February 2021: Arctic Outbreak/Warmup Begins

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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jasons2k
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It’s colder on Galveston island than it is in city (cold bay waters) - very unusual
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TxLady
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Fingers crossed this will be the last "Hard Freeze" of this event. I've got just about 1 more night's worth of energy to get up and run faucets, every few hours. I feel like I have a newborn baby, without the cuddles of having a newborn baby...This Grandma is getting too old for this! :D
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tireman4
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jasons2k wrote: Fri Feb 19, 2021 9:39 am 24.4 here this morning. Our friends in Austin still don’t have water. I’m glad things begin to warm up today. I’ve never been so ready for spring!!
Yeah, Porta is suffering terribly ( as well as other Austinites...Dan Rather says he is ok..)
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tireman4
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000
FXUS64 KHGX 192103
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
303 PM CST Fri Feb 19 2021

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday Night)

Although still chilly, conditions have begun to moderate with the
help of abundant sunshine this afternoon. One more night of
freezing temperatures is expected as high pressure settles over SE
TX. Will maintain the Hard Freeze Warning for the N-NW zones but
models have trended a bit warmer for tonight. The rest of SE
Texas will endure a short period of freezing temperatures tonight.
Not real confident with regard to some patchy ground fog that
could develop but the ECMWF, NAM soundings and SREF data support
some freezing fog toward Saturday morning. The T/Td gap narrows
considerably tonight and felt it was best to at least mention some
potential for freezing fog over the northern half of the CWA in
the weather grids.

The surface high will shift east of the region on Saturday with an
onshore flow developing. This will lead to warmer temperatures and
a slight increase in moisture. Should start to see an increase in
clouds by afternoon as the moisture deepens. MaxT values will warm
into the upper 50`s central and south and we have not been that
warm since February 10th. The northern zones will probably remain
in the 40`s. Warm air advection will persist into Saturday night
and low temperatures will probably occur in the evening and either
hold steady or slowly rise as onshore winds continue to draw low
level moisture into the area. The WAA pattern will allow for
patchy fog and perhaps some drizzle late Saturday night. 43

&&

.LONG TERM [Sunday Through Friday]...

Some long-awaited warmth finally arrives on Sunday, when the return
of onshore flow should continue to promote WAA and push highs into
the 60s across the majority of SE TX. As a deepening surface low
approaches the great plains region, a cold front extending from this
feature will push through the central CONUS during the day on Sunday
and approach SE TX on Sunday night. With the boundary pushing
offshore by Monday, along with some isolated showers along and ahead
of it, another cooldown is expected. Fortunately, this will not be
close in magnitude to what we`ve experienced this week. That being
said, northerly winds behind the departing boundary will allow for
enhanced CAA and thus lows in the upper 30s to low 40s are on tap
for Sunday night and into Monday morning.

High pressure settles into the South Central CONUS following the
departure of the surface cold front, though its presence will be
short lived as its center advances fairly quickly into the central
Gulf by Monday. With onshore flow redeveloping at this time, a warm-
up into mid week will finally give us our first taste of seasonable
weather in quite some time. High temperatures will push into the
mid/upper 60s at most locations on Tuesday and the 70s across much
of the area Wednesday. Increasing cloudiness associated with onshore
Gulf moisture transport will inhibit nocturnal cooling by mid-week,
with lows on Wednesday and Thursday remaining in the upper 40s/low
50s.

Our next shot at widespread measurable rainfall (and perhaps some
isolated thunderstorms) looks to arrive on Thursday as our next
surface cold front pushes towards SE TX. Global models still not
fully on board in depicting this event with EC showing a slower
fropa than most recent GFS & Canadian solutions, though each
solution indicates more robust precip coverage/QPF with this
next system.

Cady

&&

.MARINE...

With winds and seas diminishing this afternoon, cautions and
advisories have been allowed to expire as the surface pressure
gradient continues to loosen. Furthermore, we`ve allowed the Low
Water Advisory for Galveston Bay to expire with the expected
improvement in wind conditions and upon today`s high tide.
Conditions remain calm through the weekend before an approaching
cold front in the overnight hours of Sunday will leave another round
of moderate offshore winds and building seas in its wake. Despite
this, the boundary is expected to be weaker than that experienced
this week and as a result conditions are unlikely to exceed caution
thresholds. Onshore winds will quickly redevelop by late Monday as
high pressure behind the departing front shifts quickly towards the
Central Gulf.

Cady

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 22 48 41 59 35 / 0 0 0 10 10
Houston (IAH) 28 54 46 65 42 / 0 0 0 10 20
Galveston (GLS) 41 55 52 64 48 / 0 0 0 10 30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Hard Freeze Warning from 11 PM this evening to 9 AM CST Saturday
for the following zones: Austin...Brazos...Burleson...
Colorado...Grimes...Houston...Madison...Montgomery...Polk...
San Jacinto...Trinity...Walker...Waller...Washington.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$
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jasons2k
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Here is some info on plant survival from Frank's blog:

https://www.click2houston.com/weather/2 ... -survival/

Interesting tidbit about mosquitos too:
What about the SKEETERS?
So doesn’t a hard freeze like this kill mosquitoes for the upcoming summer? Can’t we get a break? I asked Rich Davis, Mr. Mosquito, who has the buzz:

“Unfortunately, it will not give us fewer mosquitoes this summer....the eggs lay dormant until the warmer, humid temperatures and then they hatch and breed.”
Last edited by jasons2k on Fri Feb 19, 2021 8:13 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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srainhoutx
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Interesting to read the ERCOT provided a 40 second public comment on February 9th about "winter weather" could impact Texas. Seems to me that the alarm bells were being sounded around the end of January to only increase in the very early days of February that something "Historic" was on the horizon. Everyone was impacted from this winter weather event including my Family. My 87 year old Mom was walking around a soggy apartment with wet shoes and soaked socks after the pipes froze and burst with no power until my Sister convinced her it was time to go. Those that mocked the CAT 5 potential were very irresponsible. Thankfully we have a incredibly knowledgeable Weather Community that offered fantastic sound advice to those that were searching for answers.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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jasons2k
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The disaster claims are also expected to surpass Harvey, becoming the costliest natural disaster in Texas history.
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jasons2k
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unome
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srainhoutx wrote: Fri Feb 19, 2021 8:05 pm Interesting to read the ERCOT provided a 40 second public comment on February 9th about "winter weather" could impact Texas. Seems to me that the alarm bells were being sounded around the end of January to only increase in the very early days of February that something "Historic" was on the horizon. Everyone was impacted from this winter weather event including my Family. My 87 year old Mom was walking around a soggy apartment with wet shoes and soaked socks after the pipes froze and burst with no power until my Sister convinced her it was time to go. Those that mocked the CAT 5 potential were very irresponsible. Thankfully we have a incredibly knowledgeable Weather Community that offered fantastic sound advice to those that were searching for answers.
So sorry to hear of everything your poor mom had to endure, Srain :( I hope things get better for her soon.

It was well forecast & we do have an incredible weather community here - thanks so much for your efforts to make this board a success, it has helped so many
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jasons2k
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One thing you have to wonder when comparing records against events like 1899 is also some of the anecdotal evidence. Back in 1899, portions of Galveston Bay froze over. Ice jams were reported on the Mississippi River down to New Orleans.

This event was close on paper, but nowhere near anything like those accounts. Just an observation.
Last edited by jasons2k on Fri Feb 19, 2021 9:24 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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