MARCH 2021

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
txbear
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Thanks, jasons2k. Appreciate the context. A curious note is that the Panhandle and West Texas, etc also have the tradewinds blow out of the SW and W from the higher and drier elevations in Mexico and New Mexico as well (a lot more dry land to contend with).

But perhaps it has somewhat to do with a couple of things; 1) the boundaries between hot/dry and humid extend down the surface out there and are a bit more stark with less mixing and 2) the intensely higher humidity/dew points here suppress temps to the point of not being able to punch towers through the cap. Probably much more to do with the latter. My amateur postulation after having lived in both.

Yeah, definitely hoping for additional rain.
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jasons2k
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txbear wrote: Wed Mar 24, 2021 10:48 am Thanks, jasons2k. Appreciate the context. A curious note is that the Panhandle and West Texas, etc also have the tradewinds blow out of the SW and W from the higher and drier elevations in Mexico and New Mexico as well (a lot more dry land to contend with).

But perhaps it has somewhat to do with a couple of things; 1) the boundaries between hot/dry and humid extend down the surface out there and are a bit more stark with less mixing and 2) the intensely higher humidity/dew points here suppress temps to the point of not being able to punch towers through the cap. Probably much more to do with the latter. My amateur postulation after having lived in both.

Yeah, definitely hoping for additional rain.
Well, then we are getting into all sorts of subtleties that depend on the situation and we get into the actual meteorology.

I remember well - I took my first Met class at Texas Tech with Dr. Peterson. He said out there in Lubbock, as a general 'rule of thumb' in the springtime you needed a dew point of 50F or above for the environment to be conducive for thunderstorms. In short, what he was really saying is that if the dew point is above 50, you are going to be on the moist side of the dry line. But one of my biggest take-aways has been '50 -- only 50? Down in SE Texas you're gonna usually need mid 60's+ for any action.'

Why is that?

A big part of it is up there in the Panhandle and into OK, there is often a "triple point" centered around a low. The position of the low (to our NW) often means that flow into the low pressure, in the low and mid-layers, is from the southeast, off of the Gulf. It's relatively moist and unstable. All you need is some heating and/or a cold pocket to pass overhead and boom! You get the storms up there.

Keep in mind for as active as it gets up there in the Spring, they end-up with only 15-20" of rain for the year.

Down here, if the system is progressive, as the low moves across our longitude and passes to our north, the low-level and mid-level flow often shifts to the southwest. We become the victim of the cap and/or a pre-frontal trough with a SW wind shift. The position of that flow just depends on the trajectory of the system, whether or not it's positively or negatively-tilted on its approach, etc.

Speaking of the system tomorrow - my local NWS forecast has this through by 11am and they have lowered my rain chances. Any hopes of busting the cap seem to be dwindling.
txbear
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Definitely spot on with the triple-point. Any talk of that, and things always tend to get sporty in those parts. The shear and lift you can get around the triple point, or even just the dryline by itself, can really get things going. Dryline....now that's a term I haven't referenced in a long time.

No need to remind me of how actual little rainfall in total areas to the west of '35 really end up with; we had reservoirs drying up completely and water source scarcity was something else (still is, especially with the aquifers).

Great dialogue.
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Cromagnum
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Cap firmly in place over us. Little to no rain expected with today's front.
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don
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Yep looks like only streamer showers today.Whats interesting is that the last 24 hours models have gotten a little more aggressive with next weeks system.This weekend into next week we could get some much needed rain as models are in pretty good agreement with two slow moving fronts next week.The first one comes this Sunday and stalls over the area as a coastal low develops and rides the front producing widespread rain.Models are not showing anything significant at the moment but even an inch or two would be nice, we'll see not getting my hopes up yet...
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jasons2k
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0.00”

And to think several days back, today’s “midweek system” looked so promising. Lucy is hanging around...
txbear
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Big ole' goose egg, thanks cap. Talk about a huge swing from the forecast not so long ago.

And on queue, Dixie Alley looks to be rather sporty. Crazy to see how active that "Alley" has become, and I'm not sure that their geology allows for the construction of basements/cellars. Although there are those reinforced closets/rooms that can be incorporated into the main structure of the house.
Cromagnum
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Meanwhile, Dixie Alley is doing what it does best this time of year...
Cpv17
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The latest Euro has some nice rain for us Sunday into Monday morning.
Cpv17
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Zero agreement between the GFS and the Euro right now. Euro is a washout for Sunday into Monday. GFS barely has anything.
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DoctorMu
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jasons2k wrote: Thu Mar 25, 2021 11:04 am 0.00”

And to think several days back, today’s “midweek system” looked so promising. Lucy is hanging around...
0.5 inches Tuesday night/Wed am and 0.1 inch in the wee hours this am. Today's sun and low dewpoint dried things out fast. Maybe the weeds will finally die as the law dries, because pre-emergence, 5°F nights, and weed and feed darn sure haven't!

More horrible tornadoes in AL. Severe season has become more Southeast and earlier over the past 3 decades.
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DoctorMu
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The front looks like a bust tonight here in the Brazos Valley. Presumably Houston area as well.. Potential tornadoes in TN this afternoon.
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DoctorMu
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Bust. As expected here.

Some tornadoes trying to form near Memphis.
txbear
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These forecasts even just a few days out have been promising, only to walk on way back. Had steady 50% chance of storms, only to see that go poof to just showers...if that even happens.

Hot and disgusting out, and looks like that will be the norm minus the day or so we get after a front. All that moisture and nothing but the cap to show for it.
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DoctorMu
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Wind shift and line attempting to form just south of us. Boring here.
Cromagnum
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Looks like some rumble stuff approaching from the southwest side early this morning.

Well...that wound up being weak sauce. Every bit of that evaporated around me. Doesn't even look like my driveway got damp.
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jasons2k
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0.00” again

This is getting old, fast
TXWeatherMan
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I’m fine with no rain at my house for a bit. My backyard is finally drying out.
Cpv17
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I’m seeing a decent signal for rain and storms beginning about 11 or 12 days out from now. We’ll see.
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