm air advection will persist into Saturday night
and low temperatures will probably occur in the evening and either
hold steady or slowly rise as onshore winds continue to draw low
level moisture into the area. The WAA pattern will allow for
patchy fog and perhaps some drizzle late Saturday night. 43

&&

.LONG TERM [Sunday Through Friday]...

Some long-awaited warmth finally arrives on Sunday, when the return
of onshore flow should continue to promote WAA and push highs into
the 60s across the majority of SE TX. As a deepening surface low
approaches the great plains region, a cold front extending from this
feature will push through the central CONUS during the day on Sunday
and approach SE TX on Sunday night. With the boundary pushing
offshore by Monday, along with some isolated showers along and ahead
of it, another cooldown is expected. Fortunately, this will not be
close in magnitude to what we`ve experienced this week. That being
said, northerly winds behind the departing boundary will allow for
enhanced CAA and thus lows in the upper 30s to low 40s are on tap
for Sunday night and into Monday morning.

High pressure settles into the South Central CONUS following the
departure of the surface cold front, though its presence will be
short lived as its center advances fairly quickly into the central
Gulf by Monday. With onshore flow redeveloping at this time, a warm-
up into mid week will finally give us our first taste of seasonable
weather in quite some time. High temperatures will push into the
mid/upper 60s at most locations on Tuesday and the 70s across much
of the area Wednesday. Increasing cloudiness associated with onshore
Gulf moisture transport will inhibit nocturnal cooling by mid-week,
with lows on Wednesday and Thursday remaining in the upper 40s/low
50s.

Our next shot at widespread measurable rainfall (and perhaps some
isolated thunderstorms) looks to arrive on Thursday as our next
surface cold front pushes towards SE TX. Global models still not
fully on board in depicting this event with EC showing a slower
fropa than most recent GFS & Canadian solutions, though each
solution indicates more robust precip coverage/QPF with this
next system.

Cady

&&

.MARINE...

With winds and seas diminishing this afternoon, cautions and
advisories have been allowed to expire as the surface pressure
gradient continues to loosen. Furthermore, we`ve allowed the Low
Water Advisory for Galveston Bay to expire with the expected
improvement in wind conditions and upon today`s high tide.
Conditions remain calm through the weekend before an approaching
cold front in the overnight hours of Sunday will leave another round
of moderate offshore winds and building seas in its wake. Despite
this, the boundary is expected to be weaker than that experienced
this week and as a result conditions are unlikely to exceed caution
thresholds. Onshore winds will quickly redevelop by late Monday as
high pressure behind the departing front shifts quickly towards the
Central Gulf.

Cady

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 22 48 41 59 35 / 0 0 0 10 10
Houston (IAH) 28 54 46 65 42 / 0 0 0 10 20
Galveston (GLS) 41 55 52 64 48 / 0 0 0 10 30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Hard Freeze Warning from 11 PM this evening to 9 AM CST Saturday
for the following zones: Austin...Brazos...Burleson...
Colorado...Grimes...Houston...Madison...Montgomery...Polk...
San Jacinto...Trinity...Walker...Waller...Washington.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$
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jasons2k
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Here is some info on plant survival from Frank's blog:

https://www.click2houston.com/weather/2 ... -survival/

Interesting tidbit about mosquitos too:
What about the SKEETERS?
So doesn’t a hard freeze like this kill mosquitoes for the upcoming summer? Can’t we get a break? I asked Rich Davis, Mr. Mosquito, who has the buzz:

“Unfortunately, it will not give us fewer mosquitoes this summer....the eggs lay dormant until the warmer, humid temperatures and then they hatch and breed.”
Last edited by jasons2k on Fri Feb 19, 2021 8:13 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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srainhoutx
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Interesting to read the ERCOT provided a 40 second public comment on February 9th about "winter weather" could impact Texas. Seems to me that the alarm bells were being sounded around the end of January to only increase in the very early days of February that something "Historic" was on the horizon. Everyone was impacted from this winter weather event including my Family. My 87 year old Mom was walking around a soggy apartment with wet shoes and soaked socks after the pipes froze and burst with no power until my Sister convinced her it was time to go. Those that mocked the CAT 5 potential were very irresponsible. Thankfully we have a incredibly knowledgeable Weather Community that offered fantastic sound advice to those that were searching for answers.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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jasons2k
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The disaster claims are also expected to surpass Harvey, becoming the costliest natural disaster in Texas history.
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jasons2k
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unome
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srainhoutx wrote: Fri Feb 19, 2021 8:05 pm Interesting to read the ERCOT provided a 40 second public comment on February 9th about "winter weather" could impact Texas. Seems to me that the alarm bells were being sounded around the end of January to only increase in the very early days of February that something "Historic" was on the horizon. Everyone was impacted from this winter weather event including my Family. My 87 year old Mom was walking around a soggy apartment with wet shoes and soaked socks after the pipes froze and burst with no power until my Sister convinced her it was time to go. Those that mocked the CAT 5 potential were very irresponsible. Thankfully we have a incredibly knowledgeable Weather Community that offered fantastic sound advice to those that were searching for answers.
So sorry to hear of everything your poor mom had to endure, Srain :( I hope things get better for her soon.

It was well forecast & we do have an incredible weather community here - thanks so much for your efforts to make this board a success, it has helped so many
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jasons2k
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One thing you have to wonder when comparing records against events like 1899 is also some of the anecdotal evidence. Back in 1899, portions of Galveston Bay froze over. Ice jams were reported on the Mississippi River down to New Orleans.

This event was close on paper, but nowhere near anything like those accounts. Just an observation.
Last edited by jasons2k on Fri Feb 19, 2021 9:24 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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