April 2021

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
txbear
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Re: April 2021

Post by txbear » Wed Apr 14, 2021 7:52 am

DoctorMu wrote:
Tue Apr 13, 2021 9:16 pm
Late tonight and a cap-busting Friday are the best chances for rain around the Brazos Valley and Houston area.
Thanks for posting the AFD. Seems my hunch on the cap was trending in the right direction, and another day of the lid clamped down it seems. Saw a line making its way inland this morning, only to go poof.

Beaumont managed to bust on through though. Wow.

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djmike
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Re: April 2021

Post by djmike » Wed Apr 14, 2021 8:16 am

Man it just ain’t stopping in Beaumont.
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)

Cpv17
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Re: April 2021

Post by Cpv17 » Wed Apr 14, 2021 9:42 am

txbear wrote:
Wed Apr 14, 2021 7:52 am
DoctorMu wrote:
Tue Apr 13, 2021 9:16 pm
Late tonight and a cap-busting Friday are the best chances for rain around the Brazos Valley and Houston area.
Thanks for posting the AFD. Seems my hunch on the cap was trending in the right direction, and another day of the lid clamped down it seems. Saw a line making its way inland this morning, only to go poof.

Beaumont managed to bust on through though. Wow.
I think sometime after 5 today some of us might actually see something.

Cromagnum
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Re: April 2021

Post by Cromagnum » Wed Apr 14, 2021 1:46 pm

Severe Thunderstorm Watch hoisted.

SEL5

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 95 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 135 PM CDT Wed Apr 14 2021

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Extreme southwest Louisiana The Middle and Upper Texas Coastal Plains Coastal Waters

* Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 135 PM until 800 PM CDT.

* Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

SUMMARY...Widely scattered thunderstorm development is expected by mid afternoon from the Middle Texas Coastal Plain northeastward to extreme southwest Louisiana. The storm environment will favor a mix of multicell clusters and some supercell structures, with an attendant threat for large hail and isolated damaging gusts into this evening.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 30 statute miles either side of a line from 55 miles southwest of Victoria TX to 40 miles east of Port Arthur TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes.

&&

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 27015.

...Thompson

Cromagnum
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Re: April 2021

Post by Cromagnum » Wed Apr 14, 2021 1:47 pm

Accompanying MCD discussion.

Mesoscale Discussion 0382 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 PM CDT Wed Apr 14 2021

Areas affected...portions of the Texas Coastal Plain

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 141743Z - 141945Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Storm development over the next couple of hours will be accompanied by some increase in risk for large hail and locally strong/damaging wind gusts through this afternoon. A WW may be required.

DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis shows a cold front across western portions of the Texas Coastal Plain/eastern fringes of the Hill Country, and then westward into the Edwards Plateau. Meanwhile, a sea-breeze boundary has pushed into coastal counties, with high theta-e marine air along and east of this boundary.

Though capping (near 700 mb) remains established across the area, continued heating/mixing of the boundary layer will weaken the cap locally -- particularly near the aforementioned surface boundaries where ascent is locally maximized. With steep lapse rates overlying this region above the capping layer, the destabilizing environment -- represented by mixed-layer CAPE values now in excess of 2500 J/kg across the region per RUC-based objective analyses -- combined with the weakening cap will support local/robust updraft development.

While deep-layer shear is not excessive, partially owing to modest low-level flow, ample (around 30 kt) mid-level west-southwesterlies are contributing to shear sufficient for multicell organization, and even some mid-level updraft rotation. As such, potential for hail and/or locally strong outflow winds will be possible with a few of the strongest storms. We will continue to monitor development, for signs that convective development/coverage may warrant WW issuance.

..Goss/Thompson.. 04/14/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX...

LAT...LON 29279811 29559761 29829683 29909598 30189492 29659475 28749616 28169709 28299783 28449828 28839839 29279811

Cromagnum
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Re: April 2021

Post by Cromagnum » Wed Apr 14, 2021 2:40 pm

It's revving up near Sugarland.

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DoctorMu
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Re: April 2021

Post by DoctorMu » Wed Apr 14, 2021 3:18 pm

The radar is blowing up in south Houston and another cell just south of Richmond.

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DoctorMu
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Re: April 2021

Post by DoctorMu » Wed Apr 14, 2021 4:37 pm

DoctorMu wrote:
Wed Apr 14, 2021 3:18 pm
The radar is blowing up in south Houston and another cell just south of Richmond.
Revenge of The Cap. The cap appears to be winning again, beating down the t-storms in the waning sun.

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don
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Re: April 2021

Post by don » Wed Apr 14, 2021 5:41 pm

These thunderstorms today have been nearly stationary along the stalled frontal boundary.The ship channel area has already picked up 2-3 inches of rain this afternoon.More thunderstorms are starting to redevelop along the boundary this evening and moving into metro Houston. :)

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Re: April 2021

Post by Cromagnum » Wed Apr 14, 2021 8:01 pm

DoctorMu wrote:
Wed Apr 14, 2021 4:37 pm
DoctorMu wrote:
Wed Apr 14, 2021 3:18 pm
The radar is blowing up in south Houston and another cell just south of Richmond.
Revenge of The Cap. The cap appears to be winning again, beating down the t-storms in the waning sun.
It's won most of the battle so far

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